Alexis Liebano — OGILVIE

Alexis Liebano P Visalia Rawhide

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.88

FIP5.88

K%17.1%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%1.8%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs Black	6	0	9	29	7	1	0	0%	1.4	24.1%	3.4%	20.7%	0.0%	1.04	1.50	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs Black	6	0	9	29	7	1	0	0%	1.4	24.1%	3.4%	20.7%	0.0%	1.04	1.83	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Black	14	1	30	150	26	29	2	7%	2.1	11.8%	24.2%	-12.4%	1.8%	7.80	6.15	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Black	14	1	30	150	26	29	2	7%	2.1	11.8%	24.2%	-12.4%	1.8%	7.80	6.15	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs Black	14	1	30	150	26	29	2	7%	2.1	17.3%	19.3%	-2.0%	1.3%	7.80	5.13	—
2024	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	34	0	35	159	48	17	6	0%	1.0	22.3%	12.6%	9.7%	4.5%	5.60	5.25	—
2024	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	34	0	35	159	48	17	6	0%	1.0	22.3%	12.6%	9.7%	4.5%	5.60	5.25	—
2024	21	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	34	0	35	159	48	17	6	0%	1.0	30.2%	10.7%	19.5%	3.8%	5.60	4.03	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	45	210	36	30	11	0%	1.2	12.9%	16.6%	-3.7%	6.1%	7.05	7.46	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	45	210	36	30	11	0%	1.2	12.9%	16.6%	-3.7%	6.1%	7.05	7.46	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	45	210	36	30	11	0%	1.2	17.1%	14.3%	2.9%	5.2%	7.05	6.70	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	32	0	42	196	61	20	5	0%	1.3	19.3%	11.6%	7.8%	3.4%	5.10	4.80	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	32	0	42	196	61	20	5	0%	1.3	19.3%	11.6%	7.8%	3.4%	5.10	4.80	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	ARI	24	0	32	153	40	15	4	0%	1.3	26.1%	9.8%	16.3%	2.6%	5.01	3.57	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	ARI	8	0	10	43	21	5	1	0%	1.2	48.8%	11.6%	37.2%	2.3%	5.40	1.73	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	ARI	40	0	42	179	34	24	6	0%	1.1	18.9%	13.4%	5.5%	3.4%	5.55	5.44	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	ARI	17	0	18	76	14	10	3	0%	1.1	18.9%	13.4%	5.5%	3.4%	5.55	5.44	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	77	14	10	3	0%	1.1	18.9%	13.4%	5.5%	3.4%	5.55	5.06	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	154	110	33	0%	1.1	18.9%	13.4%	5.5%	3.4%	5.55	5.06	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		123	1	161	744	125	115	29	1%	1.3	16.8%	15.4%	1.4%	3.9%	6.04	5.79	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		153	1	200	924	156	143	36	1%	1.3	16.8%	15.4%	1.4%	3.9%	6.04	5.79	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alexis Liebano (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.88	17.1%	15.3%	3.5%	—	5.44	18.9%	5.5%	42	-0.44	—	—	—
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	90
Jason Ruffcorn R 2021 · 4.74 FIP	23	SU	4.74	16.6%	14.2%	2.3%	.297	4.69	17.6%	4.2%	136	-0.05	4.01	280	89
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	89
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	89
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	89
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	87
Alec Kenilvort R 2016 · 6.44 FIP	23	SU	6.44	15.1%	17.0%	4.5%	.333	3.97	18.3%	9.1%	85	-2.47	2.97	109	87
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	87
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	86
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	86
Zack Hess R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.47	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.47	5.00	101	86
Brooks Crawford R 2019 · 4.78 FIP	22	SU	4.78	14.9%	13.7%	2.2%	.262	3.56	22.1%	14.5%	103	-1.22	2.50	296	86
Kieran Lovegrove R 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.9%	12.6%	3.2%	.273	4.46	19.3%	4.5%	76	-0.46	3.79	215	85
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	85
Jacinto Arredondo R 2021 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	14.4%	12.7%	2.6%	.310	4.89	15.7%	5.0%	50	-0.04	4.89	101	85
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	85
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	85
Derrik Watson R 2018 · 5.70 FIP	23	SU	5.70	16.9%	15.7%	3.7%	.344	4.12	20.0%	2.2%	80	-1.58	3.84	132	85
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	85
Tyler Ras R 2022 · 6.07 FIP	22	SU	6.07	15.7%	13.3%	4.8%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	119	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	33	18.2%	14.1%	1.32	5.67
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14