Cole Ayers — OGILVIE

Cole Ayers P Somerset Patriots

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.98

FIP4.98

K%19.0%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%6.8%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	13	0	19	89	17	11	2	0%	1.5	13.0%	15.4%	-2.5%	3.0%	5.68	5.58	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	13	0	19	89	17	11	2	0%	1.5	19.1%	12.4%	6.7%	2.2%	5.68	4.42	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	64	275	86	23	5	0%	1.4	23.4%	9.8%	13.6%	2.2%	3.64	3.58	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	64	275	86	23	5	0%	1.4	23.4%	9.8%	13.6%	2.2%	3.64	3.58	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	64	275	86	23	5	0%	1.4	31.3%	8.4%	22.9%	1.8%	3.64	2.51	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	64	268	78	26	6	0%	1.5	22.1%	9.9%	12.3%	2.6%	3.36	3.91	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	64	268	78	26	6	0%	1.5	22.1%	9.9%	12.3%	2.6%	3.36	3.91	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	64	268	78	26	6	0%	1.5	29.1%	9.7%	19.4%	2.2%	3.36	3.10	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	1	39	175	34	23	3	3%	1.2	15.2%	15.6%	-0.5%	2.3%	4.42	5.04	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	1	39	175	34	23	3	3%	1.2	15.2%	15.6%	-0.5%	2.3%	4.42	5.04	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	1	39	175	34	23	3	3%	1.2	19.4%	13.1%	6.3%	1.7%	4.42	4.13	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	NYY	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	19.0%	12.2%	6.8%	2.8%	4.98	4.98	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	NYY	54	0	57	241	47	29	7	0%	1.1	19.4%	12.0%	7.4%	2.9%	4.94	4.96	-0.3
2028	28	MLB MLE	NYY	53	0	55	233	46	28	7	0%	1.0	19.6%	11.9%	7.7%	3.0%	4.95	4.99	-0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	NYY	20	0	21	89	17	11	3	0%	1.1	19.4%	12.0%	7.4%	2.9%	4.94	4.96	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	NYY	31	0	33	139	27	17	4	0%	1.1	19.6%	11.9%	7.7%	3.0%	4.95	4.99	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	0	54	229	45	27	7	0%	1.0	19.5%	11.9%	7.6%	3.0%	4.95	4.60	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	166	99	26	0%	1.1	19.5%	11.9%	7.6%	3.0%	4.95	4.60	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		134	1	186	807	162	94	20	1%	1.4	20.0%	11.7%	8.3%	2.4%	3.91	4.22	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		144	1	200	866	174	101	21	1%	1.4	20.0%	11.7%	8.3%	2.4%	3.91	4.22	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cole Ayers (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	19.0%	12.2%	2.8%	—	4.97	19.5%	7.6%	112	-0.01	—	—	—
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	87
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	87
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	87
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	86
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	86
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	86
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	86
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	85
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	85
Jake Johansen R 2017 · 4.65 FIP	26	SU	4.65	15.9%	12.1%	2.5%	.273	3.65	12.8%	4.9%	48	-1.00	3.65	162	85
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	85
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	85
Matt Wivinis R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	19.5%	12.2%	1.5%	.262	5.95	14.5%	6.2%	17	+2.11	1.61	124	85
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	84
Guido Knudson R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SU	4.69	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	84
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	84
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	84
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	84
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	84
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	19.4%	12.0%	1.14	4.95
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84