Jaitoine Kelly — OGILVIE

Jaitoine Kelly P Visalia Rawhide

Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 257 lbs A peak 0.3 · 2028

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 27 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%19.9%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%8.0%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL5050

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	11	10	37	176	35	33	3	91%	3.4	13.5%	23.4%	-9.9%	2.7%	6.08	6.38	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	11	10	37	176	35	33	3	91%	3.4	13.5%	23.4%	-9.9%	2.7%	6.08	6.38	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	11	10	37	176	35	33	3	91%	3.4	19.9%	18.8%	1.1%	1.7%	6.08	4.94	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	8	37	150	28	11	1	89%	4.1	12.9%	9.1%	3.8%	1.2%	4.86	3.82	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	8	37	150	28	11	1	89%	4.1	12.9%	9.1%	3.8%	1.2%	4.86	3.82	—
2025	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	8	37	150	28	11	1	89%	4.1	18.7%	7.3%	11.3%	0.7%	4.86	2.83	—
2026	19	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	3	3	8	45	9	7	3	100%	2.8	20.0%	15.6%	4.4%	6.7%	9.72	7.04	—
2026	19	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	3	3	8	45	9	7	3	100%	2.8	20.0%	15.6%	4.4%	6.7%	9.72	7.04	—
2026	19	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	3	3	8	45	9	7	3	100%	2.8	20.0%	15.6%	4.4%	6.7%	9.72	8.14	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	ARI	5	5	27	114	23	14	3	100%	5.4	19.9%	11.9%	8.0%	3.0%	4.94	4.94	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	ARI	6	6	35	148	31	16	4	100%	5.8	20.9%	10.9%	10.0%	2.9%	4.76	4.69	+0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	ARI	3	3	17	72	15	8	2	100%	5.7	20.9%	10.9%	10.0%	2.9%	4.76	4.69	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	17	73	15	8	2	100%	4.3	20.9%	10.9%	10.0%	2.9%	4.76	4.31	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	41	200	844	174	93	23	100%	4.8	20.9%	10.9%	10.0%	2.9%	4.76	4.31	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		23	21	82	371	52	62	9	91%	3.6	14.1%	16.7%	-2.6%	2.5%	5.90	5.43	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	51	200	901	127	150	23	91%	3.6	14.1%	16.7%	-2.6%	2.5%	5.90	5.43	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jaitoine Kelly (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	19.9%	11.9%	3.0%	—	4.69	20.9%	10.0%	35	-0.25	—	—	—
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	88
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	88
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	86
Randry De Leon R 2024 · 4.49 FIP	19	SP	4.49	18.0%	11.5%	2.6%	.284	5.01	18.6%	1.6%	80	+0.52	4.37	153	85
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	85
Adrian Heredia R 2024 · 3.77 FIP	19	SP	3.77	21.6%	12.8%	1.6%	.300	5.38	14.9%	1.8%	104	+1.61	3.34	149	85
Ulices Campos R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	20	SP-	4.58	17.9%	11.5%	2.8%	.253	5.32	12.0%	1.0%	65	+0.74	4.11	153	85
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	85
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	84
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	84
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	84
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	84
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	84
Michael Dominguez R 2021 · 4.09 FIP	20	SP	4.09	17.9%	11.1%	2.0%	.289	5.72	20.1%	5.0%	280	+1.63	3.82	383	84
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	83
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	83
Carlos Lagrange R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	22.1%	15.5%	2.1%	.291	3.93	25.8%	12.5%	199	-0.41	3.66	273	83
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	83
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	83
Darlin Saladin R 2023 · 4.98 FIP	20	SP	4.98	16.2%	13.3%	2.8%	.280	3.79	19.3%	8.0%	274	-1.19	2.91	407	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	31	20.5%	11.4%	1.13	4.84
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44