Jaitoine Kelly
P
Visalia Rawhide
Age 19
RHP
6'3" / 257 lbs
A
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION8 act + 21 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130120vR 111
ERA4.90
FIP4.90
K%17.8%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%7.5%
ROS IP21
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Arizona Black | 11 | 10 | 37 | 176 | 35 | 33 | 3 | 91% | 3.4 | 13.5% | 23.4% | -9.9% | 3.0% | 6.08 | 6.57 | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Arizona Black | 11 | 10 | 37 | 176 | 35 | 33 | 3 | 91% | 3.4 | 19.9% | 18.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 6.08 | 4.94 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 8 | 37 | 150 | 28 | 11 | 1 | 89% | 4.1 | 12.9% | 9.1% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 4.86 | 3.94 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 8 | 37 | 150 | 28 | 11 | 1 | 89% | 4.1 | 18.7% | 7.3% | 11.3% | 0.7% | 4.86 | 2.83 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 3 | 3 | 8 | 45 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 100% | 2.8 | — | — | — | — | 9.72 | — | — |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | ARI | 4 | 4 | 21 | 88 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 5.2 | 17.8% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 4.90 | 4.90 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.8% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 4.90 | 4.90 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 19 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 29 | 133 | 25 | 16 | 6 | — | — | 18.6% | 12.1% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 6.28 | 3.50 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | ARI | 4 | 4 | 22 | 92 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 5.5 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.70 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | ARI | 2 | 2 | 11 | 46 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.5 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.70 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 11 | 45 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.70 | 4.23 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 43 | 200 | 844 | 168 | 75 | 19 | 100% | 4.6 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.70 | 4.23 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 23 | 21 | 82 | 371 | 52 | 62 | 10 | 91% | 3.6 | 14.1% | 16.7% | -2.6% | 2.8% | 5.90 | 5.56 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 51 | 200 | 901 | 127 | 150 | 25 | 91% | 3.6 | 14.1% | 16.7% | -2.6% | 2.8% | 5.90 | 5.56 | -0.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jaitoine Kelly (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.90 | 17.8% | 10.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.61 | 19.4% | 10.1% | 22 | -0.29 | — | — | — |
| Logan Gragg R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.02 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 2.2% | .343 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 202 | +1.02 | 4.02 | 412 | 88 |
| Moises Castillo R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.1% | 11.7% | 2.8% | .269 | 4.08 | 19.4% | 5.0% | 65 | -0.50 | 3.77 | 101 | 88 |
| Jordany Ventura R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.08 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 2.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 219 | 87 |
| Randry De Leon R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.64 | 18.0% | 11.5% | 2.9% | .284 | 4.99 | 20.4% | 1.4% | 59 | +0.35 | 4.37 | 132 | 87 |
| Eddy Yean R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.56 | 16.8% | 10.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 4.56 | 17.7% | 3.4% | 120 | -0.00 | 3.75 | 435 | 85 |
| Regi Grace R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.92 | 16.3% | 11.2% | 1.4% | .333 | 4.31 | 20.5% | 8.8% | 86 | +0.39 | 3.30 | 224 | 85 |
| Jairo Garcia R 2027 · 4.47 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.47 | 16.4% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .298 | 5.25 | 10.1% | -1.9% | 96 | +0.78 | 3.88 | 148 | 84 |
| Edgar Moreta R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.87 | 16.3% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .269 | 5.59 | 17.7% | 9.2% | 117 | +1.72 | 3.87 | 170 | 84 |
| José López R 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.04 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.72 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 436 | -0.32 | 3.08 | 543 | 84 |
| Yohanse Morel R 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.62 | 17.0% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .350 | 5.11 | 16.2% | 2.7% | 96 | +0.49 | 3.33 | 263 | 83 |
| Carlos Jimenez R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.11 | 20.6% | 12.9% | 2.0% | .274 | 5.12 | 20.4% | -0.0% | 141 | +1.01 | 4.07 | 257 | 83 |
| Juan Bello R 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 18 | SP | 3.83 | 18.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .256 | 3.93 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 155 | +0.10 | 3.83 | 187 | 83 |
| Mason Thompson R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.27 | 18.0% | 12.3% | 2.1% | .288 | 4.50 | 16.6% | 4.5% | 115 | +0.23 | 3.15 | 342 | 83 |
| Wilkel Hernandez R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 19 | SP | 5.02 | 13.8% | 10.4% | 3.2% | .281 | 3.74 | 15.4% | 8.3% | 101 | -1.28 | 3.34 | 587 | 83 |
| Luis Ghisays R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.86 | 16.5% | 9.5% | 3.5% | .266 | 6.74 | 14.7% | 0.0% | 22 | +1.88 | 4.86 | 106 | 82 |
| Alec Kisena R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.01 | 17.6% | 11.8% | 1.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 248 | 82 |
| Jharold Clemente R 2027 · 5.08 FIP | 20 | SP | 5.08 | 17.5% | 13.6% | 3.2% | .258 | 5.35 | 13.3% | 4.3% | 92 | +0.27 | 3.91 | 116 | 82 |
| Miguel Mora R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.13 | 17.9% | 11.2% | 2.0% | .221 | 4.94 | 16.6% | -3.6% | 107 | +0.81 | 2.95 | 151 | 82 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2028 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 4.2% | .277 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.43 | 4.20 | 301 | 82 |
| Ramon Marquez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.98 | 21.1% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .331 | 3.00 | 30.4% | 19.8% | 49 | -0.98 | 3.00 | 104 | 82 |