Jacob Mayers P Salem RidgeYaks
Age 22 RHP 6'5" / 205 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.5 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION43 act + 30 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119109vR 100
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
K%23.4%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%13.6%
ROS IP30
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP
K: +3.0 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+3KBB: -5.6 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-6BBCONTACT: -1.6 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-2CONTACTSTAM: +5.5 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+5STAMTotal WAR: +0.14 (74 IP)+0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.10.20.20.20.20.1+$6M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
K†5560
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.2$0.5M+$0.0M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.9M $0.8M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
▸ 2026 Season
202622ASalem RidgeYaks147431866038250%3.123.9%24.1%-0.2%1.4%3.744.91-0.2
ROS22MLBBOS553012830134100%6.123.4%9.8%13.6%3.0%4.384.38+0.1
ROS22MLBBOS023.4%9.8%13.6%3.0%4.394.39
2026 TOT22MLBBOS743149051628.7%16.1%12.5%1.8%4.004.69+0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202723MLBBOS553113332124100%6.324.1%9.2%14.9%2.9%4.284.22+0.1
202824MLBBOS553213633124100%6.424.6%8.9%15.7%2.9%4.194.12+0.2
202925MLBBOS553313834124100%6.524.9%8.7%16.2%2.9%4.124.06+0.2
203026MLBBOS553313835124100%6.525.1%8.7%16.4%2.9%4.084.05+0.2
203127MLBBOS553213634124100%6.425.1%8.7%16.4%2.9%4.084.09+0.2
203228MLBBOS553113133124100%6.225.0%8.9%16.1%3.0%4.134.17+0.1
202723MLBBOS2215631562100%7.524.1%9.2%14.9%2.9%4.294.23+0.1
202824MLBBOS4422932383100%5.524.6%8.9%15.7%2.9%4.204.13+0.1
202925MLBBOS442611027103100%6.524.9%8.7%16.2%2.9%4.134.07+0.1
203026MLBBOS552811830103100%5.625.1%8.7%16.4%2.9%4.094.06+0.2
203127MLBBOS552912231114100%5.825.1%8.7%16.4%3.0%4.094.10+0.2
203228MLBBOS552912231114100%5.825.0%8.9%16.1%3.1%4.144.18+0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career24241506351585619100%6.324.9%8.8%16.1%3.0%4.143.74+2.9
/ 200 IP32322008442107425100%6.224.9%8.8%16.1%3.0%4.143.74+3.9
Career147431864445350%3.123.9%24.1%-0.2%1.4%3.744.91-0.2
/ 200 IP65322008582052071250%3.123.9%24.1%-0.2%1.4%3.744.91+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Jacob Mayers (OGILVIE) 4.38 23.4%9.8%3.0% 4.13 24.6%15.6%96 -0.25
Connor Cooke R 2026 · 3.47 FIP 22 SP- 3.47 23.7%8.4%2.4%.350 4.29 24.6%10.4%56 +0.82 2.92 103 87
Casey Legumina R 2028 · 4.28 FIP 24 SP- 4.28 23.3%9.3%3.6%.260 4.34 20.5%11.0%189 +0.06 3.68 323 86
Carson Rudd R 2026 · 3.43 FIP 22 SP- 3.43 25.4%10.6%2.1%.351 5.24 21.6%5.6%193 +1.81 3.43 242 86
Hunter Gregory R 2027 · 3.98 FIP 23 SP- 3.98 21.2%8.7%2.9%.374 4.64 20.5%7.6%188 +0.66 3.18 234 84
Colin Fields R 2027 · 3.48 FIP 23 SP- 3.48 20.5%10.3%1.5%.246 4.20 21.6%12.8%184 +0.72 3.07 229 82
Michael Knorr R 2027 · 4.03 FIP 23 SP- 4.03 23.6%11.1%2.8%.312 5.16 22.3%9.9%93 +1.13 4.03 152 80
Ray Gaither R 2028 · 4.91 FIP 24 SP- 4.91 21.9%13.2%3.6%.314 4.49 18.6%4.7%123 -0.42 4.16 164 80
Mason McGwire R 2026 · 3.50 FIP 22 SP- 3.50 23.5%10.9%1.8%.306 3.50 128 80
Kyle Zimmer R 2027 · 3.89 FIP 23 SW 3.89 21.8%8.6%2.8%.293 4.63 20.4%9.0%33 +0.74 2.08 276 79
Rico Garcia R 2027 · 3.21 FIP 23 SP- 3.21 18.8%7.0%1.5%.316 3.82 19.8%11.5%296 +0.61 3.21 566 79
Noah Skirrow R 2027 · 4.34 FIP 23 SP- 4.34 18.4%11.5%2.4%.306 4.68 16.2%5.7%316 +0.34 3.90 371 78
Cole Stapler R 2026 · 3.83 FIP 22 SW 3.83 19.2%6.0%2.9%.266 3.29 18.1%13.2%220 -0.54 3.28 255 78
John Matthews R 2027 · 4.88 FIP 23 SW 4.88 18.6%10.4%3.7%.351 4.67 15.5%1.6%145 -0.21 4.40 213 78
Chris Campos R 2026 · 4.86 FIP 22 SP- 4.86 21.0%11.8%3.7%.364 4.57 18.7%11.7%237 -0.29 4.43 306 77
Brett Gillis R 2029 · 3.37 FIP 25 SP- 3.37 20.3%8.8%1.6%.278 5.10 15.8%6.7%73 +1.73 3.37 119 77
Franco Aleman R 2026 · 3.93 FIP 22 SW 3.93 21.3%8.2%2.9%.391 3.00 29.2%18.4%114 -0.93 0.86 198 77
J.C. Flowers R 2027 · 3.39 FIP 23 SP- 3.39 21.3%8.7%1.8%.330 4.95 16.5%1.9%184 +1.56 3.39 281 77
Jake Lyons R 2026 · 4.41 FIP 22 SP- 4.41 21.8%13.9%2.5%.325 4.72 19.4%9.2%105 +0.31 4.31 174 77
Nick Gallagher R 2026 · 4.14 FIP 22 SW 4.14 17.2%7.1%2.9%.310 4.49 22.4%7.1%90 +0.35 4.09 196 77
Nathanael Santiago R 2029 · 3.47 FIP 25 SP- 3.47 20.3%11.4%1.2%.286 3.51 23.2%10.9%71 +0.04 2.45 138 77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION73224.6%9.0%1.144.18
Ryan Tepera ('22)74824.7%8.8%1.123.53
Jacob Barnes ('24)74222.1%9.6%1.214.58
Hansel Robles ('22)75925.3%10.1%1.163.86
Dominic Leone ('23)74624.2%10.1%1.333.81
Noé Ramirez ('22)55224.8%9.0%1.334.19
Daniel Hudson ('24)95225.5%8.9%1.133.75