Jacob Mayers — OGILVIE

Jacob Mayers P Salem RidgeYaks

Age 22 RHP 6'5" / 205 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.8 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.28

FIP5.28

K%23.2%

BB%16.8%

K-BB%6.4%

ROS IP35

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	21	14	65	295	90	61	4	67%	3.1	22.8%	24.2%	-1.4%	1.7%	4.43	5.20	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	21	14	65	295	90	61	4	67%	3.1	22.8%	24.2%	-1.4%	1.7%	4.43	5.20	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	BOS	15	8	46	204	64	42	3	53%	3.1	31.4%	20.6%	10.8%	1.5%	4.27	3.87	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	BOS	6	6	19	91	26	19	1	100%	3.1	28.6%	20.9%	7.7%	1.1%	4.82	3.94	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	66	279	67	40	8	100%	5.5	23.9%	14.4%	9.6%	2.9%	5.00	4.88	+0.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	68	286	70	37	8	100%	5.6	24.4%	12.8%	11.7%	2.9%	4.76	4.62	+0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	69	290	72	34	8	100%	5.7	24.8%	11.7%	13.0%	2.9%	4.57	4.46	+0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	69	290	72	34	8	100%	6.2	24.9%	11.6%	13.3%	2.9%	4.49	4.43	+0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	68	285	71	33	8	100%	6.1	24.9%	11.7%	13.2%	2.9%	4.48	4.47	+0.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	66	277	69	33	8	100%	6.0	24.8%	11.9%	12.9%	3.0%	4.53	4.56	+0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	BOS	10	10	63	264	65	32	8	100%	6.3	24.6%	12.1%	12.5%	3.2%	4.62	4.69	+0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	BOS	6	6	32	135	32	19	4	100%	5.3	23.9%	14.4%	9.6%	2.8%	4.96	4.84	+0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	BOS	8	8	47	198	49	25	6	100%	5.9	24.4%	12.8%	11.7%	2.8%	4.72	4.58	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	56	236	59	28	7	100%	5.6	24.8%	11.7%	13.0%	2.8%	4.53	4.42	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	60	253	63	29	7	100%	6.0	24.9%	11.6%	13.3%	2.8%	4.45	4.39	+0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	61	258	64	30	7	100%	6.1	24.9%	11.7%	13.2%	2.9%	4.44	4.43	+0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	60	253	63	30	8	100%	6.0	24.8%	11.9%	12.9%	3.0%	4.49	4.52	+0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	58	245	60	30	8	100%	5.8	24.6%	12.1%	12.5%	3.1%	4.58	4.65	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	64	375	1584	391	193	46	100%	5.9	24.7%	12.2%	12.5%	2.9%	4.56	4.14	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	208	103	25	100%	5.9	24.7%	12.2%	12.5%	2.9%	4.56	4.14	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		21	14	65	295	67	71	5	67%	3.1	22.8%	24.2%	-1.4%	1.7%	4.43	5.20	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	43	200	908	207	220	16	67%	3.1	22.8%	24.2%	-1.4%	1.7%	4.43	5.20	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Mayers (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.28	23.2%	16.8%	3.0%	—	4.65	24.4%	11.4%	202	-0.63	—	—	—
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	88
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	83
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	83
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	83
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	82
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	82
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	80
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	80
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	80
Eddy Peralta R 2023 · 4.65 FIP	20	SP-	4.65	22.0%	19.8%	1.6%	.342	3.96	21.0%	1.7%	86	-0.69	3.73	117	79
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	78
Lisandro Almonte R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	20.4%	20.7%	2.8%	.274	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	15	-1.73	3.81	128	78
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	78
Jeisson Cabrera R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	20	SP-	4.42	21.3%	15.5%	2.1%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	244	77
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	76
Kevin Abel R 2022 · 5.92 FIP	23	SW	5.92	25.2%	22.4%	3.9%	.441	4.63	18.6%	4.5%	308	-1.29	4.50	448	76
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	76
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.53	352	76
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	76
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	63	24.5%	12.6%	1.15	4.68
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33