Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 4 | 2 | 10 | 38 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 50% | 2.5 | 39.5% | 10.5% | 28.9% | 0.0% | 2.70 | 1.10 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 4 | 2 | 10 | 38 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 50% | 2.5 | 39.5% | 10.5% | 28.9% | 0.0% | 2.70 | 1.30 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 15 | 9 | 66 | 282 | 70 | 22 | 8 | 60% | 4.4 | 18.5% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 5.32 | 4.70 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | CLE | 5 | 5 | 34 | 144 | 33 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 6.8 | 23.1% | 9.2% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.1% | 9.2% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.35 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 100 | 426 | 103 | 35 | 12 | — | — | 24.2% | 8.3% | 16.0% | 2.9% | 4.99 | 4.58 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | CLE | 5 | 5 | 35 | 149 | 35 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 7.1 | 23.8% | 8.7% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.21 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | CLE | 2 | 2 | 17 | 72 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 8.5 | 23.8% | 8.7% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.21 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 17 | 73 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 8.7 | 23.8% | 8.7% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 3.83 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 28 | 28 | 200 | 844 | 196 | 69 | 23 | 100% | 7.0 | 23.8% | 8.7% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 3.83 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 19 | 11 | 76 | 320 | 67 | 30 | 10 | 58% | 4.0 | 21.0% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 3.2% | 4.97 | 4.27 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 29 | 200 | 842 | 177 | 79 | 27 | 58% | 4.0 | 21.0% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 3.2% | 4.97 | 4.27 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Will McCausland (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 23.1% | 9.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.21 | 23.8% | 15.1% | 35 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Michael Knorr R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 87 |
| Connor Cooke R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 84 |
| Ricky Castro R 2028 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 84 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 83 |
| Travis Herrin R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.21 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 3.6% | .315 | 5.04 | 17.6% | 5.2% | 106 | +0.83 | 4.21 | 236 | 82 |
| Casey Legumina R 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 81 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.43 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 195 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 258 | 81 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2027 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 81 |
| J.C. Flowers R 2027 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.39 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 1.9% | 184 | +1.56 | 3.39 | 281 | 80 |
| Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.33 | 17.6% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .343 | 6.52 | 19.2% | 11.3% | 197 | +2.19 | 3.27 | 243 | 80 |
| Brett Gillis R 2029 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 80 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2028 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .344 | 5.03 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.07 | 3.58 | 426 | 79 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2028 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 79 |
| Nick Fraze R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .271 | 4.64 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 162 | -0.04 | 3.81 | 278 | 78 |
| Javi Rivera R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.88 | 22.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .259 | 3.71 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 93 | -0.17 | 2.72 | 229 | 78 |
| Rico Garcia R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.21 | 18.8% | 7.0% | 1.5% | .316 | 3.82 | 19.8% | 11.5% | 296 | +0.61 | 3.21 | 566 | 78 |
| Tanner Hall R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 78 |
| Colin Fields R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 78 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 78 |
| Zach Peek R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .339 | 3.40 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 45 | -0.17 | 3.40 | 233 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 35 | 23.4% | 8.9% | 1.16 | 4.31 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |