Will McCausland

P Lake County Captains

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.7 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#634ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	ALynchburg Hil…	4	2	10	2.70	1.30	39.5%	10.5%	—	K 39.5% · BB 10.5% · FIP 1.10
2026	22	MIX2 levels	24	13	104	5.62	3.98	23.3%	7.9%	—	K 17.6% · BB 9.3% · FIP 5.08
2027PROJ	23	MLBCLE	—	—	0	4.94	4.94	18.3%	9.2%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBCLE	6	6	34	4.79	4.73	19.6%	8.8%	0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBCLE	8	8	48	4.67	4.62	20.4%	8.5%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.6M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 95%

CompsCooper Chandler (age 24) · Kyle Scott (age 22) · Joey Mancini (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%18.3%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%9.0%

Proj IP73

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$19M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.2M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	4	2	10	38	15	4	0	50%	2.5	39.5%	10.5%	28.9%	0.0%	2.70	1.10	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	4	2	10	38	15	4	0	50%	2.5	39.5%	10.5%	28.9%	0.0%	2.70	1.10	—
2025	21	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	4	2	10	38	15	4	0	50%	2.5	39.5%	10.5%	28.9%	0.0%	2.70	1.30	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	13	104	454	106	36	15	54%	4.3	17.6%	9.3%	8.3%	4.2%	5.62	5.08	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	13	104	454	106	36	15	54%	4.3	17.6%	9.3%	8.3%	4.2%	5.62	5.08	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	13	104	454	106	36	15	54%	4.3	23.3%	7.9%	15.4%	3.3%	5.62	3.98	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	CLE	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.3%	9.2%	9.0%	3.3%	4.94	4.94	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	14	14	78	331	65	29	11	100%	5.6	19.6%	8.8%	10.9%	3.3%	4.79	4.73	+0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	CLE	12	12	72	306	62	26	10	100%	6.0	20.4%	8.5%	11.9%	3.2%	4.67	4.62	+0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	CLE	12	12	71	301	63	25	10	100%	6.0	20.8%	8.5%	12.3%	3.2%	4.60	4.57	+0.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	CLE	12	12	69	292	61	25	10	100%	5.8	20.8%	8.5%	12.3%	3.3%	4.60	4.60	+0.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	CLE	11	11	66	277	57	24	9	100%	6.0	20.7%	8.7%	12.0%	3.4%	4.65	4.69	+0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	CLE	10	10	61	257	53	23	9	100%	6.1	20.4%	8.9%	11.6%	3.5%	4.75	4.82	+0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	CLE	9	9	55	232	47	21	9	100%	6.1	20.1%	9.2%	10.9%	3.7%	4.90	4.99	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	6	6	34	144	28	13	5	100%	5.7	19.6%	8.8%	10.9%	3.3%	4.79	4.73	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	CLE	8	8	48	203	41	17	7	100%	6.0	20.4%	8.5%	11.9%	3.2%	4.67	4.62	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	CLE	10	10	57	241	50	20	8	100%	5.7	20.8%	8.5%	12.3%	3.2%	4.60	4.57	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	CLE	10	10	59	249	52	21	8	100%	5.9	20.8%	8.5%	12.3%	3.3%	4.60	4.60	+0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	CLE	10	10	58	245	51	21	8	100%	5.8	20.7%	8.7%	12.0%	3.4%	4.65	4.69	+0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	CLE	9	9	55	232	47	21	8	100%	6.1	20.4%	8.9%	11.6%	3.5%	4.75	4.82	+0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	CLE	8	8	51	215	43	20	8	100%	6.4	20.1%	9.2%	10.9%	3.7%	4.89	4.98	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		47	47	362	1529	313	133	52	100%	7.7	20.5%	8.7%	11.8%	3.4%	4.70	4.33	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		26	26	200	844	173	73	29	100%	7.8	20.5%	8.7%	11.8%	3.4%	4.70	4.33	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		28	15	114	492	95	46	19	54%	4.1	19.3%	9.3%	9.9%	3.9%	5.37	4.78	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	26	200	863	166	81	33	54%	4.1	19.3%	9.3%	9.9%	3.9%	5.37	4.78	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Lake County Captains · 53 IPFIP 4.56 → 5.66 (+1.10)K% 20.3% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.25%	—	×0.770	15.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.75%	—	×1.150	7.76%
HR / BF /BF	4.22%	÷1.000	×1.250	5.27%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.56 → 5.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AHill City Howlers · 51 IPFIP 3.28 → 4.45 (+1.18)K% 26.7% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.73%	—	×0.740	19.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.22%	—	×1.180	10.88%
HR / BF /BF	2.30%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.28 → 4.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALynchburg Hillcats · 10 IPFIP 1.10 → 2.21 (+1.11)K% 39.5% → 29.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.47%	—	×0.740	29.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.53%	—	×1.180	12.42%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.184	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.10 → 2.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will McCausland (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	18.3%	9.2%	3.3%	—	4.64	20.3%	11.7%	222	-0.30	—	—	—
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	91
Kyle Scott R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP-	4.12	17.7%	8.2%	2.7%	.269	3.94	15.9%	4.3%	42	-0.18	3.94	138	88
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.39	16.6%	6.3%	297	+0.17	3.64	392	87
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	87
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	86
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	86
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	85
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	85
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	85
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	84
James Hicks R 2024 · 4.23 FIP	23	SW	4.23	19.6%	7.2%	3.4%	.338	4.60	17.1%	9.7%	166	+0.37	4.23	272	84
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	84
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	84
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	83
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	83
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	83
Zach Miner R 2006 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP-	4.35	14.8%	7.8%	2.8%	.300	4.24	13.8%	4.6%	264	-0.11	3.55	386	82
Nick Belzer R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.51	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.28	4.23	112	82
Brandon Maurer R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP-	4.72	17.4%	6.7%	4.1%	.339	3.21	20.5%	14.5%	190	-1.51	3.08	394	82
Tim Redding R 2001 · 4.88 FIP	23	SP-	4.88	22.1%	9.6%	4.4%	.321	4.34	15.1%	6.6%	350	-0.54	3.97	822	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	68	20.1%	8.8%	1.30	4.73
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Luis Vizcaino ('09)	2.7	68	21.0%	10.1%	1.30	4.33
Shane Greene ('23)	2.4	59	21.7%	8.6%	1.12	4.50
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Ed Vande Berg ('82-'88, 3 WAR*)	2.6	74	19.6%*	8.8%*	1.07*	4.07*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*