Will McCausland — OGILVIE

Will McCausland P Lake County Captains

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.6 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%20.7%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%11.5%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$24M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.1M
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	4	2	10	38	15	4	0	50%	2.5	39.5%	10.5%	28.9%	0.0%	2.70	1.10	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	4	2	10	38	15	4	0	50%	2.5	39.5%	10.5%	28.9%	0.0%	2.70	1.10	—
2025	21	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	4	2	10	38	15	4	0	50%	2.5	39.5%	10.5%	28.9%	0.0%	2.70	1.30	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	24	13	104	454	106	36	15	54%	4.3	17.6%	9.3%	8.3%	4.2%	5.62	5.08	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	24	13	104	454	106	36	15	54%	4.3	17.6%	9.3%	8.3%	4.2%	5.62	5.08	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	CLE	12	6	51	217	58	20	5	50%	4.2	26.7%	9.2%	17.5%	2.3%	4.97	3.28	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	CLE	12	7	53	237	48	16	10	58%	4.4	20.3%	6.8%	13.5%	4.2%	6.24	4.56	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CLE	19	19	106	446	96	39	13	100%	5.6	21.6%	8.7%	12.9%	3.0%	4.47	4.41	+0.6
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	19	19	108	457	101	38	14	100%	5.7	22.2%	8.3%	13.8%	3.0%	4.37	4.31	+0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	CLE	19	19	110	463	104	38	14	100%	5.8	22.5%	8.2%	14.3%	3.0%	4.29	4.25	+0.8
2030	26	MLB MLE	CLE	18	18	110	463	105	38	14	100%	6.1	22.7%	8.1%	14.6%	3.0%	4.25	4.22	+0.9
2031	27	MLB MLE	CLE	18	18	108	456	104	37	14	100%	6.0	22.7%	8.2%	14.5%	3.0%	4.26	4.26	+0.8
2032	28	MLB MLE	CLE	17	17	105	442	100	37	14	100%	6.2	22.6%	8.4%	14.2%	3.1%	4.31	4.35	+0.7
2033	29	MLB MLE	CLE	17	17	100	423	95	36	14	100%	5.9	22.4%	8.6%	13.8%	3.3%	4.41	4.48	+0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	CLE	16	16	94	397	87	35	14	100%	5.9	22.0%	8.9%	13.1%	3.5%	4.56	4.66	+0.3
2035	31	MLB MLE	CLE	15	15	88	370	80	34	14	100%	5.8	21.6%	9.2%	12.4%	3.7%	4.74	4.86	+0.0
2036	32	MLB MLE	CLE	14	14	81	342	72	33	14	100%	5.8	21.2%	9.6%	11.5%	4.0%	4.95	5.08	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	CLE	9	9	52	220	47	19	7	100%	5.8	21.6%	8.7%	12.9%	3.0%	4.47	4.41	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	14	14	76	321	71	27	10	100%	5.4	22.2%	8.3%	13.8%	3.0%	4.37	4.31	+0.5
2029	25	MLB CTX	CLE	15	15	89	376	85	31	11	100%	5.9	22.5%	8.2%	14.3%	3.0%	4.29	4.25	+0.7
2030	26	MLB CTX	CLE	16	16	96	405	92	33	12	100%	6.0	22.7%	8.1%	14.6%	3.0%	4.25	4.22	+0.8
2031	27	MLB CTX	CLE	16	16	98	414	94	34	12	100%	6.1	22.7%	8.2%	14.5%	3.0%	4.26	4.26	+0.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	CLE	16	16	97	410	93	34	13	100%	6.1	22.6%	8.4%	14.2%	3.1%	4.31	4.35	+0.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	CLE	16	16	93	393	88	34	13	100%	5.8	22.4%	8.6%	13.8%	3.3%	4.41	4.48	+0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	CLE	15	15	88	372	82	33	13	100%	5.9	22.0%	8.9%	13.1%	3.5%	4.56	4.66	+0.2
2035	31	MLB CTX	CLE	14	14	83	350	76	32	13	100%	5.9	21.6%	9.2%	12.4%	3.7%	4.73	4.85	+0.0
2036	32	MLB CTX	CLE	13	13	77	325	69	31	13	100%	5.9	21.2%	9.6%	11.5%	3.9%	4.94	5.07	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		110	110	848	3582	795	308	116	100%	7.7	22.2%	8.6%	13.6%	3.2%	4.44	4.09	+8.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		26	26	200	844	187	73	27	100%	7.7	22.2%	8.6%	13.6%	3.2%	4.44	4.09	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		28	15	114	492	95	46	19	54%	4.1	19.3%	9.3%	9.9%	3.9%	5.37	4.78	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	26	200	863	166	81	33	54%	4.1	19.3%	9.3%	9.9%	3.9%	5.37	4.78	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will McCausland (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	20.7%	9.2%	3.1%	—	4.32	22.1%	13.7%	323	-0.27	—	—	—
Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 2019 · 4.48 FIP	21	SP-	4.48	17.6%	7.9%	3.4%	.343	6.27	19.2%	11.3%	197	+1.79	3.27	243	85
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	81
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	81
Geno Encina R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	21	SW	4.22	16.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.325	7.09	12.0%	2.3%	76	+2.87	4.22	200	80
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	80
Orlando Rodriguez R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP-	4.54	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.51	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.03	4.40	119	80
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	80
Travis Herrin R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP-	4.40	21.1%	7.3%	3.9%	.315	4.92	17.6%	5.2%	106	+0.52	4.40	236	79
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	78
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	78
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	78
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	78
Garrett Hill R 2018 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP-	3.39	19.2%	7.7%	1.7%	.390	3.16	21.6%	11.0%	200	-0.23	3.02	539	77
Nolan Perry R 2023 · 4.58 FIP	19	SW	4.58	19.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.385	4.07	25.2%	10.2%	129	-0.51	3.62	167	77
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.86	16.2%	2.6%	184	+1.27	3.59	281	77
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	77
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.4%	7.7%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	77
Jesus Camargo R 2018 · 3.44 FIP	22	SP-	3.44	16.2%	6.4%	1.6%	.290	3.93	17.3%	8.5%	73	+0.49	2.78	164	76
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	76
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	94	22.2%	8.6%	1.25	4.44
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17