Sean Youngerman

P Clearwater Threshers

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 230 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.4 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#923ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	APHI	21	18	81	5.02	4.29	20.4%	10.3%	—	K 15.1% · BB 12.2% · FIP 5.42
2027PROJ	23	MLBPHI	—	—	0	5.20	5.20	16.8%	11.2%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBPHI	5	5	26	5.10	5.01	18.6%	10.2%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBPHI	6	6	37	4.92	4.82	19.7%	9.5%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsRyan Atkinson (age 23) · Levi Thomas (age 23) · Jeremy Lee (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.20

FIP5.20

K%16.8%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%5.6%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	21	18	81	348	71	36	10	86%	3.8	15.1%	12.2%	2.9%	3.7%	5.02	5.42	—
2026	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	21	18	81	348	71	36	10	86%	3.8	15.1%	12.2%	2.9%	3.7%	5.02	5.42	—
2026	22	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	21	18	81	348	71	36	10	86%	3.8	20.4%	10.3%	10.1%	2.9%	5.02	4.29	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	PHI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.8%	11.2%	5.6%	3.1%	5.20	5.20	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	PHI	11	11	62	260	48	26	8	100%	5.6	18.6%	10.2%	8.4%	3.1%	4.98	4.89	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	PHI	10	10	56	235	46	22	7	100%	5.6	19.7%	9.5%	10.2%	3.1%	4.80	4.70	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	PHI	9	9	55	231	47	22	7	100%	6.1	20.3%	9.5%	10.8%	3.1%	4.70	4.64	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	PHI	9	9	53	224	46	21	7	100%	5.9	20.4%	9.6%	10.8%	3.1%	4.68	4.67	+0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	PHI	8	8	50	212	43	21	7	100%	6.3	20.2%	9.7%	10.5%	3.2%	4.73	4.76	+0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	PHI	8	8	46	196	39	19	7	100%	5.8	20.0%	9.9%	10.1%	3.4%	4.83	4.89	+0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	PHI	7	7	42	177	35	18	6	100%	6.0	19.7%	10.2%	9.4%	3.6%	4.97	5.07	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	PHI	5	5	26	110	20	11	4	100%	5.2	18.6%	10.2%	8.4%	3.3%	5.10	5.01	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	PHI	6	6	37	156	31	15	5	100%	6.2	19.7%	9.5%	10.2%	3.3%	4.92	4.82	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	PHI	7	7	43	182	37	17	6	100%	6.1	20.3%	9.5%	10.8%	3.3%	4.82	4.76	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	PHI	8	8	45	190	39	18	6	100%	5.6	20.4%	9.6%	10.8%	3.3%	4.80	4.79	+0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	PHI	8	8	45	190	38	18	7	100%	5.6	20.2%	9.7%	10.5%	3.4%	4.86	4.89	+0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	PHI	7	7	42	177	35	18	6	100%	6.0	20.0%	9.9%	10.1%	3.6%	4.96	5.02	+0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	PHI	6	6	39	165	32	17	6	100%	6.5	19.7%	10.2%	9.4%	3.8%	5.11	5.21	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		47	47	277	1170	233	114	40	100%	5.9	19.9%	9.8%	10.1%	3.4%	4.93	4.54	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	168	82	29	100%	5.9	19.9%	9.8%	10.1%	3.4%	4.93	4.54	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		21	18	81	348	53	42	13	86%	3.8	15.1%	12.2%	2.9%	3.7%	5.02	5.42	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	45	200	863	130	105	32	86%	3.8	15.1%	12.2%	2.9%	3.7%	5.02	5.42	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AClearwater Threshers · 81 IPFIP 4.26 → 5.42 (+1.16)K% 20.4% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.40%	—	×0.740	15.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.34%	—	×1.180	12.21%
HR / BF /BF	2.87%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.74%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.26 → 5.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sean Youngerman (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.75	19.5%	9.8%	172	-0.45	—	—	—
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	88
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	88
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	88
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.7%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	87
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	86
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	85
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	85
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	85
Robbie Peto R 2021 · 5.81 FIP	23	SP	5.81	16.6%	10.7%	5.0%	.303	5.57	15.5%	-1.0%	161	-0.24	5.39	232	84
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	84
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	84
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	84
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	83
Cole Wiper R 2015 · 5.41 FIP	23	SP	5.41	14.6%	10.5%	4.0%	.343	4.52	15.6%	5.2%	136	-0.89	3.97	170	83
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	83
Michael Matuella R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	13.5%	8.2%	2.3%	.342	4.66	16.5%	3.4%	94	+0.38	3.60	169	83
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	83
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	83
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	82
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.05	17.5%	10.6%	280	-0.88	3.90	299	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	53	19.4%	10.0%	1.23	4.87
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Cliff Politte ('06)	2.1	51	19.3%	9.6%	1.23	4.40
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*