Sean Youngerman — OGILVIE

Sean Youngerman P Clearwater Threshers

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 230 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.1 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 107

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%19.7%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$23M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF—50

CTRL—55

CMD—55

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.2M
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	21	18	81	348	71	36	10	86%	3.8	15.1%	12.2%	2.9%	3.7%	5.02	5.42	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	21	18	81	348	71	36	10	86%	3.8	15.1%	12.2%	2.9%	3.7%	5.02	5.42	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	PHI	21	18	81	348	71	36	10	86%	3.8	20.4%	10.3%	10.1%	2.9%	5.02	4.26	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	PHI	15	15	82	346	73	32	10	100%	5.5	21.0%	9.3%	11.7%	3.0%	4.60	4.52	+0.4
2028	24	MLB MLE	PHI	15	15	84	355	77	31	10	100%	5.6	21.6%	8.7%	12.9%	2.9%	4.46	4.38	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	PHI	15	15	85	359	79	30	11	100%	5.7	22.0%	8.3%	13.7%	2.9%	4.35	4.29	+0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	PHI	14	14	85	359	80	30	11	100%	6.1	22.2%	8.3%	13.9%	2.9%	4.30	4.27	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	PHI	14	14	84	353	78	30	11	100%	6.0	22.2%	8.4%	13.8%	3.0%	4.30	4.31	+0.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	PHI	14	14	81	343	76	29	11	100%	5.8	22.1%	8.5%	13.5%	3.1%	4.35	4.39	+0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	PHI	13	13	78	327	78	26	11	100%	6.0	23.8%	7.9%	15.9%	3.2%	4.29	4.25	+0.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	PHI	12	12	73	307	72	25	11	100%	6.1	23.5%	8.2%	15.2%	3.4%	4.37	4.43	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	PHI	11	11	68	287	66	25	11	100%	6.2	23.1%	8.6%	14.5%	3.7%	4.53	4.63	+0.2
2036	32	MLB MLE	PHI	10	10	63	265	60	24	10	100%	6.3	22.6%	9.0%	13.6%	3.9%	4.73	4.86	+0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	PHI	7	7	40	169	35	16	5	100%	5.7	21.0%	9.3%	11.7%	3.2%	4.72	4.64	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	PHI	11	11	59	249	54	22	8	100%	5.4	21.6%	8.7%	12.9%	3.2%	4.58	4.50	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	PHI	12	12	69	291	64	24	9	100%	5.8	22.0%	8.3%	13.7%	3.1%	4.47	4.41	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	PHI	12	12	74	312	69	26	10	100%	6.2	22.2%	8.3%	13.9%	3.2%	4.42	4.39	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	PHI	13	13	76	321	71	27	10	100%	5.8	22.2%	8.4%	13.8%	3.2%	4.42	4.43	+0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	PHI	12	12	75	317	70	27	10	100%	6.2	22.1%	8.5%	13.5%	3.3%	4.47	4.51	+0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	PHI	12	12	72	304	72	24	11	100%	6.0	23.8%	7.9%	15.9%	3.5%	4.42	4.38	+0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	PHI	11	11	68	287	67	24	11	100%	6.2	23.5%	8.2%	15.2%	3.7%	4.51	4.57	+0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	PHI	11	11	65	274	63	24	11	100%	5.9	23.1%	8.6%	14.5%	3.9%	4.68	4.78	+0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	PHI	10	10	60	253	57	23	11	100%	6.0	22.6%	9.0%	13.6%	4.2%	4.89	5.02	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		111	111	657	2774	623	235	95	100%	5.9	22.5%	8.5%	14.0%	3.4%	4.54	4.17	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	190	72	29	100%	5.9	22.5%	8.5%	14.0%	3.4%	4.54	4.17	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		21	18	81	348	53	42	13	86%	3.8	15.1%	12.2%	2.9%	3.7%	5.02	5.42	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	45	200	863	130	105	32	86%	3.8	15.1%	12.2%	2.9%	3.7%	5.02	5.42	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sean Youngerman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	19.7%	10.2%	3.0%	—	4.40	21.5%	12.8%	251	-0.36	—	—	—
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	89
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	86
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	85
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	85
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	85
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	85
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	84
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	83
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	82
Ricky DeVito R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.8%	3.2%	.309	4.65	21.5%	2.4%	151	+0.61	4.04	215	82
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	82
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	81
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	81
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	80
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	80
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	79
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	79
Cooper Bradford R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP	4.99	18.0%	8.5%	4.2%	.393	4.99	17.6%	4.8%	106	+0.00	4.97	136	79
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	79
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.56	18.5%	9.7%	359	+0.93	3.63	429	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	73	22.3%	8.6%	1.23	4.43
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94