Ryan DeSanto

P Hill City Howlers

Age 23 LHP A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.4 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1085ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	19	18	83	4.25	3.78	26.6%	13.1%	—	K 19.3% · BB 15.6% · FIP 5.09
2027PROJ	23	MLBCLE	—	—	0	5.29	5.29	20.3%	14.8%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBCLE	5	5	26	5.06	4.97	21.2%	13.0%	0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBCLE	6	6	37	4.86	4.77	21.8%	11.8%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 1.5, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 90%

CompsCaden Grice (age 22) · Samy Natera Jr. (age 23) · Brandon Knarr (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117126vR 134

ERA5.29

FIP5.29

K%20.3%

BB%14.8%

K-BB%5.5%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	83	350	93	46	8	95%	4.4	19.3%	15.6%	3.7%	3.0%	4.25	5.09	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	83	350	93	46	8	95%	4.4	19.3%	15.6%	3.7%	3.0%	4.25	5.09	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	18	83	350	93	46	8	95%	4.4	26.6%	13.1%	13.4%	2.3%	4.25	3.78	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	CLE	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.3%	14.8%	5.5%	3.0%	5.29	5.29	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	11	11	61	258	55	33	8	100%	5.5	21.2%	13.0%	8.2%	3.0%	5.06	4.97	+0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	CLE	10	10	56	238	52	28	7	100%	5.6	21.8%	11.8%	10.0%	3.0%	4.86	4.77	+0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	CLE	9	9	55	233	51	27	7	100%	6.1	22.1%	11.7%	10.4%	3.0%	4.77	4.72	+0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	CLE	9	9	54	226	50	26	7	100%	5.9	22.1%	11.7%	10.4%	3.0%	4.76	4.75	+0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	CLE	8	8	51	214	47	25	7	100%	6.3	22.0%	11.8%	10.2%	3.1%	4.80	4.83	+0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	CLE	8	8	47	198	43	24	6	100%	5.9	21.7%	12.0%	9.7%	3.3%	4.90	4.97	+0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	CLE	7	7	42	179	38	22	6	100%	6.0	21.4%	12.3%	9.0%	3.5%	5.05	5.14	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	5	5	26	110	23	14	3	100%	5.2	21.2%	13.0%	8.2%	3.0%	5.06	4.97	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	CLE	6	6	37	156	34	18	5	100%	6.2	21.8%	11.8%	10.0%	3.0%	4.86	4.77	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	CLE	7	7	44	186	41	22	6	100%	6.3	22.1%	11.7%	10.4%	3.0%	4.77	4.72	+0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	CLE	8	8	46	194	43	23	6	100%	5.8	22.1%	11.7%	10.4%	3.0%	4.76	4.75	+0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	CLE	8	8	45	190	42	22	6	100%	5.6	22.0%	11.8%	10.2%	3.1%	4.80	4.83	+0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	CLE	7	7	43	182	39	22	6	100%	6.1	21.7%	12.0%	9.7%	3.3%	4.90	4.97	+0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	CLE	6	6	39	165	35	20	6	100%	6.5	21.4%	12.3%	9.0%	3.5%	5.05	5.14	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		47	47	279	1180	257	141	37	100%	5.9	21.8%	12.0%	9.8%	3.1%	4.87	4.49	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	184	101	26	100%	5.9	21.8%	12.0%	9.8%	3.1%	4.87	4.49	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		19	18	83	350	68	55	11	95%	4.4	19.3%	15.6%	3.7%	3.0%	4.25	5.09	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	44	200	847	164	132	25	95%	4.4	19.3%	15.6%	3.7%	3.0%	4.25	5.09	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AHill City Howlers · 66 IPFIP 4.15 → 5.45 (+1.30)K% 25.5% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.52%	—	×0.740	18.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.69%	—	×1.180	17.33%
HR / BF /BF	2.45%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.18%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.15 → 5.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Guardians · 17 IPFIP 2.11 → 3.50 (+1.39)K% 31.2% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.25%	—	×0.680	21.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×1.250	7.81%
HR / BF /BF	1.56%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.19%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.11 → 3.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan DeSanto (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.29	20.3%	14.8%	3.0%	—	4.82	21.7%	9.5%	173	-0.47	—	—	—
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	89
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	84
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	83
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.55	24.0%	17.0%	227	+0.19	2.36	414	83
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	83
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.61	19.4%	5.0%	215	+0.09	3.88	280	82
J.C. Romero L 2000 · 4.58 FIP	24	SP	4.58	18.7%	11.2%	3.0%	.356	3.98	18.2%	8.4%	209	-0.60	2.88	652	81
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	80
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.8%	17.5%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	80
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	80
Andrew Sears L 2024 · 4.25 FIP	21	SP	4.25	19.6%	15.4%	1.6%	.248	4.06	19.9%	11.0%	177	-0.19	3.71	266	80
Russell Smith L 2022 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	16.0%	10.4%	3.8%	.272	4.64	21.2%	7.8%	107	-0.50	4.00	175	80
Doug Nikhazy L 2023 · 5.39 FIP	23	SP	5.39	21.9%	16.9%	3.6%	.304	4.71	20.2%	9.3%	258	-0.68	4.12	463	80
Andy Oliver L 2010 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP	4.66	17.6%	10.8%	3.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	187	79
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	79
Dalton Rogers L 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	17.7%	14.9%	1.2%	.324	4.76	20.4%	4.7%	185	+0.59	3.47	364	79
Garrett Olson L 2007 · 5.11 FIP	23	SP	5.11	17.3%	16.7%	2.5%	.369	5.17	14.1%	4.6%	251	+0.06	4.57	283	78
Brooks Gosswein L 2022 · 5.13 FIP	23	SP	5.13	14.7%	14.8%	2.5%	.328	5.61	15.2%	-2.7%	66	+0.48	5.13	165	78
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	77
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	53	21.6%	12.4%	1.19	4.94
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57