Shane Van Dam
P
Columbia Fireflies
Age 22
RHP
6'5" / 200 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.6 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 38 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 107
ERA4.68
FIP4.68
K%20.1%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%10.2%
ROS IP38
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 16 | 12 | 62 | 289 | 52 | 22 | 7 | 75% | 3.9 | 13.3% | 9.0% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 5.49 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | KC | 7 | 7 | 38 | 159 | 32 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.4 | 20.1% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.68 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | KC | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.1% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.63 | 4.63 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | KC | — | — | 100 | 448 | 84 | 38 | 12 | — | — | 18.7% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 5.18 | 4.78 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | KC | 14 | 14 | 73 | 309 | 67 | 29 | 9 | 100% | 5.2 | 21.7% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.46 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | KC | 18 | 18 | 101 | 426 | 90 | 41 | 12 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.2% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | KC | 21 | 21 | 120 | 508 | 112 | 48 | 15 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.0% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.42 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | KC | 22 | 22 | 132 | 558 | 125 | 52 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.4% | 9.3% | 13.1% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.37 | +1.6 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | KC | 22 | 22 | 130 | 550 | 123 | 52 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.4% | 9.4% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +1.5 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | KC | 21 | 21 | 126 | 533 | 119 | 51 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.50 | +1.3 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | KC | 20 | 20 | 121 | 509 | 112 | 50 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.63 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 113 | 479 | 104 | 48 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 4.80 | +0.8 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | KC | 7 | 7 | 36 | 152 | 33 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 5.1 | 21.7% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | KC | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 63 | 29 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.2% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | KC | 17 | 17 | 98 | 414 | 91 | 39 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.0% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.37 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 116 | 490 | 110 | 46 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.4% | 9.3% | 13.1% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.32 | +1.5 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | KC | 20 | 20 | 118 | 498 | 112 | 47 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.4% | 9.4% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +1.4 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 116 | 490 | 109 | 47 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.45 | +1.3 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 112 | 473 | 104 | 46 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 4.50 | 4.57 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | KC | 18 | 18 | 106 | 448 | 97 | 45 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.74 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 131 | 131 | 772 | 3258 | 718 | 313 | 97 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.0% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.08 | +11.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 186 | 81 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.0% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.08 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 16 | 12 | 62 | 289 | 38 | 26 | 9 | 75% | 3.9 | 13.3% | 9.0% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 5.49 | 4.84 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 39 | 200 | 927 | 123 | 83 | 29 | 75% | 3.9 | 13.3% | 9.0% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 5.49 | 4.84 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shane Van Dam (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.68 | 20.1% | 9.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.47 | 21.6% | 12.1% | 294 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 89 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2027 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 87 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2028 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 86 |
| Tanner Hall R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 86 |
| Michael Knorr R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 86 |
| Ricky Castro R 2028 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 86 |
| Jared Karros R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .290 | 5.32 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 120 | +0.60 | 3.31 | 191 | 85 |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.06 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .268 | 5.93 | 17.4% | 2.1% | 47 | +1.87 | 4.06 | 101 | 85 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.43 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 195 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 258 | 84 |
| TJ Nichols R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.96 | 17.0% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .310 | 5.17 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 174 | +1.21 | 3.96 | 245 | 84 |
| Chad Donato R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 84 |
| Nick Fraze R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .271 | 4.64 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 162 | -0.04 | 3.81 | 278 | 83 |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 2.7% | .175 | 4.15 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 168 | +0.15 | 3.59 | 307 | 83 |
| Tommy Bergjans R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.49 | 17.2% | 8.1% | 1.5% | .327 | 4.29 | 15.7% | 9.7% | 268 | +0.80 | 3.49 | 322 | 82 |
| Christian Roa R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.02 | 19.6% | 12.4% | 3.6% | .321 | 4.92 | 22.7% | 6.2% | 260 | -0.10 | 4.38 | 406 | 82 |
| Jarrod Cande R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.43 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .330 | 5.02 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 212 | +0.59 | 4.37 | 292 | 81 |
| Johnathan Harmon R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.22 | 17.8% | 10.2% | 2.4% | .293 | 5.23 | 15.4% | 6.7% | 157 | +1.01 | 3.46 | 246 | 81 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 81 |
| Grant Judkins R 2027 · 5.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.40 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.85 | 16.4% | 5.4% | 150 | +0.45 | 5.40 | 322 | 81 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.37 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.01 | 3.42 | 237 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 106 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 1.18 | 4.51 |
| Jhoulys Chacín ('22) | 7 | 108 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 1.13 | 4.51 |
| Chad Kuhl ('24) | 8 | 84 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 1.31 | 4.98 |
| Matt Moore ('24) | 8 | 98 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 1.33 | 4.82 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |
| Garrett Richards ('22) | 7 | 82 | 21.2% | 9.0% | 0.98 | 3.95 |
| Vince Velasquez ('23) | 9 | 85 | 24.9% | 9.3% | 1.48 | 4.88 |