Shane Van Dam

P Columbia Fireflies

Age 23 RHP 6'5" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.8 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#410ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	AKC	23	18	93	4.53	3.48	20.1%	6.8%	—	K 14.9% · BB 8.0% · FIP 4.41
2027PROJ	23	MLBKC	—	—	0	4.76	4.76	16.9%	8.5%	—
2028PROJ30% MLB	24	MLBKC	5	5	29	4.48	4.41	19.1%	8.2%	0.3
2029PROJ51% MLB	25	MLBKC	9	9	52	4.34	4.27	20.4%	8.1%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$2M2033Arb-2$3M2034Arb-3$3M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsNick Dean (age 23) · Logan Martin (age 23) · Tyler Uberstine (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 107

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%16.9%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%8.4%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$28M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.4M
2034	Arb-3	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$8M		$13M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	23	18	93	413	83	28	9	78%	4.1	14.9%	8.0%	6.9%	2.8%	4.53	4.41	—
2026	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	23	18	93	413	83	28	9	78%	4.1	14.9%	8.0%	6.9%	2.8%	4.53	4.41	—
2026	22	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	23	18	93	413	83	28	9	78%	4.1	20.1%	6.8%	13.3%	2.2%	4.53	3.48	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.9%	8.5%	8.4%	3.0%	4.76	4.76	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	96	405	77	33	12	100%	5.6	19.1%	8.2%	10.8%	2.9%	4.60	4.53	+1.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	101	427	87	34	13	100%	6.0	20.4%	8.1%	12.4%	2.9%	4.46	4.39	+1.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	KC	18	18	108	456	97	36	13	100%	6.0	21.2%	8.0%	13.2%	2.9%	4.37	4.31	+1.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	104	441	94	36	13	100%	6.1	21.2%	8.1%	13.2%	3.0%	4.36	4.35	+1.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	100	420	89	35	13	100%	5.9	21.1%	8.2%	12.9%	3.1%	4.40	4.43	+1.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	KC	15	15	92	391	81	33	13	100%	6.2	20.9%	8.5%	12.4%	3.2%	4.50	4.56	+0.9
2034	30	MLB MLE	KC	14	14	84	354	73	31	12	100%	6.0	20.5%	8.8%	11.8%	3.4%	4.65	4.74	+0.6
2035	31	MLB MLE	KC	13	13	75	317	64	29	12	100%	5.8	20.1%	9.1%	11.0%	3.7%	4.83	4.94	+0.4
2036	32	MLB MLE	KC	11	11	66	280	55	27	11	100%	6.0	19.7%	9.5%	10.1%	3.9%	5.03	5.17	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	KC	5	5	29	122	23	10	3	100%	5.8	19.1%	8.2%	10.8%	2.7%	4.48	4.41	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	KC	9	9	52	220	45	18	6	100%	5.8	20.4%	8.1%	12.4%	2.7%	4.34	4.27	+0.6
2030	26	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	70	296	63	24	8	100%	5.8	21.2%	8.0%	13.2%	2.7%	4.25	4.19	+0.9
2031	27	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	77	325	69	26	9	100%	5.9	21.2%	8.1%	13.2%	2.8%	4.24	4.23	+0.9
2032	28	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	79	334	70	27	10	100%	6.1	21.1%	8.2%	12.9%	2.9%	4.27	4.30	+0.9
2033	29	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	77	325	68	28	10	100%	5.9	20.9%	8.5%	12.4%	3.0%	4.37	4.43	+0.8
2034	30	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	72	304	62	27	10	100%	6.0	20.5%	8.8%	11.8%	3.2%	4.51	4.60	+0.5
2035	31	MLB CTX	KC	11	11	66	279	56	25	9	100%	6.0	20.1%	9.1%	11.0%	3.4%	4.68	4.79	+0.3
2036	32	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	59	249	49	24	9	100%	5.9	19.7%	9.5%	10.1%	3.6%	4.87	5.01	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		97	97	580	2447	504	208	73	100%	6.0	20.6%	8.5%	12.1%	3.0%	4.43	4.08	+9.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	174	72	25	100%	6.0	20.6%	8.5%	12.1%	3.0%	4.43	4.08	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		23	18	93	413	61	33	12	78%	4.1	14.9%	8.0%	6.9%	2.8%	4.53	4.41	+8.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	39	200	885	132	71	25	78%	4.1	14.9%	8.0%	6.9%	2.8%	4.53	4.41	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AColumbia Fireflies · 93 IPFIP 3.46 → 4.41 (+0.95)K% 20.1% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.10%	—	×0.740	14.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.78%	—	×1.180	8.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.18%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.83%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.46 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shane Van Dam (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.41	20.3%	12.2%	305	-0.35	—	—	—
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	93
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	90
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	89
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	89
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	88
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	88
Garrett Burhenn R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	13.5%	8.4%	2.5%	.312	4.36	18.1%	10.2%	247	-0.03	4.30	433	88
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	87
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	87
TJ Nichols R 2024 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP-	3.71	17.0%	9.0%	1.6%	.310	5.34	20.9%	12.4%	223	+1.63	3.71	295	87
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	87
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	86
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	86
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	86
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	86
Buck Farmer R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP-	4.41	16.4%	7.4%	3.2%	.307	4.01	19.6%	10.9%	370	-0.40	3.16	907	85
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	85
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	85
Jordan Jackson R 2022 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP	4.15	16.8%	9.7%	2.2%	.323	5.51	13.1%	1.7%	74	+1.36	4.15	193	85
Trenton Toplikar R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	14.8%	10.1%	2.2%	.248	5.39	16.5%	6.4%	123	+1.07	4.32	232	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	92	20.2%	8.4%	1.23	4.57
Mark Leiter ('90-'01, 5 WAR*)	5.9	118	20.7%*	7.8%*	1.36*	4.61*
Mike Bielecki ('84-'97, 9 WAR*)	6.2	95	18.4%*	9.1%*	1.15*	4.47*
Odell Jones ('75-'88, 2 WAR*)	2.7	78	20.8%*	8.8%*	1.18*	4.62*
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Travis Wood ('17)	5.0	124	18.9%	8.7%	1.09	4.26