Shane Van Dam — OGILVIE

Shane Van Dam P Columbia Fireflies

Age 22 RHP 6'5" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.5 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%20.0%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$41M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4555

CMD3045

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$8M	+$8M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$7M
2032	Arb-1	$5M	+1.2	$6M	+$4M
2033	Arb-2	$6M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$7M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$32M	+$25M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	23	18	93	413	83	28	9	78%	4.1	14.9%	8.0%	6.9%	2.8%	4.53	4.41	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	23	18	93	413	83	28	9	78%	4.1	14.9%	8.0%	6.9%	2.8%	4.53	4.41	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	KC	23	18	93	413	83	28	9	78%	4.1	20.1%	6.8%	13.3%	2.2%	4.53	3.46	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	KC	24	24	129	544	117	46	16	100%	5.4	21.5%	8.6%	13.0%	2.9%	4.44	4.37	+0.8
2028	24	MLB MLE	KC	28	28	158	667	150	55	19	100%	5.6	22.4%	8.3%	14.2%	2.9%	4.31	4.24	+1.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	KC	30	30	175	739	170	60	22	100%	5.8	23.0%	8.1%	14.8%	2.9%	4.22	4.17	+1.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	KC	29	29	175	739	171	60	22	100%	6.0	23.2%	8.1%	15.1%	2.9%	4.17	4.14	+1.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	KC	29	29	172	728	169	59	22	100%	5.9	23.2%	8.1%	15.0%	3.0%	4.18	4.18	+1.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	KC	28	28	167	706	163	59	22	100%	6.0	23.1%	8.3%	14.8%	3.1%	4.23	4.26	+1.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	KC	27	27	160	674	154	57	22	100%	5.9	22.8%	8.5%	14.3%	3.2%	4.33	4.40	+0.9
2034	30	MLB MLE	KC	25	25	150	634	142	56	22	100%	6.0	22.5%	8.8%	13.7%	3.4%	4.48	4.57	+0.6
2035	31	MLB MLE	KC	23	23	140	591	130	54	22	100%	6.1	22.1%	9.2%	12.9%	3.6%	4.66	4.78	+0.2
2036	32	MLB MLE	KC	22	22	130	547	118	52	21	100%	5.9	21.6%	9.6%	12.1%	3.9%	4.86	5.00	-0.1
2037	33	MLB MLE	KC	20	20	119	502	106	50	21	100%	5.9	21.1%	10.0%	11.1%	4.2%	5.09	5.25	-0.5
2027	23	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	63	266	57	23	7	100%	5.2	21.5%	8.6%	13.0%	2.7%	4.32	4.25	+0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	KC	20	20	110	464	104	38	13	100%	5.5	22.4%	8.3%	14.2%	2.7%	4.19	4.12	+0.9
2029	25	MLB CTX	KC	24	24	142	600	138	49	16	100%	5.9	23.0%	8.1%	14.8%	2.7%	4.10	4.05	+1.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	KC	26	26	153	646	150	52	17	100%	5.9	23.2%	8.1%	15.1%	2.7%	4.05	4.02	+1.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	KC	26	26	156	659	153	54	18	100%	6.0	23.2%	8.1%	15.0%	2.7%	4.06	4.06	+1.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	KC	26	26	154	650	150	54	18	100%	5.9	23.1%	8.3%	14.8%	2.8%	4.10	4.13	+1.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	KC	25	25	149	629	144	54	19	100%	6.0	22.8%	8.5%	14.3%	3.0%	4.20	4.27	+0.9
2034	30	MLB CTX	KC	24	24	141	595	134	53	19	100%	5.9	22.5%	8.8%	13.7%	3.2%	4.34	4.43	+0.5
2035	31	MLB CTX	KC	22	22	133	562	124	51	19	100%	6.0	22.1%	9.2%	12.9%	3.4%	4.51	4.63	+0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	KC	20	20	123	519	112	50	19	100%	6.2	21.6%	9.6%	12.1%	3.6%	4.70	4.84	-0.1
2037	33	MLB CTX	KC	19	19	113	477	101	48	18	100%	5.9	21.1%	10.0%	11.1%	3.9%	4.92	5.08	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		243	243	1436	6063	1365	524	183	100%	5.9	22.5%	8.6%	13.9%	3.0%	4.29	3.95	+16.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	190	73	25	100%	5.9	22.5%	8.6%	13.9%	3.0%	4.29	3.95	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		23	18	93	413	61	33	12	78%	4.1	14.9%	8.0%	6.9%	2.8%	4.53	4.41	+8.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	39	200	885	132	71	25	78%	4.1	14.9%	8.0%	6.9%	2.8%	4.53	4.41	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shane Van Dam (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	20.0%	9.0%	3.0%	—	4.25	22.4%	14.1%	462	-0.33	—	—	—
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	87
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	86
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	83
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	83
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	82
Gus Varland R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	19.6%	8.7%	3.2%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.44	2.39	330	82
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	82
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	82
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	81
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	81
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	81
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	81
Ricky DeVito R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.8%	3.2%	.309	4.65	21.5%	2.4%	151	+0.61	4.04	215	81
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	80
Tommy Bergjans R 2015 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP	3.39	17.2%	8.1%	1.3%	.327	4.36	15.7%	9.7%	268	+0.97	3.39	322	80
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	79
Lucas Long R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP-	4.84	14.5%	5.9%	4.0%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.1%	386	-0.90	3.42	441	79
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	79
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	79
Jack Perkins R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	21	SP-	4.34	13.6%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.91	16.4%	7.5%	156	+0.57	4.34	176	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.5	141	22.5%	8.6%	1.25	4.42
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17