Alexander Diaz

P DSL Orioles Orange

Age 19 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs ROK peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	17	ROKDSL Orioles O…	11	11	37	7.47	3.66	18.0%	11.0%	—	K 12.3% · BB 13.8% · FIP 4.79
2027PROJ	19	MLB—	4	4	22	4.92	4.92	20.5%	12.2%	-0.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	20	MLB—	3	3	17	4.75	4.69	21.3%	11.1%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsAdrian Heredia (age 19) · Randry De Leon (age 19) · Moises Castillo (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%20.5%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%8.4%

Proj IP22

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	11	11	37	172	31	19	2	100%	3.4	12.3%	13.8%	-1.6%	1.8%	7.47	4.79	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	11	11	37	172	31	19	2	100%	3.4	12.3%	13.8%	-1.6%	1.8%	7.47	4.79	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	11	11	37	172	31	19	2	100%	3.4	18.0%	11.0%	7.0%	1.2%	7.47	3.66	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	—	4	4	22	93	19	11	3	100%	5.5	20.5%	12.2%	8.4%	3.0%	4.92	4.92	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	—	6	6	35	149	32	16	4	100%	5.9	21.3%	11.1%	10.2%	2.9%	4.75	4.69	+0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	—	3	3	17	72	15	8	2	100%	5.7	21.3%	11.1%	10.2%	2.9%	4.75	4.69	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	17	73	16	8	2	100%	4.3	21.3%	11.1%	10.2%	2.9%	4.75	4.31	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	43	200	844	184	92	23	100%	4.6	21.3%	11.1%	10.2%	2.9%	4.75	4.31	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		11	11	37	172	21	24	3	100%	3.4	12.3%	13.8%	-1.6%	1.8%	7.47	4.79	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	59	200	921	113	127	16	100%	3.4	12.3%	13.8%	-1.6%	1.8%	7.47	4.79	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alexander Diaz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	20.5%	12.2%	3.0%	—	4.69	21.3%	10.2%	35	-0.23	—	—	—
Adrian Heredia R 2024 · 3.77 FIP	19	SP	3.77	21.6%	12.8%	1.6%	.300	5.38	14.9%	1.8%	104	+1.61	3.34	149	86
Randry De Leon R 2024 · 4.49 FIP	19	SP	4.49	18.0%	11.5%	2.6%	.284	5.01	18.6%	1.6%	80	+0.52	4.37	153	85
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	84
Jeisson Cabrera R 2018 · 3.79 FIP	19	SP	3.79	20.0%	13.0%	1.3%	.312	4.42	21.3%	5.8%	51	+0.63	3.78	244	83
Mason Thompson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	19	SP	4.32	18.0%	12.3%	2.2%	.288	4.57	16.6%	4.5%	115	+0.25	3.15	350	83
Carlos Jimenez R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP-	4.08	20.6%	12.9%	2.0%	.274	5.21	20.4%	-0.0%	141	+1.13	4.07	257	83
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	82
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	82
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	82
Alejandro Hidalgo R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	19	SP	4.03	24.5%	12.8%	2.5%	.326	5.91	18.3%	1.5%	143	+1.88	4.03	275	82
Patricio Aquino R 2022 · 4.24 FIP	19	SP	4.24	21.9%	13.2%	2.4%	.321	3.95	15.1%	5.8%	234	-0.29	3.54	313	81
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	81
Felix Arronde R 2022 · 4.74 FIP	19	SP	4.74	20.7%	9.9%	3.9%	.371	4.23	16.7%	7.3%	278	-0.51	4.16	442	81
Miguel Mora R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	19	SP	4.21	17.9%	11.2%	2.2%	.221	4.89	16.6%	-3.6%	107	+0.68	2.95	151	81
Alec Kisena R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	19	SP	4.01	17.6%	11.8%	1.7%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	248	80
Luke Albright R 2021 · 5.77 FIP	21	SP	5.77	16.8%	13.4%	4.4%	.295	5.10	19.4%	5.5%	269	-0.67	4.02	329	80
Luis Maracara R 2024 · 3.75 FIP	16	SP	3.75	18.4%	10.4%	1.6%	.344	6.03	18.9%	1.0%	78	+2.28	3.75	123	80
Juan Carela R 2021 · 4.42 FIP	19	SP	4.42	17.0%	13.5%	1.9%	.333	4.32	20.8%	9.3%	329	-0.10	4.23	455	80
Carson Fulmer R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	21	SP	4.15	21.4%	11.5%	2.5%	.259	4.96	17.1%	4.0%	364	+0.81	3.88	910	80
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	21.0%	11.5%	1.14	4.82
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44