Carlos De La Rosa

Carlos De La Rosa P ACL Giants

Age 18 LHP 5'10" / 193 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.4 · 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 96104vR 112

ERA4.17

FIP4.17

K%23.8%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%15.1%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$42M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF—50

CTRL—50

K†5565

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.8M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$8M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	10	9	32	147	51	10	1	90%	3.2	23.6%	8.5%	15.1%	0.9%	4.73	2.70	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	10	9	32	147	51	10	1	90%	3.2	23.6%	8.5%	15.1%	0.9%	4.73	2.70	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	10	9	32	147	51	10	1	90%	3.2	34.7%	6.8%	27.9%	0.7%	4.73	1.28	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	14	7	44	201	47	27	2	50%	3.1	15.9%	16.8%	-0.9%	1.4%	6.55	4.65	—
YTD	18	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	14	7	44	201	47	27	2	50%	3.1	15.9%	16.8%	-0.9%	1.4%	6.55	4.65	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	18	ROK RAW	SF	14	7	44	201	47	27	2	50%	3.1	23.4%	13.4%	10.0%	1.0%	6.55	3.37	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	SF	9	9	45	191	46	16	5	100%	5.0	24.2%	8.5%	15.7%	2.9%	4.12	4.09	+0.4
2028	20	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	48	201	49	17	6	100%	4.8	24.5%	8.3%	16.2%	2.8%	4.06	4.01	+0.5
2029	21	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	50	211	52	17	6	100%	5.0	24.9%	8.2%	16.7%	2.8%	3.99	3.93	+0.6
2030	22	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	52	222	57	17	6	100%	5.2	25.7%	7.8%	17.9%	2.7%	3.87	3.78	+0.7
2031	23	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	54	230	61	17	6	100%	5.5	26.4%	7.5%	18.9%	2.7%	3.74	3.66	+0.8
2032	24	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	56	236	64	17	6	100%	5.6	27.0%	7.3%	19.7%	2.6%	3.64	3.57	+0.9
2033	25	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	57	239	65	17	6	100%	5.7	27.4%	7.1%	20.2%	2.6%	3.56	3.51	+1.0
2034	26	MLB MLE	SF	9	9	57	239	66	17	6	100%	6.3	27.6%	7.1%	20.5%	2.6%	3.52	3.49	+1.0
2035	27	MLB MLE	SF	9	9	56	236	65	17	6	100%	6.2	27.5%	7.2%	20.4%	2.7%	3.53	3.53	+0.9
2027	19	MLB CTX	SF	4	4	22	93	22	8	2	100%	5.5	24.2%	8.5%	15.7%	2.7%	4.00	3.97	+0.2
2028	20	MLB CTX	SF	7	7	35	148	36	12	4	100%	5.0	24.5%	8.3%	16.2%	2.6%	3.94	3.89	+0.4
2029	21	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	42	177	44	14	5	100%	5.2	24.9%	8.2%	16.7%	2.6%	3.88	3.82	+0.5
2030	22	MLB CTX	SF	9	9	47	198	51	15	5	100%	5.2	25.7%	7.8%	17.9%	2.5%	3.76	3.67	+0.6
2031	23	MLB CTX	SF	9	9	50	211	56	16	5	100%	5.6	26.4%	7.5%	18.9%	2.5%	3.63	3.55	+0.7
2032	24	MLB CTX	SF	9	9	52	220	59	16	5	100%	5.8	27.0%	7.3%	19.7%	2.4%	3.53	3.46	+0.8
2033	25	MLB CTX	SF	9	9	54	228	62	16	6	100%	6.0	27.4%	7.1%	20.2%	2.4%	3.45	3.40	+0.9
2034	26	MLB CTX	SF	9	9	54	228	63	16	6	100%	6.0	27.6%	7.1%	20.5%	2.4%	3.41	3.38	+0.9
2035	27	MLB CTX	SF	9	9	53	224	62	16	6	100%	5.9	27.5%	7.2%	20.4%	2.5%	3.42	3.42	+0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		75	75	410	1729	456	131	43	100%	5.5	26.4%	7.6%	18.8%	2.5%	3.63	3.19	+8.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	844	223	64	21	100%	5.5	26.4%	7.6%	18.8%	2.5%	3.63	3.19	+4.2
Career	—	MLE		24	16	76	348	67	46	4	67%	3.2	19.1%	13.3%	5.9%	1.2%	5.78	3.82	+6.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	42	200	912	175	121	11	67%	3.2	19.1%	13.3%	5.9%	1.2%	5.78	3.82	+2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos De La Rosa (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.17	23.8%	8.7%	2.9%	—	4.01	24.5%	16.2%	143	-0.16	—	—	—
Juan Rojas L 2022 · 3.66 FIP	18	SP-	3.66	23.0%	7.6%	2.8%	.279	4.29	15.9%	2.4%	164	+0.63	2.74	282	91
Blake Townsend L 2021 · 3.78 FIP	20	SP-	3.78	26.7%	11.2%	2.8%	.286	4.01	18.5%	4.8%	96	+0.23	3.34	305	83
James Gonzalez L 2019 · 3.47 FIP	18	SP-	3.47	18.7%	7.8%	1.8%	.327	4.87	17.1%	7.0%	91	+1.40	2.31	487	80
Robinson Ortiz L 2018 · 3.85 FIP	18	SP-	3.85	21.0%	11.0%	2.1%	.312	5.36	15.2%	0.6%	98	+1.51	2.29	275	79
Johan Simon L 2021 · 3.51 FIP	20	SP-	3.51	19.8%	10.2%	1.4%	.302	4.50	17.6%	1.1%	41	+0.99	3.45	177	78
Pablo Aldonis L 2022 · 4.19 FIP	20	SP-	4.19	20.7%	8.0%	3.3%	.324	2.64	21.9%	13.1%	68	-1.55	1.89	135	78
Denny Roman L 2018 · 3.24 FIP	19	SW	3.24	25.6%	6.9%	2.6%	.348	5.55	15.7%	-1.0%	21	+2.31	3.24	109	78
Osvaldo Hernandez L 2017 · 3.58 FIP	19	SP-	3.58	20.4%	8.1%	2.1%	.324	3.33	15.0%	7.7%	142	-0.25	3.10	312	77
Jackson Stoeckinger L 2017 · 3.19 FIP	21	SP-	3.19	18.7%	7.7%	1.2%	.365	4.82	13.1%	7.3%	157	+1.63	3.19	184	74
Jacob Lopez L 2018 · 3.66 FIP	20	SW	3.66	24.3%	7.9%	2.9%	.302	3.53	30.4%	21.6%	55	-0.13	3.49	534	73
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	72
Brock Selvidge L 2022 · 3.70 FIP	19	SP-	3.70	19.9%	11.7%	1.5%	.321	3.79	17.8%	7.6%	287	+0.09	3.07	330	72
Ryan Wilson L 2017 · 3.43 FIP	20	SP-	3.43	18.5%	8.8%	1.4%	.395	4.12	18.8%	7.9%	155	+0.69	3.43	222	71
Bodi Rascon L 2021 · 4.18 FIP	20	SP-	4.18	15.4%	8.8%	2.3%	.271	5.30	15.7%	3.9%	143	+1.12	4.18	218	70
Frankeli Arias L 2022 · 3.87 FIP	19	SW	3.87	16.9%	7.5%	2.3%	.281	5.03	15.8%	3.5%	214	+1.16	3.87	298	70
Michael Kennedy L 2023 · 3.50 FIP	18	SP-	3.50	21.9%	13.9%	0.9%	.250	4.61	18.1%	8.2%	223	+1.11	3.50	265	70
Jaylen Nowlin L 2022 · 3.45 FIP	21	SP-	3.45	26.8%	13.3%	1.7%	.352	4.98	19.1%	6.1%	254	+1.53	3.45	372	70
Dalton Lehnen L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	21	SP	3.95	19.8%	7.6%	2.8%	.398	4.49	15.8%	2.9%	189	+0.54	3.95	222	70
Alex Ayala Jr. L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	20	SW	4.20	20.7%	12.3%	2.3%	.271	5.99	13.6%	-3.1%	71	+1.79	4.20	128	70
Luke Little L 2021 · 4.02 FIP	20	SP-	4.02	25.8%	12.5%	2.8%	.200	2.91	27.9%	12.2%	155	-1.11	2.76	276	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	49	26.1%	7.7%	1.05	3.78
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
JT Chargois ('24)	1.2	33	23.3%	9.3%	0.97	3.35
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.5	52	29.4%	6.6%	1.19	3.46
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81