Jose Cerice

IF Quad Cities River Bandits
Age 22 R/R 6'2" / 192 lbs A+ HR -15%K -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
Overview
A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035
OGV OFP35OGV rank#498ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202419ROKDSL Royals Ve…179.314/.384/.4211443—.198/.266/.253
202520A/ROKKC235.326/.378/.4423682—.277/.326/.383
202621A+KC419.272/.394/.37161991—.250/.355/.331
2027PROJMLE22MLBKC1.238/.319/.32100870.0
2028PROJ35% MLB23MLBKC126.242/.323/.33822930.1
2029PROJ46% MLB24MLBKC189.245/.325/.35033970.3
Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$3M2033Arb-2$4M2034Arb-3$4M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+
K%94
Whiff%91
Z-Con%91
Speed67
wOBA63
wRC+61
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 13, comp-based) · star 5% · didn't stick 76%
CompsLuJames Groover (age 22) · Jake Elmore (age 22) · Austin Dean (age 22)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†87
AVG/OBP/SLG.238 / .319 / .321
PA1
HR0
K%18
BB%6
BABIP284
ISO81
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -3.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-3BATRUN: +0.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -0.9 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-1FLDPOS: +0.0 runs (Positional adjustment)+0POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.20+0.2WAR
0.00.51.00.00.10.30.50.50.50.40.327282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$8M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.3$1M+$0.4M
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.5$2M+$1.0M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.5$1M+$0.9M
2032Arb-1$3M+0.5$1M+$0.0M (cut)
2033Arb-2$4M+0.4$1M+$0.0M (cut)
2034Arb-3$4M+0.3$0.7M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $3M $7M +$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202419 ROKDSL Royals Ventura — 179159 50831 10208 42 314384421806 107350 116 360 43 — — — — — —
202520 AColumbia Fireflies — 126116 35501 3156 30 302352371723 69337 122 327 71 — — — — — —
202520 ROKACL Royals — 10999 35912 3126 30 354407525933 172384 113 410 95 — — — — — —
202621 A+Quad Cities River Bandits — 419345 941226 396030 196 272394371765 99312 149 352 91 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202419 ROK MLEDSL Royals Ventura — 179162 32520 7248 42 198266253519 56224 134 232 43 — — — — — —
202520 A MLEColumbia Fireflies — 126117 31501 2216 30 265312333645 68300 172 273 71 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEACL Royals — 109100 29712 2186 30 290343440783 150306 172 309 95 — — — — — —
202621 A+ MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 419356 891025 287630 196 250355331687 81291 187 303 91 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEDSL Royals Ventura — 179162 32520 7248 42 198266253519 56229 134 232 43 — — — — — —
202419 ROK RAWDSL Royals Ventura — 179159 50831 10208 42 314384421806 107350 116 360 43 — — — — — —
202520 A MLE2 teams — 235217 571112 43812 60 263313350664 88307 162 290 82 — — — — — —
202520 A RAW2 teams — 235215 701413 62712 60 326378442820 116358 113 366 82 — — — — — —
202621 A+ MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 419356 891025 287630 196 250355331687 81302 187 303 91 — — — — — —
202621 A+ RAWQuad Cities River Bandits — 419345 941226 396030 196 272394371765 99312 149 352 91 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEDSL Royals Ventura — 179162 32520 7248 42 198266253519 56224 134 232 43 — — — — — —
202520 A MLE2 teams — 235217 571112 43812 60 263313350664 88303 162 290 82 — — — — — —
202621 A+ MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 419358 891025 287630 196 249355330685 81291 187 303 91 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202419 ROK MLEDSL Royals Ventura — 179162 32520 7248 42 198266253519 56224 134 232 43 — — — — — —
202520 A MLE2 teams — 235217 571112 43812 60 263313350664 88303 162 290 82 — — — — — —
202621 A+ MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 419358 891025 287630 196 249355330685 81291 187 303 91 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202722 MLB MLEKC 0% 529468 1121726 309526 113 240321326647 86286 186 297 87 -8 +1 -2 +0 +11 0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202722 MLB CTXKC 0% 11 0000 000 00 238319321640 83284 00 294 87 -0 +0 -0 +0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202823 MLB MLEKC 35% 364322 801226 226517 72 244325344669 99287 186 305 93 -3 +1 -1 +0 +8 0.4
202924 MLB MLEKC 46% 408362 901427 257318 72 247328356684 109288 186 311 97 -2 +1 -1 +0 +9 0.7
203025 MLB MLEKC 52% 455403 1001529 298220 72 248329364693 115289 186 314 99 -1 +1 -1 +0 +10 0.9
203126 MLB MLEKC 54% 481427 10516210 318820 72 249329367696 119289 186 315 99 -0 +1 -1 +0 +10 1.0
203227 MLB MLEKC 54% 485431 10617210 329019 72 247327367694 120288 197 314 99 -1 +1 -1 +0 +11 1.0
203328 MLB MLEKC 54% 482428 10516210 329119 52 245325362687 117287 197 311 97 -2 +0 -2 +0 +10 0.7
203429 MLB MLEKC 53% 473421 1021629 319018 52 243322356678 113286 197 308 94 -3 +0 -2 +0 +10 0.5
203530 MLB MLEKC 52% 461410 991529 308918 42 240319347666 108284 197 303 91 -5 +0 -3 +0 +10 0.2
203631 MLB MLEKC 52% 445397 931418 288817 25 236314337651 102281 206 297 87 -7 -2 -4 +0 +10 -0.3
202823 MLB CTXKC 35% 126112 28412 7226 21 242323338661 96285 176 302 93 -1 +0 -0 +0 +3 0.1
202924 MLB CTXKC 46% 189167 41613 12348 31 245325350675 105286 186 307 97 -1 +0 -1 +0 +4 0.3
203025 MLB CTXKC 52% 235208 51814 154210 41 246326356683 111286 186 310 99 -0 +0 -1 +0 +5 0.5
203126 MLB CTXKC 54% 261231 57915 174811 41 246326360686 114286 187 311 99 -0 +0 -1 +0 +6 0.5
203227 MLB CTXKC 54% 263234 57915 174910 41 244325359684 115286 196 310 99 -0 +0 -1 +0 +6 0.5
203328 MLB CTXKC 54% 262233 56915 174910 31 243323354677 112285 196 307 97 -1 +0 -1 +0 +6 0.4
203429 MLB CTXKC 53% 251223 54815 164810 21 240320348668 108284 196 304 94 -2 +0 -1 +0 +5 0.3
203530 MLB CTXKC 52% 242215 51814 16479 21 237316340657 103282 197 299 91 -3 +0 -2 +0 +5 0.1
203631 MLB CTXKC 52% 232206 48714 15469 13 233311331642 98279 206 293 87 -4 -1 -2 +0 +5 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 20611829 44368937 13238583 2511 242322350672 108287 196 305 92 -11 +1 -8 +0 +45 2.6
/ 162G— A+C — 650577 14021312 4212126 83 243323352675 109286 196 305 92 -4 +0 -3 +0 +14 0.8
Career— MLE — 50974522 11031682387 311932226 8430 244324349673 105288 186 304 92 -26 +2 -17 +0 +92 5.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650577 14021311 4011929 114 243324347671 104287 186 304 92 -4 +0 -3 +0 +14 0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 419 PAwOBA .346 → .303 (−43)K% 14.3% → 18.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.32%÷1.000×1.270——18.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.31%÷1.000×0.710—×1.0276.79%
HBP% /PA7.16%—×0.790—×1.0275.81%
Singles /BIP25.96%÷1.000×0.920×1.010×1.02724.78%
Doubles /BIP4.21%÷1.000×0.810×1.010×1.0273.54%
Triples /BIP0.70%÷1.000×0.850×1.010×1.0270.62%
Home runs /BIP2.11%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0271.73%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .346 → .303; ISO .099 → .084; BABIP .312 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AColumbia Fireflies · 126 PAwOBA .321 → .273 (−48)K% 11.9% → 16.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.90%÷0.982×1.360——16.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA2.38%÷1.006×0.690—×1.0301.68%
HBP% /PA4.76%—×0.780—×1.0303.83%
Singles /BIP28.71%÷1.099×0.920×1.022×1.03025.31%
Doubles /BIP4.95%÷0.913×0.830×1.022×1.0304.74%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.937×0.910×1.022×1.0300.00%
Home runs /BIP0.99%÷1.086×0.800—×1.0300.75%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 120, 2B 83, 3B 87, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .321 → .273; ISO .069 → .059; BABIP .337 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Royals · 109 PAwOBA .402 → .309 (−93)K% 11.0% → 16.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.01%÷0.985×1.440——16.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA2.75%÷0.971×0.620—×0.9951.75%
HBP% /PA5.50%—×0.720—×0.9953.94%
Singles /BIP26.44%÷1.019×0.820×1.028×0.99521.75%
Doubles /BIP10.34%÷0.975×0.720×1.028×0.9957.81%
Triples /BIP1.15%÷1.070×0.720×1.028×0.9950.79%
Home runs /BIP2.30%÷0.939×0.780—×0.9951.90%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 104, 2B 95, 3B 114, K 97, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.

Result: wOBA .402 → .309; ISO .172 → .130; BABIP .384 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Royals Ventura · 179 PAwOBA .355 → .232 (−123)K% 11.2% → 13.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.17%÷1.000×1.220——13.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.59%÷1.022×0.700—×0.9953.81%
HBP% /PA4.47%—×0.700—×0.9953.11%
Singles /BIP27.34%÷1.014×0.680×0.983×0.99517.93%
Doubles /BIP5.76%÷0.982×0.600×0.983×0.9953.44%
Triples /BIP2.16%÷1.012×0.600×0.983×0.9951.25%
Home runs /BIP0.72%÷0.994×0.470—×0.9950.34%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 103, 2B 96, 3B 102, K 100, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .355 → .232; ISO .107 → .062; BABIP .350 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).