Josh Kasevich

SS Buffalo Bisons
Age 26 R/R 6'1" / 200 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
Overview
AAAPROSPECTPre-ArbFA 2033
OGV OFP35OGV rank#1533ETA2029MLB%10%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202423AAA/AATOR566.296/.350/.38561387—.282/.322/.352
202524AAA/A/ROK/INTL2 orgs234.236/.365/.2460361—.197/.278/.210
202625AAATOR572.282/.365/.3634887—.267/.330/.336
2027PROJ10% MLB26MLBTOR16.259/.319/.32900850.0
2028PROJ38% MLB27MLBTOR84.257/.319/.33111850.1
2029PROJ52% MLB28MLBTOR132.255/.317/.33011840.1
Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$0.6M2031Arb-2$0.7M2032Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Whiff%96
Z-Con%94
K%93
Chase%88
Max EV71
Speed55
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.6, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 90%
CompsLuis Martinez (age 27) · Adeiny Hechavarría (age 26) · Angel Sanchez (age 27)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†85
AVG/OBP/SLG.259 / .319 / .329
PA16
HR0
K%12
BB%6
BABIP303
ISO67
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-3BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -0.2 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: +1.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.30+0.3WAR
0.00.51.00.00.10.10.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2027
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2032
First FA Year   2033
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.0$0.1M+$0.0M (cut)
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.4M+$0.0M (cut)
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2030Arb-1$0.6M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2031Arb-2$0.7M———
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $1M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202221 ADunedin Blue Jays — 122107 28800 1193 02 262347336684 75283 79 314 73 — — — — — —
202322 A+Vancouver Canadians — 383334 951504 38416 112 284368365733 81310 1110 332 78 — — — — — —
202423 AAABuffalo Bisons — 173157 51803 14251 30 325384433817 108369 148 365 112 — — — — — —
202423 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 393363 1032003 26422 101 284335364699 80312 117 315 76 — — — — — —
202524 AAABuffalo Bisons — 11498 17100 13201 02 173277184460 10212 1811 224 15 — — — — — —
202524 ADunedin Blue Jays — 2724 9100 330 00 375444417861 42429 1111 393 101 — — — — — —
202524 ROKFCL Blue Jays — 1914 5000 510 01 357526357883 385 526 422 92 — — — — — —
202524 INTLGlendale Desert Dogs — 7455 14000 17110 32 255431255685 304 1523 331 110 — — — — — —
202625 AAABuffalo Bisons — 572504 1422334 58658 84 282365363728 81316 1110 333 87 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202221 A MLEDunedin Blue Jays — 122111 27700 7123 02 243306306612 63269 106 276 73 — — — — — —
202322 A+ MLEVancouver Canadians — 383344 881403 28546 112 256323323645 67283 147 284 78 — — — — — —
202423 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 173161 51802 10301 30 317360404764 87369 176 333 112 — — — — — —
202423 AA MLENew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 393371 991702 18512 101 267304329633 62302 135 281 76 — — — — — —
202524 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 114101 16100 10241 02 158241168409 10193 219 191 15 — — — — — —
202524 A MLEDunedin Blue Jays — 2725 8100 240 00 320370360730 40378 157 318 101 — — — — — —
202524 ROK MLEFCL Blue Jays — 1916 4000 310 01 250368250618 290 516 304 92 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 572521 1392133 41788 84 267330336666 69306 147 297 87 — — — — — —
202221 A MLEDunedin Blue Jays — 122111 27700 7123 02 243306306612 63270 106 276 73 — — — — — —
202221 A RAWDunedin Blue Jays — 122107 28800 1193 02 262347336684 75283 79 314 73 — — — — — —
202322 A+ MLEVancouver Canadians — 383344 881403 28546 112 256323323645 67291 147 284 78 — — — — — —
202322 A+ RAWVancouver Canadians — 383334 951504 38416 112 284368365733 81310 1110 332 78 — — — — — —
202423 AA MLE2 teams — 566532 1502504 28813 131 282321352673 70324 145 297 87 — — — — — —
202423 AA RAW2 teams — 566520 1542806 40673 131 296350385735 88329 127 331 87 — — — — — —
202524 AAA MLE4 teams — 234208 40200 21441 35 192270202471 10238 199 226 39 — — — — — —
202524 AAA RAW4 teams — 234191 45200 38351 35 236365246611 10281 1516 294 39 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 572521 1392133 41788 84 267330336666 69308 147 297 87 — — — — — —
202625 AAA RAWBuffalo Bisons — 572504 1422334 58658 84 282365363728 81316 1110 333 87 — — — — — —
202221 A MLEDunedin Blue Jays — 122111 27700 7123 02 243306306612 63269 106 276 73 — — — — — —
202322 A+ MLEVancouver Canadians — 383346 881403 28546 112 254323321644 66283 147 284 78 — — — — — —
202423 AA MLE2 teams — 566530 1502504 28813 131 283321353674 70322 145 297 87 — — — — — —
202524 AAA MLE4 teams — 234210 40200 21441 35 190270200470 10236 199 226 39 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 572518 1392133 41788 84 268330338668 69306 147 297 87 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202423 AA MLE2 teams — 566530 1502504 28813 131 283321353674 70322 145 297 87 — — — — — —
202524 AAA MLE4 teams — 234210 40200 21441 35 190270200470 10236 199 226 39 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 572518 1392133 41788 84 268330338668 69306 147 297 87 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202726 MLB MLETOR 10% 380347 891422 26594 52 258318328646 70301 167 294 85 -7 +0 -0 +4 +8 0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202726 MLB CTXTOR 10% 1615 4100 120 00 259319329648 70303 126 295 85 -0 +0 -0 +0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202827 MLB MLETOR 38% 225205 53812 16362 31 256318329647 73301 167 294 85 -4 +0 -0 +2 +5 0.3
202928 MLB MLETOR 52% 253230 58912 18423 21 254316329645 75300 177 293 84 -5 +0 -1 +3 +5 0.3
203029 MLB MLETOR 57% 263239 601012 19453 21 252314327641 75299 177 291 83 -5 +0 -2 +3 +6 0.2
203130 MLB MLETOR 60% 269245 611012 19473 11 249311324635 75297 177 288 81 -6 -0 -2 +3 +6 0.0
202827 MLB CTXTOR 38% 8477 20301 6131 10 257319331649 73302 157 295 85 -1 +0 -0 +1 +2 0.1
202928 MLB CTXTOR 52% 132121 31511 9221 11 255317330647 75301 177 294 84 -2 -0 -1 +1 +3 0.1
203029 MLB CTXTOR 57% 150136 35611 11252 11 253314328643 76300 177 292 83 -3 -0 -1 +2 +3 0.1
203130 MLB CTXTOR 60% 162147 37611 12282 01 250311325637 75298 177 289 81 -4 -0 -1 +2 +4 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 528481 1232034 38886 33 256318335653 79304 177 292 80 -11 -1 -3 +6 +11 0.3
/ 162G— A+C — 650592 1522545 471087 44 257319338657 81304 177 292 80 -13 -1 -4 +7 +14 0.4
Career— MLE — 30422776 713112819 20846334 4519 257316323640 67300 157 287 80 -23 +0 -6 +12 +25 0.9
/ 162G— MLE — 650593 1532424 44997 104 258316325642 67302 157 287 80 -13 +0 -3 +7 +14 0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAABuffalo Bisons · 572 PAwOBA .326 → .297 (−29)K% 11.4% → 13.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.36%÷1.000×1.200——13.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.14%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0337.23%
HBP% /PA1.40%—×0.940—×1.0331.36%
Singles /BIP25.51%÷1.000×0.930×1.028×1.03325.19%
Doubles /BIP5.24%÷1.000×0.830×1.028×1.0334.62%
Triples /BIP0.68%÷1.000×0.970×1.028×1.0330.70%
Home runs /BIP0.91%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0330.66%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.

Result: wOBA .326 → .297; ISO .081 → .071; BABIP .316 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAABuffalo Bisons · 114 PAwOBA .223 → .191 (−32)K% 17.5% → 21.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.54%÷0.988×1.200——21.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.40%÷0.984×0.690—×1.0488.38%
HBP% /PA0.88%—×0.940—×1.0480.86%
Singles /BIP20.51%÷1.007×0.930×0.950×1.04818.86%
Doubles /BIP1.28%÷1.098×0.830×0.950×1.0480.97%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.986×0.970×0.950×1.0480.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.847×0.700—×1.0480.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 101, 2B 120, 3B 97, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .223 → .191; ISO .010 → .008; BABIP .212 → .193. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADunedin Blue Jays · 27 PAwOBA .384 → .318 (−66)K% 11.1% → 15.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.11%÷0.968×1.360——15.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.11%÷1.015×0.690—×0.9807.40%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780—×0.9800.00%
Singles /BIP38.10%÷1.006×0.920—×0.98034.13%
Doubles /BIP4.76%÷1.047×0.830—×0.9803.70%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.910—×0.9800.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.284×0.800—×0.9800.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 157, 1B 101, 2B 109, 3B 80, K 94, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .384 → .318; ISO .042 → .032; BABIP .429 → .378. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 19 PAwOBA .413 → .304 (−110)K% 5.3% → 7.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA5.26%÷1.002×1.440——7.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA26.32%÷1.001×0.620—×0.95515.56%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9550.00%
Singles /BIP38.46%÷1.038×0.820—×0.95529.01%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷0.956×0.720—×0.9550.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.720—×0.9550.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.077×0.780—×0.9550.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 108, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 100, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .413 → .304; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .385 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 393 PAwOBA .308 → .281 (−27)K% 10.7% → 13.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA10.69%÷0.995×1.220——13.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.36%÷0.990×0.700—×1.0274.62%
HBP% /PA0.51%—×0.850—×1.0270.44%
Singles /BIP24.92%÷1.015×0.970×1.016×1.02724.86%
Doubles /BIP6.23%÷1.051×0.860×1.016×1.0275.32%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.950×1.016×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP0.93%÷1.145×0.780—×1.0270.65%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 103, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.

Result: wOBA .308 → .281; ISO .080 → .065; BABIP .312 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAABuffalo Bisons · 173 PAwOBA .358 → .333 (−25)K% 14.5% → 17.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.45%÷1.004×1.200——17.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.09%÷1.028×0.690—×1.0505.70%
HBP% /PA0.58%—×0.940—×1.0500.57%
Singles /BIP30.30%÷0.988×0.930×1.031×1.05030.89%
Doubles /BIP6.06%÷0.959×0.830×1.031×1.0505.68%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970×1.031×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP2.27%÷0.990×0.700—×1.0501.69%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 98, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .358 → .333; ISO .108 → .091; BABIP .369 → .369. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Vancouver Canadians · 383 PAwOBA .328 → .284 (−44)K% 10.7% → 14.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA10.70%÷1.028×1.350——14.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.92%÷0.992×0.710—×1.0127.18%
HBP% /PA1.57%—×0.810—×1.0121.28%
Singles /BIP25.94%÷1.006×0.910×1.008×1.01223.95%
Doubles /BIP5.12%÷0.949×0.830×1.008×1.0124.57%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.820×1.008×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP1.37%÷1.253×0.830—×1.0120.91%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 151, 1B 101, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 106, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .328 → .284; ISO .081 → .065; BABIP .310 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADunedin Blue Jays · 122 PAwOBA .308 → .276 (−32)K% 7.4% → 9.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA7.38%÷1.017×1.360——9.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.02%÷1.050×0.690—×1.0156.01%
HBP% /PA2.46%—×0.780—×1.0151.95%
Singles /BIP20.41%÷1.005×0.920×1.045×1.01519.81%
Doubles /BIP8.16%÷0.983×0.830×1.045×1.0157.31%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.910×1.045×1.0150.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.916×0.800—×1.0150.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 101, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.

Result: wOBA .308 → .276; ISO .075 → .069; BABIP .283 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .