Jose De La Rosa (P, DSL Padres Brown) prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jose De La Rosa P DSL Padres Brown

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 175 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.64

FIP5.64

K%20.0%

BB%17.4%

K-BB%2.5%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	11	11	36	177	27	31	3	100%	3.2	10.4%	21.9%	-11.5%	2.6%	6.81	6.43	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	11	11	36	177	27	31	3	100%	3.2	10.4%	21.9%	-11.5%	2.6%	6.81	6.43	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	11	11	36	177	27	31	3	100%	3.2	15.3%	17.5%	-2.3%	1.7%	6.81	5.29	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	21	MLB	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.0%	17.4%	2.5%	3.0%	5.64	5.64	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SD	6	6	34	142	30	21	4	100%	5.6	21.3%	14.8%	6.6%	2.9%	5.30	5.16	-0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	SD	3	3	17	72	15	11	2	100%	5.7	21.3%	14.8%	6.6%	2.9%	5.30	5.16	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	17	70	15	10	2	100%	5.5	21.3%	14.8%	6.6%	2.9%	5.30	4.78	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	39	200	844	181	121	24	100%	5.1	21.3%	14.8%	6.6%	2.9%	5.30	4.78	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		11	11	36	177	18	39	5	100%	3.2	10.4%	21.9%	-11.5%	2.6%	6.81	6.43	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	62	200	993	103	217	26	100%	3.2	10.4%	21.9%	-11.5%	2.6%	6.81	6.43	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose De La Rosa (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.64	20.0%	17.4%	3.0%	—	5.16	21.3%	6.6%	34	-0.48	—	—	—
Trevor Bauer R 2012 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP	4.79	22.1%	16.9%	2.6%	.267	4.08	21.8%	11.8%	346	-0.71	2.16	1,298	85
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.39	20.2%	8.6%	215	-1.21	4.29	257	84
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.81	21.3%	8.0%	253	-0.15	3.82	323	83
Chen-Wei Lin R 2023 · 6.48 FIP	21	SP	6.48	21.3%	22.0%	4.4%	.379	3.81	20.5%	8.4%	257	-2.67	3.05	269	82
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	80
Luke Albright R 2021 · 5.77 FIP	21	SP	5.77	16.8%	13.4%	4.4%	.295	5.10	19.4%	5.5%	269	-0.67	4.02	329	80
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	80
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	80
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.38	205	80
Holt Jones R 2022 · 6.63 FIP	23	SP	6.63	17.9%	19.5%	4.7%	.296	4.64	18.4%	0.8%	147	-1.99	4.21	254	79
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	79
Jose Diaz R 2021 · 5.27 FIP	21	SP	5.27	16.5%	17.5%	2.5%	.357	5.01	17.6%	0.9%	89	-0.26	3.91	189	79
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	3.91	23.8%	12.0%	201	-1.65	3.54	273	78
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.62	17.1%	7.4%	343	-0.97	4.16	409	78
Mason Denaburg R 2022 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	16.3%	16.4%	2.1%	.278	5.84	13.1%	-7.7%	92	+0.89	4.48	151	78
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	78
Victor Mederos R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	21	SP	4.69	15.6%	14.0%	2.1%	.286	5.19	16.4%	5.7%	301	+0.50	3.73	394	78
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.4%	8.5%	211	-0.23	3.28	265	77
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	77
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	20.8%	15.8%	1.14	5.43
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88