Erny Orellana

OF DSL LAD Mega

Age 20 R/R 6'0" / 183 lbs ROK HR +8%BB -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	17	ROKDSL LAD Bauti…	109	.167/.312/.256	1	3	7	—	.096/.220/.128
2025	18	ROKDSL LAD Mega	160	.254/.390/.423	4	6	40	—	.153/.270/.241
2026	19	ROKDSL LAD Mega	181	.257/.365/.467	4	6	39	—	.151/.242/.264
2027PROJMLE	20	MLBLAD	291	.207/.280/.303	3	5	66	-0.2
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBLAD	49	.207/.281/.309	1	1	71	-0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLBLAD	115	.211/.285/.320	2	2	75	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Whiff%91

K%87

Z-Con%87

ISO86

Speed84

wOBA54

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJose Meza (age 20) · Albertson Asigen (age 20) · Ryan Vega (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 94 proj PA

wRC+†66

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .277 / .300

PA94

HR1

K%25

BB%8

ISO96

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL LAD Bautista	—	109	90	15	5	0	1	13	21	6	3	1	167	312	256	567	89	206	19	12	276	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL LAD Mega	—	160	130	33	10	0	4	24	34	5	6	2	254	390	423	813	169	312	21	15	367	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	DSL LAD Mega	—	181	152	39	14	3	4	22	24	4	6	1	257	365	467	832	211	276	13	12	363	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	109	94	9	3	0	0	9	26	6	3	1	96	220	128	348	32	134	24	8	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	—	160	137	21	6	0	2	17	43	5	6	2	153	270	241	511	88	192	27	11	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	—	181	159	24	8	2	2	15	29	4	6	1	151	242	264	506	113	164	16	8	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	109	94	9	3	0	0	9	26	6	3	1	96	220	128	348	32	132	24	8	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	—	109	90	15	5	0	1	13	21	6	3	1	167	312	256	567	89	206	19	12	276	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	—	160	137	21	6	0	2	17	43	5	6	2	153	270	241	511	88	204	27	11	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	—	160	130	33	10	0	4	24	34	5	6	2	254	390	423	813	169	312	21	15	367	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	—	181	159	24	8	2	2	15	29	4	6	1	151	242	264	506	113	168	16	8	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	—	181	152	39	14	3	4	22	24	4	6	1	257	365	467	832	211	276	13	12	363	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	109	93	9	3	0	0	9	26	6	3	1	97	220	129	349	32	134	24	8	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	—	160	137	21	6	0	2	17	43	5	6	2	153	270	241	511	88	192	27	11	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	—	181	160	24	8	2	2	15	29	4	6	1	150	242	263	504	113	164	16	8	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	109	93	9	3	0	0	9	26	6	3	1	97	220	129	349	32	134	24	8	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	—	160	137	21	6	0	2	17	43	5	6	2	153	270	241	511	88	192	27	11	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	—	181	160	24	8	2	2	15	29	4	6	1	150	242	263	504	113	164	16	8	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	LAD	0%	291	263	54	11	2	3	22	73	4	5	1	207	280	303	583	96	271	25	8	266	66	-12	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	LAD	34%	143	129	28	6	1	2	11	35	2	3	1	212	285	317	601	105	273	24	8	273	71	-5	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.3
2029	22	MLB MLE	LAD	48%	237	213	46	9	2	4	19	58	3	4	1	215	289	328	616	112	275	24	8	279	75	-7	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.3
2028	21	MLB CTX	LAD	34%	49	44	9	2	0	1	4	12	1	1	0	207	281	309	590	102	266	24	8	268	71	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	LAD	48%	115	103	22	4	1	2	9	28	2	2	1	211	285	320	605	109	268	24	8	274	75	-3	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	164	147	31	6	1	3	13	40	3	3	1	211	288	327	615	116	267	24	8	273	52	-5	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	123	24	4	12	52	159	12	12	4	211	289	328	617	117	267	24	8	273	52	-20	+1	+0	-4	+14	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	924	818	146	36	6	11	78	214	21	24	6	178	267	278	545	99	225	23	8	246	52	-16	+1	+0	-3	+10	-0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	102	25	4	8	55	151	15	17	4	177	267	277	543	99	224	23	8	246	52	-22	+1	+0	-4	+14	-1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL LAD Mega · 181 PAwOBA .360 → .226 (−134)K% 13.3% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.26%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	16.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.15%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.995	8.47%
HBP% /PA	2.21%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	1.54%
Singles /BIP	14.06%	÷1.000	×0.680	×0.950	×0.995	9.04%
Doubles /BIP	10.94%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.950	×0.995	6.20%
Triples /BIP	2.34%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.950	×0.995	1.33%
Home runs /BIP	3.12%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×0.995	1.46%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .360 → .226; ISO .211 → .116; BABIP .276 → .164. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL LAD Mega · 160 PAwOBA .361 → .227 (−134)K% 21.2% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.25%	÷0.957	×1.220	—	—	27.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.00%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.008	10.58%
HBP% /PA	3.12%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	2.20%
Singles /BIP	19.79%	÷0.985	×0.680	×0.963	×1.008	13.25%
Doubles /BIP	10.42%	÷1.050	×0.600	×0.963	×1.008	5.77%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.988	×0.600	×0.963	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.17%	÷1.011	×0.470	—	×1.008	1.95%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 97, 2B 110, 3B 98, K 91, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.

Result: wOBA .361 → .227; ISO .169 → .086; BABIP .312 → .192. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL LAD Bautista · 109 PAwOBA .270 → .179 (−91)K% 19.3% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.27%	÷0.994	×1.220	—	—	23.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.93%	÷1.051	×0.700	—	×1.022	8.12%
HBP% /PA	5.50%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	3.94%
Singles /BIP	13.04%	÷0.998	×0.680	×0.974	×1.022	8.85%
Doubles /BIP	7.25%	÷0.963	×0.600	×0.974	×1.022	4.50%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.600	×0.974	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.45%	÷1.059	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.66%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 100, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 99, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.

Result: wOBA .270 → .179; ISO .089 → .050; BABIP .206 → .134. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#4James Mouton'94-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	18	109	235*	314*	329*	-11	-0	0.7	1.0
/162	664	7	40	-4.2	-0.1	0.3	pk7: 1
#5Jimmy Stewart'63-'73 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,602 PA	2.4	1,602	8	38	235*	309*	329*	-1	+2	-0.2	0.5
/162	664	3	16	-0.4	+0.7	-0.1	pk7: 1
#6Dave McCarty'93-'05 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,647 PA	2.5	1,647	36	9	233*	295*	365*	-26	+16	-1.1	0.5
/162	664	15	4	-10.5	+6.6	-0.4	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.4	258	3	4	213	282	318	-2	+0	-0.3	-0.2
/162	664	9	12	-4.0	+0.0	-0.8	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Erny Orellana (OGILVIE)	20	40	40	50	55	205/277/300	95	271	1	2	25%	8%	66	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A	20	37→42	39→40	48→50	44	183/255/263	80	245	6	10	27%	7%	49	-2.4	199/291/294	95	292	8	8	32%	10%	70	-0.8	186/290/280	94	280	9	10	33%	11%	66	-0.7
✕Albertson Asigen 2022 · A	20	41	38→40	53→55	45	197/253/283	86	255	5	6	24%	7%	51	-2.2	212/290/283	71	299	4	17	27%	9%	66	-1.1	209/299/294	85	336	7	27	36%	9%	69	-0.3
✕Ryan Vega 2017 · A	20	44	40	54→45	41	212/260/305	93	270	8	9	24%	5%	59	-1.6	212/271/300	88	287	7	7	27%	6%	63	-1.4	190/257/269	79	268	7	6	30%	7%	50	-1.3
✕Pablo Olivares 2018 · A	20	44	36→40	49→50	43	207/279/278	72	283	3	10	26%	6%	61	-1.5	227/298/305	78	294	6	13	23%	6%	74	-0.5	220/297/294	73	283	5	14	22%	7%	68	-0.5
✕Quincy Latimore 2009 · A	20	44→42	40→50	51→50	45	213/277/306	93	262	7	12	21%	6%	67	-1.1	210/253/334	124	295	12	6	32%	4%	63	-1.3	218/269/348	130	279	14	10	26%	6%	70	-0.5
✕Robert Gonzalez 2021 · A	20	40	39→40	54→60	52	186/296/275	89	275	5	8	30%	12%	68	-1.0	190/293/264	74	252	5	17	24%	10%	64	-1.3	151/292/187	36	182	3	30	16%	14%	48	-0.8
✕Edwin Sanchez 2024 · A	19	37	39→40	47→50	53	179/286/263	84	239	7	8	26%	11%	62	-1.4	187/321/279	92	246	7	9	24%	13%	80	-0.2	153/326/245	92	196	8	11	22%	16%	76	-0.1
✕Ricardo Rosario 2023 · A	20	39	36→40	50→55	44	186/249/258	71	249	3	12	26%	7%	45	-2.7	204/271/288	84	283	7	19	28%	7%	60	-1.6	202/282/289	86	263	10	29	26%	8%	63	-0.7
✕Carlos Caro 2024 · A	19	44	41→45	48→55	46	210/298/307	97	285	8	13	27%	8%	76	-0.4	196/272/275	79	283	6	15	30%	8%	58	-1.7	182/259/257	76	270	7	19	33%	8%	46	-1.0
✕Cesar Quintas 2022 · A	19	44→48	38→45	50→45	45	209/292/292	83	270	5	7	23%	7%	70	-0.8	200/279/275	75	302	5	5	33%	6%	61	-1.5	200/288/307	107	285	10	6	31%	6%	70	-0.5
✕Zack Larson 2014 · A	20	46→36	41→45	53→50	41	221/279/318	97	292	8	13	26%	6%	70	-0.9	201/256/267	66	276	3	10	27%	6%	49	-2.4	183/239/233	50	254	1	10	26%	5%	34	-1.9
✕Jesus Hernandez 2024 · A	20	42	37→40	51→55	53	199/281/271	72	257	5	13	23%	10%	60	-1.6	199/278/287	88	284	6	18	29%	9%	63	-1.4	199/280/289	90	282	6	24	29%	9%	62	-0.7
✕Danny De Andrade 2024 · A	20	41	42→45	51→50	45	201/277/305	104	269	9	11	28%	8%	67	-1.1	201/270/315	114	278	10	11	30%	7%	66	-1.1	190/254/309	120	266	11	10	31%	6%	56	-1.1
✕Adanson Cruz 2021 · A	20	45	37→40	52→50	45	211/283/292	81	298	4	9	28%	8%	65	-1.2	178/244/250	72	372	5	6	49%	7%	41	-3.0	148/219/207	58	306	4	6	49%	7%	21	-1.3
✕Miguel Hiraldo 2021 · A	20	46	38→45	50→55	43	218/268/306	88	285	5	11	24%	6%	62	-1.4	211/266/321	110	323	9	19	35%	7%	65	-1.2	208/260/324	116	320	11	22	37%	6%	61	-1.0
✕Cutter Coffey 2024 · A	20	38→45	39→45	49→50	44	185/262/271	86	271	7	13	32%	8%	53	-2.1	201/271/317	116	296	12	10	34%	8%	67	-1.1	199/268/315	116	299	12	9	35%	8%	63	-0.9
✕Jodd Carter 2016 · A	20	46→41	38→45	49→45	43	216/281/297	81	304	5	8	29%	7%	66	-1.1	214/276/311	97	313	9	7	32%	7%	68	-1.0	206/267/312	106	296	12	8	33%	7%	61	-0.9
✕Christian Cerda 2023 · A	20	40	39→45	50→40	53	189/279/278	88	244	6	9	23%	10%	61	-1.5	198/297/302	104	263	10	4	26%	12%	74	-0.5	187/288/292	105	240	12	2	26%	12%	67	-0.7
✕Johnfrank Salazar 2024 · A	20	46	41→40	46→45	46	223/277/324	101	265	9	5	20%	6%	70	-0.9	221/277/301	80	276	6	9	21%	6%	65	-1.2	212/271/271	59	261	4	10	19%	6%	53	-1.0
✕Efrain Contreras 2007 · A	20	40	38→40	51→55	46	192/263/271	79	231	6	8	19%	6%	54	-2.0	206/273/294	88	249	7	13	20%	6%	62	-1.4	204/271/288	85	250	7	15	21%	6%	58	-0.7

Erny Orellana

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps