Johnfrank Salazar
3B Palm Beach Cardinals| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | A+/ASTL | 343 | .258/.337/.334 | 2 | 0 | 59 | — | .228/.290/.289 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+/A/ROKSTL | 258 | .232/.316/.320 | 3 | 18 | 47 | — | .201/.265/.265 |
| 2026 | 22 | ASTL | 92 | .317/.391/.463 | 1 | 4 | 92 | — | .259/.315/.376 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBSTL | 219 | .219/.278/.307 | 2 | 4 | 65 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ29% MLB | 24 | MLBSTL | 33 | .225/.285/.324 | 0 | 1 | 72 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ45% MLB | 25 | MLBSTL | 78 | .227/.288/.333 | 1 | 2 | 76 | 0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 56 / POW 36
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL BOS Blue | — | 191 | 167 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 21 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 269 | 354 | 365 | 720 | 96 | 297 | 11 | 8 | 327 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 83 | 74 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 257 | 312 | 324 | 637 | 68 | 333 | 20 | 6 | 280 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | — | 122 | 101 | 33 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 327 | 438 | 446 | 884 | 119 | 355 | 7 | 14 | 397 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 137 | 123 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 228 | 307 | 374 | 681 | 146 | 240 | 16 | 10 | 307 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | — | 103 | 91 | 34 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 374 | 424 | 593 | 1.018 | 220 | 388 | 12 | 5 | 429 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | — | 114 | 102 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 206 | 264 | 255 | 519 | 49 | 235 | 17 | 5 | 233 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 229 | 200 | 57 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 285 | 373 | 375 | 748 | 90 | 329 | 13 | 10 | 341 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | — | 121 | 111 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 225 | 277 | 270 | 548 | 45 | 260 | 14 | 5 | 249 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 99 | 83 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 265 | 384 | 349 | 733 | 84 | 304 | 13 | 14 | 342 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | — | 38 | 34 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 176 | 263 | 412 | 675 | 235 | 160 | 18 | 8 | 299 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 92 | 82 | 26 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 317 | 391 | 463 | 855 | 146 | 410 | 22 | 9 | 382 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL BOS Blue | — | 191 | 172 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 26 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 180 | 254 | 238 | 492 | 58 | 196 | 14 | 6 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 83 | 75 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 240 | 287 | 307 | 594 | 67 | 325 | 30 | 5 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 122 | 108 | 26 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 241 | 322 | 324 | 646 | 83 | 260 | 11 | 8 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 137 | 128 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 195 | 248 | 312 | 561 | 117 | 225 | 22 | 7 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 103 | 93 | 26 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 280 | 323 | 419 | 743 | 140 | 299 | 17 | 3 | 332 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 114 | 103 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 204 | 255 | 252 | 507 | 49 | 229 | 21 | 4 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 229 | 208 | 50 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 41 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 240 | 307 | 308 | 615 | 67 | 293 | 18 | 7 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 121 | 113 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 204 | 244 | 239 | 483 | 35 | 237 | 19 | 3 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 99 | 87 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 241 | 333 | 322 | 655 | 80 | 289 | 18 | 10 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 38 | 35 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 86 | 158 | 200 | 358 | 114 | 113 | 26 | 5 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 92 | 85 | 22 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 259 | 315 | 376 | 692 | 118 | 377 | 29 | 5 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL BOS Blue | — | 191 | 172 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 26 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 180 | 254 | 238 | 492 | 58 | 205 | 14 | 6 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL BOS Blue | — | 191 | 167 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 21 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 269 | 354 | 365 | 720 | 96 | 297 | 11 | 8 | 327 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 205 | 183 | 42 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 38 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 230 | 299 | 290 | 588 | 60 | 288 | 19 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 205 | 175 | 52 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 297 | 388 | 394 | 782 | 97 | 347 | 13 | 11 | 349 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 240 | 220 | 51 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 48 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 232 | 284 | 359 | 643 | 127 | 265 | 20 | 5 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 240 | 214 | 62 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 19 | 34 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 290 | 356 | 467 | 823 | 178 | 307 | 14 | 8 | 360 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 343 | 311 | 71 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 65 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 228 | 290 | 289 | 579 | 61 | 279 | 19 | 6 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 343 | 302 | 78 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 48 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 258 | 337 | 334 | 672 | 76 | 298 | 14 | 9 | 305 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 258 | 235 | 47 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 51 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 200 | 266 | 264 | 529 | 64 | 245 | 20 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 258 | 228 | 53 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 37 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 232 | 316 | 320 | 637 | 88 | 263 | 14 | 9 | 292 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 92 | 85 | 22 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 259 | 315 | 376 | 692 | 118 | 368 | 29 | 5 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A RAW | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 92 | 82 | 26 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 317 | 391 | 463 | 855 | 146 | 410 | 22 | 9 | 382 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL BOS Blue | — | 191 | 172 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 26 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 180 | 254 | 238 | 492 | 58 | 196 | 14 | 6 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 205 | 185 | 42 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 38 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 227 | 299 | 286 | 585 | 59 | 286 | 19 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 240 | 222 | 51 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 48 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 230 | 284 | 356 | 640 | 126 | 257 | 20 | 5 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 343 | 313 | 71 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 65 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 227 | 290 | 288 | 577 | 61 | 272 | 19 | 6 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 258 | 235 | 47 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 51 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 200 | 266 | 264 | 529 | 64 | 239 | 20 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 92 | 85 | 22 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 259 | 315 | 376 | 692 | 118 | 377 | 29 | 5 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 343 | 313 | 71 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 65 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 227 | 290 | 288 | 577 | 61 | 272 | 19 | 6 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 258 | 235 | 47 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 51 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 200 | 266 | 264 | 529 | 64 | 239 | 20 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 92 | 85 | 22 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 259 | 315 | 376 | 692 | 118 | 377 | 29 | 5 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | STL | 0% | 219 | 201 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 56 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 219 | 278 | 307 | 584 | 88 | 289 | 26 | 6 | 265 | 65 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +5 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | STL | 29% | 114 | 105 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 224 | 284 | 323 | 607 | 100 | 290 | 25 | 6 | 274 | 72 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | STL | 45% | 173 | 158 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 43 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 226 | 287 | 334 | 621 | 108 | 291 | 25 | 6 | 280 | 76 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | STL | 54% | 234 | 213 | 49 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 58 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 228 | 289 | 340 | 629 | 112 | 291 | 25 | 7 | 283 | 78 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | STL | 58% | 271 | 248 | 57 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 67 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 228 | 290 | 341 | 631 | 113 | 290 | 25 | 7 | 284 | 78 | -7 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +6 | 0.0 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB MLE | STL | 61% | 294 | 269 | 60 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 73 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 227 | 289 | 339 | 629 | 113 | 289 | 25 | 7 | 283 | 78 | -8 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB MLE | STL | 62% | 300 | 274 | 62 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 75 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 224 | 286 | 333 | 619 | 109 | 288 | 25 | 7 | 279 | 75 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +6 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | STL | 29% | 33 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 225 | 285 | 324 | 608 | 99 | 293 | 24 | 6 | 275 | 72 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | STL | 45% | 78 | 72 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 227 | 288 | 333 | 621 | 106 | 293 | 24 | 6 | 280 | 76 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | STL | 54% | 127 | 116 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 229 | 290 | 339 | 629 | 110 | 293 | 24 | 6 | 283 | 78 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | STL | 58% | 158 | 144 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 39 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 228 | 291 | 339 | 630 | 111 | 292 | 25 | 7 | 284 | 78 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB CTX | STL | 61% | 179 | 163 | 38 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 44 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 227 | 290 | 338 | 628 | 111 | 292 | 25 | 7 | 283 | 78 | -5 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB CTX | STL | 62% | 187 | 170 | 39 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 47 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 225 | 287 | 332 | 619 | 107 | 290 | 25 | 7 | 279 | 75 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +4 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 762 | 696 | 159 | 34 | 3 | 12 | 51 | 188 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 228 | 290 | 338 | 627 | 109 | 294 | 25 | 7 | 281 | 68 | -21 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +17 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 594 | 136 | 29 | 3 | 10 | 44 | 160 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 229 | 291 | 338 | 630 | 109 | 295 | 25 | 7 | 281 | 68 | -18 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +14 | -0.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2781 | 2534 | 565 | 113 | 8 | 37 | 176 | 617 | 42 | 54 | 15 | 223 | 285 | 318 | 602 | 95 | 278 | 22 | 6 | 268 | 68 | -42 | +2 | -2 | +5 | +31 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 592 | 132 | 26 | 2 | 9 | 41 | 144 | 10 | 13 | 4 | 223 | 285 | 319 | 604 | 96 | 278 | 22 | 6 | 268 | 68 | -19 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +14 | -0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 APalm Beach Cardinals · 92 PAwOBA .372 → .304 (−69)K% 21.7% → 29.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.74% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 29.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 5.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.17% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 1.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.990 | 24.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.990 | 12.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 1.28% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .372 → .304; ISO .146 → .115; BABIP .410 → .377. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Peoria Chiefs · 121 PAwOBA .247 → .212 (−35)K% 14.0% → 18.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.05% | ÷0.951 | ×1.270 | — | — | 18.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.96% | ÷1.027 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 3.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.65% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 1.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.28% | ÷1.010 | ×0.920 | ×1.027 | ×1.012 | 20.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.32% | ÷1.083 | ×0.810 | ×1.027 | ×1.012 | 4.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.926 | ×0.850 | ×1.027 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.857 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 102, 2B 117, 3B 85, K 90, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .247 → .212; ISO .045 → .034; BABIP .260 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 APalm Beach Cardinals · 99 PAwOBA .334 → .288 (−46)K% 13.1% → 17.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.13% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 17.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.14% | ÷0.988 | ×0.690 | — | — | 9.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.02% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.29% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×1.029 | — | 23.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.71% | ÷0.896 | ×0.830 | ×1.029 | — | 5.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.029 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.43% | ÷0.973 | ×0.800 | — | — | 1.17% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 99, 2B 79, 3B 80, K 100, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.
Result: wOBA .334 → .288; ISO .084 → .076; BABIP .304 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Cardinals · 38 PAwOBA .291 → .187 (−104)K% 18.4% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.42% | ÷0.996 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.89% | ÷1.011 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 4.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.63% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 1.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 7.41% | ÷1.030 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 5.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.41% | ÷1.035 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 5.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.41% | ÷1.149 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 4.90% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 106, 2B 107, 3B 100, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .291 → .187; ISO .235 → .147; BABIP .160 → .113. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 APalm Beach Cardinals · 229 PAwOBA .331 → .274 (−57)K% 12.7% → 17.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.66% | ÷0.968 | ×1.360 | — | — | 17.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.04% | ÷0.999 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 7.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.75% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.98% | ÷1.040 | ×0.920 | ×1.044 | ×1.015 | 22.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.77% | ÷1.153 | ×0.830 | ×1.044 | ×1.015 | 6.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.946 | ×0.910 | ×1.044 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.58% | ÷1.036 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.46% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 108, 2B 131, 3B 89, K 94, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.044.
Result: wOBA .331 → .274; ISO .090 → .068; BABIP .329 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Peoria Chiefs · 114 PAwOBA .233 → .216 (−17)K% 16.7% → 21.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.006 | ×1.270 | — | — | 21.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.26% | ÷0.930 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 4.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.75% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 1.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.69% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×1.039 | ×1.027 | 21.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.039 | ×1.027 | 2.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.039 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.20% | ÷0.993 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 1.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 101, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.
Result: wOBA .233 → .216; ISO .049 → .042; BABIP .235 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ASalem Red Sox · 137 PAwOBA .299 → .247 (−52)K% 16.1% → 22.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.06% | ÷0.982 | ×1.360 | — | — | 22.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.22% | ÷1.052 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 6.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.80% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×1.026 | ×1.030 | 18.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.97% | ÷0.942 | ×0.830 | ×1.026 | ×1.030 | 2.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.026 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.95% | ÷0.999 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 4.08% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 100, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .299 → .247; ISO .146 → .118; BABIP .240 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Red Sox · 103 PAwOBA .434 → .332 (−102)K% 11.7% → 16.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.65% | ÷0.995 | ×1.440 | — | — | 16.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 2.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.91% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 2.09% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.32% | ÷0.977 | ×0.820 | ×1.004 | ×0.995 | 21.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.92% | ÷1.079 | ×0.720 | ×1.004 | ×0.995 | 9.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×1.004 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.80% | ÷0.974 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 3.03% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 95, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 99, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .434 → .332; ISO .220 → .162; BABIP .388 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).