Carlos Caro
IF Greensboro Grasshoppers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | A/ROKPIT | 183 | .292/.401/.416 | 2 | 10 | 68 | — | .221/.302/.313 |
| 2025 | 20 | A/ROKPIT | 277 | .180/.303/.223 | 0 | 17 | 9 | — | .135/.223/.163 |
| 2026 | 21 | A+/APIT | 259 | .273/.375/.432 | 8 | 15 | 72 | — | .215/.285/.334 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBPIT | 1 | .175/.248/.258 | 0 | 0 | 45 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 23 | MLBPIT | 65 | .181/.254/.273 | 1 | 2 | 52 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 20
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Pirates Gold | — | 159 | 129 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 33 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 310 | 440 | 504 | 944 | 194 | 385 | 21 | 13 | 422 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Bradenton Marauders | — | 27 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 217 | 333 | 261 | 594 | 43 | 294 | 22 | 11 | 286 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Pirates | — | 156 | 131 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 24 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 305 | 413 | 443 | 856 | 137 | 358 | 15 | 14 | 383 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Bradenton Marauders | — | 161 | 141 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 51 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 149 | 245 | 177 | 423 | 28 | 233 | 32 | 9 | 206 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | FCL Pirates | — | 116 | 92 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 23 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 228 | 383 | 293 | 676 | 65 | 304 | 20 | 17 | 323 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 216 | 181 | 48 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 54 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 265 | 379 | 387 | 765 | 122 | 350 | 25 | 14 | 347 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Bradenton Marauders | — | 43 | 39 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 308 | 357 | 641 | 998 | 333 | 409 | 35 | 5 | 417 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Pirates Gold | — | 159 | 135 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 41 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 193 | 314 | 289 | 603 | 96 | 250 | 26 | 9 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 27 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 208 | 296 | 250 | 546 | 42 | 273 | 30 | 7 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Pirates | — | 156 | 139 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 34 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 223 | 303 | 324 | 627 | 101 | 272 | 22 | 9 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 161 | 146 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 69 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 116 | 189 | 137 | 326 | 21 | 220 | 43 | 6 | 156 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Pirates | — | 116 | 100 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 33 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 160 | 270 | 200 | 470 | 40 | 226 | 28 | 10 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 216 | 193 | 41 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 71 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 212 | 290 | 306 | 595 | 93 | 305 | 33 | 8 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 43 | 40 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 225 | 262 | 475 | 737 | 250 | 363 | 47 | 2 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Pirates Gold | — | 159 | 135 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 41 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 193 | 314 | 289 | 603 | 96 | 261 | 26 | 9 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Pirates Gold | — | 159 | 129 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 33 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 310 | 440 | 504 | 944 | 194 | 385 | 21 | 13 | 422 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 183 | 163 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 42 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 215 | 297 | 307 | 603 | 92 | 275 | 23 | 9 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 183 | 154 | 45 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 30 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 292 | 401 | 416 | 817 | 123 | 350 | 16 | 14 | 369 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 277 | 245 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 102 | 7 | 17 | 5 | 135 | 226 | 163 | 390 | 29 | 231 | 37 | 8 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 277 | 233 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 34 | 74 | 7 | 17 | 5 | 180 | 303 | 223 | 526 | 43 | 264 | 27 | 12 | 255 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 259 | 232 | 50 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 91 | 4 | 15 | 3 | 216 | 289 | 328 | 617 | 112 | 321 | 35 | 8 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 259 | 220 | 60 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 32 | 69 | 4 | 15 | 3 | 273 | 375 | 432 | 807 | 159 | 359 | 27 | 12 | 359 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Pirates Gold | — | 159 | 134 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 41 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 194 | 314 | 291 | 606 | 97 | 250 | 26 | 9 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 183 | 162 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 42 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 216 | 297 | 309 | 605 | 93 | 272 | 23 | 9 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 277 | 246 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 102 | 7 | 17 | 5 | 134 | 226 | 163 | 389 | 28 | 223 | 37 | 8 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 259 | 233 | 50 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 91 | 4 | 15 | 3 | 215 | 289 | 326 | 615 | 112 | 315 | 35 | 8 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 183 | 162 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 42 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 216 | 297 | 309 | 605 | 93 | 272 | 23 | 9 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 277 | 246 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 102 | 7 | 17 | 5 | 134 | 226 | 163 | 389 | 28 | 223 | 37 | 8 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 259 | 233 | 50 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 91 | 4 | 15 | 3 | 215 | 289 | 326 | 615 | 112 | 315 | 35 | 8 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | PIT | 0% | 369 | 334 | 58 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 115 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 175 | 249 | 261 | 510 | 86 | 246 | 31 | 7 | 235 | 45 | -24 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +8 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB CTX | PIT | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 175 | 248 | 258 | 505 | 83 | 246 | 0 | 0 | 234 | 45 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | PIT | 35% | 189 | 170 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 58 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 182 | 255 | 277 | 533 | 96 | 249 | 31 | 7 | 244 | 52 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +4 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | PIT | 35% | 65 | 59 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 181 | 254 | 273 | 527 | 92 | 249 | 31 | 8 | 242 | 52 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 65 | 59 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 186 | 262 | 271 | 533 | 85 | 263 | 31 | 8 | 242 | 50 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 590 | 110 | 20 | 0 | 10 | 50 | 200 | 10 | 20 | 0 | 186 | 262 | 271 | 533 | 85 | 263 | 31 | 8 | 242 | 50 | -37 | +4 | +0 | +0 | +14 | -2.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1220 | 1084 | 198 | 28 | 7 | 15 | 97 | 382 | 29 | 62 | 19 | 183 | 268 | 263 | 531 | 80 | 264 | 31 | 8 | 242 | 50 | -21 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +7 | -1.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 578 | 106 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 52 | 204 | 15 | 33 | 10 | 183 | 269 | 265 | 533 | 81 | 266 | 31 | 8 | 242 | 50 | -40 | +2 | +0 | +0 | +14 | -2.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 216 PAwOBA .341 → .268 (−73)K% 25.0% → 32.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 32.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 8.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.39% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 1.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.13% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×1.007 | ×1.012 | 25.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×1.007 | ×1.012 | 3.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.007 | ×1.012 | 0.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 3.51% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .341 → .268; ISO .122 → .103; BABIP .350 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ABradenton Marauders · 43 PAwOBA .415 → .306 (−108)K% 34.9% → 47.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.88% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 47.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | — | 3.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.33% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | — | 26.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | — | 7.58% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | — | 10.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .415 → .306; ISO .333 → .237; BABIP .409 → .363. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ABradenton Marauders · 161 PAwOBA .202 → .156 (−45)K% 31.7% → 43.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.68% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 43.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.70% | ÷1.052 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 5.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.48% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.993 | ×0.920 | ×1.020 | ×1.015 | 19.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.22% | ÷1.084 | ×0.830 | ×1.020 | ×1.015 | 1.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.11% | ÷0.952 | ×0.910 | ×1.020 | ×1.015 | 1.10% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.932 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 99, 2B 117, 3B 90, K 100, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .202 → .156; ISO .028 → .022; BABIP .233 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Pirates · 116 PAwOBA .316 → .216 (−100)K% 19.8% → 28.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.83% | ÷1.006 | ×1.440 | — | — | 28.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.24% | ÷0.998 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 10.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.59% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 1.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.74% | ÷1.022 | ×0.820 | ×0.995 | ×0.985 | 17.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷1.119 | ×0.720 | ×0.995 | ×0.985 | 5.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.950 | ×0.720 | ×0.995 | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 104, 2B 124, 3B 90, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .316 → .216; ISO .065 → .041; BABIP .304 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Pirates · 156 PAwOBA .377 → .276 (−101)K% 15.4% → 21.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.38% | ÷1.032 | ×1.440 | — | — | 21.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.10% | ÷0.964 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 9.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.28% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.17% | ÷1.003 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 20.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.48% | ÷0.917 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 5.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.87% | ÷0.978 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 1.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.87% | ÷0.921 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 1.57% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 101, 2B 83, 3B 96, K 106, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .377 → .276; ISO .137 → .105; BABIP .358 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ABradenton Marauders · 27 PAwOBA .280 → .225 (−55)K% 22.2% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷0.975 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.010 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 7.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.70% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 2.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.53% | ÷0.977 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.030 | 22.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.124 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.030 | 4.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.052 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.046 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 95, 2B 125, 3B 110, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .280 → .225; ISO .043 → .031; BABIP .294 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Pirates Gold · 159 PAwOBA .412 → .266 (−146)K% 20.8% → 26.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.75% | ÷0.974 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.58% | ÷1.009 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 8.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.29% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 4.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.08% | ÷0.980 | ×0.680 | ×1.014 | ×0.995 | 18.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.040 | ×0.600 | ×1.014 | ×0.995 | 4.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.04% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | ×1.014 | ×0.995 | 0.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.21% | ÷0.969 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 2.51% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 96, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .412 → .266; ISO .194 → .101; BABIP .385 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).