Omar Hernandez
C Northwest Arkansas Naturals| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A+KC | 277 | .227/.283/.291 | 2 | 14 | 29 | — | .194/.235/.244 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA/A+2 orgs | 282 | .225/.259/.275 | 0 | 10 | 20 | — | .190/.223/.228 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 327 | .273/.320/.370 | 6 | 20 | 67 | — | .249/.292/.329 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 25 | MLBKC | 4 | .207/.245/.273 | 0 | 0 | 46 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 26 | MLBKC | 77 | .210/.249/.284 | 1 | 3 | 51 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ42% MLB | 27 | MLBKC | 116 | .211/.252/.287 | 1 | 4 | 53 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | AZL Royals | — | 147 | 131 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 290 | 350 | 359 | 708 | 69 | 336 | 14 | 5 | 315 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A | Columbia Fireflies | — | 264 | 241 | 42 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 68 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 174 | 235 | 274 | 508 | 100 | 227 | 26 | 6 | 229 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Columbia Fireflies | — | 359 | 320 | 74 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 78 | 2 | 18 | 3 | 231 | 289 | 294 | 583 | 62 | 302 | 22 | 7 | 262 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 30 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 130 | 333 | 174 | 507 | 43 | 214 | 30 | 20 | 267 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Columbia Fireflies | — | 333 | 283 | 63 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 35 | 52 | 4 | 26 | 10 | 223 | 313 | 311 | 624 | 88 | 251 | 16 | 11 | 282 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 277 | 251 | 57 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 57 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 227 | 283 | 291 | 574 | 64 | 286 | 21 | 7 | 259 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 155 | 140 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 243 | 275 | 279 | 554 | 36 | 293 | 17 | 3 | 243 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 127 | 118 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 203 | 240 | 271 | 511 | 68 | 264 | 21 | 4 | 228 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 44 | 42 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 238 | 256 | 310 | 565 | 71 | 265 | 16 | 2 | 248 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 283 | 247 | 69 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 62 | 5 | 20 | 5 | 279 | 330 | 381 | 710 | 101 | 352 | 22 | 6 | 310 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | AZL Royals | — | 147 | 134 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 224 | 273 | 276 | 549 | 52 | 261 | 20 | 3 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 264 | 246 | 35 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 95 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 142 | 188 | 220 | 408 | 77 | 207 | 36 | 5 | 174 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 359 | 334 | 61 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 113 | 2 | 18 | 3 | 183 | 227 | 234 | 460 | 51 | 266 | 31 | 5 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 30 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 120 | 267 | 160 | 427 | 40 | 185 | 37 | 13 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 333 | 297 | 57 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 74 | 4 | 26 | 10 | 192 | 264 | 259 | 523 | 67 | 229 | 22 | 8 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 277 | 258 | 50 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 71 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 194 | 235 | 244 | 479 | 50 | 255 | 26 | 5 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 155 | 143 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 32 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 217 | 248 | 245 | 493 | 28 | 260 | 21 | 2 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 127 | 120 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 34 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 158 | 192 | 208 | 400 | 50 | 222 | 27 | 3 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 44 | 42 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 238 | 256 | 310 | 565 | 71 | 252 | 18 | 2 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 283 | 259 | 65 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 76 | 5 | 20 | 5 | 251 | 297 | 332 | 629 | 81 | 326 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | AZL Royals | — | 147 | 134 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 224 | 273 | 276 | 549 | 52 | 280 | 20 | 3 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK RAW | AZL Royals | — | 147 | 131 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 290 | 350 | 359 | 708 | 69 | 336 | 14 | 5 | 315 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 264 | 246 | 35 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 95 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 142 | 188 | 220 | 408 | 77 | 219 | 36 | 5 | 174 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A RAW | Columbia Fireflies | — | 264 | 241 | 42 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 68 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 174 | 235 | 274 | 508 | 100 | 227 | 26 | 6 | 229 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 359 | 334 | 61 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 113 | 2 | 18 | 3 | 183 | 227 | 234 | 460 | 51 | 271 | 31 | 5 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A RAW | Columbia Fireflies | — | 359 | 320 | 74 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 78 | 2 | 18 | 3 | 231 | 289 | 294 | 583 | 62 | 302 | 22 | 7 | 262 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 363 | 322 | 60 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 85 | 5 | 26 | 11 | 186 | 264 | 252 | 516 | 65 | 235 | 23 | 8 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 363 | 306 | 66 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 41 | 61 | 5 | 26 | 11 | 216 | 315 | 301 | 615 | 85 | 249 | 17 | 11 | 281 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 277 | 258 | 50 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 71 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 194 | 235 | 244 | 479 | 50 | 259 | 26 | 5 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ RAW | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 277 | 251 | 57 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 57 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 227 | 283 | 291 | 574 | 64 | 286 | 21 | 7 | 259 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 282 | 264 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 66 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 193 | 223 | 235 | 457 | 42 | 254 | 23 | 2 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 282 | 258 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 54 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 225 | 259 | 275 | 534 | 50 | 280 | 19 | 3 | 236 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 327 | 301 | 75 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 84 | 5 | 20 | 6 | 249 | 292 | 329 | 620 | 80 | 327 | 26 | 4 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 327 | 289 | 79 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 69 | 5 | 20 | 6 | 273 | 320 | 370 | 690 | 97 | 338 | 21 | 6 | 301 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | AZL Royals | — | 147 | 137 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 219 | 273 | 270 | 543 | 51 | 261 | 20 | 3 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 264 | 248 | 35 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 95 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 141 | 188 | 218 | 406 | 77 | 207 | 36 | 5 | 174 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 359 | 337 | 61 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 113 | 2 | 18 | 3 | 181 | 227 | 231 | 458 | 50 | 266 | 31 | 5 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 363 | 326 | 60 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 85 | 5 | 26 | 11 | 184 | 264 | 248 | 513 | 64 | 225 | 23 | 8 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 277 | 261 | 50 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 71 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 192 | 235 | 241 | 477 | 50 | 255 | 26 | 5 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 282 | 270 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 66 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 189 | 223 | 230 | 452 | 41 | 243 | 23 | 2 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 327 | 306 | 75 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 84 | 5 | 20 | 6 | 245 | 292 | 324 | 615 | 78 | 316 | 26 | 4 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 277 | 261 | 50 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 71 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 192 | 235 | 241 | 477 | 50 | 255 | 26 | 5 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 282 | 270 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 66 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 189 | 223 | 230 | 452 | 41 | 243 | 23 | 2 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 327 | 306 | 75 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 84 | 5 | 20 | 6 | 245 | 292 | 324 | 615 | 78 | 316 | 26 | 4 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | KC | 2% | 377 | 356 | 74 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 96 | 5 | 13 | 4 | 209 | 246 | 277 | 523 | 68 | 273 | 25 | 3 | 236 | 46 | -24 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +8 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | KC | 2% | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 245 | 273 | 517 | 65 | 271 | 25 | 0 | 234 | 46 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | KC | 31% | 248 | 234 | 50 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 63 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 212 | 251 | 289 | 541 | 77 | 274 | 25 | 4 | 244 | 51 | -14 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB MLE | KC | 42% | 276 | 260 | 56 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 70 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 213 | 254 | 292 | 546 | 80 | 274 | 25 | 4 | 246 | 53 | -15 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +6 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | KC | 31% | 77 | 73 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 210 | 249 | 284 | 534 | 74 | 272 | 26 | 4 | 241 | 51 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB CTX | KC | 42% | 116 | 109 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 211 | 252 | 287 | 539 | 77 | 272 | 25 | 4 | 243 | 53 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 193 | 182 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 49 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 203 | 245 | 264 | 509 | 60 | 265 | 25 | 4 | 242 | 38 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +4 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 613 | 125 | 17 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 165 | 7 | 24 | 7 | 204 | 246 | 266 | 512 | 62 | 266 | 25 | 4 | 242 | 38 | -37 | +2 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -0.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2753 | 2551 | 510 | 77 | 10 | 23 | 122 | 730 | 32 | 117 | 35 | 200 | 245 | 265 | 510 | 65 | 268 | 27 | 4 | 224 | 38 | -43 | +2 | +0 | +13 | +16 | -1.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 602 | 119 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 172 | 8 | 28 | 8 | 198 | 244 | 259 | 503 | 61 | 266 | 26 | 4 | 224 | 38 | -38 | +1 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 283 PAwOBA .304 → .274 (−29)K% 21.9% → 26.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.91% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.01% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 4.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.77% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 1.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.025 | ×0.998 | 27.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.025 | ×0.998 | 3.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×1.025 | ×0.998 | 0.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.16% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .304 → .274; ISO .101 → .087; BABIP .352 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 44 PAwOBA .241 → .216 (−25)K% 15.9% → 19.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.91% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 19.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 1.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.033 | 24.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 2.07% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .241 → .216; ISO .071 → .051; BABIP .265 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 155 PAwOBA .241 → .216 (−25)K% 17.4% → 20.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.42% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.58% | ÷1.059 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 1.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.94% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 1.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.66% | ÷1.034 | ×0.920 | ×0.989 | ×1.012 | 22.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.42% | ÷0.984 | ×0.840 | ×0.989 | ×1.012 | 3.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.989 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.077 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 107, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 104, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .241 → .216; ISO .036 → .032; BABIP .293 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 127 PAwOBA .222 → .177 (−45)K% 21.3% → 26.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.26% | ÷1.007 | ×1.270 | — | — | 26.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.94% | ÷0.981 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 2.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.79% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.68% | ÷1.027 | ×0.920 | ×0.989 | ×0.988 | 16.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.59% | ÷1.055 | ×0.810 | ×0.989 | ×0.988 | 4.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.10% | ÷1.012 | ×0.850 | ×0.989 | ×0.988 | 0.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.983 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 105, 2B 111, 3B 102, K 101, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .222 → .177; ISO .068 → .051; BABIP .264 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 277 PAwOBA .251 → .211 (−39)K% 20.6% → 25.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.58% | ÷1.024 | ×1.270 | — | — | 25.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.50% | ÷0.967 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 4.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.36% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.20% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 21.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.15% | ÷1.113 | ×0.810 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 3.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.03% | ÷0.959 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.86% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 98, 2B 123, 3B 130, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .251 → .211; ISO .064 → .048; BABIP .286 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AColumbia Fireflies · 333 PAwOBA .280 → .233 (−47)K% 15.6% → 22.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.62% | ÷0.952 | ×1.360 | — | — | 22.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.51% | ÷0.976 | ×0.690 | — | — | 7.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.21% | ÷0.970 | ×0.920 | ×0.989 | — | 19.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.46% | ÷1.023 | ×0.830 | ×0.989 | — | 2.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.43% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.989 | — | 0.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.16% | ÷1.089 | ×0.800 | — | — | 1.59% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 94, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 90, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .280 → .233; ISO .088 → .067; BABIP .251 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 30 PAwOBA .262 → .208 (−54)K% 30.0% → 36.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.00% | ÷1.014 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.984 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 14.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.33% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 3.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.055 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 12.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.131 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 5.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.062 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.872 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 111, 2B 126, 3B 112, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .262 → .208; ISO .043 → .033; BABIP .214 → .185. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AColumbia Fireflies · 359 PAwOBA .256 → .202 (−54)K% 21.7% → 31.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.73% | ÷0.937 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.24% | ÷1.069 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 4.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.56% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.55% | ÷1.054 | ×0.920 | ×1.000 | ×1.015 | 20.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.20% | ÷0.985 | ×0.830 | ×1.000 | ×1.015 | 5.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.41% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.000 | ×1.015 | 0.42% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.41% | ÷1.140 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.29% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 111, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 87, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.
Result: wOBA .256 → .202; ISO .062 → .050; BABIP .302 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).