Jose Vinicio
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 23 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 247 | .259/.287/.329 | 2 | 7 | 64 | — | .269/.291/.338 |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA/AACWS | 345 | .231/.256/.329 | 4 | 9 | 34 | — | .213/.232/.308 |
| 2018 | 25 | AA/A+2 orgs | 305 | .231/.262/.325 | 3 | 11 | 32 | — | .206/.225/.278 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 17 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | — | 170 | 158 | 40 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 253 | 293 | 373 | 667 | 120 | 293 | 15 | 4 | 291 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | — | 194 | 179 | 52 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 33 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 291 | 339 | 419 | 758 | 128 | 345 | 17 | 4 | 335 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | A | Greenville Drive | — | 278 | 256 | 71 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 56 | 4 | 24 | 11 | 277 | 322 | 371 | 693 | 94 | 342 | 20 | 5 | 307 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A | Greenville Drive | — | 418 | 391 | 75 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 108 | 5 | 21 | 9 | 192 | 225 | 256 | 481 | 64 | 261 | 26 | 3 | 213 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 138 | 129 | 34 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 264 | 296 | 318 | 614 | 54 | 333 | 21 | 3 | 273 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | — | 23 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 429 | 619 | 643 | 1.262 | 214 | 462 | 9 | 30 | 496 | 173 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 19 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 111 | 158 | 167 | 325 | 56 | 154 | 26 | 5 | 152 | -11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 212 | 201 | 59 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 294 | 321 | 378 | 699 | 85 | 333 | 11 | 3 | 308 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 178 | 167 | 45 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 34 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 269 | 295 | 347 | 642 | 78 | 333 | 19 | 3 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 69 | 61 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 230 | 266 | 279 | 544 | 49 | 250 | 13 | 4 | 231 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 135 | 130 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 246 | 246 | 323 | 569 | 77 | 326 | 26 | 0 | 243 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 210 | 195 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 50 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 221 | 262 | 333 | 595 | 113 | 280 | 24 | 5 | 262 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA | Jackson Generals | — | 286 | 268 | 62 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 71 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 231 | 264 | 332 | 596 | 101 | 303 | 25 | 3 | 261 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | A+ | Visalia Rawhide | — | 19 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 222 | 222 | 222 | 444 | 250 | 16 | 0 | 191 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 170 | 161 | 33 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 37 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 205 | 234 | 292 | 525 | 87 | 251 | 22 | 2 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 194 | 182 | 40 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 48 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 220 | 260 | 313 | 574 | 93 | 278 | 25 | 2 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 278 | 260 | 64 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 75 | 4 | 24 | 11 | 246 | 282 | 312 | 594 | 65 | 327 | 27 | 3 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 418 | 395 | 64 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 145 | 5 | 21 | 9 | 162 | 189 | 210 | 399 | 48 | 242 | 35 | 2 | 172 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 138 | 131 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 229 | 252 | 275 | 527 | 46 | 316 | 30 | 1 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 23 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 353 | 476 | 529 | 1.006 | 176 | 364 | 13 | 17 | 424 | 173 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 212 | 203 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 266 | 287 | 335 | 622 | 69 | 316 | 17 | 2 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 178 | 168 | 47 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 42 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 280 | 301 | 357 | 658 | 77 | 357 | 24 | 2 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 69 | 62 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 242 | 266 | 290 | 556 | 48 | 247 | 16 | 3 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 135 | 130 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 238 | 238 | 315 | 554 | 77 | 326 | 33 | 0 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 210 | 198 | 39 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 62 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 197 | 228 | 303 | 531 | 106 | 252 | 30 | 4 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 286 | 273 | 56 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 89 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 205 | 225 | 282 | 507 | 77 | 283 | 31 | 2 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | A+ MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 19 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 222 | 222 | 222 | 444 | 228 | 21 | 0 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2010 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 170 | 161 | 33 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 37 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 205 | 234 | 292 | 525 | 87 | 256 | 22 | 2 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 17 | ROK RAW | GCL Red Sox | — | 170 | 158 | 40 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 253 | 293 | 373 | 667 | 120 | 293 | 15 | 4 | 291 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 194 | 182 | 40 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 48 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 220 | 260 | 313 | 574 | 93 | 286 | 25 | 2 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Red Sox | — | 194 | 179 | 52 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 33 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 291 | 339 | 419 | 758 | 128 | 345 | 17 | 4 | 335 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 278 | 260 | 64 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 75 | 4 | 24 | 11 | 246 | 282 | 312 | 594 | 65 | 335 | 27 | 3 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | A RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 278 | 256 | 71 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 56 | 4 | 24 | 11 | 277 | 322 | 371 | 693 | 94 | 342 | 20 | 5 | 307 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 418 | 395 | 64 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 145 | 5 | 21 | 9 | 162 | 189 | 210 | 399 | 48 | 252 | 35 | 2 | 172 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 418 | 391 | 75 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 108 | 5 | 21 | 9 | 192 | 225 | 256 | 481 | 64 | 261 | 26 | 3 | 213 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 180 | 165 | 41 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 49 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 248 | 291 | 309 | 601 | 61 | 345 | 27 | 4 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 180 | 161 | 42 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 36 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 261 | 320 | 329 | 649 | 68 | 328 | 20 | 7 | 288 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 212 | 203 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 266 | 287 | 335 | 622 | 69 | 321 | 17 | 2 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ RAW | Salem Red Sox | — | 212 | 201 | 59 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 294 | 321 | 378 | 699 | 85 | 333 | 11 | 3 | 308 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 247 | 230 | 62 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 53 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 270 | 291 | 339 | 630 | 70 | 341 | 21 | 2 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 247 | 228 | 59 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 43 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 259 | 287 | 329 | 616 | 70 | 310 | 17 | 3 | 266 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 345 | 328 | 68 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 107 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 207 | 226 | 290 | 516 | 82 | 295 | 31 | 2 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 345 | 325 | 75 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 85 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 231 | 256 | 329 | 585 | 98 | 298 | 25 | 3 | 254 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 305 | 291 | 59 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 93 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 203 | 221 | 275 | 496 | 72 | 288 | 30 | 2 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 305 | 286 | 66 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 74 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 231 | 262 | 325 | 587 | 94 | 299 | 24 | 3 | 257 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 170 | 162 | 33 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 37 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 204 | 234 | 290 | 524 | 86 | 251 | 22 | 2 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 194 | 182 | 40 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 48 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 220 | 260 | 313 | 574 | 93 | 278 | 25 | 2 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 278 | 263 | 64 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 75 | 4 | 24 | 11 | 243 | 282 | 308 | 590 | 65 | 327 | 27 | 3 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 418 | 402 | 64 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 145 | 5 | 21 | 9 | 159 | 189 | 206 | 395 | 47 | 242 | 35 | 2 | 172 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 180 | 168 | 41 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 49 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 244 | 291 | 304 | 595 | 60 | 323 | 27 | 4 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 212 | 204 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 265 | 287 | 333 | 620 | 69 | 316 | 17 | 2 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 247 | 238 | 62 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 53 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 261 | 291 | 328 | 619 | 67 | 326 | 21 | 2 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 345 | 334 | 68 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 107 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 204 | 226 | 284 | 511 | 81 | 281 | 31 | 2 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 305 | 295 | 59 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 93 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 200 | 221 | 271 | 493 | 71 | 280 | 30 | 2 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2349 | 2215 | 485 | 68 | 24 | 13 | 56 | 642 | 24 | 116 | 58 | 219 | 246 | 289 | 535 | 70 | 300 | 27 | 2 | 230 | 42 | -163 | +0 | +0 | +25 | +51 | -8.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 613 | 135 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 178 | 7 | 32 | 16 | 220 | 247 | 294 | 541 | 73 | 301 | 27 | 2 | 230 | 42 | -45 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -2.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2018 AAJackson Generals · 286 PAwOBA .252 → .219 (−33)K% 24.8% → 31.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.83% | ÷0.972 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.80% | ÷1.003 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 1.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.70% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.34% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×1.022 | ×0.998 | 21.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.09% | ÷1.022 | ×0.910 | ×1.022 | ×0.998 | 5.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.52% | ÷1.145 | ×0.880 | ×1.022 | ×0.998 | 1.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.52% | ÷0.954 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.27% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 96, 2B 104, 3B 129, K 94, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .252 → .219; ISO .101 → .083; BABIP .303 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Visalia Rawhide · 19 PAwOBA .196 → .179 (−16)K% 15.8% → 20.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.79% | ÷1.029 | ×1.340 | — | — | 20.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.008 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷0.978 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.978 | 24.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.051 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 96, 2B 110, 3B 80, K 106, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .196 → .179; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .250 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AABirmingham Barons · 210 PAwOBA .256 → .216 (−40)K% 23.8% → 29.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.81% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.24% | ÷1.001 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 3.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.009 | ×0.920 | ×0.989 | ×1.012 | 18.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.21% | ÷1.021 | ×0.910 | ×0.989 | ×1.012 | 5.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.38% | ÷1.086 | ×0.880 | ×0.989 | ×1.012 | 1.12% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.07% | ÷0.894 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.87% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 117, K 96, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .256 → .216; ISO .113 → .096; BABIP .280 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAACharlotte Knights · 135 PAwOBA .237 → .223 (−14)K% 25.9% → 32.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.93% | ÷0.952 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.008 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.32% | ÷1.012 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 26.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.958 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 5.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.05% | ÷1.077 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 1.04% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.05% | ÷1.150 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.048 | 0.81% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 102, 2B 92, 3B 115, K 90, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .237 → .223; ISO .077 → .067; BABIP .326 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 178 PAwOBA .272 → .280 (+8)K% 19.1% → 23.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.10% | ÷0.979 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.81% | ÷1.007 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 2.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.56% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.82% | ÷0.957 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 29.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.01% | ÷0.923 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 2.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.26% | ÷0.912 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 2.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.75% | ÷0.994 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 0.67% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 91, 2B 85, 3B 82, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .272 → .280; ISO .078 → .081; BABIP .333 → .357. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 69 PAwOBA .228 → .219 (−9)K% 13.0% → 16.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.04% | ÷0.985 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.35% | ÷1.050 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 2.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.040 | ×0.970 | ×1.038 | ×1.027 | 24.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.997 | ×0.860 | ×1.038 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.031 | ×0.950 | ×1.038 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.92% | ÷1.371 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 1.12% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 174, 1B 108, 2B 99, 3B 106, K 97, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.
Result: wOBA .228 → .219; ISO .049 → .031; BABIP .250 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Salem Red Sox · 212 PAwOBA .300 → .266 (−34)K% 11.3% → 16.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.32% | ÷0.960 | ×1.420 | — | — | 16.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.83% | ÷1.036 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.012 | 1.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.94% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 0.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.42% | ÷1.026 | ×0.940 | ×1.048 | ×1.012 | 24.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.21% | ÷0.970 | ×0.830 | ×1.048 | ×1.012 | 5.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.69% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×1.048 | ×1.012 | 1.25% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.841 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 105, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 92, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.
Result: wOBA .300 → .266; ISO .085 → .069; BABIP .333 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Salem Red Sox · 138 PAwOBA .269 → .230 (−39)K% 21.0% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.01% | ÷0.998 | ×1.420 | — | — | 29.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.90% | ÷1.031 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.027 | 1.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.45% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.027 | 1.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.00% | ÷1.015 | ×0.940 | ×1.015 | ×1.027 | 27.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.997 | ×0.830 | ×1.015 | ×1.027 | 4.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.800 | ×1.015 | ×1.027 | 0.93% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.025 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 103, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .269 → .230; ISO .054 → .044; BABIP .333 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).