Mariel Bautista
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 20 | ROKBillings Must… | 233 | .330/.391/.541 | 8 | 16 | 80 | — | .242/.291/.391 |
| 2019 | 21 | A/ROK2 orgs | 454 | .240/.312/.341 | 8 | 23 | 36 | — | .185/.243/.262 |
| 2021 | 23 | AA/A+CIN | 143 | .250/.293/.447 | 5 | 4 | 48 | — | .194/.229/.352 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rojos | — | 199 | 170 | 44 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 43 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 259 | 354 | 388 | 742 | 129 | 331 | 22 | 10 | 330 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rojos | — | 272 | 237 | 79 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 36 | 10 | 13 | 4 | 333 | 413 | 473 | 885 | 139 | 378 | 13 | 8 | 392 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | AZL Reds | — | 157 | 147 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 320 | 355 | 395 | 749 | 75 | 379 | 15 | 3 | 333 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | Billings Mustangs | — | 233 | 209 | 69 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 29 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 330 | 391 | 541 | 932 | 211 | 349 | 12 | 7 | 404 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Dayton Dragons | — | 433 | 386 | 90 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 88 | 13 | 19 | 11 | 233 | 307 | 332 | 638 | 98 | 278 | 20 | 6 | 289 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | AZL Reds | — | 21 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 368 | 429 | 526 | 955 | 158 | 438 | 14 | 10 | 422 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 19 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 211 | 211 | 263 | 474 | 53 | 235 | 11 | 0 | 210 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 124 | 113 | 29 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 36 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 257 | 306 | 478 | 784 | 221 | 320 | 29 | 5 | 334 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rojos | — | 199 | 177 | 29 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 53 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 164 | 241 | 237 | 478 | 73 | 210 | 27 | 7 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rojos | — | 272 | 245 | 51 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 44 | 10 | 13 | 4 | 208 | 279 | 278 | 556 | 69 | 238 | 16 | 5 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Reds | — | 157 | 149 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 35 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 242 | 271 | 295 | 566 | 54 | 305 | 22 | 2 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 233 | 215 | 52 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 42 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 242 | 291 | 391 | 682 | 149 | 260 | 18 | 4 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 433 | 396 | 72 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 126 | 13 | 19 | 11 | 182 | 241 | 258 | 499 | 76 | 233 | 29 | 4 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Reds | — | 21 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 250 | 286 | 350 | 636 | 100 | 331 | 19 | 5 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 19 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 211 | 211 | 263 | 474 | 53 | 210 | 11 | 0 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 124 | 115 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 49 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 191 | 231 | 365 | 597 | 174 | 264 | 40 | 3 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rojos | — | 199 | 177 | 29 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 53 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 164 | 241 | 237 | 478 | 73 | 224 | 27 | 7 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Rojos | — | 199 | 170 | 44 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 43 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 259 | 354 | 388 | 742 | 129 | 331 | 22 | 10 | 330 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rojos | — | 272 | 245 | 51 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 44 | 10 | 13 | 4 | 208 | 279 | 278 | 556 | 69 | 246 | 16 | 5 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Rojos | — | 272 | 237 | 79 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 36 | 10 | 13 | 4 | 333 | 413 | 473 | 885 | 139 | 378 | 13 | 8 | 392 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Reds | — | 157 | 149 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 35 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 242 | 271 | 295 | 566 | 54 | 313 | 22 | 2 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK RAW | AZL Reds | — | 157 | 147 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 320 | 355 | 395 | 749 | 75 | 379 | 15 | 3 | 333 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 233 | 215 | 52 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 42 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 242 | 291 | 391 | 682 | 149 | 271 | 18 | 4 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK RAW | Billings Mustangs | — | 233 | 209 | 69 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 29 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 330 | 391 | 541 | 932 | 211 | 349 | 12 | 7 | 404 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 454 | 416 | 77 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 130 | 13 | 23 | 12 | 185 | 243 | 262 | 505 | 77 | 249 | 29 | 4 | 222 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 454 | 405 | 97 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 30 | 91 | 13 | 23 | 12 | 240 | 312 | 341 | 653 | 101 | 286 | 20 | 7 | 295 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 143 | 134 | 26 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 52 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 194 | 229 | 351 | 579 | 157 | 272 | 36 | 3 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 143 | 132 | 33 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 38 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 250 | 293 | 447 | 740 | 197 | 304 | 27 | 4 | 318 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rojos | — | 199 | 179 | 29 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 53 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 162 | 241 | 235 | 476 | 73 | 210 | 27 | 7 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rojos | — | 272 | 246 | 51 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 44 | 10 | 13 | 4 | 207 | 279 | 276 | 555 | 69 | 238 | 16 | 5 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Reds | — | 157 | 150 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 35 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 240 | 271 | 293 | 564 | 53 | 305 | 22 | 2 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 233 | 216 | 52 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 42 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 241 | 291 | 389 | 680 | 148 | 260 | 18 | 4 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 454 | 419 | 77 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 130 | 13 | 23 | 12 | 184 | 243 | 260 | 503 | 76 | 238 | 29 | 4 | 222 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 143 | 136 | 26 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 52 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 191 | 229 | 346 | 574 | 154 | 257 | 36 | 3 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1458 | 1336 | 271 | 45 | 12 | 18 | 63 | 356 | 38 | 78 | 24 | 203 | 259 | 295 | 554 | 92 | 258 | 24 | 4 | 240 | 49 | -89 | +6 | +0 | +5 | +32 | -4.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 596 | 120 | 20 | 5 | 8 | 28 | 159 | 17 | 35 | 11 | 201 | 258 | 292 | 550 | 91 | 256 | 24 | 4 | 240 | 49 | -40 | +3 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2021 A+Dayton Dragons · 124 PAwOBA .333 → .250 (−83)K% 29.0% → 39.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.03% | ÷0.986 | ×1.350 | — | — | 39.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.84% | ÷1.008 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 3.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.61% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 1.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.78% | ÷1.061 | ×0.910 | ×0.994 | ×0.988 | 17.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.79% | ÷1.011 | ×0.830 | ×0.994 | ×0.988 | 6.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.60% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×0.994 | ×0.988 | 2.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.49% | ÷0.960 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 5.55% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 112, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 97, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .333 → .250; ISO .221 → .168; BABIP .320 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 19 PAwOBA .204 → .176 (−29)K% 10.5% → 12.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.53% | ÷1.040 | ×1.220 | — | — | 12.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.936 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷1.011 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.012 | 16.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.183 | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 4.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.912 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.950 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 102, 2B 137, 3B 82, K 108, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .204 → .176; ISO .053 → .038; BABIP .235 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ADayton Dragons · 433 PAwOBA .284 → .219 (−65)K% 20.3% → 29.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.32% | ÷0.953 | ×1.360 | — | — | 29.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.24% | ÷1.044 | ×0.690 | — | — | 4.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 2.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.49% | ÷1.033 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | — | 19.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.36% | ÷0.950 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | — | 2.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.67% | ÷1.024 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | — | 0.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.68% | ÷0.950 | ×0.800 | — | — | 2.26% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 107, 2B 90, 3B 105, K 91, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .284 → .219; ISO .098 → .077; BABIP .278 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ROKAZL Reds · 21 PAwOBA .411 → .290 (−121)K% 14.3% → 20.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 20.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 5.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 19.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 18.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 13.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .411 → .290; ISO .158 → .107; BABIP .438 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ROKBillings Mustangs · 233 PAwOBA .398 → .287 (−111)K% 12.4% → 17.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.45% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 17.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.87% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×0.985 | 4.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.15% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 1.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.967 | ×0.985 | 19.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.967 | ×0.985 | 4.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.967 | ×0.985 | 1.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.44% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.985 | 3.28% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.
Result: wOBA .398 → .287; ISO .211 → .149; BABIP .349 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ROKAZL Reds · 157 PAwOBA .327 → .245 (−82)K% 15.3% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.29% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 22.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 1.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.91% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 1.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.013 | ×0.995 | 24.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.013 | ×0.995 | 5.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.013 | ×0.995 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .327 → .245; ISO .075 → .052; BABIP .379 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 DSLDSL Rojos · 272 PAwOBA .384 → .249 (−135)K% 13.2% → 16.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.24% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 5.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.68% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 2.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.967 | ×0.995 | 18.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.967 | ×0.995 | 4.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.99% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.967 | ×0.995 | 1.15% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.70% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.
Result: wOBA .384 → .249; ISO .139 → .079; BABIP .378 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 DSLDSL Rojos · 199 PAwOBA .323 → .210 (−113)K% 21.6% → 26.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.61% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 6.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.51% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.968 | ×1.008 | 15.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.87% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.968 | ×1.008 | 4.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.36% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.968 | ×1.008 | 1.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.75% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .323 → .210; ISO .129 → .073; BABIP .331 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).