Jemone Nuel
SS FCL Orioles| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROKDSL Orioles B… | 198 | .208/.374/.357 | 3 | 20 | 35 | — | .122/.262/.195 |
| 2025 | 18 | ROKDSL Orioles O… | 235 | .261/.437/.398 | 3 | 45 | 57 | — | .168/.312/.251 |
| 2026 | 19 | A/ROKBAL | 320 | .243/.397/.375 | 3 | 37 | 61 | — | .181/.292/.271 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 20 | MLBBAL | 430 | .199/.306/.291 | 4 | 18 | 74 | 0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ25% MLB | 21 | MLBBAL | 66 | .209/.314/.318 | 1 | 3 | 81 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ38% MLB | 22 | MLBBAL | 141 | .214/.318/.334 | 2 | 5 | 85 | 0.2 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Orioles Black | — | 198 | 154 | 32 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 38 | 60 | 3 | 20 | 4 | 208 | 374 | 357 | 732 | 149 | 312 | 30 | 19 | 335 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 235 | 176 | 46 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 51 | 48 | 4 | 45 | 8 | 261 | 437 | 398 | 835 | 136 | 339 | 20 | 22 | 380 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 124 | 106 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 31 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 189 | 295 | 226 | 521 | 38 | 263 | 25 | 12 | 249 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK | FCL Orioles | — | 196 | 145 | 41 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 45 | 33 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 283 | 461 | 483 | 944 | 200 | 342 | 17 | 23 | 416 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Black | — | 198 | 164 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 75 | 3 | 20 | 4 | 122 | 262 | 195 | 457 | 73 | 197 | 38 | 14 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 235 | 191 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 36 | 58 | 4 | 45 | 8 | 168 | 312 | 251 | 563 | 84 | 211 | 25 | 15 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 124 | 110 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 42 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 155 | 238 | 182 | 420 | 27 | 245 | 34 | 9 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 196 | 162 | 32 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 47 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 198 | 326 | 327 | 654 | 130 | 254 | 24 | 14 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Black | — | 198 | 164 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 75 | 3 | 20 | 4 | 122 | 262 | 195 | 457 | 73 | 211 | 38 | 14 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Orioles Black | — | 198 | 154 | 32 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 38 | 60 | 3 | 20 | 4 | 208 | 374 | 357 | 732 | 149 | 312 | 30 | 19 | 335 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 235 | 191 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 36 | 58 | 4 | 45 | 8 | 168 | 312 | 251 | 563 | 84 | 226 | 25 | 15 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 235 | 176 | 46 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 51 | 48 | 4 | 45 | 8 | 261 | 437 | 398 | 835 | 136 | 339 | 20 | 22 | 380 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 320 | 272 | 49 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 39 | 90 | 4 | 37 | 7 | 180 | 292 | 268 | 560 | 88 | 257 | 28 | 12 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 320 | 251 | 61 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 60 | 64 | 4 | 37 | 7 | 243 | 397 | 375 | 771 | 131 | 310 | 20 | 19 | 351 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Black | — | 198 | 165 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 75 | 3 | 20 | 4 | 121 | 262 | 194 | 455 | 73 | 197 | 38 | 14 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 235 | 193 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 36 | 58 | 4 | 45 | 8 | 166 | 312 | 249 | 560 | 83 | 211 | 25 | 15 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 320 | 274 | 49 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 39 | 90 | 4 | 37 | 7 | 179 | 292 | 266 | 558 | 88 | 251 | 28 | 12 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Black | — | 198 | 165 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 75 | 3 | 20 | 4 | 121 | 262 | 194 | 455 | 73 | 197 | 38 | 14 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 235 | 193 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 36 | 58 | 4 | 45 | 8 | 166 | 312 | 249 | 560 | 83 | 211 | 25 | 15 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 320 | 274 | 49 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 39 | 90 | 4 | 37 | 7 | 179 | 292 | 266 | 558 | 88 | 251 | 28 | 12 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB MLE | BAL | 0% | 430 | 370 | 74 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 53 | 119 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 199 | 306 | 291 | 597 | 92 | 279 | 28 | 12 | 278 | 74 | -13 | +2 | -2 | +5 | +9 | 0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 21 | MLB MLE | BAL | 25% | 265 | 228 | 46 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 72 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 205 | 311 | 312 | 623 | 107 | 281 | 27 | 12 | 287 | 81 | -6 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +6 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB MLE | BAL | 38% | 369 | 317 | 68 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 45 | 98 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 211 | 315 | 327 | 642 | 117 | 282 | 27 | 12 | 294 | 85 | -6 | +2 | -1 | +4 | +8 | 0.6 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB MLE | BAL | 45% | 436 | 376 | 81 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 52 | 115 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 215 | 317 | 338 | 656 | 124 | 284 | 26 | 12 | 299 | 89 | -6 | +2 | +0 | +5 | +9 | 1.1 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB MLE | BAL | 48% | 475 | 411 | 89 | 19 | 3 | 9 | 56 | 123 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 218 | 319 | 346 | 665 | 128 | 285 | 26 | 12 | 303 | 91 | -5 | +2 | +2 | +5 | +10 | 1.4 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB MLE | BAL | 50% | 499 | 433 | 95 | 20 | 4 | 10 | 58 | 129 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 219 | 320 | 350 | 670 | 131 | 286 | 26 | 12 | 304 | 92 | -5 | +2 | +3 | +5 | +11 | 1.7 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB MLE | BAL | 50% | 511 | 441 | 97 | 20 | 4 | 10 | 60 | 132 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 219 | 320 | 350 | 670 | 131 | 285 | 26 | 12 | 304 | 92 | -5 | +2 | +3 | +5 | +11 | 1.7 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB MLE | BAL | 50% | 512 | 442 | 97 | 20 | 4 | 10 | 60 | 133 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 218 | 319 | 348 | 666 | 129 | 285 | 26 | 12 | 303 | 91 | -5 | +2 | +3 | +5 | +11 | 1.7 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB MLE | BAL | 50% | 507 | 438 | 95 | 20 | 3 | 10 | 59 | 132 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 216 | 317 | 343 | 660 | 127 | 284 | 26 | 12 | 300 | 89 | -6 | +2 | +3 | +5 | +11 | 1.4 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB MLE | BAL | 49% | 496 | 430 | 91 | 19 | 3 | 9 | 58 | 131 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 214 | 314 | 337 | 651 | 123 | 283 | 26 | 12 | 297 | 87 | -8 | +1 | +2 | +5 | +11 | 1.2 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB MLE | BAL | 52% | 485 | 421 | 89 | 19 | 3 | 8 | 56 | 130 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 211 | 311 | 329 | 640 | 118 | 281 | 27 | 12 | 293 | 84 | -9 | +1 | +1 | +5 | +11 | 0.9 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB MLE | BAL | 55% | 468 | 407 | 84 | 18 | 3 | 7 | 54 | 127 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 207 | 306 | 320 | 626 | 113 | 278 | 27 | 12 | 287 | 80 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 0.5 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB MLE | BAL | 57% | 447 | 389 | 78 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 51 | 123 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 202 | 300 | 308 | 608 | 106 | 274 | 28 | 11 | 280 | 75 | -13 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +10 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB CTX | BAL | 25% | 66 | 57 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 209 | 314 | 318 | 633 | 110 | 285 | 27 | 12 | 291 | 81 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB CTX | BAL | 38% | 141 | 121 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 38 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 214 | 318 | 334 | 652 | 120 | 287 | 27 | 12 | 298 | 85 | -2 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB CTX | BAL | 45% | 198 | 170 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 52 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 218 | 321 | 346 | 666 | 128 | 288 | 26 | 12 | 303 | 89 | -3 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.5 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB CTX | BAL | 48% | 228 | 197 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 59 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 221 | 322 | 354 | 676 | 132 | 290 | 26 | 12 | 307 | 91 | -2 | +1 | +1 | +2 | +5 | 0.7 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB CTX | BAL | 50% | 248 | 214 | 48 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 64 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 223 | 323 | 359 | 681 | 135 | 290 | 26 | 12 | 309 | 92 | -2 | +1 | +2 | +3 | +5 | 0.8 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB CTX | BAL | 50% | 258 | 223 | 50 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 66 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 223 | 323 | 358 | 681 | 135 | 290 | 26 | 12 | 309 | 92 | -2 | +1 | +2 | +3 | +6 | 0.9 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB CTX | BAL | 50% | 256 | 221 | 49 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 66 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 222 | 322 | 356 | 678 | 134 | 289 | 26 | 12 | 307 | 91 | -3 | +1 | +2 | +3 | +6 | 0.8 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB CTX | BAL | 50% | 252 | 218 | 48 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 66 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 220 | 320 | 351 | 671 | 131 | 288 | 26 | 12 | 305 | 89 | -3 | +1 | +1 | +3 | +5 | 0.7 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB CTX | BAL | 49% | 241 | 209 | 47 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 64 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 218 | 317 | 345 | 662 | 127 | 287 | 27 | 12 | 301 | 87 | -4 | +1 | +1 | +3 | +5 | 0.6 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB CTX | BAL | 52% | 253 | 220 | 48 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 68 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 215 | 314 | 337 | 651 | 122 | 285 | 27 | 11 | 297 | 84 | -5 | +1 | +1 | +3 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB CTX | BAL | 55% | 258 | 224 | 47 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 70 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 211 | 309 | 327 | 636 | 116 | 282 | 27 | 12 | 291 | 80 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.3 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB CTX | BAL | 57% | 256 | 223 | 47 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 71 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 205 | 303 | 314 | 617 | 109 | 279 | 28 | 11 | 283 | 75 | -8 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +6 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2655 | 2297 | 502 | 107 | 20 | 49 | 310 | 702 | 27 | 75 | 19 | 219 | 319 | 347 | 665 | 128 | 291 | 26 | 12 | 301 | 82 | -42 | +7 | +8 | +28 | +58 | 6.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 562 | 123 | 26 | 5 | 12 | 76 | 172 | 7 | 18 | 5 | 219 | 319 | 347 | 666 | 128 | 291 | 26 | 12 | 301 | 82 | -10 | +2 | +2 | +7 | +14 | 1.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 6429 | 5537 | 1147 | 244 | 47 | 103 | 769 | 1725 | 68 | 269 | 56 | 207 | 311 | 324 | 635 | 117 | 279 | 27 | 12 | 290 | 82 | -92 | +19 | +14 | +61 | +123 | 12.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 560 | 116 | 25 | 5 | 10 | 78 | 174 | 7 | 27 | 6 | 207 | 312 | 323 | 635 | 116 | 280 | 27 | 12 | 290 | 82 | -11 | +2 | +2 | +7 | +14 | 1.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ROKFCL Orioles · 196 PAwOBA .411 → .296 (−115)K% 16.8% → 24.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.84% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 24.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 22.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 14.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.53% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 15.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 7.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 2.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 2.10% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .411 → .296; ISO .200 → .152; BABIP .342 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 124 PAwOBA .245 → .200 (−45)K% 25.0% → 34.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 34.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.10% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 8.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.81% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.989 | ×1.045 | 20.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.989 | ×1.045 | 4.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.989 | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .245 → .200; ISO .038 → .030; BABIP .263 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 DSLDSL Orioles Orange · 235 PAwOBA .375 → .253 (−121)K% 20.4% → 24.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.43% | ÷1.009 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 21.70% | ÷1.001 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 15.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.70% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.22% | ÷0.989 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 15.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.03% | ÷1.010 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 4.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.34% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 1.17% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.34% | ÷0.913 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 1.22% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 102, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .375 → .253; ISO .136 → .078; BABIP .339 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Orioles Black · 198 PAwOBA .331 → .220 (−111)K% 30.3% → 37.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.30% | ÷0.977 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.19% | ÷0.964 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 14.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.52% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 1.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.15% | ÷1.067 | ×0.680 | ×1.007 | ×1.022 | 12.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.51% | ÷0.988 | ×0.600 | ×1.007 | ×1.022 | 5.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.19% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.007 | ×1.022 | 1.97% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.19% | ÷0.988 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 1.55% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 113, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .331 → .220; ISO .149 → .084; BABIP .312 → .197. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).