Ian Lewis Jr.
SS Pensacola Blue Wahoos| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | AMIA | 477 | .225/.305/.333 | 5 | 33 | 50 | — | .200/.261/.287 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+/AMIA | 283 | .278/.361/.431 | 6 | 32 | 87 | — | .245/.311/.375 |
| 2026 | 23 | AAMIA | 272 | .205/.286/.360 | 10 | 26 | 51 | — | .186/.244/.312 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBMIA | 3 | .211/.268/.338 | 0 | 0 | 76 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 25 | MLBMIA | 62 | .213/.271/.345 | 2 | 3 | 79 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ45% MLB | 26 | MLBMIA | 114 | .215/.274/.348 | 3 | 5 | 80 | 0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Marlins | — | 161 | 149 | 45 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 302 | 354 | 497 | 851 | 195 | 344 | 15 | 7 | 373 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 213 | 185 | 49 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 45 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 265 | 352 | 368 | 720 | 103 | 333 | 21 | 10 | 324 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 477 | 423 | 95 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 44 | 98 | 5 | 33 | 10 | 225 | 305 | 333 | 638 | 109 | 280 | 21 | 9 | 289 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 116 | 105 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 1 | 19 | 3 | 314 | 368 | 410 | 778 | 95 | 367 | 15 | 7 | 344 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 167 | 143 | 36 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 29 | 3 | 13 | 5 | 252 | 355 | 448 | 803 | 196 | 275 | 17 | 12 | 356 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 272 | 239 | 49 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 25 | 44 | 2 | 26 | 6 | 205 | 286 | 360 | 646 | 155 | 207 | 16 | 9 | 285 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Marlins | — | 161 | 153 | 36 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 34 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 235 | 273 | 373 | 646 | 137 | 283 | 21 | 4 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 213 | 191 | 44 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 63 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 230 | 300 | 309 | 609 | 79 | 320 | 30 | 8 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 477 | 436 | 87 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 31 | 128 | 5 | 33 | 10 | 200 | 261 | 287 | 547 | 87 | 265 | 27 | 6 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 116 | 107 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 1 | 19 | 3 | 290 | 333 | 374 | 707 | 84 | 343 | 19 | 5 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 167 | 149 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 39 | 3 | 13 | 5 | 215 | 295 | 376 | 671 | 161 | 256 | 23 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 272 | 247 | 46 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 54 | 2 | 26 | 6 | 186 | 244 | 312 | 556 | 126 | 195 | 20 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Marlins | — | 161 | 153 | 36 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 34 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 235 | 273 | 373 | 646 | 137 | 291 | 21 | 4 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Marlins | — | 161 | 149 | 45 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 302 | 354 | 497 | 851 | 195 | 344 | 15 | 7 | 373 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 213 | 191 | 44 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 63 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 230 | 300 | 309 | 609 | 79 | 326 | 30 | 8 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A RAW | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 213 | 185 | 49 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 45 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 265 | 352 | 368 | 720 | 103 | 333 | 21 | 10 | 324 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 477 | 436 | 87 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 31 | 128 | 5 | 33 | 10 | 200 | 261 | 287 | 547 | 87 | 271 | 27 | 6 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A RAW | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 477 | 423 | 95 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 44 | 98 | 5 | 33 | 10 | 225 | 305 | 333 | 638 | 109 | 280 | 21 | 9 | 289 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 283 | 257 | 63 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 61 | 4 | 32 | 8 | 245 | 307 | 374 | 681 | 128 | 299 | 22 | 7 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 283 | 248 | 69 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 46 | 4 | 32 | 8 | 278 | 361 | 431 | 792 | 153 | 317 | 16 | 10 | 351 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 272 | 247 | 46 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 54 | 2 | 26 | 6 | 186 | 244 | 312 | 556 | 126 | 202 | 20 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA RAW | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 272 | 239 | 49 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 25 | 44 | 2 | 26 | 6 | 205 | 286 | 360 | 646 | 155 | 207 | 16 | 9 | 285 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Marlins | — | 161 | 152 | 36 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 34 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 237 | 273 | 375 | 648 | 138 | 283 | 21 | 4 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 213 | 192 | 44 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 63 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 229 | 300 | 307 | 607 | 78 | 320 | 30 | 8 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 477 | 438 | 87 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 31 | 128 | 5 | 33 | 10 | 199 | 261 | 285 | 546 | 87 | 265 | 27 | 6 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 283 | 258 | 63 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 61 | 4 | 32 | 8 | 244 | 307 | 372 | 679 | 128 | 292 | 22 | 7 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 272 | 251 | 46 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 54 | 2 | 26 | 6 | 183 | 244 | 307 | 551 | 124 | 195 | 20 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 283 | 258 | 63 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 61 | 4 | 32 | 8 | 244 | 307 | 372 | 679 | 128 | 292 | 22 | 7 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 272 | 251 | 46 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 54 | 2 | 26 | 6 | 183 | 244 | 307 | 551 | 124 | 195 | 20 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | MIA | 2% | 322 | 296 | 65 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 68 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 218 | 274 | 354 | 628 | 135 | 252 | 21 | 6 | 280 | 76 | -9 | +2 | +0 | +3 | +7 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | MIA | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 268 | 338 | 606 | 127 | 244 | 33 | 0 | 271 | 76 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | MIA | 31% | 201 | 184 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 221 | 278 | 360 | 638 | 140 | 254 | 21 | 6 | 284 | 79 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIA | 45% | 255 | 234 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 54 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 222 | 280 | 364 | 644 | 142 | 256 | 21 | 7 | 287 | 80 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIA | 49% | 283 | 260 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 60 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 222 | 281 | 363 | 645 | 141 | 257 | 21 | 7 | 287 | 81 | -7 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIA | 52% | 300 | 275 | 60 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 65 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 222 | 282 | 361 | 643 | 140 | 258 | 22 | 7 | 287 | 80 | -7 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +6 | 0.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIA | 52% | 300 | 274 | 60 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 66 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 221 | 281 | 358 | 639 | 137 | 259 | 22 | 7 | 285 | 79 | -7 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB MLE | MIA | 52% | 298 | 274 | 60 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 66 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 218 | 277 | 351 | 628 | 133 | 257 | 22 | 7 | 281 | 76 | -8 | +1 | -2 | +3 | +6 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | MIA | 31% | 62 | 57 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 213 | 271 | 345 | 616 | 131 | 246 | 21 | 6 | 275 | 79 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIA | 45% | 114 | 104 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 24 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 215 | 274 | 348 | 621 | 133 | 248 | 21 | 7 | 278 | 80 | -3 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIA | 49% | 139 | 128 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 30 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 215 | 275 | 347 | 622 | 133 | 249 | 22 | 6 | 278 | 81 | -3 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIA | 52% | 155 | 142 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 214 | 275 | 345 | 620 | 131 | 250 | 22 | 7 | 277 | 80 | -4 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIA | 52% | 155 | 142 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 213 | 274 | 342 | 616 | 129 | 250 | 22 | 7 | 276 | 79 | -4 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB CTX | MIA | 52% | 154 | 142 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 34 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 211 | 271 | 335 | 606 | 125 | 249 | 22 | 6 | 272 | 76 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 779 | 715 | 155 | 26 | 5 | 21 | 53 | 169 | 6 | 29 | 6 | 217 | 276 | 355 | 632 | 138 | 253 | 22 | 7 | 276 | 72 | -19 | +3 | -2 | +8 | +17 | 0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 597 | 130 | 22 | 4 | 18 | 44 | 141 | 5 | 24 | 5 | 218 | 277 | 358 | 636 | 141 | 253 | 22 | 7 | 276 | 72 | -16 | +3 | -2 | +7 | +14 | 0.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3203 | 2933 | 638 | 110 | 22 | 70 | 210 | 727 | 28 | 179 | 45 | 218 | 276 | 342 | 618 | 124 | 263 | 23 | 7 | 274 | 72 | -45 | +6 | -4 | +19 | +39 | 1.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 595 | 128 | 22 | 4 | 14 | 43 | 148 | 6 | 36 | 9 | 215 | 275 | 336 | 611 | 121 | 261 | 23 | 7 | 274 | 72 | -16 | +2 | -2 | +7 | +14 | 0.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 272 PAwOBA .279 → .244 (−35)K% 16.2% → 19.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.18% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 6.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.008 | ×1.027 | 16.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.008 | ×1.027 | 2.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.51% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×1.008 | ×1.027 | 0.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.13% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 4.21% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .279 → .244; ISO .155 → .134; BABIP .207 → .195. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AJupiter Hammerheads · 167 PAwOBA .349 → .289 (−60)K% 17.4% → 23.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.37% | ÷1.014 | ×1.360 | — | — | 23.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.98% | ÷1.018 | ×0.690 | — | — | 8.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.80% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.30% | ÷1.019 | ×0.920 | ×1.040 | — | 18.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.947 | ×0.830 | ×1.040 | — | 4.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.75% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.040 | — | 1.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.035 | ×0.800 | — | — | 4.07% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 104, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 103, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.
Result: wOBA .349 → .289; ISO .196 → .162; BABIP .275 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 116 PAwOBA .341 → .305 (−37)K% 14.7% → 19.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.66% | ÷0.972 | ×1.270 | — | — | 19.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.90% | ÷0.978 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 5.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.86% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷1.028 | ×0.920 | ×1.049 | ×1.012 | 25.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.961 | ×0.810 | ×1.049 | ×1.012 | 8.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.049 | ×1.012 | 1.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.006 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 106, 2B 92, 3B 100, K 94, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.049.
Result: wOBA .341 → .305; ISO .095 → .084; BABIP .367 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AJupiter Hammerheads · 477 PAwOBA .283 → .242 (−41)K% 20.5% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.55% | ÷1.039 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.22% | ÷0.996 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 6.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.05% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.985 | ×0.920 | ×1.029 | ×1.030 | 19.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.85% | ÷1.031 | ×0.830 | ×1.029 | ×1.030 | 4.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.85% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.029 | ×1.030 | 1.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.54% | ÷0.924 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.37% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 97, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 108, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.
Result: wOBA .283 → .242; ISO .109 → .090; BABIP .280 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AJupiter Hammerheads · 213 PAwOBA .319 → .272 (−47)K% 21.1% → 29.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.13% | ÷0.967 | ×1.360 | — | — | 29.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.86% | ÷0.978 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 7.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.41% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 1.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.43% | ÷1.004 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.045 | 26.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.156 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.045 | 3.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.14% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.045 | 1.86% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.43% | ÷0.959 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 1.25% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 101, 2B 131, 3B 130, K 93, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .319 → .272; ISO .103 → .081; BABIP .333 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKFCL Marlins · 161 PAwOBA .363 → .274 (−89)K% 14.9% → 21.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.91% | ÷1.013 | ×1.440 | — | — | 21.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.83% | ÷0.984 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 4.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.62% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.60% | ÷0.969 | ×0.820 | ×1.012 | ×1.022 | 18.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.00% | ÷1.011 | ×0.720 | ×1.012 | ×1.022 | 5.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.011 | ×0.720 | ×1.012 | ×1.022 | 2.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.40% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 1.91% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 94, 2B 102, 3B 102, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .363 → .274; ISO .195 → .140; BABIP .344 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).