Juan Medina

P DSL Red Sox Blue

Age 20 RHP 5'11" / 190 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	17	ROKDSL Red Sox B…	6	1	13	7.11	5.94	11.9%	19.4%	—	K 8.1% · BB 24.3% · FIP 6.64
2025	18	ROKDSL Red Sox B…	14	9	35	8.23	5.10	15.0%	13.3%	—	K 10.2% · BB 16.7% · FIP 6.21
2027PROJ	20	MLBBOS	4	4	18	5.36	5.36	19.5%	14.8%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBBOS	3	3	16	5.11	5.02	20.5%	13.0%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsJuan Mendez (age 22) · Jhoster Baez (age 19) · Kobe Robinson (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.36

FIP5.36

K%19.5%

BB%14.8%

K-BB%4.7%

Proj IP18

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	6	1	13	67	8	13	1	17%	2.1	8.1%	24.3%	-16.1%	2.1%	7.11	6.64	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	6	1	13	67	8	13	1	17%	2.1	8.1%	24.3%	-16.1%	2.1%	7.11	6.64	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Blue	6	1	13	67	8	13	1	17%	2.1	11.9%	19.4%	-7.5%	1.5%	7.11	5.94	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	14	9	35	180	27	24	4	64%	2.5	10.2%	16.7%	-6.5%	3.4%	8.23	6.21	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	14	9	35	180	27	24	4	64%	2.5	10.2%	16.7%	-6.5%	3.4%	8.23	6.21	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Blue	14	9	35	180	27	24	4	64%	2.5	15.0%	13.3%	1.7%	2.2%	8.23	5.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	BOS	4	4	18	76	15	11	2	100%	4.5	19.5%	14.8%	4.7%	3.0%	5.36	5.36	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	BOS	7	7	33	140	29	18	4	100%	4.7	20.5%	13.0%	7.5%	2.9%	5.11	5.02	-0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	BOS	3	3	16	68	14	9	2	100%	5.3	20.5%	13.0%	7.5%	2.9%	5.11	5.02	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	16	69	14	9	2	100%	5.4	20.5%	13.0%	7.5%	2.9%	5.11	4.64	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	41	200	844	172	111	25	100%	4.8	20.5%	13.0%	7.5%	2.9%	5.11	4.64	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		20	10	48	247	24	46	7	50%	2.4	9.6%	18.7%	-9.1%	3.0%	7.93	6.32	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		84	42	200	1036	100	194	31	50%	2.4	9.6%	18.7%	-9.1%	3.0%	7.93	6.32	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Medina (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.36	19.5%	14.8%	3.0%	—	5.02	20.5%	7.5%	33	-0.34	—	—	—
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	86
Jhoster Baez R 2024 · 4.57 FIP	19	SP-	4.57	17.3%	14.8%	1.9%	.283	5.93	15.9%	-5.0%	73	+1.36	4.57	110	85
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	83
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	82
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	82
Keegan Zinn R 2024 · 6.40 FIP	19	SP-	6.40	19.1%	19.5%	4.4%	.318	5.80	19.0%	-1.9%	112	-0.60	4.88	145	81
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.71	17.6%	1.2%	150	+0.03	4.54	203	81
Jaydenn Estanista R 2022 · 5.61 FIP	20	SW	5.61	20.2%	16.9%	3.8%	.172	5.14	20.6%	2.4%	123	-0.47	4.59	230	81
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	81
Alfred Vega R 2021 · 4.56 FIP	20	SP-	4.56	20.5%	16.0%	2.1%	.203	4.66	13.4%	0.6%	81	+0.10	2.07	234	80
Trayson Kubo R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SW	5.01	19.8%	15.6%	2.9%	.450	4.82	17.7%	1.4%	66	-0.19	4.48	107	80
Lisander Brito R 2022 · 5.62 FIP	20	SP-	5.62	14.1%	15.0%	3.3%	.309	3.23	18.9%	5.3%	21	-2.39	3.23	101	80
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	80
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	80
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	80
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	80
Engel Daniel Peralta R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	20	SW	5.28	17.7%	15.0%	3.2%	.300	5.89	16.6%	1.2%	33	+0.61	3.34	129	80
Luis De La Cruz R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	20	SW	4.31	17.5%	16.9%	1.0%	.281	5.19	18.3%	-2.9%	124	+0.88	3.55	158	79
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	79
Miguel Alfonseca R 2021 · 4.19 FIP	21	SP-	4.19	18.3%	12.1%	2.0%	.400	5.36	14.9%	-0.9%	92	+1.17	4.19	123	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	20.2%	13.7%	1.15	5.20
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88