Lonell Downs — OGILVIE

Lonell Downs P DSL Brewers Blue

Age 20 RHP 5'9" / 184 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 23 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.25

FIP5.25

K%20.5%

BB%15.1%

K-BB%5.4%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	11	3	37	152	35	19	0	27%	3.4	15.7%	15.6%	0.0%	0.0%	3.86	3.76	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	11	3	37	152	35	19	0	27%	3.4	15.7%	15.6%	0.0%	0.0%	3.86	3.76	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 2	11	3	37	152	35	19	0	27%	3.4	23.0%	12.5%	10.5%	0.0%	3.86	2.75	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	11	7	38	180	37	26	0	64%	3.5	14.0%	18.1%	-4.1%	0.0%	5.87	4.21	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	11	7	38	180	37	26	0	64%	3.5	14.0%	18.1%	-4.1%	0.0%	5.87	4.21	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers Blue	11	7	38	180	37	26	0	64%	3.5	20.6%	14.4%	6.1%	0.0%	5.87	3.20	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	8	0	8	37	8	7	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	18.9%	2.7%	2.7%	1.12	5.15	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	8	0	8	37	8	7	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	18.9%	2.7%	2.7%	1.12	5.15	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers Blue	8	0	8	37	8	7	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	18.9%	2.7%	2.7%	1.12	5.35	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	MIL	22	0	23	97	20	15	3	0%	1.0	20.5%	15.1%	5.4%	2.9%	5.25	5.25	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	MIL	34	0	36	153	32	20	4	0%	1.1	21.3%	13.2%	8.0%	2.9%	5.02	4.93	-0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	MIL	17	0	18	76	16	10	2	0%	1.1	21.3%	13.2%	8.0%	2.9%	5.02	4.93	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	75	16	10	2	0%	1.0	21.3%	13.2%	8.0%	2.9%	5.02	4.55	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	180	112	22	0%	1.1	21.3%	13.2%	8.0%	2.9%	5.02	4.55	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		30	10	84	369	57	63	1	33%	2.8	15.4%	17.1%	-1.7%	0.3%	4.52	4.12	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	24	200	882	136	151	2	33%	2.8	15.4%	17.1%	-1.7%	0.3%	4.52	4.12	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lonell Downs (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.25	20.5%	15.1%	2.9%	—	4.93	21.3%	8.0%	36	-0.32	—	—	—
Will Kobos R 2018 · 5.58 FIP	20	SW	5.58	19.3%	16.0%	3.8%	.313	3.46	26.6%	11.6%	76	-2.12	2.44	139	90
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	87
Johzan Oquendo R 2021 · 4.22 FIP	20	SW	4.22	18.4%	14.5%	1.5%	.294	3.65	23.5%	5.7%	113	-0.57	3.62	187	87
Denny Larrondo R 2021 · 4.77 FIP	19	SW	4.77	22.7%	17.5%	2.5%	.293	5.26	18.1%	-0.4%	155	+0.49	4.48	293	86
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	85
Rafael Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.11 FIP	20	SW	4.11	21.8%	16.3%	1.4%	.303	5.08	15.7%	-4.4%	82	+0.97	3.42	162	85
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	84
Over Galue R 2021 · 5.01 FIP	20	SW	5.01	17.5%	17.0%	2.2%	.346	4.16	18.2%	3.6%	94	-0.85	4.16	122	83
Jose Vasquez R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	19	SW	4.12	21.9%	13.4%	2.1%	.359	6.49	15.6%	-10.2%	66	+2.37	4.12	123	83
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	83
Engel Daniel Peralta R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	20	SW	5.28	17.7%	15.0%	3.2%	.300	5.89	16.6%	1.2%	33	+0.61	3.34	129	83
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.00	538	83
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	82
Joel Ibarra R 2022 · 4.08 FIP	20	SW	4.08	21.4%	13.8%	1.9%	.323	4.74	19.6%	-3.4%	86	+0.66	4.08	155	82
Anderson Cardenas R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	18	SW	4.90	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.235	3.52	22.2%	8.8%	58	-1.38	3.52	129	82
Juan Burgos R 2019 · 4.75 FIP	19	SW	4.75	15.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.292	4.38	17.7%	0.8%	58	-0.37	3.50	284	81
Sam Ryan R 2021 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	16.4%	14.7%	1.5%	.328	3.85	13.7%	2.9%	49	-0.53	3.80	178	81
Jaydenn Estanista R 2022 · 5.61 FIP	20	SW	5.61	20.2%	16.9%	3.8%	.172	5.14	20.6%	2.4%	123	-0.47	4.59	230	80
Alix Hernandez R 2024 · 4.44 FIP	20	SU	4.44	21.7%	13.7%	2.6%	.300	5.16	23.0%	11.4%	78	+0.72	3.55	170	80
Nicolas Cruz R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	20	SW	4.84	19.2%	16.1%	2.4%	.437	3.32	20.4%	11.4%	117	-1.52	3.01	194	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	21.0%	13.9%	1.11	5.11
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27