Lonell Downs
P
DSL Brewers Blue
+0.2
WAR
Age 19
RHP
5'9" / 184 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.6 · 2033
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.1%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%11.6%
IP32
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2033
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Brewers 2 | 11 | 3 | 37 | 152 | 35 | 19 | 0 | 15.7% | 15.6% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 3.76 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Brewers Blue | 11 | 7 | 38 | 180 | 37 | 26 | 0 | 14.0% | 18.1% | 0.0% | 5.87 | 4.21 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | MLB | MIL | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 30 | 14 | 4 | 22.1% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | MIL | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 32 | 14 | 4 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.32 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB | MIL | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.27 | 4.20 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB | MIL | 37 | — | 37 | 158 | 38 | 14 | 4 | 24.0% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.13 | 4.03 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB | MIL | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 40 | 14 | 4 | 24.7% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 4.00 | 3.90 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 42 | 14 | 4 | 25.3% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 3.89 | 3.81 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 44 | 14 | 4 | 25.6% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 3.81 | 3.76 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 44 | 14 | 4 | 25.8% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 3.77 | 3.74 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 44 | 14 | 4 | 25.9% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 3.76 | 3.75 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 43 | 13 | 4 | 25.8% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 3.77 | 3.77 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 38 | — | 38 | 163 | 42 | 13 | 4 | 25.7% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 3.80 | 3.82 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 40 | 13 | 4 | 25.5% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 3.85 | 3.88 | +0.5 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 38 | 13 | 4 | 25.2% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 3.91 | 3.95 | +0.4 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 35 | — | 35 | 146 | 36 | 13 | 4 | 25.0% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 3.99 | 4.04 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 22 | 10 | 76 | 332 | 49 | 56 | 0 | 14.7% | 16.9% | 0.0% | 4.88 | 4.00 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 26 | 200 | 878 | 130 | 148 | 0 | 14.7% | 16.9% | 0.0% | 4.88 | 4.00 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lonell Downs (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 22.1% | 10.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.18 | 23.3% | 14.0% | 107 | -0.29 | — | — | — |
| Luis Arejula R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.49 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .318 | 4.43 | 15.7% | 3.5% | 71 | +0.94 | 3.49 | 115 | 90 |
| Harold Cortijo R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.46 | 19.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .309 | 5.60 | 13.5% | 2.2% | 73 | +1.14 | 4.15 | 179 | 90 |
| Blake Workman R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.00 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .307 | 3.94 | 23.8% | 19.5% | 105 | -0.06 | 3.11 | 213 | 89 |
| Edwin Jimenez R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.30 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 3.1% | .330 | 4.81 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 277 | +0.51 | 4.30 | 358 | 89 |
| Osiris German R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.26 | 20.6% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .346 | 3.14 | 26.3% | 15.5% | 59 | -1.12 | 3.11 | 187 | 89 |
| Kyle Glogoski R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.46 | 19.9% | 8.5% | 1.7% | .277 | 3.93 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 93 | +0.47 | 3.32 | 206 | 88 |
| Eccel Correa R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.34 | 19.4% | 11.9% | 2.5% | .316 | 4.01 | 14.2% | 3.6% | 122 | -0.33 | 3.99 | 157 | 88 |
| Jerming Rosario R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.92 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 4.1% | .303 | 4.44 | 20.9% | 5.7% | 281 | -0.48 | 3.05 | 442 | 87 |
| Layonel Ovalles R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.56 | 23.1% | 10.2% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.59 | 17.4% | 3.0% | 146 | +1.03 | 2.60 | 227 | 87 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2028 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.96 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.10 | 3.46 | 146 | 87 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.83 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 3.7% | .277 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.32 | 4.03 | 266 | 86 |
| Carlos Jimenez R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.16 | 20.6% | 12.9% | 2.1% | .274 | 5.22 | 20.4% | -0.0% | 141 | +1.06 | 4.07 | 257 | 86 |
| Felix Castro R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.50 | 24.0% | 12.2% | 1.6% | .295 | 4.96 | 14.9% | -1.8% | 97 | +1.46 | 3.50 | 144 | 86 |
| Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.09 | 25.1% | 13.3% | 2.6% | .327 | 3.29 | 23.8% | 13.4% | 81 | -0.80 | 3.20 | 104 | 86 |
| Pedro Da Costa Lemos R 2027 · 3.71 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.71 | 23.5% | 13.2% | 1.7% | .286 | 4.77 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 157 | +1.06 | 3.71 | 181 | 86 |
| Danny Dopico R 2028 · 3.87 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.87 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .333 | 3.88 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 173 | +0.01 | 3.00 | 318 | 86 |
| Patricio Aquino R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.19 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 2.3% | .321 | 3.97 | 15.1% | 5.8% | 234 | -0.22 | 3.56 | 313 | 86 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2029 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 86 |
| Mason Fox R 2028 · 3.59 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.59 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .260 | 6.61 | 21.3% | 4.8% | 30 | +3.02 | 3.59 | 112 | 86 |
| Robinson Hernandez R 2027 · 3.38 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.38 | 19.6% | 9.0% | 1.4% | .328 | 4.37 | 17.5% | 7.0% | 102 | +0.99 | 2.62 | 166 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2037 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $10M | +$7M | ||