Nicolas Cruz — OGILVIE

Nicolas Cruz P Great Lakes Loons

Age 22 RHP 5'11" / 160 lbs A+ peak 0.3 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

K%18.5%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	15	0	22	101	20	4	3	0%	1.5	13.5%	5.0%	8.5%	4.3%	3.63	4.93	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	15	0	22	101	20	4	3	0%	1.5	19.8%	4.0%	15.8%	3.0%	3.63	3.59	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	11	6	28	123	21	8	0	55%	2.6	11.6%	8.1%	3.5%	0.0%	2.86	3.15	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	11	6	28	123	21	8	0	55%	2.6	11.6%	8.1%	3.5%	0.0%	2.86	3.15	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	11	6	28	123	21	8	0	55%	2.6	17.1%	6.5%	10.6%	0.0%	2.86	2.46	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	2	32	143	42	16	2	13%	2.1	19.2%	16.1%	3.1%	2.4%	5.06	4.84	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	2	32	143	42	16	2	13%	2.1	19.2%	16.1%	3.1%	2.4%	5.06	4.84	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	2	32	143	42	16	2	13%	2.1	29.4%	11.2%	18.2%	1.4%	5.06	2.79	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	2	62	250	63	16	2	5%	1.7	18.8%	7.5%	11.3%	1.0%	3.65	3.01	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	2	62	250	63	16	2	5%	1.7	18.8%	7.5%	11.3%	1.0%	3.65	3.01	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	2	62	250	63	16	2	5%	1.7	25.2%	6.4%	18.8%	0.8%	3.65	2.26	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	37	0	55	250	72	23	4	0%	1.5	22.2%	10.6%	11.6%	2.0%	5.07	3.67	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	37	0	55	250	72	23	4	0%	1.5	22.2%	10.6%	11.6%	2.0%	5.07	3.67	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	LAD	37	0	55	250	72	23	4	0%	1.5	28.8%	9.2%	19.6%	1.6%	5.07	2.71	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	LAD	55	0	58	243	48	21	7	0%	1.0	19.7%	8.5%	11.2%	2.7%	4.43	4.38	+0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAD	56	0	59	249	51	21	7	0%	1.1	20.5%	8.3%	12.2%	2.7%	4.34	4.28	+0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAD	57	0	60	252	53	21	7	0%	1.0	21.1%	8.3%	12.8%	2.7%	4.27	4.23	+0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAD	57	0	60	252	54	21	7	0%	1.0	21.3%	8.2%	13.1%	2.7%	4.23	4.21	+0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAD	56	0	59	248	53	21	7	0%	1.1	21.3%	8.3%	13.0%	2.8%	4.24	4.24	+0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	LAD	27	0	28	118	23	10	3	0%	1.0	19.7%	8.5%	11.2%	2.7%	4.43	4.38	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAD	39	0	41	173	36	14	5	0%	1.1	20.5%	8.3%	12.2%	2.7%	4.34	4.28	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAD	46	0	48	203	43	17	5	0%	1.0	21.1%	8.3%	12.8%	2.7%	4.27	4.23	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAD	50	0	52	220	47	18	6	0%	1.0	21.3%	8.2%	13.1%	2.7%	4.23	4.21	+0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAD	50	0	53	224	48	19	6	0%	1.1	21.3%	8.3%	13.0%	2.8%	4.24	4.24	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		213	0	223	944	197	79	26	0%	1.0	20.9%	8.3%	12.6%	2.7%	4.29	3.88	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	71	23	0%	1.1	20.9%	8.3%	12.6%	2.7%	4.29	3.88	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		115	10	199	867	158	83	15	9%	1.7	18.2%	9.6%	8.6%	1.8%	4.15	3.74	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		115	10	200	870	158	84	15	9%	1.7	18.2%	9.6%	8.6%	1.8%	4.15	3.74	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nicolas Cruz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.54	18.5%	8.9%	2.7%	—	4.30	20.4%	12.1%	176	-0.24	—	—	—
Matt Frawley R 2018 · 4.35 FIP	22	SU	4.35	19.5%	10.0%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	2.25	139	91
Matt Anderson R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	23	SU	3.84	17.4%	7.5%	2.3%	.288	2.99	17.5%	10.7%	62	-0.85	2.99	129	91
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	91
David Garner R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	22	SU	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	90
Brian Glowicki R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	17.4%	8.8%	2.1%	.254	3.71	22.4%	14.4%	89	-0.20	2.31	189	89
Fred Villarreal R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SU	3.93	17.6%	6.8%	2.6%	.331	3.64	14.1%	3.5%	63	-0.29	3.64	114	89
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	89
Brett Standlee R 2022 · 4.13 FIP	23	SU	4.13	19.7%	11.1%	2.4%	.322	4.45	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.32	4.13	128	89
Blaze Pontes R 2023 · 3.61 FIP	23	SU	3.61	18.2%	9.4%	1.6%	.330	4.79	11.3%	-0.9%	187	+1.18	3.37	248	89
Kyle Whitten R 2022 · 4.32 FIP	23	SU	4.32	17.2%	7.0%	3.2%	.264	4.71	17.8%	8.2%	85	+0.39	4.32	152	88
Matthew Gorst R 2017 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	15.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.269	3.89	16.6%	8.0%	130	-0.24	3.20	199	88
Osmer Morales R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	22	SU	4.24	17.8%	7.7%	3.0%	.319	4.55	19.2%	9.6%	345	+0.31	3.14	429	88
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	88
Will Latcham R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	22	SU	3.52	20.1%	9.4%	1.7%	.262	5.28	16.0%	4.7%	79	+1.76	3.52	134	88
Tyler Schoff R 2022 · 4.25 FIP	23	SU	4.25	19.6%	10.8%	2.6%	.350	3.72	23.8%	15.7%	93	-0.53	3.69	190	88
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	88
Reece Karalus R 2016 · 4.80 FIP	22	SU	4.80	18.5%	8.6%	4.0%	.298	4.81	14.8%	4.1%	103	+0.01	4.73	149	88
Johnny Barbato R 2015 · 3.57 FIP	23	SU	3.57	21.3%	9.4%	2.0%	.284	4.32	21.6%	11.4%	167	+0.75	2.59	304	88
Carlos Torres R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	22	SU	4.10	15.2%	9.0%	2.1%	.315	4.39	15.2%	8.6%	125	+0.29	3.71	187	87
Andrew Bellatti R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.3%	8.8%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.67	278	87

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	58	20.4%	8.4%	1.05	4.34
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97