Nicolas Cruz
P
Great Lakes Loons
+0.4
WAR
Age 22
RHP
5'11" / 160 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.6 · 2029
ERA4.26
FIP4.26
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.9%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%12.9%
IP48
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2029
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL LAD Mega | 15 | 0 | 22 | 101 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.63 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL LAD Mega | 11 | 6 | 28 | 123 | 21 | 8 | 0 | 11.6% | 8.1% | 0.0% | 2.86 | 3.15 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 15 | 2 | 32 | 143 | 42 | 16 | 2 | 19.2% | 16.1% | 2.5% | 5.06 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 37 | 2 | 62 | 250 | 63 | 16 | 2 | 18.8% | 7.5% | 1.0% | 3.65 | 3.00 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 4 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 9 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | LAD | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 44 | 18 | 5 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.26 | 4.26 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 54 | 228 | 53 | 19 | 5 | 23.3% | 8.4% | 2.4% | 4.12 | 3.78 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | LAD | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 48 | 18 | 6 | 22.8% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.18 | 4.13 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 50 | 18 | 6 | 23.4% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 4.05 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 52 | 18 | 6 | 23.8% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 4.05 | 4.00 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 52 | 18 | 6 | 23.9% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 4.02 | 3.99 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 52 | 18 | 6 | 24.0% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 4.01 | 4.00 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 51 | 18 | 6 | 23.9% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 4.02 | 4.02 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 49 | 17 | 6 | 23.8% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.05 | 4.07 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 47 | 17 | 6 | 23.6% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 4.13 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 46 | — | 46 | 194 | 45 | 17 | 6 | 23.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.21 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 43 | 16 | 6 | 23.1% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.29 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 40 | 16 | 5 | 22.8% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 4.39 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 38 | 15 | 5 | 22.4% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.43 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 38 | — | 38 | 159 | 35 | 15 | 5 | 22.0% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 82 | 10 | 150 | 643 | 111 | 58 | 10 | 17.3% | 9.0% | 1.6% | 3.77 | 3.67 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 109 | 13 | 200 | 855 | 148 | 77 | 13 | 17.3% | 9.0% | 1.6% | 3.77 | 3.67 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nicolas Cruz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.26 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 2.7% | — | 4.06 | 23.3% | 14.9% | 152 | -0.20 | — | — | — |
| Cody Palmquist R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.95 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.75 | 4.20 | 104 | 95 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 93 |
| Austin Smith R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 92 |
| Heath Holder R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 92 |
| Addison Russ R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.55 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .324 | 3.08 | 25.6% | 17.5% | 121 | -0.47 | 3.07 | 194 | 91 |
| Kevin Coulter R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.27 | 21.0% | 7.4% | 1.8% | .287 | 4.54 | 16.1% | 7.6% | 92 | +1.27 | 3.27 | 128 | 91 |
| Clark Beeker R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.04 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .270 | 4.34 | 11.6% | 6.4% | 244 | +0.30 | 4.04 | 287 | 91 |
| Chad Patrick R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.82 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 4.23 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.41 | 3.72 | 483 | 90 |
| J.T. Hintzen R 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.22 | 20.1% | 7.0% | 1.7% | .303 | 4.37 | 24.1% | 15.1% | 123 | +1.15 | 3.22 | 205 | 89 |
| Tyler Bray R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.06 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.22 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.84 | 2.82 | 152 | 89 |
| Owen Holt R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.81 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .258 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.72 | 3.81 | 145 | 89 |
| Corey Copping R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.13 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .265 | 4.57 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 179 | +0.44 | 3.39 | 214 | 89 |
| Dylan DeLucia R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.83 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .241 | 5.00 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 108 | +1.17 | 3.83 | 144 | 89 |
| Connor Cooke R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.37 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .350 | 4.28 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.91 | 2.93 | 103 | 89 |
| Caleb Sampen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.46 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .358 | 3.49 | 15.2% | 6.8% | 139 | +0.03 | 3.09 | 213 | 88 |
| Devon Roedahl R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 19.7% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.67 | 16.5% | 9.2% | 100 | +0.73 | 3.94 | 122 | 88 |
| Peyton Williams R 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.66 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.87 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.21 | 3.66 | 123 | 88 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2028 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.72 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .282 | 5.28 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.56 | 3.72 | 105 | 88 |
| Michael Gomez R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.33 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.33 | 286 | 88 |
| Collin Kober R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.39 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .268 | 2.76 | 24.0% | 17.9% | 128 | -0.63 | 2.38 | 294 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.7M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.1M |
| Totals | $7M | $14M | +$7M | ||