Nicolas Cruz
P
Great Lakes Loons
Age 22
RHP
5'11" / 160 lbs
A+
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION35 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 102
ERA4.48
FIP4.48
K%18.5%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%10.1%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 88 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL LAD Mega | 15 | 0 | 22 | 101 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 13.5% | 5.0% | 8.5% | 4.4% | 3.63 | 4.99 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL LAD Mega | 15 | 0 | 22 | 101 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.8% | 4.0% | 15.8% | 3.0% | 3.63 | 3.59 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL LAD Mega | 11 | 6 | 28 | 123 | 21 | 8 | 0 | 55% | 2.6 | 11.6% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 0.0% | 2.86 | 3.15 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL LAD Mega | 11 | 6 | 28 | 123 | 21 | 8 | 0 | 55% | 2.6 | 17.1% | 6.5% | 10.6% | 0.0% | 2.86 | 2.46 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 2 | 32 | 143 | 42 | 16 | 2 | 13% | 2.1 | 19.2% | 16.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 5.06 | 4.92 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 2 | 32 | 143 | 42 | 16 | 2 | 13% | 2.1 | 29.4% | 11.2% | 18.2% | 1.4% | 5.06 | 2.79 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 2 | 62 | 250 | 63 | 16 | 2 | 5% | 1.7 | 18.8% | 7.5% | 11.3% | 1.0% | 3.65 | 2.99 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 2 | 62 | 250 | 63 | 16 | 2 | 5% | 1.7 | 25.2% | 6.4% | 18.8% | 0.8% | 3.65 | 2.26 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 23 | 0 | 35 | 157 | 49 | 16 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 24.0% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 0.8% | 4.37 | 2.99 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | LAD | 50 | 0 | 52 | 222 | 41 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.5% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 4.48 | 4.48 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 88 | 379 | 90 | 35 | 7 | — | — | 23.8% | 9.1% | 14.6% | 1.9% | 4.44 | 3.88 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 18.5% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 4.48 | 4.10 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | LAD | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 45 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 2.7% | 4.38 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 48 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 12.5% | 2.7% | 4.30 | 4.24 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 54 | 0 | 57 | 239 | 50 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 8.0% | 13.1% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 54 | 0 | 57 | 239 | 51 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 8.0% | 13.4% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 4.17 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 50 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 8.0% | 13.3% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | LAD | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 2.7% | 4.38 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 34 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 12.5% | 2.7% | 4.30 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 41 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 8.0% | 13.1% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 44 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 8.0% | 13.4% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 4.17 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 45 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 8.0% | 13.3% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 202 | 0 | 212 | 896 | 187 | 72 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 8.0% | 12.9% | 2.7% | 4.25 | 3.84 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 176 | 68 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 8.0% | 12.9% | 2.7% | 4.25 | 3.84 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 101 | 10 | 179 | 774 | 140 | 75 | 12 | 10% | 1.8 | 18.1% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 1.5% | 3.91 | 3.64 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 113 | 11 | 200 | 863 | 156 | 84 | 13 | 10% | 1.8 | 18.1% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 1.5% | 3.91 | 3.64 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nicolas Cruz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.48 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 2.7% | — | 4.25 | 20.4% | 12.4% | 167 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Matt Anderson R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.02 | 17.4% | 7.5% | 2.6% | .288 | 3.00 | 17.5% | 10.7% | 62 | -1.02 | 3.00 | 129 | 92 |
| Matt Pidich R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.42 | 17.1% | 8.3% | 3.1% | .303 | 4.13 | 20.8% | 13.3% | 115 | -0.29 | 4.10 | 196 | 91 |
| Fred Villarreal R 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.84 | 17.6% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .331 | 3.57 | 14.1% | 3.5% | 63 | -0.27 | 3.57 | 114 | 90 |
| Matt Frawley R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.21 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.7% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.27 | 139 | 90 |
| Luke Bell R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .295 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 1.3% | 66 | +1.96 | 3.89 | 110 | 90 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.04 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .278 | 5.78 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.74 | 4.04 | 104 | 89 |
| David Garner R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .282 | 4.65 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +0.71 | 3.94 | 154 | 89 |
| Kyle Whitten R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.32 | 17.2% | 7.0% | 3.2% | .264 | 4.67 | 18.1% | 8.0% | 85 | +0.35 | 4.26 | 152 | 89 |
| Brian Glowicki R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.09 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.78 | 22.4% | 14.4% | 89 | -0.31 | 2.36 | 189 | 89 |
| Dylan Simmons R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.73 | 17.8% | 9.4% | 1.7% | .295 | 5.04 | 12.7% | 0.6% | 74 | +1.31 | 3.73 | 125 | 89 |
| Reece Karalus R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.74 | 18.5% | 8.6% | 3.8% | .298 | 4.94 | 14.8% | 4.1% | 103 | +0.20 | 4.74 | 149 | 88 |
| Blaze Pontes R 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.66 | 18.2% | 9.4% | 1.7% | .330 | 5.09 | 10.1% | -1.9% | 168 | +1.43 | 3.37 | 230 | 88 |
| Jaycob Deese R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.36 | 17.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .309 | 4.90 | 12.8% | 3.1% | 117 | +0.54 | 3.27 | 185 | 88 |
| Heath Holder R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 88 |
| Will Latcham R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.63 | 20.1% | 9.4% | 1.9% | .262 | 5.28 | 16.0% | 4.7% | 79 | +1.65 | 3.63 | 134 | 88 |
| Andrew Bellatti R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.32 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.71 | 278 | 88 |
| Matthew Gorst R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.75 | 15.8% | 7.0% | 2.0% | .269 | 3.88 | 16.6% | 8.0% | 130 | +0.13 | 3.12 | 199 | 88 |
| Chase Centala R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.34 | 16.1% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .270 | 4.16 | 17.4% | 10.8% | 55 | -0.18 | 4.16 | 124 | 87 |
| Josh Advocate R 2028 · 3.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.58 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.59 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 75 | +0.01 | 3.58 | 118 | 87 |
| Vince Reilly R 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.43 | 17.2% | 7.9% | 1.4% | .265 | 4.33 | 18.8% | 7.0% | 75 | +0.90 | 3.43 | 129 | 87 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 55 | 20.4% | 8.1% | 1.05 | 4.30 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |