Rafael Gonzalez — OGILVIE

Rafael Gonzalez P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 23 RHP 5'11" / 195 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 52 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 152144vR 136

ERA6.26

FIP6.26

K%15.2%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-4.8%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	13	6	43	186	53	23	0	46%	3.3	19.4%	15.5%	3.9%	0.0%	4.81	3.42	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	13	6	43	186	53	23	0	46%	3.3	28.5%	12.4%	16.1%	0.0%	4.81	2.24	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	4	37	163	50	22	2	31%	2.8	21.8%	16.3%	5.5%	1.4%	5.11	4.11	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	4	37	163	50	22	2	31%	2.8	21.8%	16.3%	5.5%	1.4%	5.11	4.11	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	4	37	163	50	22	2	31%	2.8	30.7%	13.5%	17.2%	1.2%	5.11	2.88	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	11	63	279	59	39	4	61%	3.5	16.1%	15.8%	0.3%	1.5%	4.57	4.55	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	11	63	279	59	39	4	61%	3.5	16.1%	15.8%	0.3%	1.5%	4.57	4.55	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	11	63	279	59	39	4	61%	3.5	21.1%	14.0%	7.2%	1.4%	4.57	3.91	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	3	28	146	28	41	1	27%	2.5	14.8%	31.8%	-17.0%	1.1%	9.11	6.50	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	3	28	146	28	41	1	27%	2.5	14.8%	31.8%	-17.0%	1.1%	9.11	6.50	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	3	28	146	28	41	1	27%	2.5	19.2%	28.1%	-8.9%	0.7%	9.11	5.99	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	HOU	50	0	52	220	33	44	6	0%	1.0	15.2%	20.0%	-4.8%	2.8%	6.26	6.26	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	55	0	58	245	41	43	7	0%	1.1	16.9%	17.4%	-0.5%	2.8%	5.89	5.77	-0.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	HOU	56	0	59	248	44	39	7	0%	1.1	17.9%	15.7%	2.2%	2.8%	5.60	5.48	-0.6
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	24	0	25	106	18	18	3	0%	1.0	16.9%	17.4%	-0.5%	2.8%	5.89	5.77	-0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	HOU	37	0	39	165	29	26	5	0%	1.1	17.9%	15.7%	2.2%	2.8%	5.60	5.48	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		61	0	64	269	47	44	7	0%	1.0	17.5%	16.3%	1.2%	2.8%	5.71	5.21	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	147	138	22	0%	1.1	17.5%	16.3%	1.2%	2.8%	5.71	5.21	-1.6
Career	—	MLE		55	24	171	774	138	146	8	44%	3.1	17.8%	18.8%	-1.0%	1.0%	5.48	4.55	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	28	200	907	162	171	10	44%	3.1	17.8%	18.8%	-1.0%	1.0%	5.48	4.55	-2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rafael Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.26	15.2%	20.0%	2.8%	—	5.62	17.4%	0.9%	117	-0.64	—	—	—
Drew Conover R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	23	SW	6.25	15.6%	29.8%	1.3%	.272	5.19	12.6%	-3.4%	106	-1.06	4.49	145	86
Ted Stuka R 2021 · 5.72 FIP	24	SW	5.72	12.4%	23.4%	1.3%	.262	6.22	15.9%	-13.1%	41	+0.50	5.36	105	84
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	14.4%	18.0%	1.8%	.333	5.84	14.7%	1.0%	124	+0.69	4.97	208	83
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	82
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	82
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	81
Pedro Garcia R 2018 · 6.06 FIP	23	SW	6.06	12.6%	24.0%	1.8%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	144	80
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	80
Orlando Gonzalez R 2024 · 6.34 FIP	21	SP-	6.34	13.8%	18.8%	3.7%	.155	4.18	18.9%	4.9%	71	-2.16	3.83	114	80
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	79
Johan Moreno R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	21	SW	6.25	13.2%	16.7%	3.9%	.325	4.36	20.7%	8.0%	115	-1.89	3.09	216	78
Tom Reisinger R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	23	SW	5.44	12.1%	14.6%	2.8%	.381	6.49	10.3%	-5.6%	47	+1.05	5.44	110	78
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	77
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	77
Zach Willeman R 2019 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	10.8%	15.0%	2.7%	.296	4.98	21.3%	7.8%	108	-0.59	4.05	264	77
Jon Keller R 2016 · 5.48 FIP	23	SW	5.48	15.3%	20.9%	1.9%	.265	3.84	8.9%	-2.9%	15	-1.64	3.64	156	77
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	77
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	76
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	76
Hansel Rosario R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SW	5.54	19.2%	22.2%	2.3%	.306	7.16	16.3%	-21.0%	19	+1.62	5.25	107	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	16.7%	17.6%	1.08	5.90
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51