Rafael Gonzalez
P
Fayetteville Woodpeckers
Age 22
RHP
5'11" / 195 lbs
A
peak 0.2 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION20 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149140vR 130
ERA5.79
FIP5.79
K%16.1%
BB%17.0%
K-BB%-0.9%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Astros Orange | 13 | 6 | 43 | 186 | 53 | 23 | 0 | 46% | 3.3 | 19.4% | 15.5% | 3.9% | 0.0% | 4.81 | 3.42 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Astros Orange | 13 | 6 | 43 | 186 | 53 | 23 | 0 | 46% | 3.3 | 28.5% | 12.4% | 16.1% | 0.0% | 4.81 | 2.24 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 4 | 37 | 163 | 50 | 22 | 2 | 31% | 2.8 | 21.8% | 16.3% | 5.5% | 1.3% | 5.11 | 4.04 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 4 | 37 | 163 | 50 | 22 | 2 | 31% | 2.8 | 30.7% | 13.5% | 17.2% | 1.2% | 5.11 | 2.88 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 11 | 63 | 279 | 59 | 39 | 4 | 61% | 3.5 | 16.1% | 15.8% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 4.57 | 4.55 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 11 | 63 | 279 | 59 | 39 | 4 | 61% | 3.5 | 21.1% | 14.0% | 7.2% | 1.4% | 4.57 | 3.91 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 8 | 3 | 20 | 109 | 18 | 30 | 0 | 38% | 2.5 | 12.3% | 30.3% | -17.9% | 0.0% | 11.44 | 5.89 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | HOU | 50 | 0 | 52 | 222 | 36 | 38 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.1% | 17.0% | -0.9% | 2.7% | 5.79 | 5.79 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16.1% | 17.0% | -0.9% | 2.7% | 5.79 | 5.79 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 72 | 331 | 54 | 68 | 6 | — | — | 16.2% | 20.5% | -4.2% | 1.8% | 7.33 | 5.82 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 41 | 35 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 15.1% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 5.49 | 5.39 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 44 | 33 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 13.9% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 5.25 | 5.14 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 54 | 0 | 57 | 239 | 46 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 13.1% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 5.08 | 5.00 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 15.1% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 5.49 | 5.39 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 31 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 13.9% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 5.25 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 38 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 13.1% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 5.08 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 106 | 0 | 112 | 472 | 88 | 65 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 13.8% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 5.24 | 4.76 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 158 | 116 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 13.8% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 5.24 | 4.76 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 52 | 24 | 163 | 737 | 130 | 132 | 6 | 46% | 3.1 | 17.6% | 18.0% | -0.3% | 0.8% | 5.59 | 4.35 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 30 | 200 | 906 | 160 | 163 | 8 | 46% | 3.1 | 17.6% | 18.0% | -0.3% | 0.8% | 5.59 | 4.35 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Rafael Gonzalez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.79 | 16.1% | 17.0% | 2.7% | — | 5.17 | 18.6% | 4.6% | 167 | -0.62 | — | — | — |
| Wills Montgomerie R 2027 · 5.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.03 | 19.3% | 19.1% | 2.1% | .275 | 4.55 | 20.1% | 6.0% | 105 | -0.48 | 4.55 | 153 | 86 |
| Drew Conover R 2027 · 6.30 FIP | 23 | SW | 6.30 | 15.6% | 29.8% | 1.4% | .272 | 5.34 | 11.7% | -3.6% | 96 | -0.96 | 4.52 | 135 | 85 |
| Griffin Kilander R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.83 | 15.5% | 16.2% | 1.8% | .264 | 4.24 | 23.3% | 6.3% | 50 | -0.59 | 4.24 | 115 | 85 |
| Jacob Cravey R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.20 | 14.4% | 18.0% | 1.9% | .333 | 5.70 | 14.6% | 0.7% | 120 | +0.50 | 5.13 | 204 | 84 |
| Blane Abeyta R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.66 | 21.1% | 18.2% | 1.9% | .283 | 4.73 | 15.6% | 6.4% | 343 | +0.07 | 4.34 | 471 | 84 |
| Alberto Tirado R 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.62 | 14.7% | 18.5% | 2.6% | .294 | 3.82 | 16.5% | -0.2% | 33 | -1.80 | 3.82 | 247 | 84 |
| Justin Ferrell R 2026 · 5.48 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.48 | 14.9% | 14.0% | 3.4% | .261 | 4.31 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 173 | -1.17 | 3.80 | 300 | 82 |
| James McArthur R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.37 | 18.8% | 15.5% | 3.5% | .304 | 4.20 | 20.0% | 10.7% | 131 | -1.17 | 3.53 | 352 | 82 |
| Garrett Nuss R 2026 · 5.91 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.91 | 14.1% | 14.9% | 3.8% | .352 | 4.67 | 15.0% | 5.3% | 92 | -1.24 | 4.56 | 174 | 82 |
| Ramsey David R 2028 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.23 | 18.6% | 17.4% | 2.7% | .219 | 7.27 | 19.1% | -0.7% | 30 | +2.04 | 5.23 | 107 | 82 |
| Josh Gessner R 2026 · 5.68 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.68 | 17.0% | 15.0% | 3.9% | .299 | 5.31 | 12.0% | -10.1% | 34 | -0.37 | 2.98 | 126 | 81 |
| Ike Buxton R 2027 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 2.4% | .241 | 4.68 | 14.8% | -0.6% | 123 | -0.25 | 4.52 | 196 | 81 |
| Zach Linginfelter R 2028 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.72 | 19.1% | 16.0% | 4.0% | .295 | 4.94 | 18.8% | -0.6% | 46 | -0.78 | 3.58 | 109 | 81 |
| Kevin Valdez R 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.91 | 16.6% | 17.9% | 1.7% | .188 | 4.72 | 15.5% | 1.6% | 150 | -0.19 | 3.46 | 223 | 80 |
| Dawson Netz R 2028 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 80 |
| Miguel Medrano R 2027 · 5.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.56 | 17.7% | 15.5% | 3.6% | .299 | 6.01 | 18.1% | -0.5% | 50 | +0.45 | 2.73 | 232 | 80 |
| Alex Vallecillo R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.6% | 16.3% | 2.0% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.47 | 152 | 80 |
| Wilian Bormie R 2026 · 5.64 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.64 | 21.6% | 20.4% | 3.2% | .275 | 4.00 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 184 | -1.64 | 3.21 | 207 | 80 |
| Pedro Garcia R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.10 | 16.1% | 16.8% | 2.2% | .329 | 6.34 | 11.8% | -3.6% | 79 | +1.24 | 4.85 | 226 | 79 |
| Ryan Cardona R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.30 | 20.9% | 17.7% | 3.1% | .274 | 4.20 | 18.5% | 4.3% | 292 | -1.10 | 3.46 | 367 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 55 | 18.0% | 14.7% | 1.06 | 5.39 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |