Adrian Aray

P DSL Pirates Gold

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 175 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	17	ROKDSL Pirates G…	12	4	29	3.07	3.03	22.4%	14.4%	—	K 15.2% · BB 18.0% · FIP 4.09
2025	18	ROKDSL Pirates G…	12	8	39	3.43	3.33	21.3%	13.4%	—	K 14.5% · BB 16.8% · FIP 4.40
2027PROJ	20	MLB—	4	4	22	5.17	5.17	20.8%	14.5%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLB—	3	3	18	4.95	4.87	21.5%	12.8%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsKobe Robinson (age 21) · Juan Mendez (age 22) · Jhoster Baez (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.17

FIP5.17

K%20.8%

BB%14.5%

K-BB%6.3%

Proj IP22

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	12	4	29	125	28	18	0	33%	2.4	15.2%	18.0%	-2.8%	0.0%	3.07	4.09	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	12	4	29	125	28	18	0	33%	2.4	15.2%	18.0%	-2.8%	0.0%	3.07	4.09	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Gold	12	4	29	125	28	18	0	33%	2.4	22.4%	14.4%	8.0%	0.0%	3.07	3.03	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	12	8	39	164	35	22	1	67%	3.3	14.5%	16.8%	-2.3%	0.7%	3.43	4.40	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	12	8	39	164	35	22	1	67%	3.3	14.5%	16.8%	-2.3%	0.7%	3.43	4.40	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Gold	12	8	39	164	35	22	1	67%	3.3	21.3%	13.4%	7.9%	0.6%	3.43	3.33	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	—	4	4	22	93	19	14	3	100%	5.5	20.8%	14.5%	6.3%	2.9%	5.17	5.17	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	—	7	7	37	157	34	20	5	100%	5.3	21.5%	12.8%	8.7%	2.9%	4.95	4.87	+0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	—	3	3	18	76	16	10	2	100%	6.0	21.5%	12.8%	8.7%	2.9%	4.95	4.87	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	18	77	17	10	2	100%	6.1	21.5%	12.8%	8.7%	2.9%	4.95	4.49	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	186	109	22	100%	5.7	21.5%	12.8%	8.7%	2.9%	4.95	4.49	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		24	12	69	289	43	50	1	50%	2.9	14.8%	17.3%	-2.5%	0.4%	3.28	4.26	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	35	200	842	125	146	3	50%	2.9	14.8%	17.3%	-2.5%	0.4%	3.28	4.26	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adrian Aray (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.17	20.8%	14.5%	2.9%	—	4.87	21.5%	8.7%	37	-0.30	—	—	—
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	89
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	86
Jhoster Baez R 2024 · 4.57 FIP	19	SP-	4.57	17.3%	14.8%	1.9%	.283	5.93	15.9%	-5.0%	73	+1.36	4.57	110	85
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	84
Felix Arronde R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	344	+0.56	4.16	442	84
Jeisson Cabrera R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	20	SP-	4.42	21.3%	15.5%	2.1%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	244	82
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	82
Alfred Vega R 2021 · 4.56 FIP	20	SP-	4.56	20.5%	16.0%	2.1%	.203	4.66	13.4%	0.6%	81	+0.10	2.07	234	82
Rodolfo Sanchez R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	23.0%	13.6%	3.3%	.264	4.83	19.9%	6.3%	104	+0.12	3.59	255	81
Jonawel Valdez R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	20	SP-	4.13	17.5%	13.8%	1.4%	.309	5.20	12.5%	0.2%	81	+1.07	4.04	141	81
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	81
Jaydenn Estanista R 2022 · 5.61 FIP	20	SW	5.61	20.2%	16.9%	3.8%	.172	5.14	20.6%	2.4%	123	-0.47	4.59	230	80
Rafael Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.11 FIP	20	SW	4.11	21.8%	16.3%	1.4%	.303	5.08	15.7%	-4.4%	82	+0.97	3.42	162	80
Joseph Hernandez R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	21	SW	4.39	24.7%	16.7%	2.3%	.348	4.92	18.1%	4.0%	190	+0.53	4.39	260	80
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.71	17.6%	1.2%	150	+0.03	4.54	203	80
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	80
Yeury Tatiz R 2021 · 5.54 FIP	20	SP-	5.54	17.4%	15.6%	3.5%	.295	5.10	13.0%	-1.0%	100	-0.44	3.73	221	80
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	80
Engel Daniel Peralta R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	20	SW	5.28	17.7%	15.0%	3.2%	.300	5.89	16.6%	1.2%	33	+0.61	3.34	129	80
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	21.3%	13.5%	1.12	5.03
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76