Alejandro Vera prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Alejandro Vera P DSL Nationals

Age 20 LHP 6'1" / 192 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 15 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140148vR 156

ERA6.49

FIP6.49

K%20.7%

BB%24.8%

K-BB%-4.0%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	11	8	25	137	22	39	1	73%	2.3	10.9%	35.6%	-24.7%	0.8%	8.88	7.15	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	11	8	25	137	22	39	1	73%	2.3	10.9%	35.6%	-24.7%	0.8%	8.88	7.15	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	11	8	25	137	22	39	1	73%	2.3	16.1%	28.5%	-12.4%	0.7%	8.88	6.49	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	20	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.7%	24.8%	-4.0%	3.0%	6.49	6.49	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	WSH	4	4	24	101	22	21	3	100%	6.0	21.4%	20.4%	1.0%	2.9%	6.02	5.85	-0.3
2027	21	MLB CTX	WSH	2	2	12	51	11	10	1	100%	6.0	21.4%	20.4%	1.0%	2.9%	6.02	5.85	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	12	50	11	10	1	100%	5.9	21.4%	20.4%	1.0%	2.9%	6.02	5.47	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	41	200	844	187	170	17	100%	4.8	21.4%	20.4%	1.0%	2.9%	6.02	5.47	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		11	8	25	137	15	49	1	73%	2.3	10.9%	35.6%	-24.7%	0.8%	8.88	7.15	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		87	63	200	1082	118	385	9	73%	2.3	10.9%	35.6%	-24.7%	0.8%	8.88	7.15	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alejandro Vera (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.49	20.7%	24.8%	3.0%	—	5.85	21.4%	1.0%	24	-0.64	—	—	—
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	78
Miguel Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.58 FIP	20	SP-	5.58	14.3%	21.8%	1.7%	.240	4.24	14.9%	-4.1%	64	-1.34	3.91	103	77
Spencer Giesting L 2022 · 5.80 FIP	21	SP-	5.80	20.8%	16.6%	4.3%	.290	4.30	19.0%	8.0%	394	-1.50	3.58	460	77
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	77
Adam Laskey L 2021 · 6.39 FIP	23	SP-	6.39	16.0%	21.0%	3.6%	.383	3.25	20.1%	10.5%	188	-3.14	3.12	310	75
Mavis Graves L 2023 · 6.17 FIP	19	SP	6.17	18.8%	22.2%	3.3%	.365	4.16	23.9%	10.0%	243	-2.01	3.10	277	75
Derek Corro L 2023 · 6.42 FIP	18	SP-	6.42	14.4%	26.5%	2.1%	.432	5.20	15.9%	-3.8%	67	-1.22	4.54	128	72
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.28	17.9%	4.2%	149	-0.59	4.79	194	72
Jacob Heatherly L 2018 · 6.27 FIP	20	SP	6.27	18.1%	27.2%	2.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	192	72
Levi Prater L 2021 · 7.22 FIP	22	SP-	7.22	23.1%	24.1%	5.5%	.338	6.76	15.8%	-7.7%	42	-0.46	6.76	110	70
Ryan Anderson L 2021 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP-	5.71	14.7%	26.1%	1.0%	.373	3.73	20.3%	11.0%	149	-1.98	2.80	214	69
Lewis Sifontes L 2023 · 7.37 FIP	17	SP-	7.37	12.5%	20.2%	5.0%	.329	5.80	15.9%	-1.6%	95	-1.57	4.81	123	69
McKenzie Mills L 2015 · 7.06 FIP	19	SP-	7.06	9.8%	21.4%	3.8%	.288	4.17	18.2%	11.0%	227	-2.89	4.12	334	68
Juan Rojas L 2023 · 5.60 FIP	19	SP-	5.60	13.5%	14.4%	3.3%	.286	4.28	16.9%	2.0%	178	-1.32	2.74	282	68
Jared Tobey L 2018 · 5.39 FIP	22	SP	5.39	11.9%	15.1%	2.5%	.289	4.05	22.3%	10.4%	97	-1.34	3.99	158	67
Adam Shoemaker L 2023 · 6.29 FIP	20	SP-	6.29	15.5%	19.2%	3.8%	.304	5.00	19.6%	-2.9%	144	-1.29	4.41	246	67
José Alvarado L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	20	SP	5.31	15.1%	20.1%	1.7%	.347	3.00	25.3%	11.6%	183	-2.31	1.57	524	66
Wander Cabrera L 2018 · 6.97 FIP	20	SP-	6.97	11.9%	16.7%	5.0%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	135	66
Liam Norris L 2022 · 6.64 FIP	20	SP	6.64	19.5%	22.6%	4.2%	.296	5.53	27.7%	4.1%	80	-1.11	3.98	184	66
Lucas Gilbreath L 2017 · 5.60 FIP	21	SP	5.60	11.5%	17.8%	2.2%	.281	4.37	16.9%	7.4%	260	-1.23	3.17	431	66