Adam Shoemaker — OGILVIE

Adam Shoemaker P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 23 LHP 6'6" / 205 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 27 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125133vR 142

ERA5.71

FIP5.71

K%19.8%

BB%19.0%

K-BB%0.8%

ROS IP28

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	3	2	5	26	6	7	0	67%	1.8	23.1%	26.9%	-3.8%	0.0%	6.75	4.56	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	3	2	5	26	6	7	0	67%	1.8	23.1%	26.9%	-3.8%	0.0%	6.75	4.79	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	11	38	175	37	24	1	85%	2.9	13.9%	16.2%	-2.3%	0.9%	6.87	4.46	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	11	38	175	37	24	1	85%	2.9	21.1%	13.7%	7.4%	0.6%	6.87	3.39	—
2023	20	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	22	14	68	319	67	52	9	64%	3.1	15.5%	19.2%	-3.7%	3.8%	6.06	6.29	—
2023	20	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	22	14	68	319	67	52	9	64%	3.1	15.5%	19.2%	-3.7%	3.8%	6.06	6.29	—
2023	20	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	22	14	68	319	67	52	9	64%	3.1	21.0%	16.3%	4.7%	2.8%	6.06	5.13	—
2024	21	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	24	3	70	331	91	61	3	12%	2.9	20.3%	21.7%	-1.4%	1.2%	6.20	4.78	—
2024	21	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	24	3	70	331	91	61	3	12%	2.9	20.3%	21.7%	-1.4%	1.2%	6.20	4.78	—
2024	21	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	24	3	70	331	91	61	3	12%	2.9	27.5%	18.4%	9.1%	0.9%	6.20	3.67	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	38	177	44	31	1	0%	1.6	17.6%	19.0%	-1.4%	0.7%	5.02	4.41	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	38	177	44	31	1	0%	1.6	17.6%	19.0%	-1.4%	0.7%	5.02	4.41	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	38	177	44	31	1	0%	1.6	24.9%	17.5%	7.3%	0.6%	5.02	3.58	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	14	9	48	226	57	53	3	64%	3.4	19.9%	26.4%	-6.5%	1.8%	3.97	5.77	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	14	9	48	226	57	53	3	64%	3.4	19.9%	26.4%	-6.5%	1.8%	3.97	5.77	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	HOU	8	3	26	116	36	22	1	38%	3.2	31.0%	19.0%	12.1%	0.9%	2.08	3.35	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	HOU	5	5	18	91	19	25	2	100%	3.5	20.9%	27.5%	-6.6%	2.2%	7.64	6.02	—
2026	23	AA RAW	HOU	1	1	4	19	2	6	0	100%	4.0	10.5%	31.6%	-21.1%	0.0%	0.00	6.21	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	HOU	61	0	64	271	57	44	7	0%	1.1	20.9%	16.1%	4.8%	2.7%	5.38	5.25	-0.5
2028	25	MLB MLE	HOU	62	0	65	275	59	39	7	0%	1.0	21.4%	14.2%	7.3%	2.7%	5.10	4.96	-0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	HOU	62	0	65	275	60	38	8	0%	1.0	21.7%	13.9%	7.9%	2.7%	4.97	4.91	-0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	HOU	61	0	64	271	59	37	8	0%	1.1	21.8%	13.8%	7.9%	2.8%	4.94	4.93	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	HOU	26	0	27	114	24	18	3	0%	1.0	20.9%	16.1%	4.8%	2.7%	5.38	5.25	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	HOU	41	0	43	182	39	26	5	0%	1.0	21.4%	14.2%	7.3%	2.7%	5.10	4.96	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	HOU	50	0	52	220	48	30	6	0%	1.0	21.7%	13.9%	7.9%	2.7%	4.97	4.91	-0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	HOU	52	0	55	232	51	32	6	0%	1.1	21.8%	13.8%	7.9%	2.8%	4.94	4.93	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		168	0	177	747	161	107	21	0%	1.1	21.5%	14.3%	7.3%	2.7%	5.06	4.60	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	182	121	24	0%	1.1	21.5%	14.3%	7.3%	2.7%	5.06	4.60	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		99	39	267	1254	223	262	23	39%	2.7	17.8%	20.9%	-3.1%	1.8%	5.70	5.24	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	29	200	941	168	196	17	39%	2.7	17.8%	20.9%	-3.1%	1.8%	5.70	5.24	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adam Shoemaker (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.71	19.8%	19.0%	2.7%	—	5.04	21.3%	6.6%	194	-0.67	—	—	—
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.32	17.8%	4.0%	148	-0.55	4.79	193	84
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	83
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	77
Max Roberts L 2021 · 4.85 FIP	24	SW	4.85	19.3%	15.2%	2.6%	.330	4.62	24.5%	8.4%	115	-0.23	4.27	173	77
Adam Laskey L 2021 · 6.39 FIP	23	SP-	6.39	16.0%	21.0%	3.6%	.383	3.25	20.1%	10.5%	188	-3.14	3.12	310	76
Evan Shawver L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	15.9%	16.5%	3.5%	.327	4.11	18.1%	7.1%	162	-1.67	3.92	278	74
Julian Smith L 2019 · 4.79 FIP	22	SW	4.79	14.5%	17.4%	1.3%	.399	5.33	17.9%	5.8%	110	+0.54	2.87	189	74
Tyler Matzek L 2015 · 5.49 FIP	24	SW	5.49	17.7%	23.2%	1.7%	.256	4.73	22.2%	0.9%	21	-0.76	1.60	190	73
Garrett Williams L 2018 · 5.04 FIP	23	SW	5.04	14.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.335	4.33	19.3%	4.5%	162	-0.71	3.37	470	73
Nathan Kirby L 2018 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	17.7%	16.2%	2.7%	.318	3.84	25.3%	8.7%	38	-1.28	3.84	145	72
Bryan Warzek L 2019 · 5.92 FIP	22	SW	5.92	17.7%	24.4%	2.2%	.328	6.74	20.2%	1.9%	73	+0.82	1.91	138	71
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	71
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	71
Gabe Morales L 2022 · 5.30 FIP	23	SW	5.30	23.2%	22.1%	2.5%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	268	70
Develson Aria L 2023 · 6.47 FIP	22	SW	6.47	16.7%	28.6%	2.1%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	137	70
Estevan Gonzalez L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	23	SW	4.77	14.1%	10.7%	2.8%	.322	4.86	14.7%	0.1%	130	+0.09	4.58	195	69
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2023 · 6.79 FIP	23	SU	6.79	19.3%	26.9%	3.5%	.307	2.58	30.1%	16.3%	62	-4.21	2.58	155	69
Jake Miller L 2023 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	17.2%	14.1%	3.8%	.345	3.04	22.5%	16.3%	99	-2.46	3.00	143	68
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	68
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.15	23.9%	5.2%	99	-2.27	3.91	148	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	57	21.3%	14.9%	1.06	5.16
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22