Adam Shoemaker
P
Augusta GreenJackets
+0.1
WAR
Age 23
LHP
6'6" / 205 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.3 · 2028
ERA4.77
FIP4.77
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.8%
BB%13.0%
K-BB%8.8%
IP39
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2028
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Braves | 3 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 6 | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | 6.75 | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 13 | 11 | 38 | 175 | 37 | 24 | 1 | 13.9% | 16.2% | 0.8% | 6.87 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 22 | 14 | 68 | 319 | 67 | 52 | 9 | 15.5% | 19.2% | 3.7% | 6.06 | 6.28 | -1.0 |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 24 | 3 | 70 | 331 | 91 | 61 | 3 | 20.3% | 21.7% | 1.2% | 6.20 | 4.77 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Rome Emperors | 23 | 0 | 38 | 177 | 44 | 31 | 1 | 17.6% | 19.0% | 0.7% | 5.02 | 4.40 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | ATL | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 36 | 22 | 5 | 21.8% | 13.0% | 2.7% | 4.77 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ATL | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 38 | 20 | 5 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 2.7% | 4.62 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 40 | 19 | 5 | 23.0% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 4.48 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 40 | 18 | 5 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 4.42 | 4.37 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 41 | — | 41 | 171 | 40 | 18 | 5 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 4.38 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 39 | 18 | 5 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 38 | 18 | 5 | 23.0% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 37 | 17 | 5 | 22.8% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 35 | 17 | 5 | 22.6% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.59 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 33 | 17 | 5 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 34 | — | 34 | 141 | 31 | 16 | 4 | 22.0% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.72 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 29 | 15 | 4 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 4.82 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | ATL | 30 | — | 30 | 127 | 27 | 15 | 4 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 3.3% | 4.93 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 85 | 30 | 219 | 1028 | 178 | 202 | 18 | 17.3% | 19.7% | 1.8% | 6.08 | 5.11 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 78 | 27 | 200 | 939 | 163 | 184 | 16 | 17.3% | 19.7% | 1.8% | 6.08 | 5.11 | +0.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adam Shoemaker (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.77 | 21.8% | 13.0% | 2.7% | — | 4.44 | 22.9% | 11.9% | 122 | -0.33 | — | — | — |
| Seth Clark L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.22 | 22.5% | 15.0% | 2.0% | .287 | 5.22 | 18.4% | 0.6% | 82 | +1.00 | 4.22 | 128 | 91 |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.59 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.2% | .364 | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 55 | -0.58 | 4.01 | 101 | 89 |
| Andrew Tomasovich L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.96 | 21.1% | 13.5% | 1.7% | .333 | 4.02 | 20.3% | 6.9% | 52 | +0.06 | 3.87 | 126 | 89 |
| Fred Schlichtholz L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.29 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 2.7% | .368 | 4.12 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 80 | -0.17 | 3.52 | 175 | 88 |
| Jared Tobey L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.97 | 21.0% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .320 | 5.44 | 22.4% | 8.2% | 73 | +1.47 | 3.97 | 158 | 88 |
| Brian Marconi L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.91 | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .265 | 5.03 | 20.3% | 2.1% | 57 | +1.12 | 3.91 | 101 | 87 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2028 · 5.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.18 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 3.8% | .269 | 4.08 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 103 | -1.10 | 3.46 | 145 | 87 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.87 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 3.1% | .305 | 3.85 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 87 | -1.02 | 3.49 | 165 | 87 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 161 | 86 |
| Lucas Knowles L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.87 | 20.5% | 12.9% | 1.6% | .366 | 4.21 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 177 | +0.34 | 3.37 | 208 | 86 |
| Trevor Seidenberger L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.67 | 18.1% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .248 | 6.31 | 13.1% | -1.8% | 52 | +1.64 | 4.67 | 101 | 85 |
| Andrew Walling L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.20 | 23.7% | 14.8% | 2.2% | .272 | 3.66 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 95 | -0.54 | 3.14 | 151 | 85 |
| Hogan Harris L 2025 · 3.82 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.82 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .235 | 3.70 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 74 | -0.12 | 3.15 | 442 | 85 |
| Robert Garcia L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.39 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 3.4% | .342 | 4.38 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 106 | -0.01 | 2.09 | 452 | 84 |
| Joe Kemlage L 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.41 | 19.4% | 13.5% | 2.2% | .278 | 5.32 | 17.6% | 5.9% | 65 | +0.91 | 4.41 | 128 | 84 |
| Brandon Neeck L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.19 | 21.0% | 13.9% | 2.0% | .419 | 4.91 | 19.4% | 5.9% | 107 | +0.72 | 3.79 | 133 | 83 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.96 | 19.7% | 12.7% | 3.5% | .300 | 4.72 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 152 | -0.24 | 3.96 | 265 | 83 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.10 | 4.04 | 158 | 83 |
| Will Mabrey L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.29 | 19.2% | 12.2% | 2.3% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 112 | 83 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .268 | 3.50 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.76 | 1.84 | 238 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.1M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $4M | $5M | +$1M | ||