Adam Shoemaker
P
Fayetteville Woodpeckers
Age 23
LHP
6'6" / 205 lbs
A
2026 ROS PROJECTION20 act + 28 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109118vR 127
ERA4.77
FIP4.77
K%21.8%
BB%13.0%
K-BB%8.8%
ROS IP28
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Braves | 3 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 67% | 1.8 | 23.1% | 26.9% | -3.8% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 4.56 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Braves | 3 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 67% | 1.8 | 23.1% | 26.9% | -3.8% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 4.79 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 11 | 38 | 175 | 37 | 24 | 1 | 85% | 2.9 | 13.9% | 16.2% | -2.3% | 0.8% | 6.87 | 4.44 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 11 | 38 | 175 | 37 | 24 | 1 | 85% | 2.9 | 21.1% | 13.7% | 7.4% | 0.6% | 6.87 | 3.39 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 22 | 14 | 68 | 319 | 67 | 52 | 9 | 64% | 3.1 | 15.5% | 19.2% | -3.7% | 3.9% | 6.06 | 6.34 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 22 | 14 | 68 | 319 | 67 | 52 | 9 | 64% | 3.1 | 21.0% | 16.3% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 6.06 | 5.13 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 24 | 3 | 70 | 331 | 91 | 61 | 3 | 12% | 2.9 | 20.3% | 21.7% | -1.4% | 1.2% | 6.20 | 4.77 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 24 | 3 | 70 | 331 | 91 | 61 | 3 | 12% | 2.9 | 27.5% | 18.4% | 9.1% | 0.9% | 6.20 | 3.67 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 0 | 38 | 177 | 44 | 31 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 17.6% | 19.0% | -1.4% | 0.6% | 5.02 | 4.34 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 0 | 38 | 177 | 44 | 31 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 24.9% | 17.5% | 7.3% | 0.6% | 5.02 | 3.58 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 6 | 3 | 20 | 88 | 29 | 15 | 1 | 50% | 3.3 | 24.4% | 20.1% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 2.70 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | HOU | 4 | 4 | 28 | 117 | 25 | 15 | 3 | 100% | 6.9 | 21.8% | 13.0% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.77 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.8% | 13.0% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.77 | 4.77 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 48 | 205 | 54 | 30 | 4 | — | — | 26.6% | 14.7% | 11.9% | 2.0% | 3.90 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 27 | 0 | 28 | 119 | 27 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 2.7% | 4.61 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 2.7% | 4.61 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 2.7% | 4.61 | 4.16 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 198 | 99 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 2.7% | 4.61 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 91 | 33 | 239 | 1116 | 200 | 220 | 20 | 36% | 2.6 | 17.9% | 19.7% | -1.8% | 1.8% | 5.80 | 5.06 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 76 | 28 | 200 | 934 | 167 | 184 | 17 | 36% | 2.6 | 17.9% | 19.7% | -1.8% | 1.8% | 5.80 | 5.06 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adam Shoemaker (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.77 | 21.8% | 13.0% | 2.7% | — | 4.54 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 28 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Lucas Knowles L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.79 | 20.5% | 12.9% | 1.4% | .366 | 4.10 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 177 | +0.31 | 3.37 | 275 | 83 |
| Dante Biasi L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.88 | 21.5% | 12.6% | 3.6% | .251 | 6.01 | 19.3% | 2.3% | 153 | +1.13 | 4.88 | 224 | 82 |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.62 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.3% | .364 | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 55 | -0.65 | 3.97 | 101 | 81 |
| Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.64 | 22.0% | 14.9% | 2.8% | .289 | 2.98 | 26.6% | 12.9% | 99 | -1.66 | 2.15 | 175 | 81 |
| Josh Simpson L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.43 | 23.5% | 11.5% | 3.4% | .290 | 3.28 | 33.4% | 19.3% | 102 | -1.15 | 3.07 | 247 | 80 |
| Max Roberts L 2027 · 5.07 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.07 | 19.3% | 15.2% | 3.0% | .330 | 4.59 | 24.5% | 8.4% | 115 | -0.48 | 4.03 | 173 | 78 |
| Hayden Frank L 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.29 | 17.2% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.29 | 109 | 77 |
| Matt Walker L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.27 | 16.7% | 13.3% | 1.6% | .324 | 4.69 | 15.5% | 4.0% | 94 | +0.42 | 4.27 | 156 | 77 |
| Harry Gustin L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.77 | 23.0% | 11.4% | 2.1% | .271 | 5.25 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 39 | +1.48 | 3.77 | 132 | 76 |
| Connor Oliver L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.29 | 17.3% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .314 | 5.52 | 19.2% | 3.4% | 121 | +1.23 | 4.29 | 200 | 76 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.66 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.6% | .263 | 4.29 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.37 | 2.34 | 338 | 76 |
| Andre Wheeler L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.77 | 16.8% | 11.5% | 1.1% | .321 | 5.13 | 16.5% | 4.4% | 87 | +1.36 | 3.77 | 150 | 75 |
| Braeden Fausnaught L 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.77 | 16.9% | 16.4% | 1.8% | .287 | 4.67 | 17.9% | 9.7% | 179 | -0.10 | 4.57 | 242 | 75 |
| Jordan Woods L 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.74 | 24.2% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 143 | 75 |
| Tommy Vail L 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.91 | 27.5% | 15.3% | 2.2% | .237 | 5.18 | 19.7% | 3.3% | 81 | +1.27 | 3.91 | 151 | 75 |
| Matt Minnick L 2026 · 5.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.59 | 17.2% | 14.1% | 3.9% | .302 | 4.65 | 23.5% | 12.1% | 105 | -0.94 | 3.77 | 147 | 74 |
| Joe Kemlage L 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.35 | 19.4% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .278 | 5.53 | 17.6% | 5.9% | 65 | +1.18 | 4.35 | 128 | 74 |
| Shane McCain L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.19 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 2.8% | .324 | 4.51 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 125 | +0.32 | 4.19 | 201 | 74 |
| Jeffrey Springs L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.13 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .265 | 3.59 | 25.7% | 16.0% | 233 | -0.54 | 1.39 | 861 | 73 |
| Adrian Gusman L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.57 | 16.5% | 6.6% | 1.9% | .280 | 3.65 | 15.0% | 7.2% | 63 | +0.08 | 2.91 | 141 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 28 | 22.2% | 12.3% | 1.05 | 4.69 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |