Estarlin Francisco
P
DSL Miami
Age 19
RHP
6'3" / 155 lbs
ROK
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 12 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104
ERA4.55
FIP4.55
K%22.2%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%11.6%
ROS IP12
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 12 | 12 | 40 | 180 | 28 | 26 | 1 | 100% | 3.3 | 10.6% | 18.1% | -7.5% | 0.9% | 3.83 | 4.98 | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 12 | 12 | 40 | 180 | 28 | 26 | 1 | 100% | 3.3 | 15.6% | 14.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 3.83 | 3.98 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Miami | 7 | 0 | 11 | 56 | 8 | 15 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 9.7% | 33.5% | -23.8% | 1.4% | 8.44 | 7.26 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Miami | 7 | 0 | 11 | 56 | 8 | 15 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 14.3% | 26.8% | -12.5% | 1.8% | 8.44 | 7.04 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 0 | 12 | 52 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.55 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | MIA | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | MIA | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.01 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 183 | 81 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.01 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 19 | 12 | 51 | 236 | 24 | 51 | 2 | 63% | 2.7 | 10.4% | 21.7% | -11.3% | 1.0% | 4.80 | 5.52 | -0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 75 | 47 | 200 | 932 | 97 | 202 | 9 | 63% | 2.7 | 10.4% | 21.7% | -11.3% | 1.0% | 4.80 | 5.52 | -0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Estarlin Francisco (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.55 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.39 | 22.7% | 12.8% | 20 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Luis Victorino R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.27 | 18.9% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .301 | 4.95 | 15.9% | -5.0% | 84 | +0.68 | 4.27 | 148 | 82 |
| Jerming Rosario R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.83 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 4.0% | .303 | 4.38 | 20.9% | 5.7% | 281 | -0.45 | 3.05 | 483 | 82 |
| Deretd Parra R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.29 | 16.8% | 10.9% | 4.1% | .295 | 3.80 | 15.7% | 2.3% | 83 | -1.49 | 2.79 | 161 | 81 |
| Carson Rudd R 2029 · 3.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.43 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .351 | 5.24 | 21.6% | 5.6% | 193 | +1.81 | 3.43 | 242 | 81 |
| Luis Aguilar R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.54 | 17.6% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .356 | 4.26 | 16.7% | 6.7% | 111 | -0.28 | 3.52 | 146 | 81 |
| Alimber Santa R 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 18 | SW | 4.85 | 17.0% | 11.4% | 3.2% | .304 | 5.11 | 20.9% | 1.8% | 125 | +0.26 | 3.22 | 255 | 81 |
| Jose Morban R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.42 | 18.7% | 11.2% | 2.7% | .333 | 3.98 | 16.9% | 5.8% | 61 | -0.44 | 3.98 | 178 | 80 |
| Eccel Correa R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.35 | 19.4% | 11.9% | 2.5% | .316 | 4.40 | 14.2% | 2.3% | 151 | +0.05 | 3.96 | 186 | 80 |
| Kobe Robinson R 2028 · 4.60 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.3% | 3.0% | .296 | 3.45 | 18.8% | 4.9% | 84 | -1.15 | 2.98 | 107 | 80 |
| Fraynel Nova R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.00 | 16.4% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .296 | 4.17 | 14.9% | 4.9% | 110 | +0.17 | 3.49 | 129 | 79 |
| Edwin Jimenez R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.12 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .330 | 4.67 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 277 | +0.55 | 4.12 | 386 | 79 |
| Juan Mendez R 2029 · 4.47 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.47 | 20.5% | 14.2% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.06 | 21.9% | 6.1% | 128 | +0.59 | 3.55 | 156 | 78 |
| Dawil Almonte R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.60 | 17.4% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .271 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 3.3% | 97 | +0.84 | 3.60 | 138 | 77 |
| Domingo Pena R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.99 | 20.4% | 8.3% | 4.7% | .250 | 5.87 | 11.9% | 2.8% | 43 | +0.88 | 3.34 | 165 | 77 |
| Michael Dominguez R 2025 · 3.82 FIP | 18 | SW | 3.82 | 20.8% | 13.2% | 1.5% | .218 | 4.83 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 110 | +1.01 | 3.82 | 383 | 77 |
| Jose Vasquez R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.20 | 21.9% | 13.4% | 2.3% | .359 | 6.76 | 14.4% | -12.1% | 45 | +2.56 | 4.20 | 102 | 77 |
| Adolfo Oviedo R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.98 | 17.2% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .272 | 4.74 | 13.4% | 8.0% | 90 | +0.76 | 3.79 | 201 | 77 |
| Simon Mathews R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.09 | 17.7% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .326 | 4.51 | 16.0% | 5.9% | 167 | +0.42 | 4.09 | 215 | 76 |
| Alexander Cornielle R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.08 | 24.1% | 14.2% | 2.2% | .329 | 4.34 | 19.2% | 7.6% | 312 | +0.26 | 3.85 | 502 | 76 |
| Ricardo Brizuela R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.86 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 1.8% | .375 | 4.52 | 16.0% | 7.1% | 208 | +0.66 | 3.35 | 246 | 76 |