Alistair Tanner

P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 20 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKDET	12	9	40	6.35	4.94	17.2%	10.6%	—	K 11.7% · BB 13.2% · FIP 6.69
2026	19	ADET	10	4	26	6.58	3.98	23.3%	14.7%	—	K 17.2% · BB 17.3% · FIP 5.07
2027PROJ	20	MLBDET	3	3	18	5.34	5.34	19.1%	14.3%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBDET	3	3	18	5.09	5.00	20.2%	12.7%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 91%

CompsJhoster Baez (age 19) · Kobe Robinson (age 21) · Reibyn Corona (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135126vR 118

ERA5.34

FIP5.34

K%19.1%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%4.7%

Proj IP18

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	12	9	40	180	31	19	6	75%	3.3	11.7%	13.2%	-1.5%	5.3%	6.35	6.69	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	12	9	40	180	31	19	6	75%	3.3	11.7%	13.2%	-1.5%	5.3%	6.35	6.69	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	12	9	40	180	31	19	6	75%	3.3	17.2%	10.6%	6.7%	3.3%	6.35	4.94	—
2026	19	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	10	4	26	116	27	17	2	40%	2.6	17.2%	17.3%	-0.1%	2.2%	6.58	5.07	—
2026	19	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	10	4	26	116	27	17	2	40%	2.6	17.2%	17.3%	-0.1%	2.2%	6.58	5.07	—
2026	19	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	10	4	26	116	27	17	2	40%	2.6	23.3%	14.7%	8.6%	1.7%	6.58	3.98	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	DET	3	3	18	76	14	11	2	100%	6.0	19.1%	14.3%	4.7%	3.0%	5.34	5.34	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	DET	7	7	38	158	32	20	5	100%	5.4	20.2%	12.7%	7.5%	2.9%	5.09	5.00	-0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	DET	3	3	18	76	15	10	2	100%	6.0	20.2%	12.7%	7.5%	2.9%	5.09	5.00	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	18	78	16	10	2	100%	6.1	20.2%	12.7%	7.5%	2.9%	5.09	4.62	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	38	200	844	174	108	22	100%	5.3	20.2%	12.7%	7.5%	2.9%	5.09	4.62	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		22	13	66	296	41	44	12	59%	3.0	13.9%	14.8%	-0.9%	4.1%	6.44	6.06	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	40	200	902	125	133	37	59%	3.0	13.9%	14.8%	-0.9%	4.1%	6.44	6.06	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alistair Tanner (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.34	19.1%	14.3%	3.0%	—	5.00	20.2%	7.5%	38	-0.34	—	—	—
Jhoster Baez R 2024 · 4.57 FIP	19	SP-	4.57	17.3%	14.8%	1.9%	.283	5.93	15.9%	-5.0%	73	+1.36	4.57	110	87
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	84
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	84
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	84
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	83
Yeury Tatiz R 2021 · 5.54 FIP	20	SP-	5.54	17.4%	15.6%	3.5%	.295	5.10	13.0%	-1.0%	100	-0.44	3.73	221	83
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	83
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	83
Felix Arronde R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	344	+0.56	4.16	442	82
Kristian Cardozo R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	20	SW	4.89	16.3%	13.5%	2.7%	.358	6.76	13.6%	-4.3%	15	+1.87	3.49	138	82
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	81
Alfred Vega R 2021 · 4.56 FIP	20	SP-	4.56	20.5%	16.0%	2.1%	.203	4.66	13.4%	0.6%	81	+0.10	2.07	234	81
Lisander Brito R 2022 · 5.62 FIP	20	SP-	5.62	14.1%	15.0%	3.3%	.309	3.23	18.9%	5.3%	21	-2.39	3.23	101	81
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.71	17.6%	1.2%	150	+0.03	4.54	203	81
Joshua Quezada R 2024 · 4.46 FIP	20	SP-	4.46	18.3%	11.7%	2.6%	.293	4.03	19.6%	10.8%	80	-0.43	3.61	161	81
Jeisson Cabrera R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	20	SP-	4.42	21.3%	15.5%	2.1%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	244	81
Trent Fennell R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	14.5%	12.5%	1.9%	.317	4.46	20.9%	7.5%	89	-0.02	4.08	163	81
Alain Pena R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	20	SP-	5.48	14.2%	13.9%	3.3%	.222	5.68	15.6%	3.5%	191	+0.20	3.66	266	81
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	80
Keegan Zinn R 2024 · 6.40 FIP	19	SP-	6.40	19.1%	19.5%	4.4%	.318	5.80	19.0%	-1.9%	112	-0.60	4.88	145	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	19.8%	13.2%	1.15	5.17
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12