Alistair Tanner — OGILVIE

Alistair Tanner P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 19 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.19

FIP5.19

K%18.5%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%6.1%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	12	9	40	180	31	19	6	75%	3.3	11.7%	13.2%	-1.5%	5.3%	6.35	6.69	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	12	9	40	180	31	19	6	75%	3.3	11.7%	13.2%	-1.5%	5.3%	6.35	6.69	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	12	9	40	180	31	19	6	75%	3.3	17.2%	10.6%	6.7%	3.3%	6.35	4.94	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	10	4	26	116	27	17	2	40%	2.6	17.2%	17.3%	-0.1%	2.2%	6.58	5.07	—
YTD	19	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	10	4	26	116	27	17	2	40%	2.6	17.2%	17.3%	-0.1%	2.2%	6.58	5.07	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	A RAW	DET	10	4	26	116	27	17	2	40%	2.6	23.3%	14.7%	8.6%	1.7%	6.58	3.94	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	DET	7	7	38	158	31	18	5	100%	5.4	19.8%	11.2%	8.5%	3.0%	4.98	4.90	0.0
2027	20	MLB CTX	DET	3	3	18	76	15	9	2	100%	6.0	19.8%	11.2%	8.5%	3.0%	4.98	4.90	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	18	78	15	9	2	100%	4.6	19.8%	11.2%	8.6%	3.0%	4.98	4.52	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	38	200	844	163	98	22	100%	5.2	19.8%	11.2%	8.6%	3.0%	4.98	4.52	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		22	13	66	296	41	44	12	59%	3.0	13.9%	14.8%	-0.9%	4.1%	6.44	6.06	0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	40	200	902	125	133	37	59%	3.0	13.9%	14.8%	-0.9%	4.1%	6.44	6.06	0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alistair Tanner (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.19	18.5%	12.4%	3.1%	—	4.90	19.8%	8.5%	38	-0.29	—	—	—
Luis Victorino R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	19	SP-	4.26	18.9%	12.8%	2.1%	.301	4.98	15.9%	-5.0%	84	+0.72	4.26	149	90
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	89
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	88
Jose Morban R 2017 · 4.42 FIP	19	SP-	4.42	18.7%	11.2%	2.7%	.333	3.98	16.9%	5.8%	61	-0.44	3.98	178	86
Alimber Santa R 2021 · 4.85 FIP	18	SW	4.85	17.0%	11.4%	3.2%	.304	5.08	20.9%	1.8%	125	+0.23	3.32	274	84
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	84
Edward Escoboza R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	19	SP-	4.73	15.3%	11.7%	2.6%	.345	4.05	17.4%	9.9%	157	-0.68	3.44	213	83
Starlyn Castillo R 2021 · 4.17 FIP	19	SP-	4.17	16.4%	13.1%	1.5%	.271	4.76	15.3%	0.9%	117	+0.59	4.17	138	83
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	83
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	82
Manuel Perez R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	17	SP-	4.04	17.5%	11.8%	1.7%	.366	5.09	13.7%	-1.1%	117	+1.05	3.40	188	82
Yosber Sanchez R 2019 · 5.58 FIP	18	SP-	5.58	14.6%	14.9%	3.3%	.315	4.61	20.2%	-5.2%	13	-0.97	3.21	199	82
Nicholas Economos R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	20	SP-	4.95	15.3%	10.7%	3.3%	.233	5.28	10.4%	0.6%	57	+0.33	4.40	223	82
Eliazar Dishmey R 2023 · 6.05 FIP	18	SW	6.05	17.9%	15.1%	4.6%	.302	3.83	21.9%	9.2%	268	-2.22	3.40	311	81
Joel Díaz R 2022 · 5.45 FIP	18	SP-	5.45	15.3%	11.9%	3.9%	.335	4.86	16.2%	8.2%	174	-0.59	1.98	328	81
Edwin Jimenez R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	19	SP-	4.03	19.3%	8.9%	2.6%	.330	4.79	16.5%	8.0%	277	+0.76	4.03	406	81
Jerming Rosario R 2021 · 4.97 FIP	19	SW	4.97	21.1%	10.5%	4.2%	.303	4.43	20.9%	5.7%	281	-0.54	3.05	505	81
Sean Paul Liñan R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	18	SP-	4.05	17.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.324	4.30	22.1%	10.2%	210	+0.25	3.29	272	81
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	81
Xiomer Guacache R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	19	SP-	4.42	16.3%	10.5%	2.5%	.255	5.09	13.0%	0.3%	120	+0.67	4.42	186	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	31	19.3%	11.7%	1.19	5.06
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43