Alistair Tanner
P
Lakeland Flying Tigers
Age 19
RHP
6'0" / 195 lbs
A
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION26 act + 24 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104
ERA4.56
FIP4.56
K%22.1%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%12.5%
ROS IP24
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | FCL Tigers | 12 | 9 | 40 | 180 | 31 | 19 | 6 | 75% | 3.3 | 11.7% | 13.2% | -1.5% | 6.1% | 6.35 | 7.15 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | FCL Tigers | 12 | 9 | 40 | 180 | 31 | 19 | 6 | 75% | 3.3 | 17.2% | 10.6% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 6.35 | 4.94 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 10 | 4 | 26 | 116 | 27 | 17 | 2 | 40% | 2.6 | 17.2% | 17.3% | -0.1% | 2.2% | 6.58 | 5.07 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | DET | 22 | 0 | 24 | 100 | 22 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | DET | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.1% | 9.7% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.56 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 19 | MLB | DET | — | — | 50 | 216 | 49 | 27 | 5 | — | — | 22.8% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 2.4% | 5.62 | 4.83 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | DET | 5 | 5 | 25 | 105 | 24 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 5.0 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | DET | 2 | 2 | 12 | 51 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 12 | 51 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.04 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 38 | 200 | 844 | 197 | 82 | 33 | 100% | 5.2 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 22 | 13 | 66 | 296 | 41 | 44 | 14 | 59% | 3.0 | 13.9% | 14.8% | -0.9% | 4.6% | 6.44 | 6.33 | -1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 67 | 40 | 200 | 902 | 125 | 133 | 42 | 59% | 3.0 | 13.9% | 14.8% | -0.9% | 4.6% | 6.44 | 6.33 | -2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alistair Tanner (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.56 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 3.2% | — | 4.42 | 22.7% | 13.5% | 25 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Jerming Rosario R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.83 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 4.0% | .303 | 4.38 | 20.9% | 5.7% | 281 | -0.45 | 3.05 | 483 | 86 |
| Edwin Jimenez R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.12 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .330 | 4.67 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 277 | +0.55 | 4.12 | 386 | 86 |
| Jose Morban R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.42 | 18.7% | 11.2% | 2.7% | .333 | 3.98 | 16.9% | 5.8% | 61 | -0.44 | 3.98 | 178 | 81 |
| Adolfo Oviedo R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.98 | 17.2% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .272 | 4.74 | 13.4% | 8.0% | 90 | +0.76 | 3.79 | 201 | 81 |
| Miguel Rondon R 2025 · 4.47 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.47 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .361 | 8.04 | 18.1% | 2.1% | 88 | +3.57 | 2.62 | 179 | 81 |
| Domingo Pena R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.99 | 20.4% | 8.3% | 4.7% | .250 | 5.87 | 11.9% | 2.8% | 43 | +0.88 | 3.34 | 165 | 80 |
| Luis Victorino R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.27 | 18.9% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .301 | 4.95 | 15.9% | -5.0% | 84 | +0.68 | 4.27 | 148 | 80 |
| Connor Cooke R 2029 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 80 |
| Deretd Parra R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.29 | 16.8% | 10.9% | 4.1% | .295 | 3.80 | 15.7% | 2.3% | 83 | -1.49 | 2.79 | 161 | 80 |
| Fraynel Nova R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.00 | 16.4% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .296 | 4.17 | 14.9% | 4.9% | 110 | +0.17 | 3.49 | 129 | 79 |
| Eccel Correa R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.35 | 19.4% | 11.9% | 2.5% | .316 | 4.40 | 14.2% | 2.3% | 151 | +0.05 | 3.96 | 186 | 79 |
| Carson Rudd R 2029 · 3.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.43 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .351 | 5.24 | 21.6% | 5.6% | 193 | +1.81 | 3.43 | 242 | 79 |
| David Lorduy R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.19 | 20.4% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .267 | 4.41 | 16.6% | 6.9% | 155 | +0.22 | 3.33 | 241 | 79 |
| Luis Aguilar R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.54 | 17.6% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .356 | 4.26 | 16.7% | 6.7% | 111 | -0.28 | 3.52 | 146 | 79 |
| Kobe Robinson R 2028 · 4.60 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.3% | 3.0% | .296 | 3.45 | 18.8% | 4.9% | 84 | -1.15 | 2.98 | 107 | 79 |
| Miguel Díaz R 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.40 | 19.3% | 7.7% | 1.7% | .365 | 4.50 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 233 | +1.10 | 2.22 | 573 | 78 |
| Simon Mathews R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.09 | 17.7% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .326 | 4.51 | 16.0% | 5.9% | 167 | +0.42 | 4.09 | 215 | 78 |
| Sheng-En Lin R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.58 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 2.1% | .223 | 4.19 | 17.8% | 3.4% | 61 | +0.61 | 3.58 | 108 | 78 |
| Dawil Almonte R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.60 | 17.4% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .271 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 3.3% | 97 | +0.84 | 3.60 | 138 | 78 |
| Alexander Cornielle R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.08 | 24.1% | 14.2% | 2.2% | .329 | 4.34 | 19.2% | 7.6% | 312 | +0.26 | 3.85 | 502 | 77 |