Joel Cruz
P
ACL Dodgers
Age 22
RHP
6'3" / 182 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION31 act + 45 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143134vR 124
ERA5.51
FIP5.51
K%15.3%
BB%13.8%
K-BB%1.5%
ROS IP45
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 76 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | DSL LAD Mega | 16 | 12 | 29 | 157 | 32 | 39 | 0 | 75% | 1.8 | 13.9% | 31.1% | -17.2% | 0.0% | 6.21 | 5.86 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | DSL LAD Mega | 16 | 12 | 29 | 157 | 32 | 39 | 0 | 75% | 1.8 | 20.4% | 24.8% | -4.5% | 0.0% | 6.21 | 4.93 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK | DSL LAD Bautista | 13 | 11 | 46 | 198 | 46 | 15 | 3 | 85% | 3.5 | 15.8% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 1.8% | 3.91 | 3.98 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK | DSL LAD Bautista | 13 | 11 | 46 | 198 | 46 | 15 | 3 | 85% | 3.5 | 23.2% | 7.6% | 15.7% | 1.5% | 3.91 | 2.93 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | 11 | 4 | 31 | 146 | 33 | 12 | 3 | 36% | 2.8 | 15.4% | 10.3% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 4.06 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | LAD | 42 | 0 | 45 | 188 | 29 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.3% | 13.8% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 5.51 | 5.51 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15.3% | 13.8% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 5.51 | 5.51 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 76 | 334 | 62 | 38 | 8 | — | — | 18.5% | 11.4% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 4.92 | 5.17 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | LAD | 9 | 9 | 46 | 195 | 34 | 24 | 6 | 100% | 5.1 | 17.2% | 12.4% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 5.26 | 5.16 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 8 | 8 | 48 | 201 | 37 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.3% | 11.6% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 5.05 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 38 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 4.83 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 39 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.2% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 4.84 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 8 | 8 | 47 | 200 | 38 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.2% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.84 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 37 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.1% | 11.2% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 4.89 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | LAD | 4 | 4 | 23 | 97 | 17 | 12 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.2% | 12.4% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 5.26 | 5.16 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 25 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 18.3% | 11.6% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 5.05 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 7 | 7 | 39 | 165 | 31 | 18 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 34 | 19 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.2% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 4.84 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 35 | 20 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.2% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.84 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 34 | 20 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.1% | 11.2% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 4.89 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 38 | 38 | 222 | 938 | 176 | 106 | 27 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 4.94 | 4.52 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 158 | 95 | 24 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 4.94 | 4.52 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 40 | 27 | 106 | 501 | 75 | 82 | 8 | 68% | 2.6 | 15.1% | 16.5% | -1.4% | 1.6% | 4.58 | 4.77 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 75 | 51 | 200 | 945 | 142 | 156 | 15 | 68% | 2.6 | 15.1% | 16.5% | -1.4% | 1.6% | 4.58 | 4.77 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joel Cruz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.51 | 15.3% | 13.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.98 | 18.1% | 6.5% | 142 | -0.53 | — | — | — |
| Trent Fennell R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.48 | 14.5% | 12.5% | 1.9% | .317 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 7.5% | 89 | -0.24 | 3.88 | 163 | 88 |
| Danny Flatt R 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.31 | 12.9% | 12.3% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.31 | 112 | 85 |
| Ben Ethridge R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.48 | 14.4% | 13.2% | 1.7% | .250 | 6.15 | 13.0% | 2.0% | 66 | +1.67 | 4.48 | 144 | 83 |
| Dawson Netz R 2028 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 82 |
| Cade Winquest R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 17.9% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .299 | 3.91 | 20.0% | 9.6% | 158 | -0.45 | 3.34 | 236 | 82 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 82 |
| Luis Mora R 2025 · 5.78 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.78 | 16.3% | 15.4% | 3.8% | .303 | 5.55 | 23.9% | 1.2% | 43 | -0.23 | 3.95 | 119 | 82 |
| Zach Linginfelter R 2028 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.72 | 19.1% | 16.0% | 4.0% | .295 | 4.94 | 18.8% | -0.6% | 46 | -0.78 | 3.58 | 109 | 82 |
| David Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.41 | 13.5% | 11.7% | 1.8% | .316 | 3.77 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 102 | -0.64 | 3.66 | 161 | 81 |
| Alex Vallecillo R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.6% | 16.3% | 2.0% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.47 | 152 | 81 |
| Tanner Hall R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 81 |
| Ike Buxton R 2027 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 2.4% | .241 | 4.68 | 14.8% | -0.6% | 123 | -0.25 | 4.52 | 196 | 81 |
| Jonathan Hughes R 2028 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.59 | 12.9% | 12.5% | 1.8% | .351 | 3.81 | 16.5% | 6.2% | 146 | -0.78 | 3.50 | 219 | 81 |
| Xavier Altamirano R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.69 | 11.3% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .333 | 4.38 | 14.7% | 7.7% | 388 | -0.31 | 3.84 | 451 | 80 |
| Mac Sceroler R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.46 | 17.6% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .318 | 4.22 | 18.4% | 10.3% | 200 | -0.24 | 3.81 | 275 | 79 |
| James McArthur R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.37 | 18.8% | 15.5% | 3.5% | .304 | 4.20 | 20.0% | 10.7% | 131 | -1.17 | 3.53 | 352 | 79 |
| Channing Austin R 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.43 | 15.0% | 15.6% | 1.1% | .304 | 3.58 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 38 | -0.85 | 3.58 | 109 | 79 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .340 | 4.59 | 20.2% | 6.4% | 111 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 194 | 79 |
| Dillon Tate R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.72 | 14.0% | 10.6% | 2.7% | .358 | 4.09 | 15.7% | 8.6% | 261 | -0.63 | 3.02 | 599 | 79 |
| Anyelo Gómez R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.85 | 17.1% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .292 | 2.69 | 24.2% | 15.6% | 68 | -2.16 | 2.69 | 145 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 47 | 18.2% | 11.7% | 1.11 | 5.04 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |