Joel Cruz — OGILVIE

Joel Cruz P ACL Dodgers

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 182 lbs ROK peak 0.7 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 44 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.79

FIP5.79

K%15.3%

BB%15.9%

K-BB%-0.6%

ROS IP45

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	16	12	29	157	32	39	0	75%	1.8	13.9%	31.1%	-17.2%	0.0%	6.21	5.86	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	16	12	29	157	32	39	0	75%	1.8	13.9%	31.1%	-17.2%	0.0%	6.21	5.86	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	16	12	29	157	32	39	0	75%	1.8	20.4%	24.8%	-4.5%	0.0%	6.21	4.93	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	13	11	46	198	46	15	3	85%	3.5	15.8%	9.5%	6.3%	2.0%	3.91	4.05	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	13	11	46	198	46	15	3	85%	3.5	15.8%	9.5%	6.3%	2.0%	3.91	4.05	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	13	11	46	198	46	15	3	85%	3.5	23.2%	7.6%	15.7%	1.5%	3.91	2.93	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	19	8	63	293	74	30	5	42%	3.3	17.7%	12.5%	5.3%	2.3%	3.98	4.46	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	19	8	63	293	74	30	5	42%	3.3	17.7%	12.5%	5.3%	2.3%	3.98	4.46	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	LAD	12	5	39	179	47	16	3	42%	3.2	26.3%	8.9%	17.3%	1.7%	3.92	2.93	—
2026	22	A RAW	LAD	7	3	24	114	27	14	2	43%	3.5	23.7%	12.3%	11.4%	1.8%	4.07	3.62	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	LAD	12	12	64	271	47	38	8	100%	5.4	17.2%	14.0%	3.2%	2.9%	5.48	5.37	-0.3
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAD	12	12	66	278	51	36	8	100%	5.5	18.3%	12.8%	5.5%	2.8%	5.22	5.11	-0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	67	282	53	34	8	100%	6.1	18.9%	12.0%	6.9%	2.8%	5.04	4.95	-0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	67	282	54	33	8	100%	6.1	19.2%	11.9%	7.3%	2.8%	4.96	4.91	-0.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	66	277	53	33	8	100%	6.0	19.2%	12.0%	7.2%	2.9%	4.96	4.95	-0.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	64	269	51	33	8	100%	5.8	19.1%	12.1%	7.0%	3.0%	5.01	5.04	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	LAD	6	6	32	135	23	19	4	100%	5.3	17.2%	14.0%	3.2%	2.9%	5.48	5.37	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	46	194	36	25	5	100%	5.8	18.3%	12.8%	5.5%	2.8%	5.22	5.11	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAD	9	9	54	228	43	27	6	100%	6.0	18.9%	12.0%	6.9%	2.8%	5.04	4.95	-0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAD	10	10	58	245	47	29	7	100%	5.8	19.2%	11.9%	7.3%	2.8%	4.96	4.91	-0.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAD	10	10	59	249	48	30	7	100%	5.9	19.2%	12.0%	7.2%	2.9%	4.96	4.95	-0.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAD	10	10	59	249	48	30	7	100%	5.9	19.1%	12.1%	7.0%	3.0%	5.01	5.04	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	53	308	1300	244	160	37	100%	5.8	18.8%	12.3%	6.5%	2.9%	5.08	4.65	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	158	104	24	100%	5.8	18.8%	12.3%	6.5%	2.9%	5.08	4.65	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		48	31	138	648	105	104	11	65%	2.9	16.2%	16.1%	0.1%	1.7%	4.42	4.67	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	45	200	937	152	150	15	65%	2.9	16.2%	16.1%	0.1%	1.7%	4.42	4.67	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joel Cruz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.79	15.3%	15.9%	2.9%	—	5.14	18.1%	5.2%	197	-0.65	—	—	—
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	84
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	84
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.74	17.4%	0.9%	149	+0.06	4.54	202	83
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	83
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	82
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	82
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	82
Alain Pena R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	20	SP-	5.48	14.2%	13.9%	3.3%	.222	5.68	15.6%	3.5%	191	+0.20	3.66	266	81
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	81
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.53	352	81
Rubén Menes R 2023 · 6.12 FIP	21	SP-	6.12	13.1%	21.9%	2.5%	.257	4.94	15.6%	2.1%	100	-1.18	3.39	112	81
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	80
Kevin Gowdy R 2019 · 5.31 FIP	21	SP-	5.31	11.1%	17.0%	1.8%	.321	5.50	16.3%	6.0%	130	+0.19	3.16	333	80
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	80
Alberto Tirado R 2017 · 5.69 FIP	22	SW	5.69	14.7%	18.5%	2.7%	.294	3.82	16.5%	-0.2%	33	-1.87	3.78	247	80
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	80
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	80
Kevin Valdez R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	21	SP-	4.87	16.6%	17.9%	1.7%	.188	4.97	16.0%	3.2%	189	+0.10	3.46	263	80
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	80
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	63	18.3%	12.8%	1.11	5.18
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10