Griffin Burkholder

Griffin BurkholderOF Clearwater Threshers

Age 20 R/R 6'1" / 195 lbs A HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION396 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP284

ISO128

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 36 / POW 51

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT36

scouting grade only

POWER51

scouting grade only

EYE44

scouting grade only

SPEED67

scouting grade only

DEFENSE53

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$4M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	19	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	81	69	14	6	1	2	7	25	4	0	0	203	312	406	718	203	279	31	9	319	102	+0	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2025	19	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	64	58	11	4	0	2	5	17	1	1	0	190	266	362	628	172	231	27	8	282	77	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	19	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	81	71	11	5	1	1	5	33	4	0	0	155	250	296	546	141	262	41	6	256	59	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.2
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	64	60	6	2	0	1	3	24	1	1	0	100	156	183	340	83	167	38	5	182	9	-7	+0	—	—	+1	-0.5
2025	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	145	130	19	8	1	3	9	58	5	1	0	146	229	292	521	146	229	40	6	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	145	127	25	10	1	4	12	42	5	1	0	197	292	386	677	189	256	29	8	303	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	145	130	19	8	1	3	9	58	5	1	0	146	229	292	521	146	220	40	6	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	145	130	19	8	1	3	9	58	5	1	0	146	229	292	521	146	220	40	6	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	A MLE	PHI	—	396	343	59	10	1	6	31	156	19	26	6	172	277	259	537	87	290	39	8	242	50	-23	+3	+0	-2	+9	-1.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A RAW	PHI	—	271	228	55	12	1	8	29	76	12	14	5	241	357	408	765	167	324	28	11	345	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	A+ RAW	PHI	—	125	103	17	0	0	0	14	36	7	12	1	165	306	165	472		250	29	11	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	20	A MLE	PHI	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		282	33	11	270	69	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	20	A MLE	PHI	—	405	351	60	10	1	6	32	159	19	26	6	171	276	256	533	85	287	39	8	243	51	-24	+3	-0	-2	+9	-1.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	PHI	34%	371	329	67	13	1	9	28	116	11	11	2	204	288	331	619	128	283	31	8	283	78	-10	+1	-0	-2	+8	-0.3
2028	22	MLB MLE	PHI	48%	455	404	85	16	2	12	35	137	13	13	3	210	294	349	643	139	285	30	8	293	84	-8	+1	-0	-3	+10	-0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	PHI	54%	501	442	96	18	2	14	40	148	14	15	3	217	302	362	664	145	286	30	8	299	89	-7	+2	-0	-3	+11	0.2
2030	24	MLB MLE	PHI	55%	530	468	103	19	2	16	42	154	15	15	4	220	305	372	677	152	287	29	8	303	91	-6	+1	-0	-3	+11	0.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	PHI	56%	542	478	105	20	2	16	44	157	15	16	4	220	305	370	676	151	287	29	8	305	93	-5	+2	-0	-3	+12	0.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	PHI	56%	547	483	107	20	2	17	44	159	15	16	4	222	306	377	683	155	287	29	8	306	93	-5	+2	-0	-3	+12	0.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	PHI	55%	545	480	106	20	2	17	45	159	15	16	4	221	307	377	684	156	287	29	8	306	93	-4	+2	-0	-3	+12	0.5
2034	28	MLB MLE	PHI	55%	539	474	103	19	2	16	45	158	15	15	3	217	305	367	672	150	286	29	8	305	92	-5	+2	-1	-3	+12	0.4
2035	29	MLB MLE	PHI	53%	529	465	102	19	2	16	44	156	15	14	3	219	307	372	679	153	285	29	8	303	91	-6	+2	-2	-3	+11	0.3
2036	30	MLB MLE	PHI	57%	517	455	98	18	2	15	43	153	14	12	3	215	303	363	665	147	284	30	8	300	89	-7	+1	-3	-3	+11	0.0
2037	31	MLB MLE	PHI	60%	503	442	94	17	2	14	42	151	14	10	2	213	301	355	656	143	281	30	8	296	86	-8	+1	-3	-3	+11	-0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	PHI	34%	127	112	22	4	0	3	10	40	4	4	1	196	286	312	598	116	286	31	8	265	78	-3	+0	-0	-1	+3	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	PHI	48%	220	195	42	8	1	6	17	66	6	6	1	215	298	359	657	144	288	30	8	277	84	-4	+1	-0	-1	+5	-0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	PHI	54%	272	240	53	10	1	8	22	80	8	8	2	221	307	371	678	150	289	29	8	284	89	-4	+1	-0	-2	+6	0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	PHI	55%	294	260	58	11	1	9	24	86	8	9	2	223	308	377	685	154	290	29	8	288	91	-3	+1	-0	-2	+6	0.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	PHI	56%	303	268	60	11	1	10	24	88	8	9	2	224	307	384	691	160	290	29	8	290	93	-3	+1	-0	-2	+7	0.3
2032	26	MLB CTX	PHI	56%	308	271	60	11	1	10	25	89	9	9	2	221	308	380	688	159	290	29	8	291	93	-3	+1	-0	-2	+7	0.3
2033	27	MLB CTX	PHI	55%	301	265	59	11	1	10	25	88	8	9	2	223	309	385	694	162	290	29	8	291	93	-2	+1	-0	-2	+7	0.3
2034	28	MLB CTX	PHI	55%	295	260	58	11	1	10	25	86	8	8	2	223	311	388	699	165	289	29	8	290	92	-3	+1	-1	-2	+6	0.2
2035	29	MLB CTX	PHI	53%	283	249	55	10	1	9	24	83	8	7	2	221	310	378	687	157	288	29	8	288	91	-3	+1	-1	-2	+6	0.1
2036	30	MLB CTX	PHI	57%	295	260	56	10	1	9	25	88	8	7	2	215	304	365	669	150	287	30	8	285	89	-4	+1	-1	-2	+6	-0.0
2037	31	MLB CTX	PHI	60%	300	264	56	10	1	9	25	90	8	6	1	212	300	360	660	148	284	30	8	281	86	-5	+1	-2	-2	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2998	2644	579	107	10	93	246	884	83	82	19	219	305	373	678	154	289	29	8	286	88	-36	+9	-6	-18	+65	1.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	125	23	2	20	53	192	18	18	4	218	304	370	674	152	288	30	8	286	88	-8	+2	-1	-4	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	5733	5058	1086	207	22	165	462	1709	161	154	35	215	301	362	663	147	286	30	8	298	88	-70	+17	-11	-34	+121	2.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	122	23	2	19	52	194	18	17	4	213	298	360	658	147	283	30	8	298	88	-8	+2	-1	-4	+14	0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#3Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#4Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#5Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#6Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.8	3,218	93	86	217	300	365	-19	+11	3.8	3.5
/162	664	19	18	-4.0	+2.2	0.8	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Griffin Burkholder (OGILVIE)	20	20→36	30→51	70→67	44	193/281/302	109	282	4	9	33%	7%	69	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2022 · A	21	42→52	46→55	59→55	39	213/256/347	134	267	12	15	26%	4%	68	-1.0	239/275/393	154	305	16	22	27%	4%	85	+0.2	253/291/409	156	303	17	19	22%	4%	93	+0.8
✕Johan Mieses 2015 · A	20	43→33	42→55	60→50	42	208/261/317	109	274	8	22	26%	6%	62	-1.4	194/241/346	152	272	18	8	35%	5%	63	-1.4	191/265/355	164	235	23	7	30%	7%	72	-0.4
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→44	41→45	56→55	44	216/286/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	206/315/327	121	297	9	23	30%	12%	86	+0.3	203/309/335	132	285	10	26	29%	12%	83	+0.1
✕Masyn Winn 2022 · A	20	42→52	39→50	57→55	42	201/259/292	90	285	6	22	30%	7%	56	-1.9	230/286/359	129	289	11	21	23%	7%	82	-0.0	252/312/373	121	300	11	11	19%	7%	93	+0.8
✕Jarred Kelenic 2019 · A	20	45→54	43→60	57→50	42	218/277/333	115	296	10	13	29%	7%	72	-0.7	226/284/402	176	289	21	13	28%	7%	91	+0.7	223/292/404	181	286	20	15	29%	8%	92	+0.6
✕Sean Henry 2006 · A	20	42→52	43→50	55	42	204/270/313	108	299	11	15	34%	8%	65	-1.2	227/282/353	126	289	11	19	24%	6%	78	-0.3	248/301/372	124	296	11	17	19%	6%	87	+0.3
✕Coby Mayo 2022 · A	20	48→45	49→60	55→45	47	241/312/393	152	305	17	13	26%	8%	99	+1.3	222/293/388	166	300	19	6	31%	8%	92	+0.7	216/298/397	181	285	21	4	30%	9%	93	+0.7
✕Akil Baddoo 2019 · A	20	42→52	43→50	56→55	47	203/279/323	120	288	8	13	30%	9%	71	-0.8	213/282/343	130	314	11	16	33%	9%	76	-0.4	236/319/383	147	308	15	24	26%	11%	96	+0.7
✕Cayden Wallace 2023 · A	21	46→48	42→50	56→50	42	223/275/338	115	301	9	15	28%	6%	72	-0.7	214/270/329	115	284	10	12	27%	6%	69	-0.9	226/275/366	139	277	16	14	24%	5%	77	-0.3
✕Taylor Trammell 2018 · A	20	45→46	41→55	57→55	43	217/275/321	104	306	8	21	30%	7%	69	-0.9	208/280/300	92	300	8	18	31%	9%	66	-1.1	203/297/373	170	273	21	23	32%	11%	88	+0.3
✕Derek Hill 2015 · A	19	41→51	40→55	55→60	47	200/269/291	91	259	7	13	25%	8%	60	-1.6	202/254/274	72	296	2	25	30%	6%	49	-2.4	242/294/410	167	331	20	27	32%	6%	94	+0.4
✕Evan Van Hoosier 2015 · A	21	46→47	44→50	56→50	44	227/279/354	127	284	10	10	23%	6%	78	-0.3	229/273/336	107	306	6	9	26%	5%	70	-0.8	232/274/341	110	322	5	10	28%	4%	70	-0.3
✕Zack Larson 2014 · A	20	46→36	41→45	53→50	41	222/281/319	97	293	8	13	26%	6%	71	-0.8	201/256/267	66	276	3	10	27%	6%	49	-2.4	183/239/232	49	254	1	10	26%	5%	34	-1.9
✕Ryan Vega 2017 · A	20	44	40	54→45	41	212/260/305	93	270	8	9	24%	5%	59	-1.6	214/273/302	88	290	7	7	27%	6%	64	-1.3	192/260/272	79	271	7	6	30%	7%	52	-1.2
✕Dalton Pompey 2013 · A	20	40→50	40→45	55	44	197/265/289	92	278	8	16	30%	8%	58	-1.7	238/299/342	104	319	7	24	25%	8%	82	+0.0	258/316/357	98	327	7	29	22%	7%	89	+0.4
✕Robert Gonzalez 2021 · A	20	42	40→45	54→60	47	195/295/296	102	308	7	8	35%	10%	72	-0.7	202/299/283	81	274	6	17	26%	10%	71	-0.8	180/307/230	50	224	5	30	19%	12%	61	-0.5
✕Jake Marisnick 2011 · A	20	42→52	41→60	55	40	203/262/305	102	272	7	18	27%	5%	61	-1.5	231/286/355	124	296	11	19	25%	5%	81	-0.1	231/295/439	208	305	27	18	33%	6%	102	+0.7
✕Jose Siri 2015 · A	20	42→52	40→60	54→55	37	206/251/304	98	289	7	15	30%	5%	55	-1.9	192/221/305	113	307	10	17	39%	3%	44	-2.8	233/280/442	210	319	27	25	35%	5%	98	+0.8
✕Tyler Austin 2012 · A	20	49→56	44→60	57→45	40	238/286/359	120	317	10	17	28%	5%	81	-0.1	245/298/379	134	329	11	11	27%	6%	91	+0.6	229/290/423	195	307	24	3	33%	7%	96	+0.7
✕Kevin Alcántara 2022 · A	20	47→50	43→50	55→50	38	221/273/338	117	333	10	9	35%	6%	72	-0.7	225/280/352	127	335	13	11	35%	7%	78	-0.3	225/288/360	135	327	17	12	35%	8%	79	-0.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps