Griffin Burkholder

Griffin BurkholderOF Clearwater Threshers

Age 20 R/R 6'1" / 195 lbs A HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION245 act + 163 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .290 / .344

PA163

HR4

SB5

K%30

BB%7

BABIP279

ISO138

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 36 / POW 51

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT36

scouting grade only

POWER51

scouting grade only

EYE44

scouting grade only

SPEED67

scouting grade only

DEFENSE53

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+1.1	$6M	+$4M
2033	Arb-2	$4M	+1.1	$5M	+$3M
2034	Arb-3	$4M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M
Totals		$13M		$27M	+$21M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	19	A	2 teams	—	145	130	19	8	1	3	9	56	5	1	0	146	229	292	521	146	222	39	6	231	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	2 teams	—	145	127	25	10	1	4	12	42	5	1	0	197	292	386	677	189	256	29	8	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	A	PHI	—	245	211	41	9	1	6	21	87	11	13	5	194	300	332	632	137	294	36	9	284	76	-7	+1	+0	-1	+7	-0.1
YTD	20	A	PHI	—	245	204	51	11	1	8	28	61	11	13	5	250	370	431	802	181	316	25	11	359	133	+9	+1	+0	-1	+7	1.6
ROS	20	A	PHI	0%	163	145	30	6	1	4	12	49	5	5	2	206	290	344	634	138	281	30	7	288	78	-4	+0	-0	-1	+5	-0.0
ROS	20	MLB	PHI	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		284	—	—	269	64	—	—	-0	-0	—	—
FULL	20	A	PHI	—	245	212	41	9	1	6	21	87	11	13	5	193	300	330	631	137	292	36	9	284	76	-7	+1	+0	-1	+7	-0.1
TOT	20	A	PHI	—	408	356	71	15	2	10	33	136	16	18	7	199	296	337	633	138	287	33	8	286	77	-11	+1	-0	-2	+12	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	PHI	34%	360	320	69	14	2	10	28	104	9	8	3	216	297	366	663	150	284	29	8	298	86	-6	+0	-0	-2	+10	0.2
2028	22	MLB	PHI	48%	447	397	88	18	2	13	36	126	11	10	3	222	304	375	679	154	286	28	8	304	91	-5	+1	-0	-3	+13	0.6
2029	23	MLB	PHI	54%	496	441	98	20	2	15	40	137	12	11	4	222	304	379	683	156	287	28	8	308	94	-3	+1	-0	-3	+14	0.8
2030	24	MLB	PHI	55%	526	465	106	21	3	16	43	144	13	12	4	228	311	389	700	161	288	27	8	311	96	-2	+1	-0	-3	+15	1.0
2031	25	MLB	PHI	56%	539	477	109	22	3	17	44	148	13	12	4	229	311	394	705	166	288	27	8	312	97	-2	+1	-0	-3	+15	1.1
2032	26	MLB	PHI	56%	545	482	110	22	3	17	45	149	13	12	4	228	311	392	703	164	288	27	8	312	97	-2	+1	-0	-3	+15	1.1
2033	27	MLB	PHI	55%	544	481	109	22	3	17	45	149	13	12	4	227	310	391	701	164	287	27	8	312	97	-2	+1	-0	-3	+15	1.1
2034	28	MLB	PHI	55%	539	476	108	21	3	17	45	149	13	11	4	227	311	391	702	164	287	28	8	311	96	-2	+1	-1	-3	+15	0.9
2035	29	MLB	PHI	53%	528	465	104	21	2	16	45	147	13	10	3	224	310	381	690	157	286	28	9	309	95	-3	+1	-2	-3	+15	0.8
2036	30	MLB	PHI	53%	517	456	100	20	2	15	44	145	12	9	3	219	305	371	675	151	285	28	9	306	93	-4	+1	-3	-3	+15	0.5
2037	31	MLB	PHI	52%	503	443	97	19	2	15	43	142	12	8	2	219	305	372	678	153	282	28	9	302	90	-6	+1	-3	-3	+14	0.3
2038	32	MLB	PHI	52%	484	429	92	18	2	14	41	139	11	6	2	214	299	364	663	149	278	29	8	297	85	-8	+0	-4	-3	+14	-0.1
2027	21	MLB	PHI	34%	124	110	24	5	1	3	10	36	3	3	1	218	301	364	664	145	286	29	8	281	73	-4	+0	-0	-1	+4	-0.1
2028	22	MLB	PHI	48%	217	193	43	9	1	6	17	61	5	5	2	223	302	373	675	150	288	28	8	288	78	-5	+0	-0	-1	+6	-0.0
2029	23	MLB	PHI	54%	269	238	53	11	1	8	22	75	7	6	2	223	307	378	685	155	289	28	8	292	82	-5	+0	-0	-2	+8	0.1
2030	24	MLB	PHI	55%	292	259	59	12	1	9	24	80	7	6	2	228	310	386	696	158	290	27	8	295	84	-5	+0	-0	-2	+8	0.1
2031	25	MLB	PHI	56%	302	267	62	12	2	10	25	83	7	7	2	232	314	404	719	172	290	27	8	296	85	-5	+1	-0	-2	+9	0.2
2032	26	MLB	PHI	56%	307	272	62	12	2	10	25	84	7	7	2	228	309	397	706	169	290	27	8	297	85	-5	+1	-0	-2	+9	0.2
2033	27	MLB	PHI	55%	301	266	61	12	1	10	25	83	7	7	2	229	312	395	707	165	290	28	8	297	85	-5	+1	-0	-2	+9	0.2
2034	28	MLB	PHI	55%	295	261	59	12	1	9	25	81	7	6	2	226	311	383	694	157	289	27	8	296	85	-5	+0	-1	-2	+8	0.1
2035	29	MLB	PHI	53%	282	249	56	11	1	9	24	78	7	5	2	225	311	386	696	161	288	28	9	294	83	-5	+0	-1	-2	+8	0.0
2036	30	MLB	PHI	53%	272	240	53	11	1	8	23	76	7	5	2	221	307	375	682	154	287	28	8	291	81	-6	+0	-1	-2	+8	-0.1
2037	31	MLB	PHI	52%	262	232	51	10	1	8	22	74	6	4	1	220	304	375	679	155	284	28	8	287	78	-7	+0	-2	-2	+7	-0.2
2038	32	MLB	PHI	52%	251	222	47	9	1	7	21	72	6	3	1	212	297	356	653	144	281	29	8	282	74	-7	+0	-2	-2	+7	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3174	2810	630	126	14	97	263	883	76	64	21	224	308	383	690	158	289	28	8	292	82	-65	+4	-8	-19	+90	0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	129	26	3	20	54	181	16	13	4	224	309	384	693	160	289	28	8	292	82	-13	+1	-2	-4	+18	0.0
Career	—			—	6336	5607	1239	252	31	189	520	1784	155	127	42	221	305	378	683	157	286	28	8	305	92	-60	+9	-15	-38	+180	7.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	127	26	3	19	53	183	16	13	4	221	304	376	680	155	287	28	8	305	92	-6	+1	-2	-4	+18	0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	19	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	81	69	14	6	1	2	7	25	4	0	0	203	312	406	718	203	279	31	9	319	102	+0	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2025	19	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	64	58	11	4	0	2	5	17	1	1	0	190	266	362	628	172	231	27	8	282	74	-2	+0	—	—	+2	0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	6	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
	/162	664	16	27	245	323	394	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	3,386	101	67	223	303	380	-20	+11	4.9	4.4
	/162	664	20	13	223	303	380	-4.0	+2.1	1.0	pk7: 4
#3Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#4Shane Halterlast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,744 PA	5	1,744	41	11	247	305	396	-6	+8	3.9	3.9
	/162	664	16	4	247	305	396	-2.1	+3.0	1.5	pk7: 4
#5Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#6Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Griffin Burkholder (OGILVIE)	20	20→36	30→51	70→67	44	199/296/337	138	287	10	18	33%	8%	77	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2022 · A	21	42→48	47→55	59→55	38	216/258/360	144	272	14	15	26%	4%	68	-0.5	239/275/399	160	304	18	22	27%	4%	85	+0.7	247/287/396	150	298	15	20	22%	4%	88	+0.7
✕Johan Mieses 2015 · A	20	43→33	42→55	60→50	42	208/261/317	109	274	8	22	26%	6%	57	-1.2	191/237/342	151	271	18	8	36%	5%	55	-1.4	195/270/377	182	237	27	7	30%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Cayden Wallace 2023 · A	21	45→42	42→50	56→50	40	218/268/331	113	302	8	15	30%	6%	64	-0.8	215/273/337	122	287	11	12	27%	6%	68	-0.5	225/274/377	152	279	18	13	26%	5%	77	+0.1
●Coby Mayo 2022 · A	20	49→45	49→60	55→45	47	243/313/397	153	307	17	13	26%	8%	101	+1.8	223/296/393	170	304	20	6	32%	8%	93	+1.3	221/303/414	193	290	23	4	31%	9%	99	+1.4
●Akil Baddoo 2019 · A	20	42→52	42→55	56→55	46	201/275/316	115	288	8	13	31%	9%	63	-0.8	212/280/338	126	319	10	16	34%	8%	72	-0.2	240/322/392	152	311	15	24	26%	11%	100	+1.2
✕Jake Marisnick 2011 · A	20	41→51	41→60	55	40	201/260/303	102	269	7	18	27%	5%	54	-1.4	229/284/355	126	294	11	19	25%	5%	78	+0.2	226/290/423	196	302	25	18	33%	6%	96	+0.7
✕Sean Henry 2006 · A	20	42→52	43→50	55	42	204/270/313	108	299	11	15	34%	8%	61	-1.0	227/282/354	127	289	11	19	24%	6%	76	+0.1	248/301/378	130	297	12	17	20%	6%	88	+0.7
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→46	41→45	56→55	43	214/285/313	99	288	7	14	27%	7%	68	-0.5	203/314/320	117	299	9	23	31%	12%	83	+0.6	201/310/335	134	289	10	26	30%	12%	81	+0.3
●Jarred Kelenic 2019 · A	20	45→55	43→60	57→50	42	218/277/333	115	296	10	13	29%	7%	69	-0.4	234/291/434	200	292	25	13	28%	7%	102	+1.9	227/288/440	213	276	26	14	28%	7%	100	+1.5
✕Carlos Jimenez 2023 · A	20	38→43	46→55	53→50	45	188/278/321	133	289	14	16	37%	10%	68	-0.5	217/294/348	131	331	14	16	35%	9%	81	+0.4	229/308/399	169	310	21	18	31%	9%	95	+0.9
✕Kevin Alcántara 2022 · A	20	47→49	43→50	55→50	38	222/271/339	118	334	10	9	35%	6%	67	-0.5	224/278/352	128	339	14	11	36%	6%	74	-0.1	229/292/381	152	335	20	12	36%	8%	84	+0.4
✕Masyn Winn 2022 · A	20	42→52	40→50	57→55	42	201/257/293	92	281	6	22	30%	7%	50	-1.8	232/286/367	135	290	12	21	23%	7%	82	+0.5	254/312/374	120	299	11	11	18%	7%	92	+1.0
●Jo Adell 2018 · A	19	46→44	42→65	55→50	36	223/264/339	116	318	8	9	32%	4%	64	-0.8	220/270/375	155	316	17	10	34%	5%	77	+0.1	218/285/448	231	251	34	12	29%	7%	102	+1.5
●Royce Lewis 2018 · A	19	45→49	41→60	55→50	47	217/288/313	96	267	8	16	21%	7%	69	-0.4	215/262/314	99	286	8	16	27%	5%	57	-1.2	261/322/478	218	301	31	14	24%	8%	123	+1.6
●Derek Hill 2015 · A	19	41→51	40→50	55→60	47	200/269/291	91	259	7	13	25%	8%	55	-1.4	199/251/270	71	293	3	25	31%	6%	40	-2.4	248/301/422	175	338	22	29	32%	6%	100	+0.7
✕Efrain Contreras 2007 · A	20	44	41→45	51→55	44	212/279/311	99	261	9	8	22%	6%	65	-0.7	227/290/334	107	277	10	13	21%	6%	75	-0.0	227/291/331	104	281	10	15	22%	5%	72	-0.1
●Trevor Story 2013 · A	20	40→49	44→60	53→55	41	200/261/322	123	284	11	10	32%	7%	59	-1.1	191/252/329	138	303	14	15	39%	7%	58	-1.2	247/315/451	204	301	24	25	26%	8%	113	+2.3
✕Tyler Austin 2012 · A	20	49→55	44→65	57→45	40	238/286/359	120	317	10	17	28%	5%	79	+0.3	242/294/375	133	329	12	11	28%	6%	86	+0.8	232/292/438	206	310	26	3	33%	7%	100	+1.2
✕Zack Larson 2014 · A	20	46→35	41→45	53→50	41	222/281/319	97	293	8	13	26%	6%	67	-0.5	197/253/262	65	273	3	10	27%	6%	40	-2.4	177/233/223	47	249	1	10	27%	5%	21	-2.0
✕Robert Gonzalez 2021 · A	20	42	40→45	54→60	47	195/295/296	102	308	7	8	35%	10%	69	-0.4	201/299/281	80	274	6	17	26%	10%	66	-0.6	179/307/226	46	224	4	30	20%	12%	56	-0.5