Griffin Burkholder

OF Clearwater Threshers
Age 21 R/R 6'1" / 195 lbs A HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2035
ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202519A/ROKPHI145.197/.292/.3864135—.131/.209/.246
202620A+/APHI396.218/.341/.33282647—.174/.275/.258
2027PROJMLE21MLBPHI506.183/.262/.28591256-0.6
2028PROJ34% MLB22MLBPHI124.192/.271/.3133364-0.3
2029PROJ48% MLB23MLBPHI198.199/.277/.3305570-0.3
Next 3 projected WAR -1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.2M2033Arb-2$5M2034Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+
Speed77
Z-Con%62
BB%47
Chase%44
Whiff%38
K%28
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 95%
CompsJohan Mieses (age 20) · Troy Stokes Jr. (age 21) · Tyler Goeddel (age 21)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA
wRC+†56
AVG/OBP/SLG.182 / .260 / .282
PA210
HR4
SB5
K%28
BB%7
ISO101
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -11.0 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-11BATRUN: +0.6 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -0.3 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: -1.3 runs (Positional adjustment)-1POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: -0.60-0.6WAR
0.00.51.00.00.00.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$8M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2032Arb-1$0.2M———
2033Arb-2$5M———
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-3M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202519 AClearwater Threshers — 8169 14612 7254 00 203312406718 203279 319 319 56 — — — — — —
202519 ROKFCL Phillies — 6458 11402 5171 10 190266362628 172231 278 282 9 — — — — — —
202620 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws — 125103 17000 14367 121 165306165472 250 2911 242 13 — — — — — —
202620 AClearwater Threshers — 271228 551218 297612 145 241357408765 167324 2811 345 63 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202519 A MLEClearwater Threshers — 8171 11511 5324 00 155250296546 141253 406 251 56 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEFCL Phillies — 6460 6201 3241 10 100156183340 83166 385 181 9 — — — — — —
202620 A+ MLEJersey Shore BlueClaws — 125108 15000 9477 121 139250139389 234 387 188 13 — — — — — —
202620 A MLEClearwater Threshers — 271237 45916 2010312 145 190286312598 122290 387 261 63 — — — — — —
202519 A MLE2 teams — 145131 19713 8565 10 145222282505 137219 396 220 35 — — — — — —
202519 A RAW2 teams — 145127 251014 12425 10 197292386677 189256 298 303 35 — — — — — —
202620 A MLE2 teams — 396345 60916 2915019 266 174275258533 84283 387 238 47 — — — — — —
202620 A RAW2 teams — 396331 721218 4311219 266 218341332673 115300 2811 313 47 — — — — — —
202519 A MLE2 teams — 145131 19713 8565 10 145222282505 137215 396 220 35 — — — — — —
202620 A MLE2 teams — 396345 60916 2915019 266 174275258533 84272 387 238 47 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202519 A MLE2 teams — 145131 19713 8565 10 145222282505 137215 396 220 35 — — — — — —
202620 A MLE2 teams — 396345 60916 2915019 266 174275258533 84272 387 238 47 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202721 MLB MLEPHI 0% 506453 841629 3514213 123 183262285546 101242 287 251 56 -26 +1 -1 -3 +11 -0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202822 MLB MLEPHI 34% 362324 631228 26999 92 191270307577 116246 277 263 64 -15 +1 -0 -2 +8 -0.9
202923 MLB MLEPHI 48% 408365 7213210 3011010 112 197276324599 127249 277 272 70 -14 +1 +0 -2 +9 -0.7
203024 MLB MLEPHI 53% 455407 8215212 3412111 123 202280336616 134253 277 279 75 -14 +1 +1 -3 +10 -0.5
203125 MLB MLEPHI 55% 495444 9117214 3713011 133 205284344628 139255 267 283 78 -13 +1 +1 -3 +11 -0.3
203226 MLB MLEPHI 56% 507453 9317214 3813211 133 208286350636 142257 267 286 80 -12 +1 +1 -3 +11 -0.2
203327 MLB MLEPHI 55% 510455 9417214 3913411 123 206285347632 140256 268 285 79 -13 +1 +1 -3 +11 -0.3
202822 MLB CTXPHI 34% 124111 22413 9343 31 192271313584 120246 277 266 64 -5 +0 -0 -1 +3 -0.3
202923 MLB CTXPHI 48% 198177 35615 14535 51 199277330608 132250 277 275 70 -7 +1 +0 -1 +4 -0.3
203024 MLB CTXPHI 53% 240214 44817 18646 61 204282343625 140253 278 282 75 -7 +1 +0 -1 +5 -0.2
203125 MLB CTXPHI 55% 271243 50918 20716 72 207285352638 145255 267 287 78 -7 +1 +0 -2 +6 -0.2
203226 MLB CTXPHI 56% 282253 53919 21736 72 210288358645 148257 267 290 80 -7 +1 +0 -2 +6 -0.1
203327 MLB CTXPHI 55% 281252 52918 21746 72 208287355642 146257 267 288 79 -7 +1 +0 -2 +6 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 13961250 25645640 10336932 359 205282346629 142255 267 283 69 -41 +3 +2 -8 +30 -1.4
/ 162G— A+C — 650582 12021319 4817215 164 206284351634 144256 267 283 69 -19 +2 +1 -4 +14 -0.6
Career— MLE — 34883112 6091141585 25699192 10223 196277324600 128255 287 270 69 -93 +8 +3 -18 +64 -3.6
/ 162G— MLE — 650580 11421316 4818517 194 197278326603 129257 287 270 69 -20 +2 +1 -4 +14 -0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AClearwater Threshers · 271 PAwOBA .338 → .261 (−76)K% 28.0% → 38.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.04%÷1.000×1.360——38.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.70%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0157.49%
HBP% /PA4.43%—×0.780—×1.0153.51%
Singles /BIP22.37%÷1.000×0.920×0.995×1.01520.78%
Doubles /BIP7.89%÷1.000×0.830×0.995×1.0156.62%
Triples /BIP0.66%÷1.000×0.910×0.995×1.0150.60%
Home runs /BIP5.26%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0154.27%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .338 → .261; ISO .167 → .125; BABIP .324 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 125 PAwOBA .239 → .188 (−51)K% 28.8% → 37.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.80%÷1.000×1.310——37.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.20%÷1.000×0.600—×1.0276.90%
HBP% /PA5.60%—×0.770—×1.0274.43%
Singles /BIP25.37%÷1.000×0.870×1.050×1.02723.80%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.780×1.050×1.0270.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.850×1.050×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.880—×1.0270.00%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .239 → .188; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .250 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AClearwater Threshers · 81 PAwOBA .315 → .251 (−63)K% 30.9% → 39.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA30.86%÷1.065×1.360——39.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.64%÷0.975×0.690—×1.0306.30%
HBP% /PA4.94%—×0.780—×1.0303.97%
Singles /BIP11.36%÷1.030×0.920×1.014×1.03010.60%
Doubles /BIP13.64%÷0.975×0.830×1.014×1.03012.12%
Triples /BIP2.27%÷0.923×0.910×1.014×1.0302.34%
Home runs /BIP4.55%÷1.083×0.800—×1.0303.46%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 106, 2B 95, 3B 85, K 113, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .315 → .251; ISO .203 → .161; BABIP .279 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Phillies · 64 PAwOBA .274 → .181 (−93)K% 26.6% → 38.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.56%÷1.000×1.440——38.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.81%÷0.928×0.620—×0.9955.19%
HBP% /PA1.56%—×0.720—×0.9951.12%
Singles /BIP12.20%÷1.004×0.820×0.950×0.9959.42%
Doubles /BIP9.76%÷1.015×0.720×0.950×0.9956.54%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.720×0.950×0.9950.00%
Home runs /BIP4.88%÷0.917×0.780—×0.9954.13%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 101, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 100, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .274 → .181; ISO .172 → .116; BABIP .231 → .166. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).