Jesus Guerrero — OGILVIE

Jesus GuerreroC DSL NYY Bombers

Age 19 R/R 5'10" / 180 lbs ROK HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 24 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†55

AVG/OBP/SLG.190 / .292 / .238

PA24

HR0

K%33

BB%8

BABIP308

ISO48

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.1	$5M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.1	$5M	+$4M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+1.1	$4M	+$4M
2036	Arb-2	$3M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.7M
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$8M		$22M	+$19M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	18	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	59	48	8	2	0	0	7	16	4	1	0	167	322	208	530	42	250	27	12	252	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	59	44	10	3	0	0	11	11	4	1	0	227	424	295	719	68	303	19	19	353	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	ROK	NYY	—	37	30	2	1	0	0	3	19	4	0	0	67	243	100	343	33	182	51	8	186	1	-4	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.2
YTD	19	ROK	NYY	—	37	28	4	2	0	0	5	13	4	0	0	143	351	214	566	71	267	35	14	292	82	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
ROS	19	ROK	NYY	0%	24	21	4	1	0	0	2	8	1	0	0	190	292	238	530	48	285	33	8	257	55	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
ROS	19	MLB	NYY	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		286	—	—	233	36	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	19	ROK	NYY	—	37	31	2	1	0	0	3	19	4	0	0	65	243	97	340	32	167	51	8	186	1	-4	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.2
TOT	19	ROK	NYY	—	61	51	6	2	0	0	5	27	5	0	0	118	262	157	419	39	250	44	8	214	22	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	NYY	34%	151	132	26	6	1	1	13	47	5	1	0	197	293	280	574	83	288	31	9	267	63	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2028	21	MLB	NYY	48%	294	258	52	11	1	4	25	89	9	3	1	202	295	298	593	97	290	30	9	275	68	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.3
2029	22	MLB	NYY	54%	401	352	73	15	2	6	34	119	12	4	1	207	299	312	611	105	291	30	8	280	72	-13	+0	+0	+7	+11	0.7
2030	23	MLB	NYY	57%	473	415	86	18	2	7	41	139	14	4	1	207	300	311	611	104	292	29	9	283	75	-13	+0	+0	+8	+13	0.9
2031	24	MLB	NYY	57%	520	455	96	20	3	8	45	153	15	5	2	211	303	321	624	110	293	29	9	285	76	-14	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.1
2032	25	MLB	NYY	57%	520	455	97	20	3	9	45	153	15	5	2	213	305	330	635	116	293	29	9	286	77	-13	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.1
2033	26	MLB	NYY	56%	520	455	97	20	3	9	45	152	15	5	2	213	305	330	635	116	293	29	9	287	78	-13	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.1
2034	27	MLB	NYY	55%	520	454	97	20	3	9	46	153	15	5	2	214	307	330	637	117	293	29	9	287	78	-13	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.1
2035	28	MLB	NYY	55%	520	454	96	20	2	9	46	154	15	5	1	211	305	324	629	112	292	30	9	286	77	-13	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.1
2036	29	MLB	NYY	53%	520	454	93	19	2	8	46	155	15	4	1	205	299	308	607	104	291	30	9	284	76	-14	+0	-1	+9	+15	0.9
2027	20	MLB	NYY	34%	52	46	9	2	0	1	4	16	2	0	0	196	288	304	593	109	290	31	8	246	47	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
2028	21	MLB	NYY	48%	142	125	25	5	1	2	12	43	4	1	0	200	291	304	595	104	291	30	8	255	53	-8	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.1
2029	22	MLB	NYY	54%	217	190	39	8	1	3	19	64	6	2	1	205	298	305	603	100	293	29	9	260	57	-10	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.0
2030	23	MLB	NYY	57%	268	235	49	10	1	4	23	79	8	2	1	209	301	311	611	102	294	29	9	264	60	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.0
2031	24	MLB	NYY	57%	294	258	54	11	1	5	25	86	9	3	1	209	301	318	619	109	294	29	9	266	62	-13	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.1
2032	25	MLB	NYY	57%	294	258	54	11	1	5	25	86	9	3	1	209	301	318	619	109	295	29	9	267	63	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.1
2033	26	MLB	NYY	56%	294	258	54	11	1	5	25	86	9	3	1	209	301	318	619	109	294	29	9	268	63	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.2
2034	27	MLB	NYY	55%	288	253	53	11	1	5	25	85	8	3	1	209	301	320	621	111	294	30	9	268	63	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.2
2035	28	MLB	NYY	55%	285	250	52	11	1	5	25	84	8	3	1	208	300	320	620	112	294	29	9	267	62	-12	+0	-0	+5	+8	0.1
2036	29	MLB	NYY	53%	278	243	51	11	1	5	25	83	8	2	1	210	304	325	629	115	293	30	9	265	61	-12	+0	-1	+5	+8	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2412	2117	440	91	9	40	208	712	71	22	8	208	300	316	616	108	291	30	9	265	61	-107	+1	-1	+43	+68	0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	571	119	25	2	11	56	192	19	6	2	208	300	317	617	109	292	30	9	265	61	-29	+0	-0	+12	+18	0.1
Career	—			—	4522	3953	825	172	22	70	395	1338	135	42	13	209	302	316	619	108	294	30	9	283	75	-128	+3	-2	+81	+128	8.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	568	119	25	3	10	57	192	19	6	2	210	302	317	619	107	295	30	9	283	75	-18	+0	-0	+12	+18	1.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	18	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	59	44	10	3	0	0	11	11	4	1	0	227	424	295	719	68	303	19	19	353	128	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	11	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.6	16.1
	/162	664	11	2	241	318	351	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Brad Ausmuslast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA	11	4,296	39	39	244	319	326	+39	+43	12.4	12.0
	/162	664	6	6	244	319	326	+6.1	+6.6	1.9	pk7: 12
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#5Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#5Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#6Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#6Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	2,474	38	22	210	299	318	+44	+24	4.7	4.4
	/162	664	10	6	210	299	318	+11.9	+6.4	1.3	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jesus Guerrero (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	118/262/157	39	250	0	0	44%	8%	22	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris Suero 2023 · A	19	41→37	38→45	47→55	49	191/290/273	82	290	5	8	32%	11%	61	-1.0	192/289/292	100	287	9	14	33%	10%	65	-0.7	175/282/297	122	265	13	26	36%	10%	62	-0.6
✕Adrian De Leon 2023 · A	19	42	38→40	47→45	43	199/271/276	78	287	5	7	30%	8%	53	-1.5	193/290/269	76	317	6	5	37%	9%	60	-1.0	155/264/219	64	269	6	3	39%	10%	36	-1.1
✕Juan Uriarte 2017 · A	19	41	38→45	46→30	41	199/261/275	76	260	5	5	25%	5%	47	-1.9	210/260/302	92	278	8	4	26%	4%	53	-1.5	184/227/264	80	254	7	0	30%	3%	27	-1.0
✕Daniel Vellojin 2019 · A	19	39	39→45	47→45	48	189/268/273	83	260	6	6	28%	9%	50	-1.7	214/303/312	98	272	7	8	22%	10%	76	+0.0	196/299/311	116	258	12	6	27%	12%	71	-0.1
✕Rey Duran 2008 · A	19	41	39→50	49→40	44	194/268/278	84	288	7	6	33%	8%	51	-1.7	201/256/316	115	261	13	5	27%	6%	56	-1.3	210/263/349	139	246	19	2	23%	5%	65	-0.3
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2022 · A	19	42→41	39→55	47→50	50	201/285/293	92	282	6	8	29%	10%	63	-0.9	187/257/303	116	284	10	9	35%	7%	53	-1.5	217/272/375	157	286	21	10	31%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Pedro Severino 2012 · A	19	37→47	39→50	49→45	39	184/237/267	83	257	7	4	30%	6%	34	-2.8	189/233/266	77	239	5	3	22%	4%	32	-3.0	238/307/375	137	291	17	3	24%	8%	90	+0.6
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→46	36→50	49→45	39	193/237/259	66	276	3	8	30%	5%	32	-3.0	204/249/275	71	283	5	10	28%	5%	41	-2.3	232/296/366	134	301	16	8	27%	6%	83	+0.3
✕Daniel Santos 2018 · A	19	37	36→45	46→40	43	178/255/242	64	250	3	6	28%	7%	37	-2.6	197/260/282	85	284	6	6	31%	6%	49	-1.8	186/247/273	87	269	7	4	31%	6%	40	-0.7
✕Andrés Nolaya 2023 · A	18	41	35→45	44→55	47	190/278/250	60	289	2	10	32%	10%	49	-1.8	189/258/257	68	296	3	15	34%	8%	41	-2.3	194/269/271	76	278	5	22	30%	7%	48	-0.6
✕Jacob Amaya 2018 · A	19	44→46	39→45	48→45	46	210/278/294	84	284	6	8	27%	8%	59	-1.1	225/302/319	94	296	6	8	24%	10%	76	+0.0	210/281/328	118	268	13	6	25%	8%	68	-0.4
✕Oswaldo Linares 2022 · A	19	42	36→40	47→40	54	195/298/259	64	275	4	8	28%	12%	60	-1.0	196/296/284	88	277	8	5	29%	11%	66	-0.6	173/283/253	79	246	9	2	30%	12%	51	-0.6
✕Omar Alfonzo 2023 · A	19	36→40	37→45	48→40	48	171/261/237	65	254	5	3	32%	10%	39	-2.5	205/290/309	104	318	11	4	35%	10%	69	-0.4	200/285/307	107	317	13	2	38%	10%	64	-0.5
✕Marco Guzman 2014 · A	19	39	36→45	44→50	48	185/262/256	71	249	3	8	25%	9%	43	-2.2	207/264/294	87	251	5	7	19%	7%	53	-1.5	227/264/332	105	291	6	8	23%	5%	60	-0.3
✕Juan Mora 2019 · A	19	45	38→45	46→55	49	211/291/293	83	275	4	8	23%	9%	65	-0.7	213/293/327	114	268	10	14	23%	8%	75	-0.0	214/280/327	113	274	11	12	25%	6%	67	-0.2
✕Jose Sibrian 2018 · A	19	42	36→50	48→30	42	200/260/265	65	267	3	5	25%	6%	44	-2.1	194/250/265	71	274	4	5	29%	5%	40	-2.4	193/253/280	87	245	8	0	24%	5%	42	-0.8
✕Wilmer Dominguez 2010 · A	19	43	38→45	46→45	38	202/250/284	82	300	5	5	33%	6%	43	-2.2	219/259/313	94	273	9	6	22%	5%	55	-1.4	232/268/336	104	264	12	5	17%	4%	61	-0.3
✕Denzer Guzman 2023 · A	19	38→36	40→45	47→50	42	190/245/284	93	260	7	9	29%	6%	43	-2.2	187/246/287	100	286	9	8	36%	7%	43	-2.2	205/268/331	127	286	15	12	32%	7%	61	-0.7
✕Jason Lopez 2017 · A	19	40	38→55	49→45	43	195/258/270	75	266	5	11	28%	7%	44	-2.1	205/253/318	113	280	11	7	30%	5%	55	-1.4	189/235/314	124	265	13	8	33%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Alfredo González 2011 · A	19	41	36→40	48→45	43	193/257/263	71	277	3	9	30%	7%	42	-2.3	184/230/252	68	247	3	9	26%	5%	27	-3.3	220/279/277	58	303	4	8	27%	7%	52	-0.5