Jesus Guerrero — OGILVIE

Jesus GuerreroC DSL NYY Bombers

Age 19 R/R 5'10" / 180 lbs ROK HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 6 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .333 / .200

PA6

HR0

K%33

BB%17

BABIP288

ISO75

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$23M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.9M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M
2036	Arb-2	$4M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$4M	+0.3	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	18	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	59	44	10	3	0	0	11	11	4	1	0	227	424	295	719	68	303	19	19	353	125	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	59	48	8	2	0	0	7	16	4	1	0	167	322	208	530	42	241	27	12	250	55	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	59	48	8	2	0	0	7	16	4	1	0	167	322	208	530	42	250	27	12	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	—	59	44	10	3	0	0	11	11	4	1	0	227	424	295	719	68	303	19	19	353	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	59	48	8	2	0	0	7	16	4	1	0	167	322	208	530	42	241	27	12	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	59	48	8	2	0	0	7	16	4	1	0	167	322	208	530	42	241	27	12	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	NYY	—	55	43	5	1	0	0	7	23	5	0	0	116	309	140	449	23	250	42	13	225	38	-4	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK RAW	NYY	—	55	39	7	2	0	0	11	16	5	0	0	179	418	231	649	51	304	29	20	335	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	19	ROK MLE	NYY	0%	6	5	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	200	333	200	533		287	33	17	263	64	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	19	ROK MLE	NYY	—	61	48	6	1	0	0	8	25	5	0	0	125	311	146	457	21	261	41	13	229	41	-4	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	NYY	34%	151	131	26	5	1	1	14	45	5	1	0	198	300	275	575	76	289	30	9	272	70	-5	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.1
2028	21	MLB MLE	NYY	48%	294	256	52	10	1	4	27	86	9	3	1	203	301	297	598	94	290	29	9	279	75	-9	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.3
2029	22	MLB MLE	NYY	54%	401	350	73	14	2	6	37	115	11	4	1	209	304	311	615	103	291	29	9	284	79	-10	+0	+0	+7	+9	0.6
2030	23	MLB MLE	NYY	57%	473	413	86	17	2	7	44	135	13	4	1	208	304	310	614	102	292	29	9	288	81	-11	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.9
2031	24	MLB MLE	NYY	57%	520	452	98	19	3	9	48	148	15	5	2	217	313	332	644	115	293	28	9	290	82	-11	+0	+0	+9	+11	1.0
2032	25	MLB MLE	NYY	57%	520	452	98	19	3	9	48	148	15	5	2	217	313	332	644	115	293	28	9	291	83	-10	+0	+0	+9	+11	1.1
2033	26	MLB MLE	NYY	56%	520	452	97	19	3	9	48	148	15	5	2	215	311	330	640	115	293	28	9	292	84	-10	+0	+0	+9	+11	1.1
2034	27	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	520	451	97	19	3	9	49	148	15	5	2	215	313	330	643	115	293	28	9	292	84	-10	+0	+0	+9	+11	1.1
2035	28	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	520	450	96	19	2	9	50	149	15	4	1	213	313	324	637	111	292	29	10	291	83	-10	+0	-1	+9	+11	1.0
2036	29	MLB MLE	NYY	53%	520	450	95	18	2	9	50	150	15	4	1	211	311	320	631	109	291	29	10	289	82	-11	+0	-1	+9	+11	0.9
2037	30	MLB MLE	NYY	53%	520	450	93	18	2	8	50	151	15	4	1	207	307	309	616	102	290	29	10	286	80	-12	+0	-2	+9	+11	0.7
2038	31	MLB MLE	NYY	52%	504	437	90	17	2	8	48	148	14	3	1	206	305	309	614	103	287	29	10	282	77	-14	+0	-3	+9	+11	0.4
2039	32	MLB MLE	NYY	56%	488	425	85	16	2	7	47	145	13	2	1	200	299	296	595	96	284	30	10	277	74	-15	+0	-4	+9	+11	0.0
2040	33	MLB MLE	NYY	59%	446	389	76	14	2	6	42	135	12	2	1	195	293	288	581	93	279	30	9	270	69	-16	+0	-4	+8	+10	-0.3
2027	20	MLB CTX	NYY	34%	52	45	9	2	0	1	5	16	2	0	0	200	308	311	619	111	290	31	10	252	70	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	NYY	48%	142	124	26	5	1	2	13	42	4	1	0	210	305	315	619	105	292	30	9	261	75	-4	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.2
2029	22	MLB CTX	NYY	54%	217	189	40	8	1	3	20	62	6	2	1	212	307	312	619	101	293	29	9	266	79	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.3
2030	23	MLB CTX	NYY	57%	268	233	49	10	1	4	25	76	8	2	1	210	308	313	622	103	294	28	9	270	81	-6	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.5
2031	24	MLB CTX	NYY	57%	294	257	55	11	1	5	27	84	8	3	1	214	308	323	631	109	295	29	9	272	82	-6	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2032	25	MLB CTX	NYY	57%	294	257	55	11	1	5	27	84	8	3	1	214	308	323	631	109	295	29	9	274	83	-6	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2033	26	MLB CTX	NYY	56%	294	257	55	11	1	5	27	84	8	3	1	214	308	323	631	109	295	29	9	275	84	-6	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2034	27	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	288	251	54	11	1	5	27	82	8	3	1	215	311	327	638	112	294	28	9	275	84	-6	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2035	28	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	285	248	52	10	1	5	27	82	8	2	1	210	307	319	626	109	294	29	9	274	83	-6	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.5
2036	29	MLB CTX	NYY	53%	278	241	51	10	1	5	27	80	8	2	1	212	312	324	635	112	293	29	10	272	82	-6	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.4
2037	30	MLB CTX	NYY	53%	274	238	50	10	1	5	26	80	8	2	1	210	309	324	632	113	291	29	9	269	80	-7	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.3
2038	31	MLB CTX	NYY	52%	263	229	47	9	1	4	25	77	7	2	1	205	303	306	608	100	289	29	10	265	77	-7	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.2
2039	32	MLB CTX	NYY	56%	274	238	48	9	1	4	26	82	8	1	0	202	301	298	600	97	285	30	9	259	74	-9	+0	-2	+5	+6	0.0
2040	33	MLB CTX	NYY	59%	263	229	45	8	1	4	25	80	7	1	0	197	295	293	588	96	281	30	10	253	69	-10	+0	-2	+5	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3486	3036	636	125	13	57	327	1011	98	27	10	209	307	316	622	106	292	29	9	268	79	-84	+1	-8	+62	+76	4.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	566	118	23	2	11	61	189	18	5	2	208	305	314	619	106	291	29	9	268	79	-16	+0	-2	+12	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	6462	5611	1171	226	30	101	610	1869	186	52	17	209	307	314	621	105	291	29	9	285	79	-156	+3	-15	+114	+139	8.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	564	118	23	3	10	61	188	19	5	2	209	307	314	621	105	293	29	9	285	79	-16	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Austin Barneslast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,639 PA	2.5	1,639	35	22	225	325	344	+29	+59	12.4	12.5
/162	664	14	9	+11.9	+23.8	5.0	pk7: 13
#4Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#5Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	4.3	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
/162	664	4	15	+6.9	+19.7	2.4	pk7: 11
#6Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	5.3	3,548	55	27	210	304	315	+63	+32	7.5	6.4
/162	664	10	5	+11.9	+6.0	1.4	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jesus Guerrero (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	190/293/259	69	287	0	1	31%	9%	64	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Frank Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	41	36→45	48→30	45	188/278/251	63	293	3	5	34%	9%	55	-1.9	188/250/272	84	275	7	4	32%	6%	49	-2.4	183/244/267	84	244	9	1	28%	6%	43	-0.9
✕Chris Suero 2023 · A	19	41→37	38→45	47→55	49	191/288/272	81	291	5	8	32%	10%	64	-1.3	194/290/296	102	287	9	14	33%	10%	70	-0.8	175/281/296	121	259	13	27	34%	10%	66	-0.9
✕Adrian De Leon 2023 · A	19	42	38→40	47→45	43	199/271/276	78	288	5	7	31%	8%	58	-1.7	194/291/271	77	319	6	5	37%	9%	65	-1.2	158/267/223	66	272	6	3	39%	10%	45	-1.1
✕Jose Sibrian 2018 · A	19	42	36→50	48→30	42	200/260/265	65	267	3	5	25%	6%	51	-2.3	194/250/265	71	274	4	5	29%	5%	47	-2.6	202/260/295	93	255	9	0	24%	5%	55	-0.7
✕Andrés Nolaya 2023 · A	18	41	35→45	44→50	47	190/277/250	60	289	2	10	32%	10%	55	-2.0	190/259/257	67	295	3	15	34%	7%	49	-2.4	198/276/278	80	279	7	21	29%	7%	58	-0.6
✕Juan Uriarte 2017 · A	19	41	38→45	46→30	41	199/261/275	76	260	5	5	25%	5%	53	-2.1	211/261/303	92	278	8	4	26%	4%	59	-1.6	185/229/266	80	254	7	0	29%	3%	36	-1.0
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→46	36→45	49→50	39	193/237/259	66	276	3	8	30%	5%	40	-3.1	205/251/277	72	282	5	10	28%	5%	49	-2.4	227/293/349	122	296	14	8	27%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Daniel Vellojin 2019 · A	19	39	39→45	47→45	48	189/268/273	83	260	6	6	28%	9%	56	-1.9	213/303/311	98	271	7	8	22%	10%	78	-0.3	194/297/306	112	259	11	6	27%	12%	72	-0.3
✕Omar Alfonzo 2023 · A	19	36→40	37→45	48→40	48	173/263/240	67	258	5	3	32%	10%	47	-2.5	205/289/309	104	317	11	4	35%	10%	72	-0.7	200/285/310	110	312	13	2	37%	10%	69	-0.6
✕Pedro Severino 2012 · A	19	37→47	39→50	49→45	39	184/237/267	83	257	7	4	30%	6%	42	-2.9	192/236/269	77	243	5	3	22%	4%	41	-3.0	240/309/375	135	295	17	3	24%	8%	92	+0.4
✕Daniel Santos 2018 · A	19	37	36→45	46→40	43	178/255/242	64	250	3	6	28%	7%	45	-2.7	197/260/282	85	284	6	6	31%	6%	55	-2.0	186/247/273	87	269	7	4	31%	6%	47	-0.7
✕Rey Duran 2008 · A	19	41	39→50	49→40	44	194/268/278	84	288	7	6	33%	8%	57	-1.8	201/256/316	115	261	13	5	27%	6%	61	-1.5	210/263/349	139	246	19	2	23%	5%	69	-0.4
✕Marco Guzman 2014 · A	19	39	36→45	44→50	48	185/262/256	71	249	3	8	25%	9%	50	-2.3	207/264/294	87	251	5	7	19%	7%	58	-1.7	224/262/324	100	290	5	8	24%	5%	62	-0.5
✕Juan Mora 2019 · A	19	45	38→45	46→55	49	211/291/293	83	275	4	8	23%	9%	69	-0.9	213/293/326	113	268	10	14	23%	8%	78	-0.3	212/279/323	110	272	10	12	25%	6%	70	-0.4
✕Jacob Amaya 2018 · A	19	44→45	39→45	48→45	46	210/278/294	84	284	6	8	27%	8%	64	-1.3	223/301/315	92	295	6	8	24%	10%	77	-0.3	207/279/322	115	260	13	5	25%	9%	69	-0.8
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2022 · A	19	43→41	41→50	47→50	51	206/290/306	101	284	7	8	28%	10%	72	-0.7	190/261/308	118	286	11	9	35%	8%	61	-1.5	219/271/366	148	290	19	9	30%	5%	75	-0.3
✕Eddys Leonard 2021 · A	20	42→46	40→50	45→50	44	202/274/296	94	295	7	8	32%	8%	63	-1.3	225/292/371	146	302	16	5	30%	7%	87	+0.4	222/288/367	145	291	16	4	28%	6%	82	-0.0
✕Christian Cerda 2022 · A	19	40→37	38→45	47→40	48	188/271/271	82	247	4	8	24%	8%	57	-1.8	195/289/294	99	262	9	6	26%	11%	70	-0.9	183/285/276	93	245	10	4	27%	12%	63	-0.8
✕Jose Colmenares 2021 · A	19	39	39→45	47→50	45	192/256/277	84	251	7	8	26%	7%	52	-2.2	210/290/338	128	295	14	8	31%	9%	79	-0.2	177/254/299	122	259	13	14	35%	8%	55	-0.8
✕Hidekel Abreu 2016 · A	18	42	36→40	49→50	45	199/266/263	64	280	3	8	28%	8%	52	-2.2	223/284/304	81	293	5	10	24%	7%	68	-1.0	237/299/317	80	300	6	12	21%	8%	72	-0.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps