Jesus Guerrero

C DSL NYY Bombers

Age 20 R/R 5'10" / 180 lbs ROK HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1295ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	18	ROKDSL NYY Bombe…	59	.227/.424/.295	0	1	51	—	.149/.322/.191
2026	19	ROKDSL NYY Bombe…	55	.179/.418/.231	0	0	40	—	.119/.327/.143
2027PROJMLE	20	MLBNYY	165	.202/.298/.273	1	2	67	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBNYY	31	.206/.302/.288	0	0	71	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLBNYY	86	.210/.305/.300	1	1	75	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

BB%80

Chase%80

Z-Con%54

wOBA51

wRC+41

Whiff%33

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsChris Suero (age 19) · Carlos Cauro (age 19) · Carlos Rodriguez (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 36 proj PA

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .295 / .270

PA36

HR0

K%29

BB%9

ISO71

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	18	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	59	44	10	3	0	0	11	11	4	1	0	227	424	295	719	68	303	19	19	353	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	55	39	7	2	0	0	11	16	5	0	0	179	418	231	649	51	304	29	20	335	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	59	47	7	2	0	0	8	13	4	1	0	149	322	191	514	43	201	22	14	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	55	42	5	1	0	0	8	20	5	0	0	119	327	143	470	24	199	36	15	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	59	47	7	2	0	0	8	13	4	1	0	149	322	191	514	43	206	22	14	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	—	59	44	10	3	0	0	11	11	4	1	0	227	424	295	719	68	303	19	19	353	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	55	42	5	1	0	0	8	20	5	0	0	119	327	143	470	24	227	36	15	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	—	55	39	7	2	0	0	11	16	5	0	0	179	418	231	649	51	304	29	20	335	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	59	47	7	2	0	0	8	13	4	1	0	149	322	191	514	43	201	22	14	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	55	42	5	1	0	0	8	20	5	0	0	119	327	143	470	24	199	36	15	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	59	47	7	2	0	0	8	13	4	1	0	149	322	191	514	43	201	22	14	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	55	42	5	1	0	0	8	20	5	0	0	119	327	143	470	24	199	36	15	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	NYY	0%	165	145	30	6	1	1	15	47	4	2	1	202	298	273	571	71	289	28	9	267	67	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	NYY	34%	91	81	17	3	1	1	8	26	2	1	0	206	301	286	588	80	290	29	9	273	71	-3	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	NYY	48%	177	154	32	6	1	2	16	49	5	2	1	210	304	298	602	88	291	28	9	279	75	-5	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	NYY	54%	273	239	51	10	2	3	25	75	7	3	1	213	306	308	614	95	292	27	9	283	78	-7	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.4
2031	24	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	356	311	68	13	2	5	33	97	9	4	1	216	308	317	625	101	293	27	9	287	81	-8	+0	+0	+6	+8	0.6
2032	25	MLB MLE	NYY	56%	402	353	77	15	2	6	37	108	9	4	2	218	310	324	634	106	293	27	9	290	83	-8	+0	+0	+7	+9	0.8
2033	26	MLB MLE	NYY	56%	430	377	83	16	2	7	40	115	10	4	2	218	310	326	636	107	293	27	9	291	83	-9	+0	+0	+8	+9	0.8
2034	27	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	441	387	84	16	2	7	41	119	10	4	2	217	309	323	632	106	292	27	9	289	82	-9	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.8
2035	28	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	443	389	84	16	2	7	41	121	10	2	1	215	307	318	625	103	291	27	9	287	80	-10	+0	-1	+8	+10	0.6
2036	29	MLB MLE	NYY	53%	436	383	81	15	2	6	40	120	10	1	1	213	304	312	615	99	290	28	9	283	78	-12	-0	-1	+8	+9	0.4
2037	30	MLB MLE	NYY	53%	426	374	79	15	2	6	39	119	10	1	1	210	300	304	604	94	288	28	9	278	74	-13	-0	-2	+8	+9	0.2
2038	31	MLB MLE	NYY	52%	392	345	71	13	2	5	35	111	9	1	1	205	295	294	589	88	284	28	9	272	70	-14	-0	-3	+7	+8	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	NYY	34%	31	27	5	1	0	0	3	9	1	0	0	206	302	288	589	82	290	29	10	274	71	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	NYY	48%	86	76	15	3	0	1	8	24	2	1	0	210	305	300	605	90	291	28	9	280	75	-3	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	NYY	54%	148	129	28	5	1	2	14	41	4	2	1	214	307	311	618	97	292	28	9	285	78	-4	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.2
2031	24	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	197	172	37	7	1	3	18	53	5	2	1	217	309	320	629	104	293	27	9	289	81	-5	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.3
2032	25	MLB CTX	NYY	56%	225	197	43	8	1	4	21	60	5	2	1	219	310	328	638	109	293	27	9	292	83	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	NYY	56%	242	212	46	9	1	4	22	65	6	2	1	219	310	330	640	111	293	27	9	293	83	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2034	27	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	244	213	47	9	1	4	23	66	6	2	1	218	309	327	636	109	292	27	9	291	82	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2035	28	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	243	213	46	9	1	4	22	66	6	1	1	216	307	322	629	106	291	27	9	288	80	-6	-0	-0	+4	+5	0.3
2036	29	MLB CTX	NYY	53%	233	205	43	8	1	3	21	64	5	1	1	213	304	315	619	102	289	27	9	284	78	-6	-0	-1	+4	+5	0.2
2037	30	MLB CTX	NYY	53%	224	197	42	8	1	3	20	62	5	1	0	210	300	307	607	97	287	28	9	280	74	-7	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.1
2038	31	MLB CTX	NYY	52%	204	180	38	7	1	3	18	58	4	0	0	206	295	296	592	91	284	28	9	273	70	-7	+0	-1	+4	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2077	1821	390	74	9	31	190	568	49	14	7	214	305	316	621	102	292	27	9	286	77	-53	+0	-4	+37	+45	2.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	570	122	23	3	10	59	178	15	4	2	214	304	318	622	104	291	27	9	286	77	-17	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	4017	3514	745	142	20	55	374	1103	101	28	13	212	306	311	617	99	291	27	9	283	77	-101	+0	-7	+70	+85	4.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	569	120	23	3	9	61	178	16	5	2	211	305	309	615	98	288	27	9	283	77	-17	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL NYY Bombers · 55 PAwOBA .329 → .228 (−101)K% 29.1% → 35.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.09%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	35.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.00%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.995	13.93%
HBP% /PA	9.09%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	6.33%
Singles /BIP	21.74%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×0.995	14.71%
Doubles /BIP	8.70%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×0.995	5.19%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×0.995	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .329 → .228; ISO .051 → .032; BABIP .304 → .199. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL NYY Bombers · 59 PAwOBA .345 → .244 (−101)K% 18.6% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.64%	÷0.997	×1.220	—	—	22.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.64%	÷0.966	×0.700	—	×1.008	13.60%
HBP% /PA	6.78%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	4.78%
Singles /BIP	21.21%	÷0.985	×0.680	—	×1.008	14.75%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷1.019	×0.600	—	×1.008	5.39%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.961	×0.600	—	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.090	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 97, 2B 104, 3B 92, K 99, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .345 → .244; ISO .068 → .043; BABIP .303 → .201. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#2Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	4.3	2,823	31	5	231*	283*	340*	+48	+1	5.0	5.9
/162	664	7	1	+11.2	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	3.2	2,114	29	14	215	303	314	+38	+28	4.3	4.0
/162	664	9	5	+11.9	+8.8	1.4	pk7: 4
#5Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	38	9	228*	295*	352*	+30	-0	3.6	3.6
/162	664	15	4	+11.5	-0.0	1.4	pk7: 4
#6Marc Hill'73-'86 * career totals — 10 seasons, 2,047 PA	3.1	2,047	34	1	218*	292*	337*	+35	-0	2.6	3.3
/162	664	11	0	+11.4	-0.0	0.8	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jesus Guerrero (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	200/295/270	71	289	0	0	29%	9%	67	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris Suero 2023 · A	19	40→38	37→45	47→55	52	185/290/259	74	266	4	8	29%	11%	62	-1.4	194/289/297	103	280	10	14	31%	10%	70	-0.8	181/287/307	126	264	14	27	34%	10%	70	-0.7
✕Carlos Cauro 2024 · A	19	40	40	46→45	49	193/286/282	89	274	7	4	30%	10%	65	-1.2	204/280/311	107	300	11	5	33%	8%	70	-0.9	198/280/293	95	285	12	5	32%	8%	65	-0.4
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2023 · A	20	37	39→45	47→45	49	178/272/261	83	262	6	6	32%	10%	55	-1.9	190/264/264	74	295	5	6	34%	9%	52	-2.2	178/256/266	88	258	7	2	31%	9%	47	-1.0
✕Eddys Leonard 2021 · A	20	42→47	39→50	45→50	45	198/273/287	89	286	6	8	31%	8%	61	-1.5	229/297/377	148	305	16	5	29%	7%	91	+0.6	227/295/375	148	296	16	4	28%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2023 · A	20	36→44	40→50	47→50	46	175/264/271	96	263	7	8	34%	10%	55	-2.0	204/267/339	135	290	14	10	33%	7%	70	-0.8	226/279/379	153	297	20	9	30%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Andres Melendez 2021 · A	20	43	37→50	46→40	46	206/267/283	78	262	4	5	22%	7%	57	-1.8	213/291/333	120	335	11	5	36%	9%	78	-0.3	196/288/335	139	309	13	2	37%	11%	76	-0.2
✕Frank Rodriguez 2022 · A	20	40	36→45	48→30	44	190/262/257	67	265	4	4	28%	7%	50	-2.3	183/239/269	86	267	8	4	33%	5%	43	-2.8	183/244/267	84	241	9	1	27%	6%	43	-0.9
✕Darrien Miller 2021 · A	20	42	36→45	47→45	43	198/274/269	70	273	3	8	27%	6%	57	-1.8	204/306/321	117	276	13	6	29%	9%	82	+0.0	179/320/285	107	245	9	4	27%	12%	79	-0.1
✕Luis Torrens 2016 · A	20	43→49	39→50	49→40	45	207/279/288	81	285	6	6	28%	8%	63	-1.3	212/273/295	83	270	6	4	22%	7%	62	-1.4	233/290/382	149	292	18	0	26%	7%	89	+0.3
✕Andrés Nolaya 2024 · A	19	39	36→45	47→50	46	183/256/246	64	263	3	12	30%	8%	45	-2.7	196/270/269	73	284	4	17	30%	8%	55	-1.9	201/281/282	81	280	7	21	28%	8%	61	-0.5
✕Christian Cairo 2021 · A	20	39→49	35→40	48→60	44	184/266/243	59	279	2	9	32%	8%	49	-2.4	191/294/274	83	293	6	15	33%	11%	68	-1.0	219/314/286	67	298	3	31	25%	10%	75	-0.4
✕Christian Cerda 2023 · A	20	40	39→45	50→40	53	189/279/278	88	244	6	9	23%	10%	61	-1.5	198/297/302	104	263	10	4	26%	12%	74	-0.5	187/288/292	105	240	12	2	26%	12%	67	-0.7
✕Jason Lopez 2018 · A	20	39	37→50	47→45	46	188/260/261	73	250	5	9	26%	8%	50	-2.3	207/250/323	116	289	11	6	31%	5%	60	-1.6	192/240/305	113	271	11	8	32%	6%	50	-1.0
✕Pablo Aliendo 2021 · A	20	38	36→50	50→45	44	181/261/246	65	268	3	13	31%	8%	47	-2.5	202/271/300	98	303	9	5	34%	6%	63	-1.3	206/275/350	144	296	17	5	34%	7%	73	-0.3
✕Payton Henry 2017 · A	20	44→32	36→45	45→30	39	207/265/280	74	298	3	5	30%	5%	56	-1.9	186/252/288	102	315	10	3	41%	6%	53	-2.1	244/299/348	104	334	12	0	29%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Adrian De Leon 2023 · A	19	41	37→40	47→45	46	194/269/265	72	268	4	7	28%	8%	55	-2.0	194/292/269	75	320	6	5	37%	9%	65	-1.2	160/270/224	63	280	5	3	40%	10%	47	-1.1
✕Oswaldo Linares 2023 · A	20	39	38→40	48→40	56	186/292/260	74	232	6	6	21%	11%	63	-1.3	186/285/262	76	274	6	4	31%	11%	61	-1.5	167/269/232	65	254	5	2	33%	11%	47	-0.9
✕Clayton Campbell 2024 · A	20	38→44	41→45	49→45	44	182/275/289	108	287	8	6	36%	9%	63	-1.3	183/257/268	85	265	7	6	32%	8%	51	-2.3	180/250/259	79	256	8	5	31%	7%	45	-1.4
✕Jakson Reetz 2016 · A	20	47→33	38→55	48→45	47	216/306/297	80	310	4	9	29%	9%	76	-0.4	202/282/291	89	302	6	5	32%	7%	65	-1.2	198/277/386	187	246	23	4	29%	6%	83	+0.0
✕Jose Ramos 2021 · A	20	41→44	36→50	48→45	43	194/262/264	70	258	3	9	25%	6%	51	-2.2	218/281/363	145	322	16	4	35%	7%	81	-0.1	210/279/360	150	310	18	4	36%	7%	78	-0.2

Jesus Guerrero

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps