Juan Cazarez

P ACL Mariners

Age 21 RHP 5'11" / 172 lbs ROK peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKSEA	12	8	40	4.91	3.60	20.5%	9.9%	—	K 13.9% · BB 12.4% · FIP 5.02
2026	20	ROKSEA	10	9	38	5.17	3.78	29.4%	7.3%	—	K 20.0% · BB 9.2% · FIP 5.61
2027PROJ	21	MLBSEA	7	7	36	5.36	5.36	16.4%	12.3%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBSEA	4	4	19	5.15	5.07	18.1%	11.5%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control35Command30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 94%

CompsLuis Hernandez (age 21) · Ryan Harvey (age 22) · Abel Brito (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.36

FIP5.36

K%16.4%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%4.1%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL3535

CMD3030

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	5	5	20	92	20	2	1	100%	4.0	14.8%	2.7%	12.1%	1.5%	9.00	3.02	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	5	5	20	92	20	2	1	100%	4.0	14.8%	2.7%	12.1%	1.5%	9.00	3.02	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	5	5	20	92	20	2	1	100%	4.0	21.7%	2.2%	19.6%	1.1%	9.00	2.05	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	12	8	40	171	35	17	3	67%	3.4	13.9%	12.4%	1.5%	2.8%	4.91	5.02	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	12	8	40	171	35	17	3	67%	3.4	13.9%	12.4%	1.5%	2.8%	4.91	5.02	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	12	8	40	171	35	17	3	67%	3.4	20.5%	9.9%	10.5%	1.8%	4.91	3.60	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	10	9	38	177	52	13	7	90%	3.8	20.0%	9.2%	10.8%	5.5%	5.17	5.61	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	10	9	38	177	52	13	7	90%	3.8	20.0%	9.2%	10.8%	5.5%	5.17	5.61	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	10	9	38	177	52	13	7	90%	3.8	29.4%	7.3%	22.0%	4.0%	5.17	3.78	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	SEA	7	7	36	152	25	19	5	100%	5.1	16.4%	12.3%	4.1%	3.1%	5.36	5.36	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	SEA	7	7	38	161	29	18	5	100%	5.4	18.1%	11.5%	6.6%	3.0%	5.15	5.07	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	SEA	4	4	19	80	15	9	2	100%	4.8	18.1%	11.5%	6.6%	3.0%	5.15	5.07	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	19	79	14	9	2	100%	4.7	18.1%	11.5%	6.6%	3.0%	5.15	4.69	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	39	200	844	149	96	21	100%	5.1	18.1%	11.5%	6.6%	3.0%	5.15	4.69	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		27	22	99	440	73	40	16	81%	3.7	16.5%	9.1%	7.4%	3.6%	5.84	4.84	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	45	200	892	147	81	32	81%	3.7	16.5%	9.1%	7.4%	3.6%	5.84	4.84	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Cazarez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.36	16.4%	12.3%	3.1%	—	5.07	18.1%	6.6%	38	-0.29	—	—	—
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	92
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	91
Abel Brito R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP-	4.79	15.7%	12.6%	2.6%	.310	5.66	13.2%	-8.6%	70	+0.87	4.13	147	89
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	88
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	87
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	86
Camilo Sanchez R 2024 · 5.26 FIP	21	SP-	5.26	15.2%	14.0%	3.1%	.289	7.17	13.8%	-0.2%	19	+1.91	3.57	117	85
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	84
Luke Albright R 2021 · 5.77 FIP	21	SP	5.77	16.8%	13.4%	4.4%	.295	5.10	19.4%	5.5%	269	-0.67	4.02	329	84
Abel Duarte R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	21	SP-	4.84	12.5%	10.3%	2.7%	.306	3.93	13.9%	6.7%	79	-0.91	3.19	127	83
Bishop Letson R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	19	SP	4.80	16.4%	12.4%	2.8%	.222	4.00	20.2%	9.3%	132	-0.80	2.44	195	83
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	83
Andrew Cabezas R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP-	4.59	16.1%	9.4%	3.0%	.210	4.70	16.7%	6.9%	185	+0.11	4.16	300	83
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.18	19.6%	9.9%	293	-0.29	3.19	346	83
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.62	17.1%	7.4%	343	-0.97	4.16	409	83
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	83
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	82
Logan Sendelbach R 2015 · 5.31 FIP	21	SP	5.31	11.4%	9.2%	3.7%	.300	4.58	12.8%	4.3%	297	-0.73	4.14	340	82
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	82
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.05	17.5%	10.6%	280	-0.88	3.90	299	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	37	17.3%	11.9%	1.19	5.25
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27