Patrick Copen

P Tulsa Drillers

Age 25 RHP 6'6" / 220 lbs AA peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #715

Scout OFP44ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	22	20	93	3.59	3.15	24.4%	13.5%	—	K 18.4% · BB 15.7% · FIP 4.03
2025	23	MIX2 levels	27	27	118	3.59	2.88	29.0%	16.0%	—	K 22.9% · BB 17.9% · FIP 3.70
2026	24	AALAD	26	23	116	5.90	4.11	26.0%	13.2%	—	K 21.1% · BB 14.5% · FIP 4.92
2027PROJ	25	MLBLAD	24	24	138	5.24	5.24	22.6%	17.5%	-0.5
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBLAD	10	10	60	5.13	5.12	22.8%	16.5%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBLAD	14	14	86	5.08	5.09	22.7%	15.9%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff53Control32Command35FB velo65

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 5, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 82%

CompsWill Schomberg (age 23) · Zach Fruit (age 24) · Juaron Watts-Brown (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 116

ERA5.24

FIP5.24

K%22.6%

BB%17.5%

K-BB%5.1%

Proj IP138

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 138 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5055

CTRL—30

CMD3035

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	2	4	18	2	3	0	67%	1.4	11.1%	16.7%	-5.6%	0.0%	0.00	4.27	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	2	4	18	2	3	0	67%	1.4	11.1%	16.7%	-5.6%	0.0%	0.00	4.25	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	93	401	98	54	3	91%	4.2	18.4%	15.7%	2.7%	0.9%	3.59	4.03	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	93	401	98	54	3	91%	4.2	18.4%	15.7%	2.7%	0.9%	3.59	4.03	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	20	93	401	98	54	3	91%	4.2	24.4%	13.5%	11.0%	0.7%	3.59	3.15	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	118	524	152	84	2	100%	4.4	22.9%	17.9%	5.0%	0.5%	3.59	3.70	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	118	524	152	84	2	100%	4.4	22.9%	17.9%	5.0%	0.5%	3.59	3.70	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	118	524	152	84	2	100%	4.4	29.0%	16.0%	13.0%	0.4%	3.59	2.88	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	26	23	116	523	136	69	14	88%	4.5	21.1%	14.5%	6.6%	3.2%	5.90	4.92	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	26	23	116	523	136	69	14	88%	4.5	21.1%	14.5%	6.6%	3.2%	5.90	4.92	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	26	23	116	523	136	69	14	88%	4.5	26.0%	13.2%	12.8%	2.7%	5.90	4.11	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	LAD	24	24	138	583	132	102	15	100%	5.8	22.6%	17.5%	5.1%	2.7%	5.24	5.24	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAD	23	23	138	581	132	96	16	100%	6.0	22.8%	16.5%	6.3%	2.7%	5.13	5.12	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAD	23	23	136	573	130	91	16	100%	5.9	22.7%	15.9%	6.8%	2.8%	5.08	5.09	-0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAD	22	22	132	555	125	87	16	100%	6.0	22.6%	15.6%	6.9%	2.9%	5.10	5.13	-0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	LAD	21	21	126	530	118	83	16	100%	6.0	22.3%	15.7%	6.6%	3.0%	5.18	5.24	-0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	LAD	20	20	118	499	109	80	16	100%	5.9	21.9%	16.0%	6.0%	3.2%	5.32	5.42	-0.7
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAD	10	10	60	253	58	42	7	100%	6.0	22.8%	16.5%	6.3%	2.7%	5.13	5.12	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAD	14	14	86	363	82	58	10	100%	6.1	22.7%	15.9%	6.8%	2.8%	5.08	5.09	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	99	418	94	65	12	100%	6.2	22.6%	15.6%	6.9%	2.9%	5.10	5.13	-0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	LAD	17	17	103	435	97	68	13	100%	6.1	22.3%	15.7%	6.6%	3.0%	5.18	5.24	-0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	LAD	17	17	101	426	94	68	14	100%	5.9	21.9%	16.0%	6.0%	3.2%	5.32	5.42	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		75	75	450	1898	426	302	56	100%	6.0	22.4%	15.9%	6.5%	2.9%	5.17	4.83	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	190	134	25	100%	6.0	22.4%	15.9%	6.5%	2.9%	5.17	4.83	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		78	72	331	1466	306	236	23	92%	4.2	20.9%	16.1%	4.8%	1.6%	4.35	4.23	-2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	44	200	887	185	143	14	92%	4.2	20.9%	16.1%	4.8%	1.6%	4.35	4.23	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Patrick Copen (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.24	22.6%	17.5%	2.7%	—	5.11	22.7%	6.7%	405	-0.13	—	—	—
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	84
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	80
Juaron Watts-Brown R 2024 · 5.25 FIP	22	SP	5.25	21.8%	15.4%	3.7%	.294	4.92	22.8%	10.9%	221	-0.33	4.16	324	77
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	76
Trace Bright R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	23	SP	4.53	19.9%	13.5%	2.5%	.314	5.03	19.2%	6.3%	210	+0.50	4.26	422	76
Carlos Hernandez R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	17.4%	15.7%	1.3%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	123	76
Luis Quiñones R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.80	22.4%	10.8%	160	+0.03	3.69	326	75
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	75
Elijah Dale R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP	4.55	16.7%	13.6%	2.1%	.239	6.48	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.93	4.55	140	75
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	74
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	74
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	74
Nick Nastrini R 2024 · 5.76 FIP	24	SP	5.76	19.5%	14.6%	4.5%	.276	6.44	18.0%	-1.2%	47	+0.68	4.02	412	74
Ian Mejia R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	18.7%	11.6%	2.2%	.288	5.06	16.0%	6.6%	194	+0.84	3.94	439	73
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	73
Casey Steward R 2024 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP	4.06	17.4%	13.3%	1.4%	.270	4.85	15.1%	2.7%	88	+0.79	4.06	191	72
Brett Daniels R 2021 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP-	4.67	22.3%	13.0%	3.3%	.357	4.69	18.9%	3.2%	77	+0.02	3.95	270	72
Carlos Pimentel R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.266	4.32	15.8%	5.8%	158	-0.11	4.30	301	72
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	72
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	131	22.5%	16.2%	1.11	5.17
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Emmett O'Neill ('43-'46, -2 WAR*)	1.8	119	19.1%*	15.5%*	0.99*	5.94*
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Kaz Ishii ('05)	2.8	141	17.4%	14.2%	1.12	4.44
Tommy Byrne ('43-'57, 6 WAR*)	6.8	124	23.8%*	13.6%*	0.98*	4.39*
Tony Saunders ('99)	1.7	115	19.7%	13.2%	0.86	4.56