Ethan Pecko — OGILVIE

Ethan Pecko P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.8 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION106 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 91

ERA3.92

FIP3.92

K%22.0%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%12.6%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 111 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL4550

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p3022.5%

p1015.6%

xwOBA vs

p100.364

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$6M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$10M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$13M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$13M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	4	15	71	17	9	0	67%	2.5	17.9%	18.3%	-0.4%	0.0%	6.60	3.91	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	4	15	71	17	9	0	67%	2.5	17.9%	18.3%	-0.4%	0.0%	6.60	3.91	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	4	15	71	17	9	0	67%	2.5	23.9%	12.7%	11.3%	0.0%	6.60	2.63	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	15	96	404	125	37	10	58%	3.7	23.6%	10.6%	13.1%	2.9%	3.47	4.05	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	15	96	404	125	37	10	58%	3.7	23.6%	10.6%	13.1%	2.9%	3.47	4.05	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	15	96	404	125	37	10	58%	3.7	30.9%	9.2%	21.8%	2.5%	3.47	3.01	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	18	80	331	95	27	6	90%	4.0	23.6%	8.5%	15.2%	2.1%	3.83	3.34	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	18	80	331	95	27	6	90%	4.0	23.6%	8.5%	15.2%	2.1%	3.83	3.34	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	18	80	331	95	27	6	90%	4.0	28.7%	8.2%	20.5%	1.8%	3.83	2.71	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			5	4	23	96	15	12	5	80%	4.6	15.6%	12.5%	3.1%	5.2%	4.30	6.19	-0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	25	22	106	446	101	40	12	88%	4.2	17.8%	8.9%	8.8%	2.8%	4.51	4.28	—
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	25	22	106	446	101	40	12	88%	4.2	17.8%	8.9%	8.8%	2.8%	4.51	4.28	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	HOU	3	3	8	30	15	0	1	100%	2.7	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	3.3%	1.12	0.71	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	HOU	17	15	75	320	71	28	6	88%	4.4	22.2%	8.8%	13.4%	1.9%	4.94	3.36	—
2026	23	MLB RAW	HOU	5	4	23	96	15	12	5	80%	4.6	15.6%	12.5%	3.1%	5.2%	4.30	6.22	-0.3
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	HOU	5	4	23	96	15	12	5	80%	4.6	15.6%	12.5%	3.1%	5.2%	4.30	6.22	-0.3
ROS	23	MLB MLE	HOU	1	1	5	22	5	2	1	100%	5.2	22.0%	9.4%	12.6%	2.7%	3.92	3.92	+0.1
ROS	23	MLB CTX	HOU	1	1	5	21	5	2	1	100%	5.0	22.0%	9.4%	12.6%	2.6%	3.88	3.88	+0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	111	468	106	42	13	—	—	22.6%	9.0%	13.6%	2.7%	4.49	4.26	+0.8
FULL	23	MLB A+C	HOU	—	—	28	119	106	42	13	—	—	88.9%	35.3%	53.6%	10.6%	17.63	5.87	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	HOU	22	22	122	516	116	49	16	100%	5.5	22.6%	9.4%	13.1%	3.1%	4.50	4.45	+0.6
2028	25	MLB MLE	HOU	23	23	136	573	131	52	17	100%	5.9	22.9%	9.0%	13.9%	3.0%	4.41	4.36	+0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	HOU	24	24	143	602	139	54	18	100%	5.9	23.1%	8.9%	14.1%	3.0%	4.36	4.34	+0.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	HOU	24	24	144	610	140	55	19	100%	6.0	23.0%	8.9%	14.1%	3.1%	4.36	4.37	+0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	HOU	24	24	144	610	140	56	19	100%	6.0	22.9%	9.1%	13.8%	3.2%	4.42	4.45	+0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	HOU	23	23	138	583	132	54	19	100%	6.0	22.6%	9.3%	13.3%	3.3%	4.52	4.59	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	HOU	22	22	130	548	122	53	19	100%	5.9	22.3%	9.6%	12.7%	3.5%	4.67	4.76	+0.2
2034	31	MLB MLE	HOU	20	20	121	510	112	51	19	100%	6.0	21.9%	10.0%	11.9%	3.8%	4.85	4.96	-0.1
2035	32	MLB MLE	HOU	19	19	112	472	101	49	19	100%	5.9	21.4%	10.4%	11.1%	4.0%	5.05	5.19	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	HOU	21	21	116	490	110	46	15	100%	5.5	22.6%	9.4%	13.1%	3.0%	4.45	4.40	+0.6
2028	25	MLB CTX	HOU	22	22	129	545	125	49	16	100%	5.9	22.9%	9.0%	13.9%	3.0%	4.36	4.31	+0.8
2029	26	MLB CTX	HOU	22	22	135	570	131	51	17	100%	6.1	23.1%	8.9%	14.1%	3.0%	4.31	4.29	+0.9
2030	27	MLB CTX	HOU	23	23	137	578	133	52	17	100%	6.0	23.0%	8.9%	14.1%	3.0%	4.31	4.32	+0.9
2031	28	MLB CTX	HOU	23	23	137	578	132	53	18	100%	6.0	22.9%	9.1%	13.8%	3.1%	4.37	4.40	+0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	HOU	22	22	131	553	125	52	18	100%	6.0	22.6%	9.3%	13.3%	3.3%	4.47	4.54	+0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	HOU	20	20	123	519	116	50	18	100%	6.2	22.3%	9.6%	12.7%	3.4%	4.62	4.71	+0.2
2034	31	MLB CTX	HOU	19	19	115	486	106	48	18	100%	6.1	21.9%	10.0%	11.9%	3.7%	4.79	4.90	-0.1
2035	32	MLB CTX	HOU	18	18	106	448	96	46	18	100%	5.9	21.4%	10.4%	11.1%	3.9%	4.99	5.13	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		196	195	1158	4890	1096	461	160	99%	5.9	22.4%	9.4%	13.0%	3.3%	4.50	4.20	+9.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	189	80	28	99%	5.9	22.4%	9.4%	13.0%	3.3%	4.50	4.20	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		77	59	297	1252	266	124	31	77%	3.9	21.2%	9.9%	11.3%	2.5%	4.10	3.94	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	40	200	844	179	83	21	77%	3.9	21.2%	9.9%	11.3%	2.5%	4.10	3.94	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ethan Pecko (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.14	24.1%	9.5%	2.7%	—	4.38	22.8%	13.7%	400	+0.24	—	—	—
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	90
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	89
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	88
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	88
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	88
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	87
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	86
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	85
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	85
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	84
Zach Peek R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	22.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.339	3.51	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.11	3.51	256	84
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	84
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	83
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	83
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	83
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	83
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	83
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.51	21.6%	4.7%	180	-0.35	4.00	311	82
Nick Sinacola R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.3%	7.6%	3.4%	.313	3.97	17.0%	8.6%	166	-0.23	3.56	357	82
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.3	125	22.6%	9.4%	1.28	4.53
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98