Ethan Pecko

P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.7 · 2029

Overview

AAASP40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX3 levels	26	15	96	3.47	3.01	30.9%	9.2%	—	K 23.6% · BB 10.6% · FIP 4.05
2025	22	MIX3 levels	20	18	80	3.83	2.71	28.7%	8.2%	—	K 24.1% · BB 8.5% · FIP 3.30
2026	23	MIX3 levels	28	23	117	4.38	3.65	22.2%	8.6%	2.5	K 18.3% · BB 8.5% · FIP 4.04
2027PROJ	24	MLBHOU	6	6	35	4.37	4.63	19.5%	8.9%	0.3
2028PROJ83% MLB	25	MLBHOU	8	8	49	4.40	4.47	20.1%	8.6%	0.5
2029PROJ89% MLB	26	MLBHOU	9	9	52	4.41	4.43	20.5%	8.5%	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.233First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$3M2032Arb-3$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs41

FB Velo36

K%10

Form2.73 ERA (proj 4.37) · K 17.8% (proj 19.5%) · BB 6.9% (proj 8.9%) · last 60d · 26 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.1 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 9.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 74%

CompsAndrew Quezada (age 24) · Ricky Castro (age 24) · Nick Payero (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.37

FIP4.63

K%19.5%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%10.6%

Proj IP47

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$12M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p2121.2%

p1016.4%

xwOBA vs

p410.322

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.233 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-2	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$3M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$9M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	4	15	71	17	9	0	67%	2.5	17.9%	18.3%	-0.4%	0.0%	6.60	3.91	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	4	15	71	17	9	0	67%	2.5	23.9%	12.7%	11.3%	0.0%	6.60	2.63	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	15	96	404	125	37	10	58%	3.7	23.6%	10.6%	13.1%	2.9%	3.47	4.05	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	15	96	404	125	37	10	58%	3.7	23.6%	10.6%	13.1%	2.9%	3.47	4.05	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	15	96	404	125	37	10	58%	3.7	30.9%	9.2%	21.8%	2.5%	3.47	3.01	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	18	80	331	95	27	6	90%	4.0	24.1%	8.5%	15.6%	2.1%	3.83	3.30	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	18	80	331	95	27	6	90%	4.0	24.1%	8.5%	15.6%	2.1%	3.83	3.30	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	18	80	331	95	27	6	90%	4.0	28.7%	8.2%	20.5%	1.8%	3.83	2.71	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	23	117	490	109	42	12	82%	4.2	18.3%	8.5%	9.8%	2.6%	4.38	4.04	+1.9
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	23	117	490	109	42	12	82%	4.2	18.3%	8.5%	9.8%	2.6%	4.38	4.04	+1.9
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	23	117	490	109	42	12	82%	4.2	22.2%	8.6%	13.7%	2.4%	4.38	3.65	+2.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			8	5	34	140	23	14	5	62%	4.3	16.4%	10.0%	6.4%	3.6%	3.93	4.88	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	HOU	6	6	35	148	29	13	4	100%	5.8	19.5%	8.9%	10.6%	3.0%	4.37	4.63	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	HOU	10	10	59	248	50	21	7	100%	5.9	20.1%	8.6%	11.5%	3.0%	4.45	4.52	+0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	HOU	10	10	59	248	51	21	7	100%	5.9	20.5%	8.5%	12.0%	3.0%	4.46	4.48	+0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	HOU	9	9	56	237	49	20	7	100%	6.2	20.5%	8.5%	12.0%	3.1%	4.48	4.51	+0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	HOU	9	9	52	222	45	19	7	100%	5.8	20.4%	8.6%	11.8%	3.2%	4.54	4.59	+0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	HOU	7	7	44	185	37	16	6	100%	6.3	19.9%	8.9%	11.0%	3.3%	4.66	4.75	+0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	HOU	6	6	34	145	28	13	5	100%	5.7	19.2%	9.2%	10.0%	3.5%	4.84	4.95	+0.2
2034	31	MLB MLE	HOU	4	4	25	106	20	10	4	100%	6.3	18.4%	9.5%	8.9%	3.7%	5.05	5.18	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	HOU	8	8	49	207	42	18	6	100%	6.1	20.1%	8.6%	11.5%	2.9%	4.40	4.47	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	HOU	9	9	52	220	45	19	6	100%	5.8	20.5%	8.5%	12.0%	2.9%	4.41	4.43	+0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	HOU	8	8	51	215	44	18	6	100%	6.4	20.5%	8.5%	12.0%	3.0%	4.43	4.46	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	HOU	8	8	49	207	42	18	6	100%	6.1	20.4%	8.6%	11.8%	3.1%	4.49	4.54	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	HOU	7	7	41	173	34	15	6	100%	5.9	19.9%	8.9%	11.0%	3.2%	4.61	4.70	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	HOU	6	6	33	139	27	13	5	100%	5.5	19.2%	9.2%	10.0%	3.4%	4.79	4.90	+0.2
2034	31	MLB CTX	HOU	4	4	24	101	19	10	4	100%	6.0	18.4%	9.5%	8.9%	3.6%	4.99	5.12	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		58	55	332	1398	275	124	44	95%	5.7	19.7%	8.9%	10.8%	3.2%	4.48	4.30	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	33	200	841	165	75	26	95%	5.7	19.7%	8.9%	10.8%	3.2%	4.48	4.30	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		80	60	308	1296	277	125	31	75%	3.9	21.4%	9.7%	11.7%	2.4%	4.06	3.85	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	39	200	842	180	81	20	75%	3.9	21.4%	9.7%	11.7%	2.4%	4.06	3.85	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 75 IPFIP 3.36 → 3.62 (+0.25)K% 22.2% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.19%	—	×0.860	19.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.75%	—	×0.900	7.88%
HR / BF /BF	1.88%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.06%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.36 → 3.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 8 IPFIP 0.71 → 2.35 (+1.65)K% 50.0% → 37.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	50.00%	—	×0.740	37.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.180	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷1.000	×1.300	4.33%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.71 → 2.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 43 IPFIP 3.27 → 3.98 (+0.70)K% 26.2% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.16%	—	×0.810	21.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.72%	—	×1.100	9.59%
HR / BF /BF	2.33%	÷1.057	×1.200	2.64%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 3.27 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 35 IPFIP 2.15 → 2.53 (+0.38)K% 31.8% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.79%	—	×0.860	27.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.95%	—	×0.900	7.15%
HR / BF /BF	1.32%	÷0.961	×1.100	1.52%

Result: FIP 2.15 → 2.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 47 IPFIP 2.21 → 3.27 (+1.07)K% 33.3% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.740	24.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.58%	—	×1.180	12.49%
HR / BF /BF	1.06%	÷1.118	×1.300	1.23%

Result: FIP 2.21 → 3.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Asheville Tourists · 23 IPFIP 3.88 → 5.00 (+1.12)K% 30.1% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.09%	—	×0.770	23.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.08%	—	×1.150	8.14%
HR / BF /BF	4.42%	÷1.073	×1.250	5.15%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 3.88 → 5.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 27 IPFIP 3.51 → 4.45 (+0.93)K% 27.5% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.45%	—	×0.810	22.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.82%	—	×1.100	9.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷0.970	×1.200	3.64%

Result: FIP 3.51 → 4.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 12 IPFIP 3.03 → 3.91 (+0.88)K% 24.1% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.14%	—	×0.740	17.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.52%	—	×1.180	18.31%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.993	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.03 → 3.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ethan Pecko (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.50	20.4%	11.9%	174	-0.13	—	—	—
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	93
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	88
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	83
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	81
Cha Seung Baek R 2004 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%	.288	3.95	15.7%	10.0%	108	-0.82	3.35	280	81
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.31	22.9%	10.2%	109	+0.88	3.43	142	81
Tim Redding R 2002 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	19.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.309	4.48	13.8%	5.4%	307	+0.08	3.97	822	81
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	80
TJ Nichols R 2024 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP-	3.71	17.0%	9.0%	1.6%	.310	5.34	20.9%	12.4%	223	+1.63	3.71	295	80
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	80
James McArthur R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP-	3.81	19.7%	7.9%	2.5%	.310	4.12	21.9%	14.0%	194	+0.31	3.48	352	80
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	79
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	79
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	79
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	79
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	78
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	78
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	78
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	78
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	46	19.7%	8.9%	1.24	4.51
Cliff Politte ('06)	2.1	51	19.3%	9.6%	1.23	4.40
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*