Ethan Pecko
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.0 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION64 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111102vR 93
ERA4.05
FIP4.05
K%24.5%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%15.3%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 125 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 4 | 15 | 71 | 17 | 9 | 0 | 67% | 2.5 | 17.9% | 18.3% | -0.4% | 0.0% | 6.60 | 3.91 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 4 | 15 | 71 | 17 | 9 | 0 | 67% | 2.5 | 23.9% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 0.0% | 6.60 | 2.63 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 15 | 96 | 404 | 125 | 37 | 10 | 58% | 3.7 | 23.6% | 10.6% | 13.1% | 2.8% | 3.47 | 3.99 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 15 | 96 | 404 | 125 | 37 | 10 | 58% | 3.7 | 30.9% | 9.2% | 21.8% | 2.5% | 3.47 | 3.01 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 18 | 80 | 331 | 95 | 27 | 6 | 90% | 4.0 | 24.4% | 9.0% | 15.4% | 2.1% | 3.83 | 3.32 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 18 | 80 | 331 | 95 | 27 | 6 | 90% | 4.0 | 28.7% | 8.2% | 20.5% | 1.8% | 3.83 | 2.71 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 16 | 14 | 64 | 264 | 63 | 21 | 7 | 88% | 4.0 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.52 | 4.32 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 62 | 260 | 64 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 5.1 | 24.5% | 9.2% | 15.3% | 2.7% | 4.05 | 4.05 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | HOU | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.5% | 9.2% | 15.3% | 2.8% | 4.09 | 4.09 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 125 | 524 | 127 | 45 | 14 | — | — | 24.2% | 8.6% | 15.6% | 2.7% | 4.29 | 4.19 | +1.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 6 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 24.5% | 9.2% | 15.3% | 2.8% | 4.09 | 3.72 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 67 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.0% | 8.8% | 16.1% | 2.7% | 4.01 | 3.97 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 68 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.2% | 8.6% | 16.6% | 2.7% | 3.97 | 3.93 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 68 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 16.7% | 2.7% | 3.95 | 3.93 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 67 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 25.3% | 8.7% | 16.6% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 3.97 | +0.5 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 32 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.0% | 8.8% | 16.1% | 2.8% | 4.05 | 4.01 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 44 | 186 | 47 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.2% | 8.6% | 16.6% | 2.8% | 4.01 | 3.97 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 56 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 16.7% | 2.8% | 3.99 | 3.97 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 58 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.3% | 8.7% | 16.6% | 2.9% | 4.02 | 4.02 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 32 | 32 | 187 | 789 | 199 | 69 | 22 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.2% | 8.7% | 16.5% | 2.8% | 4.02 | 3.62 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 213 | 74 | 24 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.2% | 8.7% | 16.5% | 2.8% | 4.02 | 3.62 | +4.2 | ||
| Career | — | 68 | 51 | 255 | 1070 | 236 | 110 | 26 | 75% | 3.7 | 22.1% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 2.4% | 4.03 | 3.86 | +4.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 40 | 200 | 840 | 186 | 87 | 20 | 75% | 3.7 | 22.1% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 2.4% | 4.03 | 3.86 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ethan Pecko (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.05 | 24.5% | 9.2% | 2.7% | — | 3.94 | 25.2% | 16.5% | 191 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Bryce Mayer R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.30 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .304 | 4.80 | 27.2% | 12.2% | 52 | +1.50 | 3.30 | 140 | 88 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.43 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 195 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 258 | 88 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .344 | 5.03 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.07 | 3.58 | 426 | 87 |
| Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 87 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.69 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .256 | 5.06 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 89 | +1.37 | 3.69 | 333 | 85 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 85 |
| Zach Peek R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .339 | 3.40 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 45 | -0.17 | 3.40 | 233 | 85 |
| Ricky Castro R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 84 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 83 |
| Braxton Bragg R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.78 | 22.3% | 6.4% | 3.2% | .325 | 2.47 | 26.2% | 18.1% | 59 | -1.31 | 2.47 | 155 | 83 |
| J.C. Flowers R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.39 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 1.9% | 184 | +1.56 | 3.39 | 281 | 82 |
| Zack Lee R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.41 | 19.2% | 7.0% | 1.9% | .293 | 5.18 | 14.7% | 5.9% | 130 | +1.77 | 3.41 | 213 | 82 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 81 |
| Ian Bedell R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.64 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 1.9% | .285 | 5.72 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 178 | +2.08 | 3.64 | 274 | 81 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2027 · 3.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.29 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .316 | 4.60 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +1.31 | 3.29 | 142 | 81 |
| Nick Sinacola R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.07 | 20.3% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .313 | 3.91 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 166 | -0.16 | 3.53 | 357 | 80 |
| Ben Gross R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.20 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .359 | 4.87 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.67 | 4.20 | 118 | 80 |
| Jared Karros R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.31 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 1.6% | .281 | 7.92 | 12.4% | 2.7% | 52 | +4.61 | 3.31 | 191 | 80 |
| River Ryan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.58 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.1% | .321 | 3.86 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 134 | +0.28 | 2.13 | 218 | 80 |
| Nick Fraze R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .271 | 4.64 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 162 | -0.04 | 3.81 | 278 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 63 | 25.1% | 8.8% | 1.05 | 3.99 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Juan Nicasio ('19) | 5 | 68 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 0.83 | 4.21 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Cam Bedrosian ('21) | 6 | 45 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 0.97 | 3.68 |
| David Phelps ('22) | 6 | 62 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 0.87 | 3.55 |