Brett Wichrowski

P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 177 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.6 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #547Pre-ArbFA 2033

ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	21	21	89	3.84	3.59	21.2%	10.1%	—	K 17.0% · BB 11.2% · FIP 4.11
2025	22	AAMIL	22	22	99	3.44	3.63	16.7%	10.2%	—	K 13.5% · BB 11.2% · FIP 4.03
2026	23	MIX2 levels	29	13	81	6.58	5.20	23.5%	9.7%	—	K 19.5% · BB 9.8% · FIP 5.88
2027PROJ	24	MLBMIL	16	16	90	5.20	5.20	18.8%	11.2%	-0.3
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBMIL	8	8	48	5.11	5.05	20.3%	10.6%	-0.0
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBMIL	14	14	81	4.98	4.93	21.1%	10.3%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$2M2032Arb-3$2M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Command40FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsDerek True (age 23) · Tanner Hall (age 22) · Cooper Chandler (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.20

FIP5.20

K%18.8%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%7.6%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4555

CMD3040

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$0.1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	89	386	82	39	7	100%	4.2	17.0%	11.2%	5.8%	1.9%	3.84	4.11	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	89	386	82	39	7	100%	4.2	17.0%	11.2%	5.8%	1.9%	3.84	4.11	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	89	386	82	39	7	100%	4.2	21.2%	10.1%	11.1%	1.8%	3.84	3.59	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	22	22	99	432	72	44	5	100%	4.5	13.5%	11.2%	2.3%	1.2%	3.44	4.03	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	22	22	99	432	72	44	5	100%	4.5	13.5%	11.2%	2.3%	1.2%	3.44	4.03	—
2025	22	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	22	22	99	432	72	44	5	100%	4.5	16.7%	10.2%	6.5%	1.2%	3.44	3.63	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	13	81	362	85	35	18	45%	2.8	19.5%	9.8%	9.7%	5.8%	6.58	5.88	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	13	81	362	85	35	18	45%	2.8	19.5%	9.8%	9.7%	5.8%	6.58	5.88	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	13	81	362	85	35	18	45%	2.8	23.5%	9.7%	13.8%	5.0%	6.58	5.20	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	MIL	16	16	90	380	71	43	13	100%	5.6	18.8%	11.2%	7.6%	3.4%	5.20	5.20	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIL	19	19	109	461	93	49	16	100%	5.7	20.3%	10.6%	9.7%	3.4%	5.02	4.96	-0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIL	20	20	121	511	108	53	17	100%	6.1	21.1%	10.3%	10.8%	3.4%	4.89	4.84	+0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIL	20	20	119	504	107	52	17	100%	6.0	21.2%	10.2%	10.9%	3.4%	4.86	4.85	+0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIL	19	19	116	489	103	51	17	100%	6.1	21.1%	10.3%	10.7%	3.5%	4.89	4.92	-0.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIL	18	18	110	467	97	49	17	100%	6.1	20.8%	10.6%	10.3%	3.6%	4.99	5.05	-0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	104	439	90	48	17	100%	6.1	20.5%	10.9%	9.6%	3.8%	5.13	5.23	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	48	203	41	21	7	100%	6.0	20.3%	10.6%	9.7%	3.6%	5.11	5.05	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	81	342	72	35	12	100%	5.8	21.1%	10.3%	10.8%	3.5%	4.98	4.93	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	93	393	83	40	14	100%	5.8	21.2%	10.2%	10.9%	3.6%	4.95	4.94	+0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	98	414	87	43	15	100%	6.1	21.1%	10.3%	10.7%	3.7%	4.99	5.02	-0.0
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	97	410	85	43	16	100%	6.1	20.8%	10.6%	10.3%	3.8%	5.09	5.15	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	93	393	80	43	16	100%	5.8	20.5%	10.9%	9.6%	4.0%	5.24	5.34	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		85	85	509	2150	449	225	80	100%	6.0	20.9%	10.5%	10.4%	3.7%	5.06	4.70	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	176	88	31	100%	6.0	20.9%	10.5%	10.4%	3.7%	5.06	4.70	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		72	56	269	1180	194	127	33	78%	3.7	16.5%	10.8%	5.7%	2.8%	4.52	4.63	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	42	200	877	145	94	25	78%	3.7	16.5%	10.8%	5.7%	2.8%	4.52	4.63	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brett Wichrowski (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.20	18.8%	11.2%	3.4%	—	4.88	20.9%	10.5%	350	-0.32	—	—	—
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	90
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	88
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	87
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	86
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	86
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	85
Logan Evans R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.8%	10.3%	2.3%	.257	4.17	17.9%	10.2%	125	+0.00	4.17	232	85
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.31	21.9%	11.8%	274	-0.96	3.83	543	84
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	83
Houston Roth R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP-	4.44	19.3%	11.2%	2.8%	.306	5.01	21.1%	8.6%	168	+0.57	3.79	406	83
Wil Jensen R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	24	SP-	4.69	20.2%	8.6%	4.0%	.261	4.20	21.4%	11.1%	173	-0.49	3.48	368	83
Zach Miner R 2006 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP-	4.35	14.8%	7.8%	2.8%	.300	4.24	13.8%	4.6%	264	-0.11	3.55	386	83
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2015 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	18.8%	10.2%	4.1%	.327	4.01	23.2%	13.0%	155	-1.05	2.64	315	82
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	82
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	82
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	82
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	81
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	81
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	81
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	110	20.6%	10.6%	1.35	4.99
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
Cecil Ferguson ('06-'11, 3 WAR*)	3.5	116	21.0%*	10.4%*	1.26*	5.12*
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Jack Bentley ('13-'27, 5 WAR*)	3.6	143	21.1%*	9.8%*	1.35*	4.67*
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86
Matt Beech ('98)	1.5	98	20.2%	10.0%	1.59	5.37