Brahian Rijo prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Brahian Rijo P DSL Red Sox Blue

Age 19 RHP 5'11" / 180 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 13 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 150142vR 134

ERA6.15

FIP6.15

K%20.9%

BB%22.3%

K-BB%-1.4%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	16	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	12	0	18	93	19	17	1	0%	1.5	13.9%	22.8%	-9.0%	1.8%	10.70	5.79	—
2023	16	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	12	0	18	93	19	17	1	0%	1.5	13.9%	22.8%	-9.0%	1.8%	10.70	5.79	—
2023	16	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	12	0	18	93	19	17	1	0%	1.5	20.4%	18.3%	2.2%	1.1%	10.70	4.57	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	14	0	23	113	20	30	0	0%	1.7	12.0%	33.2%	-21.2%	0.0%	4.63	6.29	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	14	0	23	113	20	30	0	0%	1.7	12.0%	33.2%	-21.2%	0.0%	4.63	6.29	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Blue	14	0	23	113	20	30	0	0%	1.7	17.7%	26.5%	-8.8%	0.0%	4.63	5.24	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	19	MLB	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.9%	22.3%	-1.4%	2.9%	6.15	6.15	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	BOS	21	0	22	93	20	17	3	0%	1.1	21.6%	18.5%	3.1%	2.9%	5.74	5.59	-0.3
2027	20	MLB CTX	BOS	10	0	11	46	10	9	1	0%	1.1	21.6%	18.5%	3.1%	2.9%	5.74	5.59	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	46	10	9	1	0%	1.1	21.6%	18.5%	3.1%	2.9%	5.74	5.21	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	184	166	18	0%	1.0	21.6%	18.5%	3.1%	2.9%	5.74	5.21	-1.5
Career	—	MLE		26	0	41	206	27	59	2	0%	1.6	12.9%	28.5%	-15.6%	0.8%	7.24	6.06	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		127	0	200	1005	129	287	8	0%	1.6	12.9%	28.5%	-15.6%	0.8%	7.24	6.06	-2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brahian Rijo (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.15	20.9%	22.3%	2.9%	—	5.59	21.6%	3.1%	22	-0.56	—	—	—
Elison Joseph R 2021 · 5.31 FIP	20	SU	5.31	17.4%	19.2%	2.3%	.254	4.55	23.5%	6.8%	133	-0.76	3.32	217	87
Daniel Lloyd R 2021 · 5.40 FIP	20	SU	5.40	20.4%	22.4%	2.2%	.367	4.15	18.0%	8.5%	226	-1.25	3.59	319	87
Michell Miliano R 2019 · 7.22 FIP	19	SU	7.22	22.2%	30.4%	3.9%	.279	5.47	24.3%	-0.4%	76	-1.75	4.42	205	86
Adrian Rodriguez R 2021 · 6.92 FIP	20	SU	6.92	23.1%	34.0%	2.7%	.368	5.46	23.1%	-1.6%	93	-1.46	2.43	148	86
Jonathan Jimenez R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	19	SU	5.41	16.4%	16.2%	3.0%	.333	5.09	14.1%	2.2%	178	-0.32	3.49	189	86
Carlos De Los Santos R 2019 · 5.68 FIP	18	SU	5.68	16.9%	16.0%	3.6%	.286	3.95	20.9%	3.2%	86	-1.73	3.67	173	85
Danny Hilario R 2023 · 5.65 FIP	18	SU	5.65	17.8%	19.4%	2.9%	.241	3.68	17.2%	6.9%	68	-1.97	3.58	107	85
Jordy Luciano R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	21	SU	4.97	24.9%	22.3%	2.1%	.306	5.33	17.1%	-4.8%	80	+0.36	4.97	104	84
Brendan Hardy R 2018 · 5.18 FIP	18	SU	5.18	17.0%	19.7%	1.8%	.227	6.99	15.9%	-17.2%	25	+1.81	2.54	137	83
Junior Flores R 2021 · 5.28 FIP	19	SU	5.28	20.5%	24.1%	1.6%	.220	4.93	14.5%	-3.9%	92	-0.35	4.87	110	83
Christian Rodriguez R 2023 · 5.51 FIP	18	SU	5.51	15.5%	21.4%	1.8%	.268	4.93	17.0%	1.1%	169	-0.58	4.34	183	82
Enrique Saldana R 2018 · 6.54 FIP	19	SU	6.54	15.4%	25.9%	2.6%	.310	3.85	14.6%	6.3%	80	-2.69	2.96	109	82
Jose G. Gonzalez R 2021 · 5.42 FIP	19	SU	5.42	16.2%	22.7%	1.5%	.320	4.81	15.6%	0.6%	94	-0.61	3.63	165	82
Leandro Lopez R 2021 · 6.37 FIP	19	SU	6.37	24.7%	24.6%	4.1%	.222	3.74	25.0%	7.8%	104	-2.63	3.03	273	82
Pedro Peralta R 2023 · 6.77 FIP	17	SU	6.77	15.3%	22.9%	3.8%	.300	6.07	14.3%	-7.4%	106	-0.70	5.13	121	82
Greg Weissert R 2016 · 5.22 FIP	21	SU	5.22	19.4%	19.3%	2.4%	.382	3.80	23.0%	10.3%	126	-1.42	2.57	487	82
Jesus Colina R 2023 · 5.30 FIP	18	SU	5.30	15.3%	15.2%	2.9%	.265	4.00	17.2%	7.6%	103	-1.30	3.82	128	81
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	81
Marcus Crescentini R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	22	SU	5.80	21.8%	21.9%	3.2%	.365	3.95	23.3%	11.6%	123	-1.85	2.74	150	81
Juan Arnaud R 2022 · 6.33 FIP	19	SU	6.33	14.6%	23.7%	2.7%	.330	4.40	18.8%	1.6%	102	-1.93	3.43	184	81