Daniel Lloyd — OGILVIE

Daniel Lloyd P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 232 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION26 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136127vR 119

ERA5.39

FIP5.39

K%15.5%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%2.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	13	61	17	11	1	0%	1.3	20.4%	22.4%	-2.0%	2.2%	5.68	5.40	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	13	61	17	11	1	0%	1.3	27.9%	18.0%	9.8%	1.6%	5.68	4.05	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	2	72	317	80	23	5	7%	2.4	19.2%	8.4%	10.7%	1.9%	4.14	3.59	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	2	72	317	80	23	5	7%	2.4	25.2%	7.3%	18.0%	1.6%	4.14	2.74	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	25	15	103	429	108	32	9	60%	4.1	19.4%	8.6%	10.8%	2.9%	3.24	4.13	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	25	15	103	429	108	32	9	60%	4.1	19.4%	8.6%	10.8%	2.9%	3.24	4.13	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	25	15	103	429	108	32	9	60%	4.1	25.2%	7.5%	17.7%	2.1%	3.24	3.07	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	17	8	57	262	48	29	6	47%	3.4	13.6%	12.7%	0.9%	2.6%	5.34	4.97	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	17	8	57	262	48	29	6	47%	3.4	13.6%	12.7%	0.9%	2.6%	5.34	4.97	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	17	8	57	262	48	29	6	47%	3.4	18.3%	11.1%	7.3%	2.3%	5.34	4.30	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	38	0	56	233	47	26	5	0%	1.5	16.3%	12.3%	4.1%	2.1%	3.70	4.41	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	38	0	56	233	47	26	5	0%	1.5	16.3%	12.3%	4.1%	2.1%	3.70	4.41	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Chesapeake Baysox	38	0	56	233	47	26	5	0%	1.5	20.2%	11.2%	9.0%	2.1%	3.70	3.98	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	20	0	26	128	22	15	5	0%	1.3	13.9%	12.9%	1.0%	4.7%	8.42	6.13	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	20	0	26	128	22	15	5	0%	1.3	13.9%	12.9%	1.0%	4.7%	8.42	6.13	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	BAL	20	0	26	128	22	15	5	0%	1.3	17.2%	11.7%	5.5%	3.9%	8.42	5.28	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	BAL	6	0	6	25	4	3	1	0%	1.0	15.5%	13.3%	2.1%	2.8%	5.39	5.39	-0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	32	153	26	18	6	—	—	16.9%	12.0%	4.9%	3.7%	7.85	5.99	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	BAL	67	0	70	296	50	38	8	0%	1.0	16.8%	12.9%	3.9%	2.8%	5.26	5.24	-0.5
2028	27	MLB MLE	BAL	66	0	69	291	50	37	8	0%	1.0	17.3%	12.7%	4.6%	2.9%	5.20	5.21	-0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	BAL	64	0	67	282	49	36	8	0%	1.0	17.4%	12.7%	4.8%	3.0%	5.21	5.25	-0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	BAL	61	0	64	270	47	35	8	0%	1.0	17.3%	12.8%	4.5%	3.1%	5.29	5.36	-0.6
2027	26	MLB CTX	BAL	30	0	31	131	22	17	4	0%	1.0	16.8%	12.9%	3.9%	2.8%	5.26	5.24	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	BAL	42	0	44	186	32	24	5	0%	1.0	17.3%	12.7%	4.6%	2.9%	5.20	5.21	-0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	BAL	49	0	51	215	38	27	6	0%	1.0	17.4%	12.7%	4.8%	3.0%	5.21	5.25	-0.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	BAL	50	0	52	220	38	28	7	0%	1.0	17.3%	12.8%	4.5%	3.1%	5.29	5.36	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		169	0	177	748	129	95	22	0%	1.0	17.3%	12.8%	4.5%	3.0%	5.24	4.89	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	146	107	25	0%	1.1	17.3%	12.8%	4.5%	3.0%	5.24	4.89	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		140	25	326	1430	248	155	37	18%	2.3	17.3%	10.9%	6.5%	2.6%	4.39	4.44	-2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		86	15	200	877	152	95	23	18%	2.3	17.3%	10.9%	6.5%	2.6%	4.39	4.44	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daniel Lloyd (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.39	15.5%	13.3%	2.8%	—	5.23	17.2%	4.4%	206	-0.16	—	—	—
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	90
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	88
Aaron Northcraft R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	13.6%	10.2%	2.1%	.286	4.19	16.1%	7.8%	91	-0.18	3.32	252	86
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	84
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	84
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	84
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	84
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	84
Kender Villegas R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	13.3%	13.3%	1.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	131	84
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	83
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	83
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.53	13.6%	5.9%	162	+0.30	3.85	291	83
Jarod Wright R 2022 · 5.73 FIP	25	SU	5.73	12.7%	13.2%	3.7%	.282	4.46	13.2%	3.8%	53	-1.27	4.46	170	83
Dillon McNamara R 2017 · 5.01 FIP	25	SW	5.01	13.3%	11.1%	3.0%	.229	3.00	21.2%	12.3%	69	-2.01	1.73	244	83
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	82
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	25	SU	4.59	15.1%	10.4%	2.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	218	82
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	82
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	82
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	82
Zach Nuding R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	12.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.236	5.03	12.6%	3.3%	106	+0.27	4.76	146	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	16.8%	12.9%	1.13	5.27
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04