Daniel Lloyd

P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 232 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX4 levels	17	8	57	5.34	4.30	18.3%	11.1%	—	K 13.6% · BB 12.7% · FIP 4.97
2025	24	AABAL	38	0	56	3.70	3.98	20.2%	11.2%	—	K 16.3% · BB 12.3% · FIP 4.41
2026	25	AABAL	20	0	26	8.42	5.67	17.2%	11.7%	—	K 13.9% · BB 12.9% · FIP 6.13
2027PROJ	26	MLBBAL	1	0	1	5.74	5.74	14.4%	14.0%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBBAL	15	0	16	5.62	5.64	15.3%	13.6%	-0.2
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBBAL	20	0	21	5.58	5.62	15.8%	13.4%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control40Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsStephen Johnson (age 25) · Julian Arballo (age 27) · Clate Schmidt (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142134vR 126

ERA5.74

FIP5.74

K%14.4%

BB%14.0%

K-BB%0.4%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	13	61	17	11	1	0%	1.3	20.4%	22.4%	-2.0%	2.2%	5.68	5.40	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	13	61	17	11	1	0%	1.3	27.9%	18.0%	9.8%	1.6%	5.68	4.05	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	2	72	317	80	23	5	7%	2.4	19.2%	8.4%	10.7%	1.9%	4.14	3.59	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	2	72	317	80	23	5	7%	2.4	25.2%	7.3%	18.0%	1.6%	4.14	2.74	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	25	15	103	429	108	32	9	60%	4.1	19.4%	8.6%	10.8%	2.9%	3.24	4.13	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	25	15	103	429	108	32	9	60%	4.1	25.2%	7.5%	17.7%	2.1%	3.24	3.07	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	17	8	57	262	48	29	6	47%	3.4	13.6%	12.7%	0.9%	2.6%	5.34	4.97	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	17	8	57	262	48	29	6	47%	3.4	13.6%	12.7%	0.9%	2.6%	5.34	4.97	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	17	8	57	262	48	29	6	47%	3.4	18.3%	11.1%	7.3%	2.3%	5.34	4.30	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	38	0	56	233	47	26	5	0%	1.5	16.3%	12.3%	4.1%	2.1%	3.70	4.41	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	38	0	56	233	47	26	5	0%	1.5	16.3%	12.3%	4.1%	2.1%	3.70	4.41	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Chesapeake Baysox	38	0	56	233	47	26	5	0%	1.5	20.2%	11.2%	9.0%	2.1%	3.70	3.98	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	20	0	26	128	22	15	5	0%	1.3	13.9%	12.9%	1.0%	4.7%	8.42	6.13	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	20	0	26	128	22	15	5	0%	1.3	13.9%	12.9%	1.0%	4.7%	8.42	6.13	—
2026	25	AA RAW	Chesapeake Baysox	20	0	26	128	22	15	5	0%	1.3	17.2%	11.7%	5.5%	3.9%	8.42	5.67	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	BAL	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	14.4%	14.0%	0.4%	3.1%	5.74	5.74	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	BAL	40	0	42	177	27	24	6	0%	1.1	15.3%	13.6%	1.7%	3.1%	5.62	5.64	-0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	BAL	33	0	35	148	23	20	5	0%	1.1	15.8%	13.4%	2.4%	3.2%	5.58	5.62	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	BAL	15	0	16	68	10	9	2	0%	1.1	15.3%	13.6%	1.7%	3.1%	5.62	5.64	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	BAL	20	0	21	89	14	12	3	0%	1.1	15.8%	13.4%	2.4%	3.2%	5.58	5.62	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		35	0	37	155	24	21	5	0%	1.0	15.6%	13.5%	2.1%	3.2%	5.60	5.25	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	131	115	27	0%	1.1	15.6%	13.5%	2.1%	3.2%	5.60	5.25	-1.6
Career	—	MLE		140	25	326	1430	248	155	37	18%	2.3	17.3%	10.9%	6.5%	2.6%	4.39	4.44	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		86	15	200	877	152	95	23	18%	2.3	17.3%	10.9%	6.5%	2.6%	4.39	4.44	-2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAChesapeake Baysox · 26 IPFIP 5.28 → 6.13 (+0.85)K% 17.2% → 13.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.19%	—	×0.810	13.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.72%	—	×1.100	12.89%
HR / BF /BF	3.91%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.69%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.28 → 6.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 56 IPFIP 3.99 → 4.41 (+0.42)K% 20.2% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.17%	—	×0.810	16.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.16%	—	×1.100	12.27%
HR / BF /BF	2.15%	÷1.248	×1.200	2.06%

Result: FIP 3.99 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 40 IPFIP 4.48 → 5.43 (+0.95)K% 19.9% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.89%	—	×0.770	15.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.15%	—	×1.150	13.98%
HR / BF /BF	2.76%	÷1.026	×1.250	3.37%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 105).

Result: FIP 4.48 → 5.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 12 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.50 (+0.40)K% 10.7% → 7.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	10.71%	—	×0.740	7.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×1.180	8.43%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.952	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 103 IPFIP 3.07 → 4.13 (+1.06)K% 25.2% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.17%	—	×0.770	19.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.46%	—	×1.150	8.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.10%	÷0.912	×1.250	2.88%

Result: FIP 3.07 → 4.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 46 IPFIP 2.79 → 3.65 (+0.87)K% 26.2% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.24%	—	×0.770	20.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.44%	—	×1.150	7.40%
HR / BF /BF	1.98%	÷1.029	×1.250	2.41%

Result: FIP 2.79 → 3.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 26 IPFIP 2.70 → 3.48 (+0.79)K% 23.5% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.48%	—	×0.740	17.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.180	10.26%
HR / BF /BF	0.87%	÷1.128	×1.300	1.00%

Result: FIP 2.70 → 3.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 12 IPFIP 4.12 → 5.40 (+1.28)K% 27.6% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.59%	—	×0.740	20.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.97%	—	×1.180	22.38%
HR / BF /BF	1.72%	÷1.035	×1.300	2.17%

Result: FIP 4.12 → 5.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daniel Lloyd (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.74	14.4%	14.0%	3.1%	—	5.63	15.5%	2.0%	77	-0.11	—	—	—
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	85
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	84
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	83
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	83
Jeremy Guthrie R 2006 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	15.1%	15.1%	2.1%	.349	4.57	14.8%	8.1%	566	-0.35	4.08	1,834	81
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	81
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	81
Ricky Salinas R 2022 · 5.79 FIP	26	SU	5.79	14.3%	15.1%	3.6%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	274	81
Mark Peterson R 2017 · 4.78 FIP	26	SU	4.78	13.7%	11.9%	2.4%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	185	81
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	81
Jesús Reyes R 2019 · 5.71 FIP	26	SU	5.71	15.9%	15.7%	3.6%	.283	5.11	17.5%	5.6%	118	-0.60	3.85	554	80
Kender Villegas R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	13.3%	13.3%	1.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	131	80
Endrys Briceno R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	26	SU	4.76	14.0%	13.2%	2.1%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	303	80
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	80
Vanny Valenzuela R 2015 · 6.82 FIP	27	SW	6.82	12.4%	14.8%	5.3%	.314	4.29	15.8%	4.6%	70	-2.53	3.26	118	80
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	79
Cole Hillier R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	16.9%	14.7%	2.0%	.297	4.45	18.1%	4.5%	111	-0.19	3.80	169	79
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	79
Juan Paniagua R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	26	SU	4.57	17.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.246	4.75	12.9%	-1.0%	29	+0.18	4.57	151	79
Ian Villers R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	13.2%	11.9%	1.9%	.311	4.23	15.6%	5.2%	59	-0.32	4.23	107	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	15.0%	13.8%	1.22	5.66
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*