Daniel Lloyd
P
Chesapeake Baysox
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 232 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION26 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140131vR 121
ERA5.37
FIP5.37
K%15.5%
BB%13.4%
K-BB%2.1%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 13 | 61 | 17 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.4% | 22.4% | -2.0% | 2.1% | 5.68 | 5.36 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 13 | 61 | 17 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.9% | 18.0% | 9.8% | 1.6% | 5.68 | 4.05 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 2 | 72 | 317 | 80 | 23 | 5 | 7% | 2.4 | 19.2% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 1.8% | 4.14 | 3.55 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 2 | 72 | 317 | 80 | 23 | 5 | 7% | 2.4 | 25.2% | 7.3% | 18.0% | 1.6% | 4.14 | 2.74 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 25 | 15 | 103 | 429 | 108 | 32 | 9 | 60% | 4.1 | 19.4% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 3.24 | 4.30 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 25 | 15 | 103 | 429 | 108 | 32 | 9 | 60% | 4.1 | 25.2% | 7.5% | 17.7% | 2.1% | 3.24 | 3.07 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 17 | 8 | 57 | 262 | 48 | 29 | 6 | 47% | 3.4 | 13.6% | 12.7% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 5.34 | 4.94 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 17 | 8 | 57 | 262 | 48 | 29 | 6 | 47% | 3.4 | 18.3% | 11.1% | 7.3% | 2.3% | 5.34 | 4.30 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 38 | 0 | 56 | 233 | 47 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 16.3% | 12.3% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 3.70 | 4.22 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 38 | 0 | 56 | 233 | 47 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 2.1% | 3.70 | 3.98 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 20 | 0 | 26 | 128 | 22 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 13.9% | 12.9% | 1.0% | 4.7% | 8.42 | 6.13 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | BAL | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 46 | 40 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.5% | 13.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 5.37 | 5.37 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | BAL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.5% | 13.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 5.37 | 5.37 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 96 | 424 | 68 | 55 | 13 | — | — | 16.0% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 6.19 | 5.57 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 15.5% | 13.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 5.37 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 50 | 38 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.8% | 12.9% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 5.23 | 5.21 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 50 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 12.7% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 5.18 | 5.18 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 49 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 12.7% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 5.19 | 5.22 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 22 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.8% | 12.9% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 5.23 | 5.21 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 32 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 12.7% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 5.18 | 5.18 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 38 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 12.7% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 5.19 | 5.22 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 120 | 0 | 126 | 534 | 92 | 68 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.2% | 12.8% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 5.20 | 4.83 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 146 | 108 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.2% | 12.8% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 5.20 | 4.83 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 140 | 25 | 326 | 1430 | 248 | 155 | 37 | 18% | 2.3 | 17.3% | 10.9% | 6.5% | 2.6% | 4.39 | 4.45 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 86 | 15 | 200 | 877 | 152 | 95 | 23 | 18% | 2.3 | 17.3% | 10.9% | 6.5% | 2.6% | 4.39 | 4.45 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Daniel Lloyd (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.37 | 15.5% | 13.4% | 2.7% | — | 5.20 | 17.2% | 4.4% | 206 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| Juan Paniagua R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .262 | 4.62 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.13 | 4.51 | 151 | 88 |
| Stephen Johnson R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.44 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 141 | 87 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.50 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .286 | 4.16 | 16.1% | 7.8% | 91 | -0.34 | 3.28 | 252 | 86 |
| Grant Black R 2028 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 84 |
| Clate Schmidt R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.61 | 13.5% | 13.9% | 3.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 160 | 84 |
| Reece Karalus R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.81 | 15.4% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.74 | 149 | 84 |
| Fernando Cruz R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.41 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 356 | 83 |
| Julian Arballo R 2028 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.38 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -1.09 | 4.28 | 214 | 83 |
| Kender Villegas R 2025 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 13.3% | 13.3% | 1.6% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 131 | 83 |
| Tyler Burch R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.70 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 119 | 83 |
| Josh Zeid R 2029 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.21 | 16.6% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .302 | 5.16 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 194 | +0.95 | 4.21 | 265 | 83 |
| Justin Camp R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.00 | 13.2% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.59 | 140 | 83 |
| Chase Plymell R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.21 | 19.2% | 13.0% | 2.0% | .330 | 4.58 | 14.2% | 5.4% | 162 | +0.37 | 3.79 | 291 | 83 |
| Conor Steinbaugh R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.77 | 16.0% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .281 | 6.87 | 14.3% | 0.8% | 39 | +2.10 | 4.77 | 107 | 83 |
| Jeff Soptic R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.45 | 13.6% | 15.3% | 2.8% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 124 | 83 |
| Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.49 | 15.1% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 218 | 82 |
| Andrew McInvale R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.08 | 17.6% | 15.9% | 2.6% | .324 | 7.06 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 23 | +1.98 | 4.90 | 103 | 82 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.59 | 18.2% | 16.2% | 1.8% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.18 | 103 | 82 |
| Rob Huber R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.67 | 15.7% | 14.7% | 1.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 117 | 82 |
| Chance Huff R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.35 | 15.4% | 12.5% | 1.8% | .300 | 5.04 | 18.0% | 0.3% | 34 | +0.69 | 4.35 | 235 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 69 | 16.7% | 12.9% | 1.09 | 5.24 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |