Jesus Colina — OGILVIE

Jesus Colina P ACL Reds

Age 21 RHP 5'11" / 170 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 16 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%19.9%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%9.1%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	6	0	7	30	9	5	0	0%	1.2	30.0%	16.7%	13.3%	0.0%	3.86	2.68	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	6	0	7	30	9	5	0	0%	1.2	30.0%	16.7%	13.3%	0.0%	3.86	2.67	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	15	0	25	107	24	13	2	0%	1.6	15.3%	15.2%	0.1%	2.9%	6.20	5.30	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	15	0	25	107	24	13	2	0%	1.6	15.3%	15.2%	0.1%	2.9%	6.20	5.30	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	15	0	25	107	24	13	2	0%	1.6	22.4%	12.1%	10.3%	1.9%	6.20	3.79	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	9	46	194	31	12	3	64%	3.3	10.9%	7.7%	3.1%	1.9%	3.72	4.21	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	9	46	194	31	12	3	64%	3.3	10.9%	7.7%	3.1%	1.9%	3.72	4.21	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	14	9	46	194	31	12	3	64%	3.3	16.0%	6.2%	9.8%	1.5%	3.72	3.38	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	15	0	19	88	27	10	1	0%	1.3	20.9%	14.2%	6.7%	1.3%	8.53	3.84	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	15	0	19	88	27	10	1	0%	1.3	20.9%	14.2%	6.7%	1.3%	8.53	3.84	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	15	0	19	88	27	10	1	0%	1.3	30.7%	11.4%	19.3%	1.1%	8.53	2.52	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	29	0	38	153	50	12	3	0%	1.3	22.8%	9.6%	13.2%	2.6%	2.82	3.82	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	29	0	38	153	50	12	3	0%	1.3	22.8%	9.6%	13.2%	2.6%	2.82	3.82	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	CIN	20	0	25	103	35	7	1	0%	1.2	34.0%	6.8%	27.2%	1.0%	2.16	1.62	—
2026	21	A RAW	CIN	9	0	13	50	15	5	2	0%	1.5	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	4.0%	4.05	4.03	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	CIN	41	0	44	184	39	18	5	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.9%	11.4%	2.9%	4.60	4.51	+0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	CIN	20	0	21	89	19	9	3	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.9%	11.4%	2.9%	4.60	4.51	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		20	0	21	90	19	9	3	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.9%	11.4%	2.9%	4.60	4.13	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	178	84	28	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.9%	11.4%	2.9%	4.60	4.13	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		79	9	135	572	100	63	12	11%	1.7	17.4%	11.1%	6.3%	2.1%	4.60	4.17	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		117	13	200	847	148	94	18	11%	1.7	17.4%	11.1%	6.3%	2.1%	4.60	4.17	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus Colina (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	19.9%	10.8%	2.9%	—	4.51	21.3%	11.4%	44	-0.27	—	—	—
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	89
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	88
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	88
Sandy Lugo R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.98	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.12	3.48	146	88
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	88
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	87
Austin Mason R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	21	SU	4.41	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.289	4.06	16.2%	6.5%	151	-0.35	3.60	179	87
Andrew Bash R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	22	SU	3.87	18.0%	9.2%	2.1%	.273	4.21	14.9%	4.8%	146	+0.34	3.52	483	87
Jeremy Beasley R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.10	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.61	3.17	337	87
Mason Fox R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SU	3.59	21.9%	11.5%	1.6%	.260	6.72	21.3%	4.8%	30	+3.13	3.59	112	87
Yordin Chalas R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	19	SU	4.56	17.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.294	3.92	19.9%	7.8%	116	-0.64	3.67	140	87
Logan Lombana R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	21	SU	4.63	16.9%	10.0%	3.1%	.315	4.02	15.7%	8.1%	123	-0.61	3.80	155	86
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	86
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	85
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	85
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	85
Nick Lockhart R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	21	SU	4.44	22.0%	9.9%	3.5%	.275	4.63	16.1%	5.5%	43	+0.19	4.44	140	85
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	85
Audry Lugo R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	18.5%	11.4%	2.0%	.247	5.30	15.6%	-0.4%	77	+1.25	4.05	113	85
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	20.9%	10.1%	1.12	4.65
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21