Max Gieg

P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 230 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	A+LAA	7	0	8	3.52	6.75	28.2%	20.5%	—	K 28.2% · BB 20.5% · FIP 6.13
2025	24	MIX2 levels	36	3	52	6.19	4.36	25.8%	18.9%	—	K 19.9% · BB 21.5% · FIP 5.17
2026	25	A+LAA	28	0	41	7.90	5.37	23.8%	22.4%	—	K 18.3% · BB 25.7% · FIP 6.12
2027PROJ	26	MLBLAA	—	—	0	5.90	5.90	19.6%	20.0%	—
2028PROJ37% MLB	27	MLBLAA	14	0	15	5.76	5.78	20.0%	19.0%	-0.2
2029PROJ59% MLB	28	MLBLAA	20	0	21	5.71	5.75	20.1%	18.4%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control20Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsHaden Erbe (age 25) · Christian Ruebeck (age 23) · Luis García (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.90

FIP5.90

K%19.6%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-0.4%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL2020

CMD4040

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	13	0	16	70	20	7	2	0%	1.2	21.1%	11.8%	9.3%	4.2%	5.06	5.10	—
2022	21	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	13	0	16	70	20	7	2	0%	1.2	28.6%	10.0%	18.6%	2.9%	5.06	3.54	—
2023	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	31	0	40	173	49	20	2	0%	1.3	21.0%	13.6%	7.3%	1.7%	4.95	3.98	—
2023	22	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	31	0	40	173	49	20	2	0%	1.3	28.3%	11.6%	16.8%	1.2%	4.95	2.80	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	7	0	8	39	11	8	2	0%	1.1	28.2%	20.5%	7.7%	5.1%	3.52	6.13	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	7	0	8	39	11	8	2	0%	1.1	28.2%	20.5%	7.7%	5.1%	3.52	6.13	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	7	0	8	39	11	8	2	0%	1.1	28.2%	20.5%	7.7%	5.1%	3.52	6.75	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	3	52	264	68	50	4	8%	1.5	19.9%	21.5%	-1.6%	1.9%	6.19	5.17	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	3	52	264	68	50	4	8%	1.5	19.9%	21.5%	-1.6%	1.9%	6.19	5.17	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	3	52	264	68	50	4	8%	1.5	25.8%	18.9%	6.8%	1.5%	6.19	4.36	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	28	0	41	210	50	47	4	0%	1.5	18.3%	25.7%	-7.4%	2.4%	7.90	6.12	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	28	0	41	210	50	47	4	0%	1.5	18.3%	25.7%	-7.4%	2.4%	7.90	6.12	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	28	0	41	210	50	47	4	0%	1.5	23.8%	22.4%	1.4%	1.9%	7.90	5.37	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.6%	20.0%	-0.4%	2.8%	5.90	5.90	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	LAA	40	0	42	177	35	34	5	0%	1.1	20.0%	19.0%	1.0%	2.9%	5.76	5.78	-0.6
2029	28	MLB MLE	LAA	33	0	35	148	30	27	4	0%	1.1	20.1%	18.4%	1.7%	3.0%	5.71	5.75	-0.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	LAA	14	0	15	63	13	12	2	0%	1.1	20.0%	19.0%	1.0%	2.9%	5.76	5.78	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	LAA	20	0	21	89	18	16	3	0%	1.1	20.1%	18.4%	1.7%	3.0%	5.71	5.75	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		34	0	36	152	31	28	4	0%	1.1	20.1%	18.7%	1.4%	2.9%	5.73	5.38	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	172	155	22	0%	1.1	20.1%	18.7%	1.4%	2.9%	5.73	5.38	-2.0
Career	—	MLE		115	3	157	756	153	151	18	3%	1.4	20.2%	19.9%	0.3%	2.3%	6.08	5.20	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		146	4	200	963	195	192	23	3%	1.4	20.2%	19.9%	0.3%	2.3%	6.08	5.20	-2.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 41 IPFIP 4.97 → 6.12 (+1.15)K% 23.8% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.81%	—	×0.770	18.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	22.38%	—	×1.150	25.74%
HR / BF /BF	1.90%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.38%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.97 → 6.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 44 IPFIP 3.54 → 4.65 (+1.11)K% 30.2% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.19%	—	×0.770	23.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.45%	—	×1.150	20.07%
HR / BF /BF	1.42%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.77%

Result: FIP 3.54 → 4.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 8 IPFIP 6.67 → 7.29 (+0.62)K% 7.7% → 6.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	7.69%	—	×0.810	6.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	25.00%	—	×1.100	27.50%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷1.028	×1.200	2.25%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 6.67 → 7.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 8 IPFIP 6.13 → 8.10 (+1.96)K% 28.2% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.21%	—	×0.770	21.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.51%	—	×1.150	23.59%
HR / BF /BF	5.13%	÷0.916	×1.250	7.00%

Result: FIP 6.13 → 8.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AInland Empire 66ers · 40 IPFIP 2.81 → 3.98 (+1.17)K% 28.3% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.32%	—	×0.740	20.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.56%	—	×1.180	13.64%
HR / BF /BF	1.16%	÷0.897	×1.300	1.67%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 79).

Result: FIP 2.81 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AInland Empire 66ers · 16 IPFIP 3.52 → 5.10 (+1.58)K% 28.6% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.740	21.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.180	11.80%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷0.889	×1.300	4.18%

Result: FIP 3.52 → 5.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Max Gieg (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.90	19.6%	20.0%	2.8%	—	5.77	20.0%	1.3%	77	-0.13	—	—	—
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	85
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	83
Luis García R 2013 · 4.92 FIP	26	SU	4.92	16.7%	16.7%	2.0%	.270	3.68	20.3%	9.3%	151	-1.24	2.33	662	83
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	82
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	82
Ryan Sublette R 2024 · 5.72 FIP	25	SU	5.72	19.9%	17.5%	3.8%	.214	4.47	18.6%	5.0%	53	-1.25	3.74	203	81
Manuel Alvarez R 2022 · 5.02 FIP	26	SU	5.02	20.3%	17.1%	2.7%	.330	6.63	11.8%	-14.8%	12	+1.61	4.58	154	80
Lukas Schiraldi R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	25	SU	5.00	18.7%	19.3%	1.9%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	319	80
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	80
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	80
Jake Gozzo R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	26	SU	5.04	16.2%	17.6%	2.0%	.227	4.32	15.6%	-1.3%	32	-0.72	4.32	162	80
Andrew Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	26	SU	4.87	18.9%	18.1%	1.9%	.311	3.86	23.3%	7.7%	84	-1.01	3.56	176	80
Jacob Morris R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	25	SU	4.77	18.7%	21.1%	1.0%	.236	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	102	80
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	80
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	80
Cre Finfrock R 2022 · 6.31 FIP	26	SU	6.31	16.7%	25.2%	2.6%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	103	79
Dusty Isaacs R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	26	SU	5.26	19.3%	14.1%	3.7%	.287	3.16	26.8%	20.6%	26	-2.10	3.16	253	79
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	79
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	79
Livan Reinoso R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	15.1%	17.7%	1.5%	.229	5.67	16.1%	-2.1%	99	+0.77	4.36	219	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	19.9%	19.3%	1.11	5.81
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*