Max Gieg — OGILVIE

Max Gieg P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 25 RHP 6'5" / 230 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION41 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 148140vR 132

ERA6.07

FIP6.07

K%20.0%

BB%21.8%

K-BB%-1.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL2020

CMD4040

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	13	0	16	70	20	7	2	0%	1.2	21.1%	11.8%	9.3%	4.2%	5.06	5.10	—
2022	21	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	13	0	16	70	20	7	2	0%	1.2	28.6%	10.0%	18.6%	2.9%	5.06	3.54	—
2023	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	31	0	40	173	49	20	2	0%	1.3	21.0%	13.6%	7.3%	1.7%	4.95	3.98	—
2023	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	31	0	40	173	49	20	2	0%	1.3	21.0%	13.6%	7.3%	1.7%	4.95	3.98	—
2023	22	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	31	0	40	173	49	20	2	0%	1.3	28.3%	11.6%	16.8%	1.2%	4.95	2.80	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	7	0	8	39	11	8	2	0%	1.1	28.2%	20.5%	7.7%	5.1%	3.52	6.13	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	7	0	8	39	11	8	2	0%	1.1	28.2%	20.5%	7.7%	5.1%	3.52	6.13	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	7	0	8	39	11	8	2	0%	1.1	28.2%	20.5%	7.7%	5.1%	3.52	6.75	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	3	52	264	68	50	4	8%	1.5	19.9%	21.5%	-1.6%	1.9%	6.19	5.17	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	3	52	264	68	50	4	8%	1.5	19.9%	21.5%	-1.6%	1.9%	6.19	5.17	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	3	52	264	68	50	4	8%	1.5	25.8%	18.9%	6.8%	1.5%	6.19	4.36	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	28	0	41	210	50	47	4	0%	1.5	18.3%	25.7%	-7.4%	2.4%	7.90	6.12	—
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	28	0	41	210	50	47	4	0%	1.5	18.3%	25.7%	-7.4%	2.4%	7.90	6.12	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	LAA	28	0	41	210	50	47	4	0%	1.5	23.8%	22.4%	1.4%	1.9%	7.90	4.97	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	LAA	6	0	6	27	5	6	1	0%	1.1	20.0%	21.8%	-1.8%	2.8%	6.07	6.07	-0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	LAA	—	—	47	237	55	53	5	—	—	23.4%	22.3%	1.1%	2.0%	7.66	6.11	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	LAA	67	0	70	296	62	60	8	0%	1.0	21.1%	20.5%	0.6%	2.8%	5.85	5.82	-1.0
2028	27	MLB MLE	LAA	66	0	69	291	62	57	8	0%	1.0	21.2%	19.7%	1.6%	2.9%	5.74	5.75	-0.9
2029	28	MLB MLE	LAA	64	0	67	282	60	55	8	0%	1.0	21.2%	19.3%	1.9%	3.0%	5.72	5.76	-0.9
2030	29	MLB MLE	LAA	61	0	64	270	57	52	8	0%	1.0	21.0%	19.3%	1.8%	3.1%	5.79	5.86	-0.9
2027	26	MLB CTX	LAA	29	0	30	127	27	26	4	0%	1.0	21.1%	20.5%	0.6%	2.8%	5.85	5.82	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	LAA	41	0	43	182	39	36	5	0%	1.0	21.2%	19.7%	1.6%	2.9%	5.74	5.75	-0.6
2029	28	MLB CTX	LAA	48	0	50	211	45	41	6	0%	1.0	21.2%	19.3%	1.9%	3.0%	5.72	5.76	-0.7
2030	29	MLB CTX	LAA	50	0	52	220	46	42	7	0%	1.0	21.0%	19.3%	1.8%	3.1%	5.79	5.86	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		168	0	176	743	157	146	22	0%	1.0	21.1%	19.6%	1.5%	3.0%	5.77	5.42	-1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	179	166	25	0%	1.1	21.1%	19.6%	1.5%	3.0%	5.77	5.42	-2.0
Career	—	MLE		115	3	157	756	153	151	18	3%	1.4	20.2%	19.9%	0.3%	2.3%	6.08	5.20	-4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		146	4	200	963	195	192	23	3%	1.4	20.2%	19.9%	0.3%	2.3%	6.08	5.20	-2.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Max Gieg (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.07	20.0%	21.8%	2.8%	—	5.78	21.2%	1.3%	206	-0.29	—	—	—
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.09	18.9%	3.4%	102	-0.63	3.74	203	86
Jeff Ames R 2016 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	18.0%	16.1%	2.8%	.229	4.34	25.2%	11.2%	142	-0.83	3.85	272	85
Aroni Nina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	16.8%	20.5%	1.1%	.312	3.04	18.8%	8.7%	64	-1.86	2.68	115	83
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.19	17.7%	6.6%	90	-0.70	3.90	164	83
Lukas Schiraldi R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	25	SU	5.00	18.7%	19.3%	1.9%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	319	82
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	82
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	81
Cre Finfrock R 2022 · 6.31 FIP	26	SU	6.31	16.7%	25.2%	2.6%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	103	81
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	81
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	80
Everhett Hazelwood R 2023 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	19.0%	15.4%	4.1%	.343	9.36	17.5%	0.6%	14	+3.66	5.23	117	80
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	80
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	79
Kyle Wilcox R 2019 · 5.16 FIP	25	SU	5.16	25.1%	21.2%	2.7%	.310	5.57	25.1%	-1.5%	13	+0.41	2.78	310	79
Yordy Cabrera R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.17	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.82	3.43	159	79
Yunior Montero R 2017 · 5.21 FIP	24	SU	5.21	21.3%	17.6%	3.1%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	127	79
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	78
Leandro Linares R 2018 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	16.2%	22.0%	1.8%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	1.93	134	78
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	78
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	20.9%	20.1%	1.12	5.84
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91