Max Gieg — OGILVIE

Max Gieg P Tri-City Dust Devils

+0.0 WAR

Age 25 RHP 6'5" / 230 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2028

ERA4.96

FIP4.96

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.6%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%7.5%

IP51

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.1peak

2028

STUF5555

CTRL2020

CMD4040

K†5555

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	21	A	Inland Empire 66ers	13	0	16	70	20	7	2	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	5.06	5.14	-0.0
2023	22	A	Inland Empire 66ers	31	0	40	173	49	20	2	21.0%	13.6%	1.6%	4.95	3.95	+0.5
2024	23	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	7	0	8	39	11	8	2	—	—	—	3.52	—	—
2025	24	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	36	3	52	264	68	50	4	19.9%	21.5%	1.9%	6.19	5.17	-0.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	25	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	3	0	4	26	5	5	2	—	—	—	18.69	—	—
ROS	25	MLB	LAA	51	—	51	214	48	35	6	22.2%	16.4%	2.8%	5.20	5.20	-0.1
2026 Total	25	MLB	LAA	—	—	55	240	53	40	8	21.9%	16.7%	3.3%	6.26	4.79	+0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	26	MLB	LAA	51	—	51	214	49	33	6	22.7%	15.7%	2.8%	5.09	5.07	-0.1
2028	27	MLB	LAA	50	—	50	212	48	32	6	22.8%	15.2%	2.8%	5.03	5.03	-0.0
2029	28	MLB	LAA	49	—	49	209	48	31	6	22.8%	14.9%	2.9%	5.01	5.02	-0.0
2030	29	MLB	LAA	48	—	48	204	46	30	6	22.7%	14.9%	2.9%	5.02	5.05	-0.1
2031	30	MLB	LAA	47	—	47	198	45	30	6	22.5%	15.0%	3.0%	5.07	5.11	-0.1
2032	31	MLB	LAA	45	—	45	191	43	29	6	22.2%	15.1%	3.0%	5.14	5.18	-0.1
2033	32	MLB	LAA	44	—	44	184	40	28	6	22.0%	15.2%	3.1%	5.22	5.27	-0.2
2034	33	MLB	LAA	42	—	42	175	38	27	6	21.6%	15.4%	3.2%	5.31	5.37	-0.2
2035	34	MLB	LAA	39	—	39	166	35	26	6	21.3%	15.6%	3.3%	5.41	5.48	-0.2
2036	35	MLB	LAA	37	—	37	157	33	25	5	20.9%	15.8%	3.4%	5.52	5.60	-0.3
2037	36	MLB	LAA	35	—	35	147	30	24	5	20.5%	16.1%	3.5%	5.65	5.73	-0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			90	3	120	572	120	102	15	20.9%	17.8%	2.6%	5.91	5.00	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—			150	5	200	951	199	170	25	20.9%	17.8%	2.6%	5.91	5.00	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Max Gieg (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.20	22.2%	16.4%	2.8%	—	5.04	22.8%	7.5%	150	-0.16	—	—	—
Kevin Kopps R 2026 · 4.59 FIP	25	SW	4.59	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.54	16.5%	2.8%	182	-0.05	3.49	237	92
Luis Quiñones R 2026 · 4.78 FIP	25	SW	4.78	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.91	22.6%	10.0%	160	+0.13	3.92	306	91
Caleb Simpson R 2026 · 5.37 FIP	25	SW	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.65	197	90
Nick Ernst R 2026 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	117	90
Nolan Riggs R 2026 · 4.54 FIP	25	SW	4.54	20.7%	14.0%	2.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	89
Carlos Contreras R 2025 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	22.2%	15.6%	2.0%	.271	4.48	11.9%	2.4%	40	+0.17	4.31	107	89
Tommy Kahnle R 2026 · 4.17 FIP	25	SW	4.17	23.8%	14.8%	2.2%	.284	2.58	30.9%	21.0%	165	-1.59	1.53	433	88
Alec Barger R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	25	SW	4.45	21.5%	14.4%	2.5%	.326	4.74	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.29	3.86	242	88
Sean Isaac R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	25	SW	4.21	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	86
Fernando Baez R 2026 · 5.36 FIP	25	SW	5.36	24.3%	21.2%	2.9%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	86
Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 4.79 FIP	25	SW	4.79	21.2%	18.6%	2.0%	.329	4.39	26.4%	6.5%	85	-0.40	4.22	289	86
Preston Johnson R 2026 · 5.12 FIP	25	SU	5.12	21.1%	17.2%	2.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	104	85
Carter Loewen R 2026 · 4.26 FIP	25	SW	4.26	23.1%	15.0%	2.2%	.312	4.19	20.0%	11.9%	23	-0.07	2.67	145	85
Holt Jones R 2026 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	19.0%	15.0%	1.8%	.326	4.50	20.2%	0.2%	47	+0.11	4.39	178	85
Jake Gilbert R 2026 · 4.65 FIP	25	SW	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	103	85
Kyle Wilcox R 2026 · 5.17 FIP	25	SW	5.17	25.1%	21.2%	2.7%	.310	5.55	25.1%	-1.5%	13	+0.38	2.78	310	85
Grant Black R 2028 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.46	15.2%	3.1%	156	+1.00	4.46	215	84
Matt Lollis R 2026 · 5.00 FIP	25	SW	5.00	19.2%	14.5%	3.1%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	84
Ben Hecht R 2025 · 4.51 FIP	24	SW	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.42	155	84
Pat Light R 2026 · 4.15 FIP	25	SW	4.15	21.1%	13.1%	2.1%	.276	4.62	11.8%	-2.3%	55	+0.47	4.15	172	84

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.