Max Gieg
P
Tri-City Dust Devils
Age 25
RHP
6'5" / 230 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 153144vR 135
ERA5.99
FIP5.99
K%20.0%
BB%21.1%
K-BB%-1.2%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 107 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 13 | 0 | 16 | 70 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.1% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 4.8% | 5.06 | 5.43 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 13 | 0 | 16 | 70 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.6% | 10.0% | 18.6% | 2.9% | 5.06 | 3.54 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 31 | 0 | 40 | 173 | 49 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.0% | 13.6% | 7.3% | 1.9% | 4.95 | 4.10 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 31 | 0 | 40 | 173 | 49 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.3% | 11.6% | 16.8% | 1.2% | 4.95 | 2.80 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 7 | 0 | 8 | 39 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.2% | 20.5% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 3.52 | 6.13 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 7 | 0 | 8 | 39 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.2% | 20.5% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 3.52 | 6.75 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 3 | 52 | 264 | 68 | 50 | 4 | 8% | 1.5 | 19.9% | 21.5% | -1.6% | 1.9% | 6.19 | 5.16 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 3 | 52 | 264 | 68 | 50 | 4 | 8% | 1.5 | 25.8% | 18.9% | 6.8% | 1.5% | 6.19 | 4.36 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 24 | 0 | 37 | 191 | 46 | 43 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.5% | 25.9% | -7.3% | 2.6% | 8.20 | 6.25 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | LAA | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 59 | 62 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 21.1% | -1.2% | 2.8% | 5.99 | 5.99 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.0% | 21.1% | -1.2% | 2.8% | 5.99 | 5.99 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 107 | 487 | 105 | 105 | 12 | — | — | 21.6% | 21.7% | -0.1% | 2.5% | 6.76 | 6.08 | -0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 20.0% | 21.1% | -1.2% | 2.8% | 5.99 | 5.61 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | LAA | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 62 | 59 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 19.9% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 5.78 | 5.75 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 62 | 56 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 19.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 5.68 | 5.68 | -0.8 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 60 | 53 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 18.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 5.67 | 5.70 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | LAA | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 27 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 19.9% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 5.78 | 5.75 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 39 | 35 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 19.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 5.68 | 5.68 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 45 | 40 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 18.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 5.67 | 5.70 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 118 | 0 | 124 | 524 | 111 | 101 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 19.2% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 5.70 | 5.33 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 179 | 163 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 19.2% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 5.70 | 5.33 | +0.2 | ||
| Career | — | 111 | 3 | 153 | 737 | 150 | 146 | 19 | 3% | 1.4 | 20.4% | 19.8% | 0.5% | 2.5% | 6.10 | 5.27 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 145 | 4 | 200 | 961 | 196 | 191 | 24 | 3% | 1.4 | 20.4% | 19.8% | 0.5% | 2.5% | 6.10 | 5.27 | +0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Max Gieg (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.99 | 20.0% | 21.1% | 2.8% | — | 5.71 | 21.2% | 1.9% | 206 | -0.28 | — | — | — |
| Josh Harlow R 2025 · 5.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.71 | 17.1% | 21.3% | 2.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.52 | 107 | 86 |
| Preston Johnson R 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.04 | 21.1% | 17.2% | 2.8% | .270 | 3.47 | 23.4% | 13.9% | 42 | -1.57 | 3.47 | 146 | 85 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.06 | 18.0% | 16.1% | 2.6% | .229 | 4.27 | 25.2% | 11.2% | 142 | -0.79 | 3.89 | 272 | 85 |
| Zane Morehouse R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.86 | 19.3% | 15.8% | 2.5% | .321 | 6.20 | 18.6% | -0.4% | 17 | +1.34 | 2.62 | 116 | 85 |
| Haden Erbe R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 18.4% | 16.5% | 3.1% | .320 | 5.49 | 17.8% | 0.5% | 40 | +0.14 | 5.17 | 116 | 84 |
| Aroni Nina R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.00 | 16.8% | 20.5% | 1.3% | .312 | 3.06 | 18.8% | 8.7% | 64 | -1.94 | 2.68 | 115 | 84 |
| Tyler Bradt R 2025 · 5.09 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.09 | 19.0% | 18.7% | 2.2% | .241 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 135 | 84 |
| Lukas Schiraldi R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.06 | 18.7% | 19.3% | 2.0% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 319 | 82 |
| Andrew McInvale R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.08 | 17.6% | 15.9% | 2.6% | .324 | 7.06 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 23 | +1.98 | 4.90 | 103 | 82 |
| Ryan Sublette R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.60 | 19.9% | 17.5% | 3.6% | .214 | 4.77 | 19.0% | 3.2% | 53 | -0.83 | 3.73 | 203 | 82 |
| Caleb Simpson R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 23.7% | 17.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.98 | 23.5% | 5.1% | 71 | -1.37 | 3.28 | 197 | 82 |
| Fernando Baez R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.39 | 24.3% | 21.2% | 3.0% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 129 | 81 |
| Cre Finfrock R 2027 · 6.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 6.27 | 16.7% | 25.2% | 2.5% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 103 | 81 |
| Alejandro Torres R 2026 · 6.52 FIP | 25 | SU | 6.52 | 18.3% | 20.1% | 4.4% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 103 | 80 |
| Nick Ernst R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 80 |
| Blake Rivera R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.90 | 20.9% | 19.4% | 2.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 179 | 80 |
| Yordy Cabrera R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.43 | 15.8% | 17.2% | 2.7% | .321 | 4.31 | 13.7% | 2.7% | 140 | -1.12 | 3.48 | 159 | 80 |
| Miguel Rosario R 2025 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.84 | 16.4% | 18.6% | 1.4% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 197 | 80 |
| Matt Lollis R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.05 | 19.2% | 14.5% | 3.2% | .221 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 120 | 80 |
| Billy Seidl R 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.87 | 18.3% | 14.2% | 2.8% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 102 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 69 | 20.9% | 19.8% | 1.10 | 5.78 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Jake Diekman ('24) | 9 | 51 | 28.6% | 13.8% | 0.91 | 4.07 |