Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 0 | 19 | 85 | 25 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 19.3% | 0.1% | 2.7% | 2.84 | 5.39 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 0 | 19 | 85 | 25 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.4% | 12.9% | 16.5% | 1.2% | 2.84 | 2.89 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 61 | 266 | 86 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.7 | 24.3% | 10.9% | 13.4% | 3.1% | 3.12 | 4.15 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 61 | 266 | 86 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.7 | 32.3% | 9.4% | 22.9% | 1.5% | 3.12 | 2.36 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 65 | 279 | 77 | 35 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 21.7% | 14.2% | 7.5% | 1.5% | 4.02 | 3.87 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 65 | 279 | 77 | 35 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 27.6% | 12.5% | 15.1% | 1.1% | 4.02 | 2.95 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 60 | 26 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.8% | 13.3% | 11.5% | 0.8% | 1.64 | 3.14 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 60 | 26 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.0% | 12.6% | 16.4% | 1.0% | 1.64 | 2.78 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 59 | 238 | 81 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 32.4% | 9.9% | 22.5% | 1.7% | 2.43 | 2.56 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 59 | 238 | 81 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 34.0% | 9.7% | 24.4% | 1.7% | 2.43 | 2.41 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 0 | 60 | 256 | 80 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.5% | 10.1% | 18.4% | 3.2% | 3.28 | 3.71 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 0 | 60 | 256 | 80 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.2% | 9.8% | 21.5% | 3.1% | 3.28 | 3.41 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 66 | 0 | 69 | 285 | 65 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 6.1% | 16.0% | 2.6% | 2.99 | 3.45 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 66 | 0 | 69 | 285 | 65 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 6.3% | 16.5% | 2.8% | 2.99 | 3.50 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 72 | 0 | 67 | 278 | 57 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 20.5% | 7.2% | 13.3% | 2.1% | 2.82 | 3.45 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 72 | 0 | 67 | 278 | 57 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 20.5% | 7.2% | 13.3% | 2.2% | 2.82 | 3.46 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 39 | 0 | 38 | 157 | 35 | 11 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 7.0% | 15.3% | 3.8% | 3.82 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | BOS | 19 | 0 | 20 | 86 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 7.1% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 3.59 | 3.81 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | BOS | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 18 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 7.1% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 3.59 | 3.81 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 58 | 243 | 53 | 17 | 9 | — | — | 22.0% | 7.0% | 14.9% | 3.5% | 3.74 | 4.06 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 58 | 245 | 53 | 17 | 9 | — | — | 21.8% | 7.0% | 14.8% | 3.5% | 3.74 | 4.05 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 46 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 7.5% | 13.0% | 3.2% | 4.26 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 47 | 0 | 49 | 208 | 41 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 7.9% | 11.7% | 3.5% | 4.54 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 35 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.7% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 3.8% | 4.84 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 44 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 7.5% | 13.0% | 3.2% | 4.26 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 39 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 7.9% | 11.7% | 3.5% | 4.54 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 32 | 15 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 3.8% | 4.84 | 5.04 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 353 | 0 | 358 | 1504 | 316 | 112 | 46 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 7.5% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 3.84 | 3.94 | +6.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 197 | 0 | 200 | 840 | 176 | 63 | 26 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 7.5% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 3.84 | 3.94 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 418 | 0 | 488 | 2051 | 498 | 210 | 48 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.3% | 10.3% | 14.0% | 2.3% | 3.01 | 3.64 | +10.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 171 | 0 | 200 | 841 | 204 | 86 | 20 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.3% | 10.3% | 14.0% | 2.3% | 3.01 | 3.64 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Greg Weissert (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.10 | 20.7% | 7.1% | 2.7% | — | 4.72 | 19.6% | 11.7% | 148 | +0.62 | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 80 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 80 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 80 |
| Tony Barnette R 2027 · 3.06 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.06 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .281 | 3.28 | 23.4% | 17.0% | 84 | +0.22 | 2.63 | 144 | 80 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.79 | 21.1% | 6.4% | 3.0% | .266 | 3.41 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 29 | -0.38 | 3.40 | 295 | 79 |
| Carlos Torres R 2027 · 3.19 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.19 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 3.74 | 20.8% | 12.4% | 206 | +0.55 | 2.78 | 326 | 78 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 78 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.76 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | .240 | 5.21 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.45 | 3.03 | 120 | 78 |
| Jim Johnson R 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.64 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 185 | +0.21 | 2.51 | 251 | 77 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.40 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.69 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.29 | 2.73 | 410 | 76 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.09 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.84 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.75 | 3.09 | 148 | 76 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 76 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 76 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 76 |
| Alex Wilson R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.25 | 17.6% | 5.3% | 3.6% | .232 | 5.01 | 19.4% | 13.4% | 62 | +0.76 | 3.40 | 326 | 75 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.85 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | .283 | 4.58 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 75 |
| Fernando Salas R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.29 | 21.8% | 6.1% | 4.1% | .256 | 4.04 | 20.1% | 14.5% | 151 | -0.25 | 2.80 | 288 | 75 |
| Matt Albers R 2027 · 3.18 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.18 | 18.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.51 | 20.4% | 13.3% | 147 | +1.33 | 3.15 | 244 | 75 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 75 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 51 | 19.9% | 7.7% | 1.25 | 4.35 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Jarlín García ('22) | 5 | 61 | 19.6% | 7.8% | 1.33 | 3.79 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |