Junior Flores — OGILVIE

Junior Flores P Greensboro Grasshoppers

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 34 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.57

FIP5.57

K%18.4%

BB%16.4%

K-BB%2.1%

ROS IP35

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	16	0	18	83	25	16	1	0%	1.1	20.5%	24.1%	-3.6%	1.6%	3.50	5.28	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Orange	16	0	18	83	25	16	1	0%	1.1	30.1%	19.3%	10.8%	1.2%	3.50	3.71	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	10	0	10	39	14	4	0	0%	1.0	35.9%	10.3%	25.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.37	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Orange	10	0	10	39	14	4	0	0%	1.0	35.9%	10.3%	25.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.44	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	19	1	38	177	39	25	3	5%	2.0	15.0%	17.7%	-2.7%	1.7%	4.23	5.02	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	19	1	38	177	39	25	3	5%	2.0	15.0%	17.7%	-2.7%	1.7%	4.23	5.02	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Orange	19	1	38	177	39	25	3	5%	2.0	22.0%	14.1%	7.9%	1.7%	4.23	4.04	—
2024	22	A MLE	San Jose Giants	32	0	54	258	49	41	2	0%	1.7	14.1%	18.8%	-4.7%	1.1%	5.03	4.87	—
2024	22	A MLE	San Jose Giants	32	0	54	258	49	41	2	0%	1.7	14.1%	18.8%	-4.7%	1.1%	5.03	4.87	—
2024	22	A RAW	San Jose Giants	32	0	54	258	49	41	2	0%	1.7	19.0%	15.9%	3.1%	0.8%	5.03	4.05	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	0	11	46	10	10	0	0%	1.3	21.7%	21.7%	0.0%	0.0%	3.38	4.02	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	0	11	46	10	10	0	0%	1.3	21.7%	21.7%	0.0%	0.0%	3.38	4.02	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	0	11	46	10	10	0	0%	1.3	21.7%	21.7%	0.0%	0.0%	3.38	4.04	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	5	0	4	15	6	3	0	0%	0.8	—	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	5	0	4	15	6	3	0	0%	0.8	—	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	PIT	5	0	4	15	6	3	0	0%	0.8	40.0%	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.26	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	PIT	47	0	49	206	41	29	6	0%	1.0	19.7%	14.2%	5.4%	2.9%	5.29	5.19	-0.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	PIT	47	0	49	206	42	29	6	0%	1.0	20.3%	13.8%	6.5%	2.9%	5.14	5.09	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	PIT	20	0	21	89	17	13	3	0%	1.1	19.7%	14.2%	5.4%	2.9%	5.29	5.19	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	PIT	30	0	32	135	27	19	4	0%	1.1	20.3%	13.8%	6.5%	2.9%	5.14	5.09	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		51	0	54	226	45	32	6	0%	1.0	20.1%	14.0%	6.1%	2.9%	5.20	4.75	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	168	120	22	0%	1.1	20.1%	14.0%	6.1%	2.9%	5.20	4.75	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		90	1	134	618	110	117	7	1%	1.5	17.8%	18.9%	-1.1%	1.1%	3.95	4.62	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	1	200	920	163	174	11	1%	1.5	17.8%	18.9%	-1.1%	1.1%	3.95	4.62	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Junior Flores (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.57	18.4%	16.4%	2.9%	—	5.14	20.0%	6.0%	98	-0.43	—	—	—
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	91
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	89
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	89
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	88
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	88
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	88
Stefan Raeth R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	18.0%	15.4%	2.0%	.309	4.73	17.5%	8.3%	124	+0.11	4.51	173	87
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	87
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.09	18.9%	3.4%	102	-0.63	3.74	203	87
Yordy Cabrera R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.17	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.82	3.43	159	86
Taylor Floyd R 2022 · 4.84 FIP	24	SU	4.84	19.6%	18.4%	1.9%	.305	4.30	19.8%	10.2%	184	-0.54	3.48	359	86
Everhett Hazelwood R 2023 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	19.0%	15.4%	4.1%	.343	9.36	17.5%	0.6%	14	+3.66	5.23	117	86
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	86
Morgan McSweeney R 2022 · 5.16 FIP	24	SU	5.16	18.0%	13.9%	3.3%	.278	4.36	16.0%	6.0%	107	-0.80	3.20	213	86
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	85
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	85
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	85
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	85
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	85
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	44	19.6%	14.7%	1.11	5.31
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91