Leandro Lopez

P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

AA40-MANPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#589ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	A+TEX	5	2	13	9.00	4.33	23.4%	17.2%	—	K 18.0% · BB 19.8% · FIP 5.14
2025	23	MIX2 levels	23	22	101	2.40	2.92	28.9%	10.2%	—	K 22.7% · BB 11.6% · FIP 3.72
2026	24	AATEX	17	8	53	5.81	3.65	27.3%	11.3%	—	K 22.1% · BB 12.5% · FIP 4.47
2027PROJ	25	MLBTEX	2	2	12	4.73	4.73	22.7%	12.6%	0.1
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBTEX	8	8	48	4.79	4.78	22.8%	12.0%	0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBTEX	10	10	60	4.77	4.79	22.8%	11.8%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$1M2033Arb-3$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 2.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsPaxton Schultz (age 25) · Buck Farmer (age 25) · Nolan DeVos (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%22.7%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%10.2%

Proj IP121

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2032	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.2M
2033	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$4M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers 1	13	0	14	66	24	13	2	0%	1.1	24.7%	24.6%	0.1%	4.1%	5.02	6.37	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers 1	13	0	14	66	24	13	2	0%	1.1	36.4%	19.7%	16.7%	3.0%	5.02	4.29	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL TEX Blue	10	7	34	138	63	18	1	70%	3.4	31.0%	16.3%	14.7%	0.9%	1.83	3.03	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL TEX Blue	10	7	34	138	63	18	1	70%	3.4	45.7%	13.0%	32.6%	0.7%	1.83	1.38	—
2023	21	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	17	10	57	255	79	37	2	59%	3.4	22.9%	17.1%	5.8%	0.9%	3.32	3.85	—
2023	21	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	17	10	57	255	79	37	2	59%	3.4	31.0%	14.5%	16.5%	0.8%	3.32	2.73	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	5	2	13	64	15	11	1	40%	2.6	18.0%	19.8%	-1.7%	1.9%	9.00	5.14	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	5	2	13	64	15	11	1	40%	2.6	18.0%	19.8%	-1.7%	1.9%	9.00	5.14	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	5	2	13	64	15	11	1	40%	2.6	23.4%	17.2%	6.2%	1.6%	9.00	4.33	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	101	401	116	41	7	96%	4.4	22.7%	11.6%	11.1%	1.9%	2.40	3.72	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	101	401	116	41	7	96%	4.4	22.7%	11.6%	11.1%	1.9%	2.40	3.72	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	101	401	116	41	7	96%	4.4	28.9%	10.2%	18.7%	1.7%	2.40	2.92	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	17	8	53	238	65	27	6	47%	3.1	22.1%	12.5%	9.6%	3.0%	5.81	4.47	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	17	8	53	238	65	27	6	47%	3.1	22.1%	12.5%	9.6%	3.0%	5.81	4.47	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	17	8	53	238	65	27	6	47%	3.1	27.3%	11.3%	16.0%	2.5%	5.81	3.65	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TEX	2	2	12	51	12	6	1	100%	6.0	22.7%	12.6%	10.2%	2.9%	4.73	4.73	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TEX	17	17	100	424	97	51	12	100%	5.9	22.8%	12.0%	10.8%	2.9%	4.67	4.66	+0.9
2029	27	MLB MLE	TEX	15	15	91	383	87	45	11	100%	6.1	22.8%	11.8%	11.0%	2.9%	4.65	4.67	+0.8
2030	28	MLB MLE	TEX	14	14	84	357	81	42	11	100%	6.0	22.6%	11.7%	10.9%	3.0%	4.69	4.73	+0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	TEX	13	13	78	329	74	39	11	100%	6.0	22.4%	11.8%	10.5%	3.2%	4.78	4.85	+0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	TEX	12	12	70	297	65	36	10	100%	5.9	22.0%	12.2%	9.8%	3.4%	4.93	5.02	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	48	203	46	24	6	100%	6.0	22.8%	12.0%	10.8%	3.1%	4.79	4.78	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	60	253	58	30	8	100%	6.0	22.8%	11.8%	11.0%	3.2%	4.77	4.79	+0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	TEX	11	11	65	274	62	32	9	100%	5.9	22.6%	11.7%	10.9%	3.3%	4.82	4.86	+0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	TEX	11	11	65	274	61	33	9	100%	5.9	22.4%	11.8%	10.5%	3.4%	4.91	4.98	+0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	61	258	57	31	9	100%	6.1	22.0%	12.2%	9.8%	3.6%	5.07	5.16	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	50	299	1264	284	150	42	100%	6.0	22.5%	11.9%	10.6%	3.3%	4.87	4.54	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	190	100	28	100%	6.0	22.5%	11.9%	10.6%	3.3%	4.87	4.54	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		85	49	273	1162	273	171	23	58%	3.2	23.5%	14.7%	8.8%	1.9%	3.63	4.05	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	36	200	852	200	126	17	58%	3.2	23.5%	14.7%	8.8%	1.9%	3.63	4.05	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 53 IPFIP 3.61 → 4.47 (+0.86)K% 27.3% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.31%	—	×0.810	22.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.34%	—	×1.100	12.48%
HR / BF /BF	2.52%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.03%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.61 → 4.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hub City Spartanburgers · 66 IPFIP 2.84 → 3.60 (+0.76)K% 28.2% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.19%	—	×0.770	21.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.04%	—	×1.150	11.54%
HR / BF /BF	1.54%	÷1.215	×1.250	1.59%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 143).

Result: FIP 2.84 → 3.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 36 IPFIP 3.04 → 3.93 (+0.89)K% 30.3% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.28%	—	×0.810	24.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.56%	—	×1.100	11.62%
HR / BF /BF	2.11%	÷0.976	×1.200	2.60%

Result: FIP 3.04 → 3.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Hickory Crawdads · 13 IPFIP 4.16 → 5.14 (+0.98)K% 23.4% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.44%	—	×0.770	18.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.19%	—	×1.150	19.77%
HR / BF /BF	1.56%	÷1.014	×1.250	1.93%

Result: FIP 4.16 → 5.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADown East Wood Ducks · 57 IPFIP 2.75 → 3.85 (+1.10)K% 31.0% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.98%	—	×0.740	22.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.51%	—	×1.180	17.12%
HR / BF /BF	0.78%	÷1.082	×1.300	0.94%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 2.75 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL TEX Blue · 34 IPFIP 1.29 → 3.03 (+1.73)K% 45.7% → 31.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	45.65%	—	×0.680	31.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.04%	—	×1.250	16.30%
HR / BF /BF	0.72%	÷1.148	×1.400	0.88%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 130).

Result: FIP 1.29 → 3.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKDSL Rangers 1 · 14 IPFIP 4.19 → 6.37 (+2.19)K% 36.4% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.36%	—	×0.680	24.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.70%	—	×1.250	24.62%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.039	×1.400	4.08%

Result: FIP 4.19 → 6.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Leandro Lopez (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.68	22.7%	10.9%	276	-0.05	—	—	—
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	81
Buck Farmer R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	19.5%	8.7%	3.2%	.309	3.78	20.9%	12.5%	309	-0.51	3.16	907	81
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	79
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.40	21.6%	13.7%	145	-0.31	1.85	254	79
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	78
Logan Evans R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.8%	10.3%	2.3%	.257	4.17	17.9%	10.2%	125	+0.00	4.17	232	78
Brandon Woodruff R 2018 · 3.80 FIP	25	SP-	3.80	22.0%	9.8%	2.4%	.291	2.72	29.8%	23.7%	375	-1.08	2.68	1,247	78
Bryce Jarvis R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SP-	4.14	19.4%	10.3%	2.5%	.281	5.01	17.0%	6.5%	227	+0.87	4.14	536	77
Clay Holmes R 2018 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	20.3%	11.9%	1.2%	.338	3.63	24.0%	11.7%	136	+0.08	2.26	999	77
TJ Shook R 2023 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	21.0%	9.6%	3.6%	.273	4.02	21.6%	12.8%	192	-0.49	3.35	452	77
Jackson Nezuh R 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP-	3.89	22.5%	11.2%	2.3%	.290	4.40	21.3%	10.9%	176	+0.51	3.89	296	77
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	76
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	76
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	76
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	75
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	75
David Phelps R 2012 · 3.98 FIP	25	SW	3.98	23.2%	8.7%	3.2%	.250	3.86	18.3%	10.1%	312	-0.12	2.50	672	75
Willis Roberts R 2001 · 4.29 FIP	26	SW	4.29	16.0%	9.1%	2.5%	.296	4.18	14.9%	5.7%	126	-0.11	3.73	258	75
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	75
D.J. Houlton R 2005 · 4.85 FIP	25	SP-	4.85	15.6%	8.5%	3.6%	.297	4.74	18.6%	12.4%	28	-0.11	4.74	157	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	91	22.6%	12.0%	1.17	4.73
David West ('88-'98, 1 WAR*)	2.8	71	22.1%*	12.1%*	1.28*	4.79*
Bobby Castillo ('77-'85, 5 WAR*)	3.4	86	22.3%*	11.3%*	1.23*	4.27*
Tim Birtsas ('85-'90, -0 WAR*)	1.6	82	21.4%*	11.7%*	1.31*	4.63*
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	85	21.2%	10.9%	1.17	4.06
Rob Tejeda ('05-'11, 3 WAR*)	2.2	74	21.8%*	12.6%*	1.00*	4.23*
Britt Reames ('06)	1.1	73	20.7%	12.0%	1.32	5.28