Leandro Lopez
P
Frisco RoughRiders
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.7 · 2027
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION35 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123113vR 104
ERA4.57
FIP4.57
K%23.0%
BB%12.5%
K-BB%10.5%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rangers 1 | 13 | 0 | 14 | 66 | 24 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.7% | 24.6% | 0.1% | 3.9% | 5.02 | 6.29 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rangers 1 | 13 | 0 | 14 | 66 | 24 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 36.4% | 19.7% | 16.7% | 3.0% | 5.02 | 4.29 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL TEX Blue | 10 | 7 | 34 | 138 | 63 | 18 | 1 | 70% | 3.4 | 31.0% | 16.3% | 14.7% | 0.8% | 1.83 | 2.97 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL TEX Blue | 10 | 7 | 34 | 138 | 63 | 18 | 1 | 70% | 3.4 | 45.7% | 13.0% | 32.6% | 0.7% | 1.83 | 1.38 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 17 | 10 | 57 | 255 | 79 | 37 | 2 | 59% | 3.4 | 22.9% | 17.1% | 5.8% | 0.9% | 3.32 | 3.81 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 17 | 10 | 57 | 255 | 79 | 37 | 2 | 59% | 3.4 | 31.0% | 14.5% | 16.5% | 0.8% | 3.32 | 2.73 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 5 | 2 | 13 | 64 | 15 | 11 | 1 | 40% | 2.6 | 18.0% | 19.8% | -1.7% | 1.9% | 9.00 | 5.12 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 5 | 2 | 13 | 64 | 15 | 11 | 1 | 40% | 2.6 | 23.4% | 17.2% | 6.2% | 1.6% | 9.00 | 4.33 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 101 | 401 | 116 | 41 | 7 | 96% | 4.4 | 22.7% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 1.8% | 2.40 | 3.64 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 101 | 401 | 116 | 41 | 7 | 96% | 4.4 | 28.9% | 10.2% | 18.7% | 1.7% | 2.40 | 2.92 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 8 | 8 | 35 | 169 | 42 | 22 | 5 | 100% | 4.4 | 20.1% | 14.3% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 7.20 | 5.16 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 63 | 34 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.0% | 12.5% | 10.5% | 2.6% | 4.57 | 4.57 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TEX | 5 | 5 | 26 | 110 | 25 | 14 | 3 | 100% | 5.2 | 23.0% | 12.5% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 100 | 443 | 105 | 56 | 12 | — | — | 23.7% | 12.7% | 11.0% | 2.8% | 5.49 | 4.78 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 26 | 109 | 25 | 14 | 3 | — | — | 23.0% | 12.5% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.21 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 21 | 21 | 123 | 518 | 121 | 59 | 14 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.47 | 4.42 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 20 | 20 | 123 | 518 | 121 | 57 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.4% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 2.7% | 4.41 | 4.39 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 20 | 20 | 121 | 511 | 119 | 56 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.3% | 11.0% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.42 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 20 | 20 | 117 | 496 | 115 | 55 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.1% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.50 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 19 | 19 | 112 | 473 | 108 | 53 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.9% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.63 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 18 | 18 | 105 | 445 | 100 | 51 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.71 | 4.80 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 14 | 14 | 80 | 338 | 79 | 38 | 9 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.49 | 4.44 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 16 | 16 | 96 | 405 | 95 | 45 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.4% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 2.7% | 4.43 | 4.41 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 17 | 17 | 103 | 435 | 101 | 48 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.3% | 11.0% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 4.43 | 4.44 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 17 | 17 | 104 | 439 | 102 | 48 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.1% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.52 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 17 | 17 | 102 | 431 | 99 | 48 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.65 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 16 | 16 | 97 | 410 | 92 | 47 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 3.3% | 4.73 | 4.82 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 103 | 103 | 607 | 2562 | 591 | 288 | 74 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.1% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.17 | +8.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 195 | 95 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.1% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.17 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 76 | 49 | 255 | 1093 | 254 | 166 | 20 | 64% | 3.4 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 8.1% | 1.9% | 3.67 | 4.08 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 38 | 200 | 857 | 199 | 130 | 16 | 64% | 3.4 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 8.1% | 1.9% | 3.67 | 4.08 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Leandro Lopez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.57 | 23.0% | 12.5% | 2.6% | — | 4.41 | 23.3% | 12.2% | 367 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.37 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.01 | 3.42 | 237 | 84 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.37 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 143 | +0.50 | 3.87 | 247 | 83 |
| Ricky Castro R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 82 |
| Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 82 |
| Matt Ball R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 21.3% | 12.6% | 3.2% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 312 | 81 |
| Sean Mooney R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.82 | 24.7% | 13.5% | 3.8% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 102 | 81 |
| Drew Rasmussen R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.62 | 24.6% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .312 | 3.26 | 22.7% | 16.2% | 237 | -0.36 | 1.21 | 621 | 80 |
| David Lebron R 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.6% | .336 | 5.07 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +0.89 | 4.18 | 144 | 80 |
| Houston Roth R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.40 | 19.3% | 11.2% | 2.7% | .306 | 4.83 | 21.2% | 8.3% | 168 | +0.43 | 3.57 | 389 | 79 |
| Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 1.8% | .258 | 4.83 | 15.4% | -0.2% | 44 | +0.57 | 4.26 | 151 | 79 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2025 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.55 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.24 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 143 | -0.31 | 3.72 | 283 | 79 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.64 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 3.9% | .261 | 4.28 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 173 | -0.36 | 3.41 | 368 | 79 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | .300 | 3.74 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 107 | 79 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .344 | 5.03 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.07 | 3.58 | 426 | 79 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .309 | 3.63 | 21.4% | 13.2% | 123 | -0.14 | 1.87 | 232 | 79 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 79 |
| Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .282 | 9.58 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.60 | 4.98 | 105 | 78 |
| Jake Wong R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.86 | 19.5% | 11.9% | 1.7% | .328 | 6.58 | 17.5% | 5.7% | 68 | +2.72 | 3.86 | 278 | 78 |
| Jackson Finley R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.04 | 18.0% | 12.8% | 1.5% | .361 | 3.85 | 20.7% | 11.4% | 49 | -0.19 | 3.85 | 132 | 78 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 112 | 23.1% | 11.3% | 1.10 | 4.51 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |
| Gio Gonzalez ('20) | 6 | 141 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 0.85 | 3.85 |
| Jimmy Nelson ('21) | 5 | 117 | 22.2% | 9.1% | 0.97 | 4.08 |
| Aaron Sanchez ('22) | 7 | 93 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 0.98 | 4.32 |