Leandro Lopez — OGILVIE

Leandro Lopez P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.1 · 2027 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.64

FIP4.64

K%23.0%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%10.1%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL—50

CMD4045

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$7M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers 1	13	0	14	66	24	13	2	0%	1.1	24.7%	24.6%	0.1%	4.1%	5.02	6.37	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers 1	13	0	14	66	24	13	2	0%	1.1	36.4%	19.7%	16.7%	3.0%	5.02	4.29	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL TEX Blue	10	7	34	138	63	18	1	70%	3.4	31.0%	16.3%	14.7%	0.9%	1.83	3.03	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL TEX Blue	10	7	34	138	63	18	1	70%	3.4	45.7%	13.0%	32.6%	0.7%	1.83	1.38	—
2023	21	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	17	10	57	255	79	37	2	59%	3.4	22.9%	17.1%	5.8%	0.9%	3.32	3.85	—
2023	21	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	17	10	57	255	79	37	2	59%	3.4	22.9%	17.1%	5.8%	0.9%	3.32	3.85	—
2023	21	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	17	10	57	255	79	37	2	59%	3.4	31.0%	14.5%	16.5%	0.8%	3.32	2.73	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	5	2	13	64	15	11	1	40%	2.6	18.0%	19.8%	-1.7%	1.9%	9.00	5.14	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	5	2	13	64	15	11	1	40%	2.6	18.0%	19.8%	-1.7%	1.9%	9.00	5.14	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	5	2	13	64	15	11	1	40%	2.6	23.4%	17.2%	6.2%	1.6%	9.00	4.33	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	101	401	116	41	7	96%	4.4	22.7%	11.6%	11.1%	1.9%	2.40	3.72	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	101	401	116	41	7	96%	4.4	22.7%	11.6%	11.1%	1.9%	2.40	3.72	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	101	401	116	41	7	96%	4.4	28.9%	10.2%	18.7%	1.7%	2.40	2.92	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	17	8	53	238	65	27	6	47%	3.1	22.1%	12.5%	9.6%	3.0%	5.81	4.47	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	17	8	53	238	65	27	6	47%	3.1	22.1%	12.5%	9.6%	3.0%	5.81	4.47	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	TEX	17	8	53	238	65	27	6	47%	3.1	27.3%	11.3%	16.0%	2.5%	5.81	3.61	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	TEX	10	0	10	43	10	6	1	0%	1.0	23.0%	12.9%	10.1%	2.7%	4.64	4.64	-0.0
ROS	24	MLB CTX	TEX	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	23.0%	12.9%	10.1%	2.9%	4.75	4.75	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	63	281	75	33	7	—	—	26.6%	11.6%	15.1%	2.5%	5.62	4.50	+0.1
FULL	24	MLB A+C	TEX	—	—	1	4	1	1	0	—	—	23.0%	12.9%	10.1%	2.9%	4.75	4.37	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TEX	21	21	123	518	121	61	14	100%	5.8	23.3%	11.7%	11.6%	2.7%	4.53	4.48	+0.6
2028	26	MLB MLE	TEX	20	20	123	518	121	59	14	100%	6.1	23.4%	11.3%	12.0%	2.7%	4.47	4.44	+0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	TEX	20	20	121	511	119	57	14	100%	6.0	23.3%	11.2%	12.0%	2.8%	4.46	4.47	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	TEX	20	20	117	496	115	56	14	100%	5.9	23.1%	11.3%	11.8%	2.9%	4.51	4.54	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	TEX	19	19	112	473	108	55	14	100%	5.9	22.9%	11.5%	11.4%	3.0%	4.61	4.67	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	TEX	18	18	105	445	100	53	14	100%	5.9	22.5%	11.8%	10.7%	3.2%	4.76	4.85	+0.1
2033	31	MLB MLE	TEX	16	16	98	415	92	51	14	100%	6.1	22.1%	12.2%	10.0%	3.5%	4.94	5.05	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	59	249	58	29	7	100%	5.9	23.3%	11.7%	11.6%	2.9%	4.64	4.59	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	TEX	14	14	85	359	84	41	10	100%	6.1	23.4%	11.3%	12.0%	2.9%	4.58	4.55	+0.5
2029	27	MLB CTX	TEX	16	16	96	405	94	46	12	100%	6.0	23.3%	11.2%	12.0%	3.0%	4.57	4.58	+0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	TEX	17	17	100	422	98	48	13	100%	5.9	23.1%	11.3%	11.8%	3.1%	4.63	4.66	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	TEX	16	16	99	418	96	48	14	100%	6.2	22.9%	11.5%	11.4%	3.3%	4.74	4.80	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	TEX	16	16	95	401	90	47	14	100%	5.9	22.5%	11.8%	10.7%	3.5%	4.89	4.98	+0.1
2033	31	MLB CTX	TEX	15	15	90	380	84	46	14	100%	6.0	22.1%	12.2%	10.0%	3.7%	5.08	5.19	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		105	104	626	2642	606	306	85	99%	6.0	22.9%	11.6%	11.3%	3.2%	4.74	4.40	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	844	194	98	27	99%	5.9	22.9%	11.6%	11.3%	3.2%	4.74	4.40	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		85	49	273	1162	273	171	23	58%	3.2	23.5%	14.7%	8.8%	1.9%	3.63	4.05	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	36	200	852	200	126	17	58%	3.2	23.5%	14.7%	8.8%	1.9%	3.63	4.05	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Leandro Lopez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	23.0%	12.9%	2.7%	—	4.46	23.3%	11.9%	367	-0.18	—	—	—
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	85
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	84
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	81
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2015 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	18.8%	10.2%	4.1%	.327	4.01	23.2%	13.0%	155	-1.05	2.64	315	81
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	81
Houston Roth R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP-	4.44	19.3%	11.2%	2.8%	.306	5.02	21.0%	8.4%	168	+0.58	3.79	406	80
Chase Silseth R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SP-	3.80	23.8%	10.8%	2.4%	.264	4.24	20.6%	8.1%	122	+0.44	3.30	332	80
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	79
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	79
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	79
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	79
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	79
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	5.00	17.7%	4.6%	131	-0.27	4.34	382	79
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	79
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	78
Aaron Brown R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP-	3.98	19.8%	8.8%	2.6%	.337	5.89	16.8%	8.8%	186	+1.91	3.98	418	78
Matt Ball R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP-	4.72	21.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	312	78
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	77
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	77
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	114	23.0%	11.7%	1.13	4.60
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67