Clay Holmes
P
New York Mets
Age 33
RHP
6'5" / 245 lbs
MLB
peak 0.6 · 2026
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION149 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA3.35
FIP3.50
xFIP4.13
SIERA4.33
K%20.7%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%11.9%
IP149
K†5050
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
FB Velo
p5194.6
Whiff%
p3523.1%
K%
p1015.8%
xwOBA vs
p390.325
FB+3.4 (51%)
CH+1.5 (14%)
SL+0.6 (18%)
SI (50%)
CU (9%)
CT-0.7 (8%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Bradenton Marauders | 9 | 9 | 36 | 149 | 26 | 8 | 0 | 12.8% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 2.48 | 2.81 | +0.7 |
| 2016 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | 26 | 26 | 136 | 597 | 101 | 63 | 10 | 13.7% | 11.6% | 1.9% | 4.22 | 4.48 | +1.5 |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 25 | 24 | 113 | 475 | 99 | 59 | 4 | 18.3% | 13.0% | 1.3% | 3.36 | 3.93 | +1.9 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 34 | 21 | 128 | 560 | 129 | 62 | 6 | 20.3% | 11.9% | 1.1% | 4.02 | 3.52 | +2.8 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 47 | 0 | 70 | 339 | 72 | 50 | 6 | 21.1% | 15.5% | 2.0% | 5.81 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.69 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | New York Yankees | 69 | 0 | 70 | 292 | 78 | 27 | 5 | 26.7% | 9.2% | 1.6% | 3.60 | 2.89 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | New York Yankees | 62 | 0 | 64 | 260 | 65 | 18 | 2 | 25.0% | 6.9% | 0.7% | 2.54 | 2.26 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | New York Yankees | 66 | 0 | 63 | 262 | 71 | 23 | 2 | 27.1% | 8.8% | 0.7% | 2.86 | 2.31 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | New York Yankees | 67 | 0 | 63 | 271 | 68 | 21 | 4 | 25.1% | 7.7% | 1.4% | 3.14 | 2.72 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | New York Mets | 33 | 31 | 166 | 708 | 129 | 66 | 14 | 18.2% | 9.3% | 2.0% | 3.53 | 3.83 | +3.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | New York Mets | 9 | 9 | 53 | 215 | 45 | 18 | 3 | 20.9% | 8.4% | 1.4% | 2.39 | 3.16 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | NYM | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 42 | 18 | 4 | 20.7% | 8.8% | 1.9% | 3.35 | 3.50 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 33 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 100 | 416 | 87 | 36 | 7 | 20.8% | 8.6% | 1.6% | 2.85 | 3.32 | +2.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 25 | 25 | 136 | 573 | 113 | 53 | 13 | 19.7% | 9.3% | 2.2% | 4.01 | 4.20 | +1.9 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 22 | 22 | 122 | 514 | 97 | 51 | 13 | 18.8% | 9.8% | 2.5% | 4.32 | 4.53 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 20 | 20 | 108 | 455 | 81 | 48 | 13 | 17.8% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.67 | 4.90 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 448 | 120 | 962 | 4134 | 830 | 433 | 60 | 20.1% | 10.5% | 1.5% | 3.60 | 3.53 | +21.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 93 | 25 | 200 | 859 | 173 | 90 | 12 | 20.1% | 10.5% | 1.5% | 3.60 | 3.53 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Clay Holmes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.06 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 2.1% | — | 4.52 | 18.8% | 9.0% | 365 | +0.46 | — | — | — |
| Manuel Flores R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.08 | 17.1% | 7.4% | 2.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 515 | 63 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.70 | 15.2% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .262 | 4.34 | 16.2% | 8.2% | 114 | +0.64 | 3.70 | 240 | 62 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.19 | 15.6% | 6.0% | 1.2% | .277 | 4.31 | 17.5% | 9.4% | 148 | +1.12 | 3.19 | 485 | 62 |
| Jose Oyervides R 2026 · 2.98 FIP | 33 | SP- | 2.98 | 19.1% | 6.2% | 1.3% | .333 | 4.17 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 184 | +1.19 | 2.98 | 407 | 61 |
| Clay Buchholz R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.50 | 19.0% | 6.4% | 2.2% | .254 | 5.36 | 15.4% | 9.5% | 59 | +1.86 | 2.49 | 433 | 59 |
| Dillon Gee R 2024 · 3.88 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.88 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 2.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 380 | 59 |
| Matt Garza R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.74 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 365 | 58 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.03 | 18.7% | 9.5% | 4.2% | .278 | 5.32 | 16.9% | 6.9% | 252 | +0.29 | 3.69 | 521 | 57 |
| Mitch Talbot R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.70 | 13.7% | 5.6% | 1.9% | .281 | 5.05 | 13.2% | 8.9% | 59 | +1.35 | 3.70 | 162 | 57 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 56 |
| Jonathan Castellanos R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.79 | 12.2% | 6.5% | 1.6% | .313 | 4.27 | 11.8% | 3.5% | 216 | +0.48 | 3.56 | 394 | 56 |
| Ian Kennedy R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.58 | 20.3% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .296 | 4.03 | 26.7% | 20.7% | 134 | -0.55 | 2.87 | 864 | 55 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.79 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.9% | .270 | 4.53 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.74 | 3.79 | 264 | 55 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2024 · 4.80 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.3% | 8.1% | 3.8% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 283 | 55 |
| Joe Blanton R 2027 · 3.30 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.30 | 22.4% | 4.6% | 2.7% | .272 | 3.78 | 23.5% | 17.0% | 124 | +0.48 | 3.13 | 240 | 54 |
| Jerome Williams R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | .326 | 5.94 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 74 | +1.15 | 4.79 | 195 | 53 |
| Leo Medrano R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.34 | 11.0% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 222 | 53 |
| Jason Berken R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.31 | 11.5% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 219 | 53 |
| Edgar Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.91 | 10.2% | 5.3% | 1.8% | .285 | 3.94 | 12.0% | 6.0% | 207 | +0.03 | 3.18 | 450 | 53 |
| Tom Koehler R 2024 · 4.71 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.71 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 474 | 53 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.