Clay Holmes
P
New York Mets
+2.0
WAR
Age 33
RHP
6'5" / 245 lbs
MLB
Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 2.0 · 2026
ERA3.75
FIP4.05
xFIP4.13
SIERA4.33
K%20.1%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%11.0%
IP149
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.0peak
2026
K†5050
FB Velo
p5194.6
Whiff%
p3523.1%
K%
p1015.8%
xwOBA vs
p390.325
FB+3.4 (51%)
CH+1.5 (14%)
SL+0.6 (17%)
SI (51%)
CU (9%)
CT-0.7 (8%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Bradenton Marauders | 9 | 9 | 36 | 149 | 26 | 8 | 0 | 12.8% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 2.48 | 2.81 | +0.9 |
| 2016 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | 26 | 26 | 136 | 597 | 101 | 63 | 10 | 13.7% | 11.6% | 2.0% | 4.22 | 4.50 | +1.2 |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 25 | 24 | 113 | 475 | 99 | 59 | 4 | 18.3% | 13.0% | 1.0% | 3.36 | 3.77 | +1.9 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 34 | 21 | 128 | 560 | 129 | 62 | 6 | 20.3% | 11.9% | 1.2% | 4.02 | 3.54 | +2.5 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 47 | 0 | 70 | 339 | 72 | 50 | 6 | 21.1% | 15.5% | 2.1% | 5.81 | 4.41 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | New York Yankees | 69 | 0 | 70 | 292 | 78 | 27 | 5 | 26.7% | 9.2% | 1.7% | 3.60 | 2.96 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | New York Yankees | 62 | 0 | 64 | 260 | 65 | 18 | 2 | 25.0% | 6.9% | 0.7% | 2.54 | 2.27 | +2.0 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | New York Yankees | 66 | 0 | 63 | 262 | 71 | 23 | 2 | 27.1% | 8.8% | 0.7% | 2.86 | 2.30 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | New York Yankees | 67 | 0 | 63 | 271 | 68 | 21 | 4 | 25.1% | 7.7% | 1.4% | 3.14 | 2.75 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | New York Mets | 33 | 31 | 166 | 708 | 129 | 66 | 14 | 18.2% | 9.3% | 1.9% | 3.53 | 3.79 | +2.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | New York Mets | 4 | 4 | 23 | 93 | 16 | 9 | 2 | 17.2% | 9.7% | 2.2% | 1.96 | 4.05 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | PIT | 21 | 21 | 116 | 489 | 96 | 45 | 10 | 19.6% | 9.2% | 2.1% | 3.45 | 3.76 | +2.0 |
| 2026 Total | 33 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 139 | 582 | 112 | 54 | 12 | 19.2% | 9.3% | 2.1% | 3.20 | 3.81 | +2.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 22 | 22 | 122 | 517 | 98 | 49 | 11 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.2% | 4.10 | 4.28 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 20 | 20 | 107 | 453 | 82 | 44 | 10 | 18.1% | 9.6% | 2.3% | 4.30 | 4.43 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | PIT | 17 | 17 | 93 | 394 | 68 | 39 | 10 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 2.4% | 4.47 | 4.59 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 37 | MLB | PIT | 15 | 15 | 81 | 340 | 56 | 35 | 9 | 16.6% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 4.65 | 4.77 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 38 | MLB | PIT | 13 | 13 | 69 | 291 | 52 | 28 | 8 | 17.7% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.67 | 4.68 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 443 | 115 | 932 | 4012 | 801 | 424 | 58 | 20.0% | 10.6% | 1.5% | 3.63 | 3.55 | +18.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 95 | 25 | 200 | 861 | 172 | 91 | 12 | 20.0% | 10.6% | 1.5% | 3.63 | 3.55 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Clay Holmes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.02 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 2.1% | — | 4.42 | 18.2% | 8.6% | 323 | +0.40 | — | — | — |
| Matt Buschmann R 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.83 | 12.8% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 277 | 66 |
| Kyle Davies R 2024 · 3.55 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.55 | 13.8% | 6.1% | 1.5% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 153 | 66 |
| Alfredo Simon R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.65 | 14.3% | 8.2% | 3.1% | .289 | 5.60 | 12.3% | 2.7% | 74 | +0.95 | 4.65 | 261 | 65 |
| Miguel González R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.60 | 14.6% | 7.7% | 3.2% | .285 | 6.86 | 7.6% | -1.5% | 12 | +2.26 | 3.76 | 469 | 64 |
| Yovani Gallardo R 2025 · 4.28 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.28 | 14.9% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 577 | 64 |
| Cory Riordan R 2023 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.21 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 3.1% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 154 | 62 |
| Chris Leroux R 2025 · 4.06 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.06 | 13.5% | 8.0% | 2.0% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 219 | 61 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.26 | 7.6% | 6.1% | 1.9% | .354 | 4.56 | 13.0% | 5.2% | 53 | +0.30 | 4.26 | 183 | 61 |
| Daniel McCutchen R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.81 | 10.8% | 5.9% | 3.4% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.32 | 287 | 60 |
| Edinson Volquez R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.47 | 16.3% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .315 | 4.38 | 19.4% | 6.2% | 108 | -0.09 | 3.69 | 498 | 60 |
| Donovan Hand R 2024 · 4.54 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.54 | 12.5% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 237 | 59 |
| Jake Peavy R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.07 | 17.3% | 5.7% | 3.1% | .278 | 4.39 | 19.6% | 12.9% | 119 | +0.32 | 4.07 | 262 | 57 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano R 2028 · 4.89 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.89 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | .279 | 5.58 | 19.0% | 14.2% | 17 | +0.69 | 4.89 | 174 | 56 |
| Jason Hammel R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.51 | 20.8% | 7.7% | 4.0% | .262 | 4.24 | 17.1% | 11.3% | 307 | -0.27 | 3.34 | 645 | 56 |
| Garrett Richards R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.46 | 18.6% | 9.6% | 3.1% | .328 | 3.23 | 19.5% | 12.5% | 43 | -1.23 | 2.27 | 577 | 55 |
| Jake Arrieta R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.21 | 18.5% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .308 | 5.12 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 143 | +0.91 | 2.06 | 1,046 | 55 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2029 · 5.01 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.01 | 16.2% | 6.0% | 4.6% | .309 | 5.01 | 14.8% | 8.8% | 59 | +0.00 | 5.01 | 211 | 54 |
| Dylan Axelrod R 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.31 | 13.7% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 251 | 54 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.71 | 18.7% | 4.2% | 3.0% | .285 | 4.61 | 17.3% | 9.6% | 253 | +0.90 | 3.71 | 393 | 54 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 33 | SP | 5.00 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 469 | 53 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2018
Service 7.180 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2027
First FA Year 2028
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $13M | +2.0 | $16M | +$3M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $13M | +1.4 | $12M | -$1M |
| Totals | $25M | $28M | +$2M | ||