Xavier Rivas
P
Somerset Patriots
+0.5
WAR
Age 24
LHP
6'4" / 235 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.2 · 2029
ERA4.54
FIP4.54
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.6%
BB%11.6%
K-BB%12.0%
IP85
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2029
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 19 | 18 | 85 | 361 | 113 | 50 | 6 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 2.4% | 3.37 | 4.54 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 2 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 7 | 7 | 1 | — | — | — | 10.38 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYY | 16 | 16 | 85 | 360 | 85 | 42 | 10 | 23.6% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 90 | 384 | 92 | 49 | 11 | 24.0% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.82 | 4.32 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 18 | 18 | 98 | 415 | 99 | 44 | 12 | 23.8% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.39 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 19 | 19 | 105 | 445 | 106 | 46 | 13 | 23.9% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.36 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 20 | 20 | 109 | 459 | 109 | 47 | 13 | 23.8% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.36 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 20 | 20 | 109 | 460 | 109 | 47 | 14 | 23.7% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.39 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 19 | 19 | 106 | 450 | 106 | 46 | 13 | 23.6% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.43 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 19 | 19 | 103 | 436 | 102 | 45 | 13 | 23.4% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.49 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 18 | 18 | 100 | 421 | 97 | 44 | 13 | 23.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.57 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 92 | 43 | 13 | 22.9% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.66 | +0.7 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 17 | 17 | 91 | 386 | 87 | 42 | 13 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 4.70 | 4.75 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 81 | 40 | 12 | 22.2% | 11.0% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.86 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | NYY | 15 | 15 | 82 | 345 | 75 | 39 | 12 | 21.8% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 4.91 | 4.98 | +0.1 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | NYY | 14 | 14 | 76 | 323 | 76 | 35 | 12 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 4.87 | 4.85 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | NYY | 13 | 13 | 71 | 300 | 69 | 33 | 11 | 22.9% | 11.0% | 3.8% | 4.94 | 4.99 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 21 | 19 | 90 | 385 | 91 | 66 | 10 | 23.5% | 17.2% | 2.5% | 3.71 | 4.67 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 42 | 200 | 859 | 203 | 147 | 22 | 23.5% | 17.2% | 2.5% | 3.71 | 4.67 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Xavier Rivas (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.54 | 23.6% | 11.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.37 | 23.8% | 13.5% | 312 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.62 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.28 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.34 | 2.32 | 304 | 87 |
| Jack Choate L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.27 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 2.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 282 | 87 |
| Ismael Guillón L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.36 | 24.9% | 12.5% | 3.2% | .206 | 4.44 | 20.1% | 6.0% | 100 | +0.08 | 4.35 | 193 | 87 |
| Damon Jones L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.69 | 25.9% | 13.8% | 1.9% | .266 | 4.21 | 25.5% | 7.4% | 41 | +0.52 | 3.69 | 269 | 86 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 5.75 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.02 | 3.65 | 203 | 85 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .315 | 4.79 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | +0.06 | 4.73 | 154 | 85 |
| Tate Kuehner L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 21.5% | 13.8% | 1.5% | .295 | 2.85 | 16.8% | 7.5% | 16 | -1.02 | 2.85 | 221 | 85 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.77 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.46 | 3.58 | 205 | 84 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.85 | 24.0% | 13.7% | 1.9% | .240 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 191 | 84 |
| Hunter Owen L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 84 |
| Max Fried L 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.52 | 24.6% | 11.9% | 1.8% | .326 | 3.17 | 23.9% | 17.4% | 387 | -0.35 | 2.46 | 1,369 | 81 |
| Sam Garcia L 2025 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 81 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.83 | 21.5% | 13.6% | 3.3% | .269 | 3.87 | 19.2% | 6.4% | 83 | -0.96 | 3.87 | 236 | 81 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2024 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 81 |
| Zack Thompson L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.74 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .243 | 4.67 | 23.7% | 9.6% | 208 | +0.93 | 2.03 | 402 | 80 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2025 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 80 |
| Nick Sando L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.16 | 20.6% | 12.7% | 2.2% | .251 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 154 | 80 |
| Will Dion L 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.16 | 19.7% | 10.9% | 4.3% | .309 | 3.76 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 99 | -1.40 | 3.39 | 448 | 78 |
| Tommy Henry L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.12 | 22.2% | 11.8% | 4.4% | .327 | 4.53 | 18.9% | 8.8% | 417 | -0.59 | 4.43 | 587 | 78 |
| Shane Drohan L 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.33 | 20.1% | 13.8% | 4.0% | .308 | 3.13 | 28.9% | 17.7% | 59 | -2.20 | 2.89 | 400 | 78 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.2 | $10M | +$10M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.8 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.7 | $4M | +$1M |
| Totals | $9M | $41M | +$32M | ||