Xavier Rivas
P
Somerset Patriots
Age 24
LHP
6'4" / 235 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.7 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION64 act + 69 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116125vR 134
ERA5.10
FIP5.10
K%24.5%
BB%16.1%
K-BB%8.4%
ROS IP69
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 134 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 18 | 85 | 361 | 113 | 50 | 6 | 95% | 4.5 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 3.37 | 4.87 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 18 | 85 | 361 | 113 | 50 | 6 | 95% | 4.5 | 31.3% | 13.9% | 17.5% | 1.7% | 3.37 | 3.12 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 16 | 12 | 64 | 265 | 94 | 32 | 12 | 75% | 4.0 | 28.7% | 13.3% | 15.4% | 5.4% | 4.20 | 5.34 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYY | 12 | 12 | 69 | 293 | 72 | 47 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.5% | 16.1% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 5.10 | 5.10 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYY | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 16.1% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 5.16 | 5.16 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 134 | 558 | 166 | 79 | 21 | — | — | 29.7% | 14.2% | 15.5% | 3.7% | 4.67 | 5.21 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 24.5% | 16.1% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 5.16 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 19 | 19 | 109 | 461 | 114 | 66 | 14 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.7% | 14.3% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.91 | 4.84 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 20 | 20 | 121 | 511 | 126 | 70 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.7% | 13.8% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.81 | 4.77 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 20 | 20 | 119 | 504 | 124 | 68 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.6% | 13.6% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.79 | 4.79 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 19 | 19 | 116 | 489 | 119 | 66 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.4% | 13.6% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.82 | 4.86 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 18 | 18 | 110 | 467 | 113 | 64 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.1% | 13.8% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.92 | 4.99 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 17 | 17 | 104 | 439 | 104 | 62 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.8% | 14.1% | 9.7% | 3.5% | 5.07 | 5.16 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 16 | 16 | 97 | 409 | 96 | 59 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.4% | 14.4% | 9.0% | 3.7% | 5.25 | 5.37 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 50 | 29 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.7% | 14.3% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.97 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 14 | 14 | 81 | 342 | 85 | 47 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.7% | 13.8% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 4.87 | 4.83 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 16 | 16 | 93 | 393 | 97 | 53 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.6% | 13.6% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 4.85 | 4.85 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 16 | 16 | 98 | 414 | 101 | 56 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.4% | 13.6% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 4.88 | 4.92 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 16 | 16 | 97 | 410 | 99 | 56 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.1% | 13.8% | 10.4% | 3.4% | 4.99 | 5.06 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 16 | 16 | 93 | 393 | 93 | 55 | 14 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.8% | 14.1% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 5.14 | 5.23 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 15 | 15 | 89 | 376 | 88 | 54 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.4% | 14.4% | 9.0% | 3.8% | 5.33 | 5.45 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 100 | 100 | 599 | 2531 | 613 | 352 | 85 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.2% | 13.9% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 5.01 | 4.67 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 205 | 117 | 28 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.2% | 13.9% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 5.01 | 4.67 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 35 | 30 | 150 | 626 | 160 | 94 | 25 | 86% | 4.3 | 25.5% | 15.1% | 10.4% | 4.0% | 3.73 | 5.07 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 40 | 200 | 837 | 213 | 126 | 34 | 86% | 4.3 | 25.5% | 15.1% | 10.4% | 4.0% | 3.73 | 5.07 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Xavier Rivas (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.10 | 24.5% | 16.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.80 | 24.7% | 10.8% | 350 | -0.30 | — | — | — |
| Jack Choate L 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.11 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 2.4% | .317 | 3.84 | 24.2% | 6.1% | 32 | -0.27 | 2.75 | 315 | 80 |
| Rio Britton L 2025 · 4.77 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.77 | 22.0% | 15.8% | 2.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 128 | 79 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.83 | 21.5% | 13.6% | 3.3% | .269 | 4.13 | 20.5% | 7.4% | 96 | -0.70 | 3.84 | 249 | 78 |
| Dante Biasi L 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.06 | 18.7% | 15.9% | 2.8% | .288 | 7.16 | 20.1% | 1.7% | 69 | +2.10 | 4.88 | 224 | 77 |
| Shane Drohan L 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.30 | 20.1% | 13.8% | 3.9% | .308 | 3.29 | 25.5% | 16.3% | 142 | -2.01 | 2.91 | 484 | 77 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.25 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.75 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.50 | 3.42 | 205 | 76 |
| Luis De La Torre L 2024 · 5.47 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.47 | 22.7% | 20.1% | 3.2% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 173 | 75 |
| Scott Moss L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.13 | 23.7% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .291 | 4.10 | 26.3% | 10.1% | 20 | -0.03 | 3.68 | 457 | 75 |
| Evan Lee L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.00 | 24.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .333 | 4.48 | 21.0% | 2.7% | 52 | +0.48 | 3.84 | 129 | 74 |
| Kevin Smith L 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.50 | 23.8% | 16.5% | 4.2% | .296 | 6.28 | 17.5% | 1.3% | 48 | +0.78 | 3.19 | 248 | 74 |
| Keegan Akin L 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.32 | 22.9% | 12.7% | 2.8% | .329 | 3.96 | 22.3% | 14.5% | 202 | -0.36 | 2.54 | 743 | 73 |
| Will Dion L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.01 | 19.7% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .309 | 3.25 | 22.6% | 14.9% | 148 | -1.76 | 2.44 | 496 | 73 |
| Zach Thornton L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 221 | 72 |
| Quinn Mathews L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.71 | 22.3% | 18.4% | 2.1% | .298 | 5.07 | 26.2% | 10.7% | 79 | +0.36 | 2.73 | 316 | 72 |
| Caden Grice L 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.28 | 17.3% | 15.5% | 3.1% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 72 |
| Cody Reed L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 1.8% | .301 | 3.89 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 181 | -0.39 | 2.93 | 572 | 72 |
| Braden Davis L 2025 · 5.30 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.30 | 21.5% | 15.6% | 3.7% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 183 | 72 |
| Ryan Ramsey L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 18.5% | 11.4% | 2.4% | .326 | 5.09 | 17.5% | 5.5% | 76 | +0.78 | 2.69 | 318 | 72 |
| Brett Adcock L 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.22 | 17.4% | 13.6% | 3.4% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 301 | 71 |
| Tommy Henry L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.80 | 22.2% | 11.8% | 3.8% | .327 | 4.46 | 18.9% | 8.8% | 417 | -0.34 | 4.33 | 629 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 108 | 24.3% | 14.1% | 1.23 | 4.95 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Chad Kuhl ('24) | 8 | 84 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 1.31 | 4.98 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |