Xavier Rivas — OGILVIE

Xavier Rivas P Somerset Patriots

Age 24 LHP 6'4" / 235 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION103 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116124vR 132

ERA5.22

FIP5.22

K%24.5%

BB%17.4%

K-BB%7.0%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 111 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4060

CTRL2540

CMD3535

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	18	85	361	113	50	6	95%	4.5	23.2%	16.4%	6.8%	2.5%	3.37	4.59	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	18	85	361	113	50	6	95%	4.5	23.2%	16.4%	6.8%	2.5%	3.37	4.59	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	18	85	361	113	50	6	95%	4.5	31.3%	13.9%	17.5%	1.7%	3.37	3.12	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	25	18	103	439	133	62	18	72%	4.1	24.6%	14.6%	10.0%	4.8%	5.17	5.52	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	25	18	103	439	133	62	18	72%	4.1	24.6%	14.6%	10.0%	4.8%	5.17	5.52	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	NYY	19	15	81	332	114	41	14	79%	4.3	34.3%	12.3%	22.0%	4.2%	3.65	4.08	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	NYY	6	3	21	107	19	21	4	50%	3.6	17.8%	19.6%	-1.9%	3.7%	10.97	6.14	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	NYY	1	1	8	34	8	6	1	100%	8.2	24.5%	17.4%	7.0%	2.9%	5.22	5.22	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	111	473	141	68	19	—	—	29.9%	14.4%	15.5%	4.0%	5.18	5.50	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	120	506	125	77	15	100%	6.0	24.7%	15.3%	9.4%	2.9%	5.01	4.93	-0.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYY	22	22	132	556	138	82	16	100%	6.0	24.7%	14.7%	10.0%	2.9%	4.89	4.85	+0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYY	22	22	130	548	135	79	16	100%	5.9	24.6%	14.4%	10.2%	3.0%	4.86	4.86	+0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	NYY	21	21	126	532	130	77	16	100%	6.0	24.4%	14.4%	10.0%	3.1%	4.89	4.93	-0.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	120	508	123	74	16	100%	6.0	24.1%	14.6%	9.5%	3.2%	4.99	5.06	-0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	113	477	114	71	16	100%	5.9	23.8%	14.9%	8.9%	3.4%	5.14	5.24	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	53	224	55	34	7	100%	5.9	24.7%	15.3%	9.4%	3.1%	5.12	5.04	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYY	15	15	88	372	92	55	12	100%	5.9	24.7%	14.7%	10.0%	3.1%	5.00	4.96	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYY	17	17	101	426	105	61	13	100%	5.9	24.6%	14.4%	10.2%	3.2%	4.97	4.97	+0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	NYY	18	18	106	448	109	64	15	100%	5.9	24.4%	14.4%	10.0%	3.3%	5.00	5.04	-0.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	NYY	18	18	105	443	107	65	15	100%	5.8	24.1%	14.6%	9.5%	3.4%	5.11	5.18	-0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	NYY	17	17	102	431	102	64	16	100%	6.0	23.8%	14.9%	8.9%	3.6%	5.27	5.37	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		93	93	555	2342	570	344	78	100%	6.0	24.4%	14.7%	9.7%	3.3%	5.08	4.72	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	206	124	28	100%	6.0	24.4%	14.7%	9.7%	3.3%	5.08	4.72	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		44	36	188	800	192	123	30	82%	4.3	24.0%	15.4%	8.6%	3.8%	4.36	5.10	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	38	200	851	204	131	32	82%	4.3	24.0%	15.4%	8.6%	3.8%	4.36	5.10	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Xavier Rivas (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	24.5%	17.4%	2.9%	—	4.88	24.7%	9.9%	381	-0.34	—	—	—
Doug Nikhazy L 2023 · 5.39 FIP	23	SP	5.39	21.9%	16.9%	3.6%	.304	4.73	19.6%	8.6%	256	-0.66	4.16	461	84
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	82
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	79
Dante Biasi L 2022 · 4.91 FIP	24	SP-	4.91	18.7%	15.9%	2.5%	.288	6.65	20.1%	1.7%	69	+1.74	4.91	224	78
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	77
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	76
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	75
Kevin Smith L 2021 · 5.54 FIP	24	SP	5.54	23.8%	16.5%	4.3%	.296	6.20	17.5%	1.3%	48	+0.66	3.26	248	73
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	72
Cody Reed L 2017 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	19.1%	14.3%	1.8%	.301	3.86	22.0%	13.8%	181	-0.44	2.90	572	72
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	72
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	71
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	71
Shane Drohan L 2023 · 5.18 FIP	24	SP	5.18	19.3%	12.1%	4.0%	.308	3.49	24.7%	15.9%	190	-1.69	2.88	532	71
Cooper Hjerpe L 2023 · 6.23 FIP	22	SP-	6.23	23.0%	16.8%	5.3%	.207	3.77	28.5%	11.7%	86	-2.46	3.61	127	70
Grant Wolfram L 2021 · 5.44 FIP	24	SP-	5.44	25.2%	12.9%	5.1%	.327	3.95	22.8%	10.7%	176	-1.49	2.41	418	70
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	70
Keegan Akin L 2019 · 4.13 FIP	24	SP	4.13	22.9%	12.7%	2.5%	.329	3.98	22.3%	14.5%	202	-0.15	2.62	743	70
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	69
Cameron Bishop L 2019 · 4.65 FIP	23	SP	4.65	16.6%	13.9%	2.2%	.316	3.42	23.8%	11.5%	66	-1.23	2.86	305	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.2	119	24.4%	15.0%	1.18	4.99
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32