Yeferson Vargas — OGILVIE

Yeferson Vargas P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 177 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.4 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION67 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138129vR 120

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%16.9%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%2.4%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 131 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5055

CMD3040

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2032	Arb-1	$5M	+1.0	$5M	+$3M
2033	Arb-2	$7M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$8M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$28M	+$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	DSL Red Sox Blue	12	11	34	157	33	24	0	92%	2.8	14.3%	19.1%	-4.8%	0.0%	6.09	4.31	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Red Sox Blue	12	11	34	157	33	24	0	92%	2.8	21.0%	15.3%	5.7%	0.0%	6.09	3.28	—
2024	19	MIX	2 levels	18	10	66	272	67	31	3	56%	3.7	17.6%	13.8%	3.8%	1.7%	2.71	4.30	—
2024	19	MIX	2 levels	18	10	66	272	67	31	3	56%	3.7	24.6%	11.4%	13.2%	1.1%	2.71	3.07	—
2025	20	MIX	2 levels	26	26	110	499	100	61	7	100%	4.2	15.1%	14.3%	0.8%	1.7%	5.14	4.58	—
2025	20	MIX	2 levels	26	26	110	499	100	61	7	100%	4.2	20.0%	12.2%	7.8%	1.4%	5.14	3.77	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	14	14	67	295	47	35	11	100%	4.8	12.3%	13.6%	-1.4%	4.7%	6.34	6.35	-1.3
ROS	21	MLB	LAA	13	13	65	274	46	39	7	100%	5.0	16.9%	14.4%	2.4%	2.6%	5.30	5.30	-0.5
ROS	21	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.9%	14.4%	2.4%	2.5%	5.28	5.28	—
2026 TOT	21	MLB	LAA	—	—	131	569	93	74	18	—	—	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	3.2%	5.83	5.83	-0.7
2026 FULL	21	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	1	0	0	0	—	—	16.9%	14.4%	2.4%	2.5%	5.28	4.90	-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	LAA	26	26	134	568	110	72	15	100%	5.2	19.4%	12.7%	6.8%	2.6%	4.99	4.85	+0.9
2028	23	MLB	LAA	32	32	174	733	154	85	19	100%	5.4	21.1%	11.6%	9.5%	2.6%	4.72	4.57	+1.7
2029	24	MLB	LAA	31	31	175	739	163	81	19	100%	5.6	22.1%	10.9%	11.2%	2.5%	4.52	4.39	+2.1
2030	25	MLB	LAA	30	30	177	748	170	79	19	100%	5.9	22.7%	10.6%	12.1%	2.5%	4.38	4.29	+2.3
2031	26	MLB	LAA	30	30	177	748	172	79	19	100%	5.9	23.0%	10.5%	12.5%	2.5%	4.31	4.26	+2.4
2032	27	MLB	LAA	29	29	174	737	169	78	19	100%	6.0	23.0%	10.6%	12.4%	2.6%	4.30	4.30	+2.2
2033	28	MLB	LAA	28	28	169	715	164	77	19	100%	6.0	22.9%	10.8%	12.1%	2.7%	4.35	4.39	+2.0
2034	29	MLB	LAA	27	27	162	683	155	75	19	100%	6.0	22.6%	11.0%	11.7%	2.8%	4.45	4.52	+1.7
2035	30	MLB	LAA	25	25	152	642	143	72	20	100%	6.1	22.3%	11.3%	11.0%	3.0%	4.60	4.70	+1.2
2036	31	MLB	LAA	24	24	142	598	131	70	20	100%	5.9	21.9%	11.6%	10.3%	3.3%	4.78	4.90	+0.8
2037	32	MLB	LAA	22	22	131	554	119	67	19	100%	6.0	21.4%	12.0%	9.4%	3.5%	4.99	5.12	+0.4
2038	33	MLB	LAA	20	20	120	508	106	63	19	100%	6.0	20.9%	12.5%	8.5%	3.8%	5.22	5.37	+0.0
2027	22	MLB	LAA	13	13	66	279	54	35	7	100%	5.1	19.4%	12.7%	6.8%	2.5%	4.97	4.83	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	LAA	24	24	127	536	113	62	13	100%	5.3	21.1%	11.6%	9.5%	2.5%	4.70	4.55	+1.3
2029	24	MLB	LAA	26	26	145	612	135	67	15	100%	5.6	22.1%	10.9%	11.2%	2.5%	4.50	4.37	+1.8
2030	25	MLB	LAA	27	27	157	663	150	70	17	100%	5.8	22.7%	10.6%	12.1%	2.5%	4.36	4.27	+2.1
2031	26	MLB	LAA	27	27	162	684	157	72	17	100%	6.0	23.0%	10.5%	12.5%	2.5%	4.29	4.24	+2.2
2032	27	MLB	LAA	27	27	162	684	157	73	17	100%	6.0	23.0%	10.6%	12.4%	2.5%	4.28	4.28	+2.1
2033	28	MLB	LAA	26	26	158	667	153	72	18	100%	6.1	22.9%	10.8%	12.1%	2.6%	4.32	4.36	+1.9
2034	29	MLB	LAA	26	26	154	650	147	71	18	100%	5.9	22.6%	11.0%	11.7%	2.8%	4.42	4.49	+1.6
2035	30	MLB	LAA	24	24	144	608	136	69	18	100%	6.0	22.3%	11.3%	11.0%	3.0%	4.57	4.67	+1.2
2036	31	MLB	LAA	22	22	135	570	125	66	18	100%	6.1	21.9%	11.6%	10.3%	3.2%	4.75	4.87	+0.8
2037	32	MLB	LAA	21	21	125	528	113	63	18	100%	6.0	21.4%	12.0%	9.4%	3.5%	4.96	5.09	+0.5
2038	33	MLB	LAA	19	19	114	481	101	60	18	100%	6.0	20.9%	12.5%	8.5%	3.7%	5.18	5.33	+0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			282	282	1649	6961	1541	780	195	100%	5.8	22.1%	11.2%	10.9%	2.8%	4.56	4.19	+23.4
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	187	95	24	100%	5.9	22.1%	11.2%	10.9%	2.8%	4.56	4.19	+2.8
Career	—			70	61	277	1223	182	179	27	87%	4.0	14.8%	14.6%	0.2%	2.2%	4.97	4.91	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—			50	44	200	882	131	129	19	87%	4.0	14.8%	14.6%	0.2%	2.2%	4.97	4.91	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yeferson Vargas (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	16.9%	14.4%	2.6%	—	4.58	21.0%	9.3%	483	-0.72	—	—	—
Jake Madden R 2026 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP	5.22	15.9%	15.2%	2.8%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.65	4.57	123	92
Zack Bird R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	21	SP	4.72	18.1%	15.6%	2.1%	.281	5.19	10.8%	-7.7%	48	+0.47	4.72	149	91
Garrett Cave R 2027 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	16.4%	14.9%	2.4%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	+0.05	4.92	156	91
Davian Garcia R 2026 · 5.37 FIP	21	SP	5.37	15.8%	16.5%	2.8%	.260	5.35	15.2%	-4.6%	28	-0.02	5.35	124	90
José Leclerc R 2026 · 5.09 FIP	21	SP	5.09	16.8%	17.0%	2.3%	.304	3.22	30.0%	15.1%	184	-1.87	1.48	527	87
Khristian Curtis R 2027 · 5.39 FIP	22	SP	5.39	18.8%	14.4%	3.7%	.275	4.58	21.4%	9.3%	183	-0.81	4.52	258	87
Chris McElvain R 2027 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	15.8%	11.6%	2.9%	.275	5.18	16.0%	4.7%	191	+0.39	4.01	287	87
Hayden Merda R 2028 · 5.06 FIP	23	SP	5.06	16.1%	15.3%	2.5%	.325	4.42	25.8%	12.5%	87	-0.64	3.50	182	87
Jason Savacool R 2027 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP-	4.79	14.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.275	5.02	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.23	4.43	225	87
J.P. Massey R 2028 · 4.91 FIP	23	SP	4.91	18.2%	16.0%	2.4%	.259	5.03	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.12	4.62	195	87
Elijah Dale R 2028 · 4.70 FIP	23	SP	4.70	16.7%	13.6%	2.3%	.239	6.40	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.70	4.70	140	87
Henry Williams R 2026 · 5.43 FIP	21	SP	5.43	16.5%	14.2%	3.5%	.271	4.77	16.7%	6.5%	293	-0.66	4.06	360	87
Jacob Watters R 2027 · 4.70 FIP	22	SP	4.70	18.3%	17.1%	1.8%	.319	4.54	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.16	3.96	165	87
Adam Hill R 2027 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	15.6%	12.6%	2.9%	.297	6.36	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.40	4.96	213	86
Jordan Sheffield R 2027 · 5.09 FIP	22	SP	5.09	16.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.320	5.62	22.6%	4.7%	89	+0.53	3.79	248	86
Alex Royalty R 2027 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	14.9%	11.6%	1.9%	.302	4.74	17.7%	8.6%	40	+0.40	4.34	151	86
Jake Peppers R 2027 · 5.49 FIP	22	SP	5.49	15.3%	12.2%	3.9%	.293	5.36	14.8%	-1.7%	88	-0.13	5.03	185	85
Aaron Davenport R 2027 · 4.63 FIP	22	SP	4.63	20.0%	13.2%	2.8%	.280	4.97	16.9%	5.2%	391	+0.34	4.09	498	85
Victor Lizarraga R 2026 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP	5.22	16.8%	14.2%	3.2%	.325	5.65	13.5%	-2.8%	68	+0.43	3.89	474	84
Ryan Degges R 2027 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	15.1%	16.7%	2.8%	.296	6.74	21.2%	5.9%	21	+1.24	5.50	102	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	13	152	21.8%	11.4%	1.09	4.63
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Wade Miley ('23)	8	136	18.2%	8.5%	1.07	4.20
Zach Davies ('23)	9	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Julio Teheran ('23)	7	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12