Yeferson Vargas — OGILVIE

Yeferson Vargas P Tri-City Dust Devils

+0.6 WAR

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 177 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 2.6 · 2030

ERA4.74

FIP4.74

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%19.6%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%7.8%

IP110

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.6peak

2030

K†4555

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	DSL Red Sox Blue	12	11	34	157	33	24	0	14.3%	19.1%	0.0%	6.09	4.31	+0.2
2024	19	A	Inland Empire 66ers	18	10	66	272	67	31	3	17.6%	13.8%	1.6%	2.71	4.26	+0.6
2025	20	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	26	26	110	499	100	61	7	15.1%	14.3%	1.8%	5.14	4.60	+0.9
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	2	2	10	42	8	6	0	—	—	—	1.74	—	—
ROS	21	MLB	LAA	20	20	110	466	91	55	12	19.6%	11.8%	2.6%	4.74	4.74	+0.7
2026 Total	21	MLB	LAA	—	—	121	508	99	61	12	19.6%	12.0%	2.4%	4.48	4.33	+1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	LAA	25	25	138	582	122	61	15	21.0%	10.5%	2.6%	4.54	4.45	+1.3
2028	23	MLB	LAA	30	30	163	688	150	66	18	21.8%	9.6%	2.6%	4.37	4.26	+1.9
2029	24	MLB	LAA	33	33	183	773	173	71	20	22.3%	9.1%	2.5%	4.24	4.15	+2.4
2030	25	MLB	LAA	34	34	185	783	178	69	20	22.7%	8.9%	2.5%	4.15	4.08	+2.6
2031	26	MLB	LAA	34	34	185	783	179	69	20	22.9%	8.8%	2.5%	4.10	4.06	+2.6
2032	27	MLB	LAA	33	33	184	777	178	69	20	22.9%	8.8%	2.6%	4.08	4.07	+2.6
2033	28	MLB	LAA	33	33	181	765	175	68	20	22.9%	8.9%	2.6%	4.09	4.10	+2.5
2034	29	MLB	LAA	32	32	177	748	170	67	20	22.7%	9.0%	2.6%	4.12	4.14	+2.3
2035	30	MLB	LAA	31	31	172	725	163	66	20	22.5%	9.1%	2.7%	4.17	4.21	+2.1
2036	31	MLB	LAA	30	30	166	700	156	64	19	22.3%	9.2%	2.8%	4.24	4.28	+1.9
2037	32	MLB	LAA	29	29	159	672	148	63	19	22.0%	9.3%	2.8%	4.32	4.37	+1.7
2038	33	MLB	LAA	28	28	152	642	139	61	19	21.7%	9.5%	2.9%	4.41	4.46	+1.4
2039	34	MLB	LAA	26	26	144	610	130	59	18	21.3%	9.7%	3.0%	4.51	4.57	+1.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			58	49	221	970	153	145	13	15.8%	14.9%	1.4%	4.40	4.40	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—			52	44	200	878	138	131	12	15.8%	14.9%	1.4%	4.40	4.40	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yeferson Vargas (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	19.6%	11.8%	2.6%	—	4.27	21.7%	12.1%	484	-0.47	—	—	—
Aaron Davenport R 2027 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP-	4.86	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	5.01	16.9%	5.2%	391	+0.15	4.06	498	93
Josh Grosz R 2026 · 4.83 FIP	21	SP-	4.83	19.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.271	4.75	19.4%	7.6%	125	-0.08	4.75	243	92
Kyle Bradish R 2027 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.87	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.68	2.16	615	92
Will Watson R 2027 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP-	4.13	21.8%	13.4%	2.1%	.275	4.39	15.6%	5.0%	11	+0.26	4.13	132	92
Micah Ottenbreit R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	21	SP-	4.31	17.9%	11.8%	2.2%	.305	3.04	14.7%	10.3%	24	-1.27	3.04	118	91
Josh Bostick R 2027 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP-	4.71	19.3%	11.2%	3.3%	.304	5.41	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.70	4.71	226	91
Nolan DeVos R 2027 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.82	12.3%	-1.5%	12	+1.65	4.17	110	91
Will Sanders R 2027 · 4.90 FIP	22	SP-	4.90	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.297	4.22	20.2%	11.5%	139	-0.68	4.01	231	90
Ty Cummings R 2027 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	19.0%	10.5%	2.7%	.329	5.00	14.2%	5.9%	116	+0.70	4.30	233	90
Trevor Martin R 2027 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP-	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.28	20.2%	11.6%	172	+0.04	4.19	282	89
Sam Carlson R 2027 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	17.9%	11.2%	2.3%	.334	3.73	19.9%	9.1%	153	-0.56	3.20	313	89
Braden Webb R 2027 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.79	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.34	4.45	308	89
Jackson Nezuh R 2027 · 3.90 FIP	22	SP-	3.90	22.5%	11.2%	2.3%	.290	4.40	18.6%	9.7%	72	+0.50	3.90	193	89
Nick Sinacola R 2027 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.335	4.06	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.37	3.55	357	89
Isaiah Lowe R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	21	SP-	3.72	18.5%	12.0%	1.2%	.303	5.13	12.4%	-1.1%	92	+1.41	3.72	197	89
Dinelson Lamet R 2028 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP-	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.77	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.59	1.92	778	88
Jordan Foley R 2027 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	19.6%	12.1%	1.6%	.294	4.02	22.8%	9.3%	162	+0.17	3.21	305	88
Jimmy Endersby R 2028 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP-	4.24	20.9%	14.1%	2.0%	.310	5.78	16.4%	3.7%	225	+1.54	2.86	357	88
Shelby Lackey R 2027 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.96	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.49	2.91	175	88
Trent Baker R 2028 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	19.3%	10.7%	2.5%	.315	4.02	18.1%	9.4%	296	-0.15	3.77	420	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+2.6	$23M	+$23M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.6	$24M	+$23M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.6	$25M	+$24M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+2.5	$25M	+$20M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+2.3	$23M	+$16M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$10M	+2.1	$22M	+$12M
Totals		$26M		$142M	+$117M