Yeferson Vargas

P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 177 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.6 · 2031

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP40OGV rank#361ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	MIX2 levels	18	10	66	2.71	3.07	24.6%	11.4%	—	K 17.6% · BB 13.8% · FIP 4.25
2025	20	MIX2 levels	26	26	110	5.14	3.77	20.0%	12.2%	—	K 15.1% · BB 14.3% · FIP 4.60
2026	21	A+LAA	22	20	99	6.45	5.04	17.6%	12.5%	—	K 13.6% · BB 14.4% · FIP 5.92
2027PROJ	22	MLBLAA	—	—	0	5.75	5.75	15.3%	14.9%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBLAA	9	9	50	5.42	5.29	18.1%	13.1%	0.1
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBLAA	14	14	78	5.13	4.98	19.9%	12.0%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$2M2033Arb-2$2M2034Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 3.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 90%

CompsJason Savacool (age 22) · Garrett Cave (age 22) · J.P. Massey (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142134vR 126

ERA5.75

FIP5.75

K%15.3%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%0.5%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$22M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-2	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.3M
2034	Arb-3	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$11M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	12	11	34	157	33	24	0	92%	2.8	14.3%	19.1%	-4.8%	0.0%	6.09	4.31	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Blue	12	11	34	157	33	24	0	92%	2.8	21.0%	15.3%	5.7%	0.0%	6.09	3.28	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	66	272	67	31	3	56%	3.7	17.6%	13.8%	3.8%	1.6%	2.71	4.25	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	66	272	67	31	3	56%	3.7	17.6%	13.8%	3.8%	1.6%	2.71	4.25	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	10	66	272	67	31	3	56%	3.7	24.6%	11.4%	13.2%	1.1%	2.71	3.07	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	110	499	100	61	7	100%	4.2	15.1%	14.3%	0.8%	1.8%	5.14	4.60	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	110	499	100	61	7	100%	4.2	15.1%	14.3%	0.8%	1.8%	5.14	4.60	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	110	499	100	61	7	100%	4.2	20.0%	12.2%	7.8%	1.4%	5.14	3.77	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	22	20	99	448	79	56	14	91%	4.5	13.6%	14.4%	-0.8%	3.9%	6.45	5.92	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	22	20	99	448	79	56	14	91%	4.5	13.6%	14.4%	-0.8%	3.9%	6.45	5.92	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	22	20	99	448	79	56	14	91%	4.5	17.6%	12.5%	5.1%	3.1%	6.45	5.04	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.3%	14.9%	0.5%	3.1%	5.75	5.75	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	LAA	19	19	102	429	78	56	13	100%	5.4	18.1%	13.1%	5.0%	3.0%	5.39	5.26	+0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	LAA	20	20	111	470	94	56	14	100%	5.6	19.9%	12.0%	7.9%	3.0%	5.10	4.95	+0.6
2030	25	MLB MLE	LAA	19	19	113	476	100	54	14	100%	5.9	21.0%	11.3%	9.7%	3.0%	4.89	4.77	+0.8
2031	26	MLB MLE	LAA	19	19	113	476	103	53	14	100%	5.9	21.6%	11.2%	10.4%	3.0%	4.77	4.70	+0.9
2032	27	MLB MLE	LAA	18	18	110	463	100	52	14	100%	6.1	21.6%	11.3%	10.3%	3.0%	4.75	4.74	+0.8
2033	28	MLB MLE	LAA	17	17	104	441	95	50	14	100%	6.1	21.5%	11.4%	10.1%	3.1%	4.79	4.82	+0.7
2034	29	MLB MLE	LAA	16	16	97	411	87	48	13	100%	6.1	21.3%	11.7%	9.6%	3.3%	4.89	4.95	+0.5
2035	30	MLB MLE	LAA	15	15	89	375	78	45	13	100%	5.9	20.9%	12.0%	9.0%	3.5%	5.03	5.13	+0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	LAA	9	9	50	211	38	28	6	100%	5.6	18.1%	13.1%	5.0%	3.1%	5.42	5.29	+0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	78	329	66	40	10	100%	5.6	19.9%	12.0%	7.9%	3.0%	5.13	4.98	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	LAA	16	16	92	388	82	44	12	100%	5.8	21.0%	11.3%	9.7%	3.0%	4.92	4.80	+0.7
2031	26	MLB CTX	LAA	16	16	99	418	90	47	13	100%	6.2	21.6%	11.2%	10.4%	3.0%	4.80	4.73	+0.8
2032	27	MLB CTX	LAA	16	16	99	418	90	47	13	100%	6.2	21.6%	11.3%	10.3%	3.1%	4.78	4.77	+0.8
2033	28	MLB CTX	LAA	16	16	96	405	87	46	13	100%	6.0	21.5%	11.4%	10.1%	3.2%	4.82	4.85	+0.6
2034	29	MLB CTX	LAA	15	15	91	384	82	45	13	100%	6.1	21.3%	11.7%	9.6%	3.3%	4.93	4.99	+0.5
2035	30	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	83	350	73	42	12	100%	5.9	20.9%	12.0%	9.0%	3.5%	5.07	5.17	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		117	117	687	2901	608	338	92	100%	5.9	20.9%	11.6%	9.3%	3.2%	4.95	4.54	+6.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	177	98	27	100%	5.9	20.9%	11.6%	9.3%	3.2%	4.95	4.54	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		78	67	310	1376	206	203	31	86%	4.0	15.0%	14.8%	0.2%	2.2%	5.14	4.93	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	43	200	889	133	131	20	86%	4.0	15.0%	14.8%	0.2%	2.2%	5.14	4.93	+1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 99 IPFIP 4.91 → 5.92 (+1.01)K% 17.6% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.63%	—	×0.770	13.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.150	14.37%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.91%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.91 → 5.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AInland Empire 66ers · 69 IPFIP 3.84 → 4.78 (+0.94)K% 19.9% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.87%	—	×0.740	14.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.18%	—	×1.180	14.37%
HR / BF /BF	1.60%	÷1.036	×1.300	2.01%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 3.84 → 4.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 42 IPFIP 3.53 → 4.30 (+0.78)K% 20.3% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.32%	—	×0.770	15.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.30%	—	×1.150	14.14%
HR / BF /BF	1.07%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.34%

Result: FIP 3.53 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AInland Empire 66ers · 35 IPFIP 2.44 → 3.33 (+0.89)K% 27.1% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.14%	—	×0.740	20.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.86%	—	×1.180	15.17%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.882	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.44 → 3.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Red Sox · 32 IPFIP 3.74 → 5.23 (+1.49)K% 22.0% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.97%	—	×0.680	14.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.85%	—	×1.250	12.31%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷0.952	×1.400	3.34%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 3.74 → 5.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Red Sox Blue · 34 IPFIP 3.26 → 4.31 (+1.05)K% 21.0% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.02%	—	×0.680	14.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.29%	—	×1.250	19.11%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.924	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.26 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yeferson Vargas (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.98	19.7%	7.6%	326	-0.77	—	—	—
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	89
Garrett Cave R 2018 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	16.4%	14.9%	2.5%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	-0.02	4.97	156	88
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	88
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	88
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	87
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	86
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	86
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	86
Chad Dallas R 2022 · 5.87 FIP	22	SP	5.87	16.4%	14.5%	4.2%	.282	4.70	20.0%	10.3%	184	-1.17	3.53	358	86
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	85
Michael YaSenka R 2021 · 5.98 FIP	23	SP	5.98	18.1%	15.0%	4.6%	.288	5.95	18.8%	6.1%	58	-0.03	5.95	154	85
Troy Miller R 2019 · 5.09 FIP	22	SP	5.09	12.0%	12.7%	2.5%	.299	5.30	18.3%	8.3%	45	+0.21	5.09	168	85
Adam Hill R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SP	5.00	15.6%	12.6%	3.0%	.297	6.06	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.06	5.00	213	85
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	85
Jordan Sheffield R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP	5.07	16.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.320	5.60	22.6%	4.7%	89	+0.53	3.90	248	84
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.7%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	84
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	84
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	84
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	83
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	103	20.2%	12.0%	1.19	5.02
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
Joe Sparma ('64-'70, 3 WAR*)	4.3	124	19.3%*	11.5%*	1.07*	4.93*
Ian Snell ('10)	4.0	134	17.8%	10.4%	1.12	4.80