Yeferson Vargas — OGILVIE

Yeferson Vargas P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 177 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.5 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION99 act + 9 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.37

FIP5.37

K%16.9%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%1.9%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 108 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$27M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5055

CMD3040

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$6M
2032	Arb-1	$5M	+1.1	$6M	+$3M
2033	Arb-2	$7M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$8M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$25M	+$17M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	12	11	34	157	33	24	0	92%	2.8	14.3%	19.1%	-4.8%	0.0%	6.09	4.31	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	12	11	34	157	33	24	0	92%	2.8	14.3%	19.1%	-4.8%	0.0%	6.09	4.31	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Blue	12	11	34	157	33	24	0	92%	2.8	21.0%	15.3%	5.7%	0.0%	6.09	3.28	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	66	272	67	31	3	56%	3.7	17.6%	13.8%	3.8%	1.6%	2.71	4.25	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	66	272	67	31	3	56%	3.7	17.6%	13.8%	3.8%	1.6%	2.71	4.25	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	10	66	272	67	31	3	56%	3.7	24.6%	11.4%	13.2%	1.1%	2.71	3.07	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	110	499	100	61	7	100%	4.2	15.1%	14.3%	0.8%	1.8%	5.14	4.60	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	110	499	100	61	7	100%	4.2	15.1%	14.3%	0.8%	1.8%	5.14	4.60	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	110	499	100	61	7	100%	4.2	20.0%	12.2%	7.8%	1.4%	5.14	3.77	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	22	20	99	448	79	56	14	91%	4.5	13.6%	14.4%	-0.8%	3.9%	6.45	5.92	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	22	20	99	448	79	56	14	91%	4.5	13.6%	14.4%	-0.8%	3.9%	6.45	5.92	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A+ RAW	LAA	22	20	99	448	79	56	14	91%	4.5	17.6%	12.5%	5.1%	3.1%	6.45	4.91	—
ROS	21	MLB MLE	LAA	2	2	9	36	6	5	1	100%	4.3	16.9%	14.9%	1.9%	2.6%	5.37	5.37	-0.0
2026 TOT	21	MLB MLE	LAA	—	—	108	484	85	61	15	—	—	17.6%	12.7%	4.9%	3.1%	6.37	5.87	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	LAA	28	28	140	592	115	77	15	100%	5.0	19.4%	13.0%	6.4%	2.6%	5.04	4.90	0.0
2028	23	MLB MLE	LAA	33	33	175	739	156	88	19	100%	5.3	21.1%	11.8%	9.2%	2.6%	4.76	4.60	+0.6
2029	24	MLB MLE	LAA	32	32	179	757	167	84	19	100%	5.6	22.1%	11.1%	11.0%	2.5%	4.55	4.42	+1.0
2030	25	MLB MLE	LAA	31	31	180	760	173	82	19	100%	5.8	22.7%	10.7%	12.0%	2.5%	4.41	4.32	+1.2
2031	26	MLB MLE	LAA	30	30	180	760	175	81	19	100%	6.0	23.0%	10.7%	12.3%	2.5%	4.34	4.29	+1.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	LAA	30	30	177	749	172	81	19	100%	5.9	23.0%	10.8%	12.2%	2.6%	4.33	4.33	+1.2
2033	28	MLB MLE	LAA	29	29	172	726	166	79	20	100%	5.9	22.9%	10.9%	12.0%	2.7%	4.38	4.41	+1.0
2034	29	MLB MLE	LAA	27	27	164	694	157	77	20	100%	6.1	22.6%	11.1%	11.5%	2.8%	4.48	4.54	+0.7
2035	30	MLB MLE	LAA	26	26	154	652	145	75	20	100%	5.9	22.3%	11.4%	10.8%	3.0%	4.62	4.72	+0.3
2036	31	MLB MLE	LAA	24	24	144	608	133	72	20	100%	6.0	21.9%	11.8%	10.1%	3.3%	4.80	4.92	-0.0
2037	32	MLB MLE	LAA	22	22	133	562	121	69	20	100%	6.1	21.4%	12.2%	9.3%	3.5%	5.01	5.15	-0.4
2027	22	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	69	291	57	38	8	100%	4.9	19.4%	13.0%	6.4%	2.6%	5.07	4.93	0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	LAA	24	24	128	540	114	64	14	100%	5.3	21.1%	11.8%	9.2%	2.6%	4.79	4.63	+0.4
2029	24	MLB CTX	LAA	27	27	149	629	139	70	16	100%	5.5	22.1%	11.1%	11.0%	2.6%	4.58	4.45	+0.8
2030	25	MLB CTX	LAA	27	27	159	671	152	72	17	100%	5.9	22.7%	10.7%	12.0%	2.6%	4.44	4.35	+1.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	LAA	27	27	164	692	159	74	18	100%	6.1	23.0%	10.7%	12.3%	2.6%	4.37	4.32	+1.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	LAA	27	27	164	692	159	75	18	100%	6.1	23.0%	10.8%	12.2%	2.6%	4.36	4.36	+1.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	LAA	27	27	161	680	156	74	19	100%	6.0	22.9%	10.9%	12.0%	2.7%	4.41	4.44	+0.9
2034	29	MLB CTX	LAA	26	26	156	659	149	73	19	100%	6.0	22.6%	11.1%	11.5%	2.9%	4.51	4.57	+0.7
2035	30	MLB CTX	LAA	24	24	147	621	138	71	19	100%	6.1	22.3%	11.4%	10.8%	3.1%	4.65	4.75	+0.3
2036	31	MLB CTX	LAA	23	23	137	578	127	68	19	100%	6.0	21.9%	11.8%	10.1%	3.3%	4.84	4.96	-0.0
2037	32	MLB CTX	LAA	21	21	127	536	115	65	19	100%	6.0	21.4%	12.2%	9.3%	3.6%	5.05	5.19	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		267	267	1561	6590	1465	745	187	100%	5.8	22.2%	11.3%	10.9%	2.8%	4.60	4.21	+12.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	188	95	24	100%	5.8	22.2%	11.3%	10.9%	2.8%	4.60	4.21	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		78	67	310	1376	206	203	31	86%	4.0	15.0%	14.8%	0.2%	2.2%	5.14	4.93	+6.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	43	200	889	133	131	20	86%	4.0	15.0%	14.8%	0.2%	2.2%	5.14	4.93	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yeferson Vargas (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.37	16.9%	14.9%	2.6%	—	4.62	21.0%	9.1%	495	-0.75	—	—	—
Zack Bird R 2015 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP	4.59	18.1%	15.6%	1.9%	.281	5.37	10.8%	-7.7%	48	+0.78	4.59	149	91
Garrett Cave R 2018 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	16.4%	14.9%	2.5%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	-0.02	4.97	156	90
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	90
José Leclerc R 2015 · 5.02 FIP	21	SP	5.02	16.8%	17.0%	2.1%	.304	3.15	30.0%	15.1%	184	-1.87	1.48	527	89
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	88
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	87
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	87
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	86
Adam Hill R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SP	5.00	15.6%	12.6%	3.0%	.297	6.06	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.06	5.00	213	86
Karson Milbrandt R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	19	SP	4.37	16.5%	13.7%	1.7%	.330	4.48	20.2%	5.8%	282	+0.11	3.62	377	85
Jordan Sheffield R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP	5.07	16.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.320	5.60	22.6%	4.7%	89	+0.53	3.90	248	85
Chad Dallas R 2022 · 5.87 FIP	22	SP	5.87	16.4%	14.5%	4.2%	.282	4.71	19.8%	10.2%	184	-1.16	3.47	340	85
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	84
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	84
Heath Fillmyer R 2015 · 5.38 FIP	21	SP	5.38	12.8%	14.9%	2.7%	.339	4.43	15.2%	6.6%	433	-0.95	3.52	687	84
Alex Royalty R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	14.9%	11.6%	1.8%	.302	4.50	17.7%	8.6%	40	+0.17	4.33	151	84
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	84
Carlos Hernandez R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	17.4%	15.7%	1.3%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	123	84
Troy Miller R 2019 · 5.09 FIP	22	SP	5.09	12.0%	12.7%	2.5%	.299	5.30	18.3%	8.3%	45	+0.21	5.09	168	83
Aaron Davenport R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP	4.81	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	4.95	16.7%	5.5%	391	+0.14	4.04	498	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.5	158	21.8%	11.5%	1.07	4.63
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98