Jake Bloss — OGILVIE

Jake Bloss P Buffalo Bisons

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 223 lbs AAA Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 0.6 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 60 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 111

ERA4.70

FIP4.97

K%18.8%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%8.9%

ROS IP60

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD4050

K†4550

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3493.4

Whiff%

p3723.4%

p3520.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.364

SI (2%)

CU (13%)

SL-0.8 (34%)

CH-1.4 (8%)

FB-2.6 (45%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-4	$4M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	6	19	79	23	12	0	86%	2.7	21.4%	18.8%	2.6%	0.0%	2.89	3.67	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	6	19	79	23	12	0	86%	2.7	21.4%	18.8%	2.6%	0.0%	2.89	3.67	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	6	19	79	23	12	0	86%	2.7	29.1%	15.2%	13.9%	0.0%	2.89	2.56	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	24	24	105	432	99	39	13	100%	4.4	18.9%	9.3%	9.7%	3.3%	3.60	4.49	+0.5
2024	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	24	24	105	432	99	39	13	100%	4.4	18.9%	9.3%	9.7%	3.3%	3.60	4.49	+0.5
2024	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	24	24	105	432	99	39	13	100%	4.4	22.9%	9.0%	13.9%	3.0%	3.60	3.94	+1.2
2025	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	6	6	24	115	24	13	3	100%	3.9	17.3%	10.2%	7.1%	3.4%	6.46	4.79	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	6	6	24	115	24	13	3	100%	3.9	17.3%	10.2%	7.1%	3.4%	6.46	4.79	—
2025	24	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	6	6	24	115	24	13	3	100%	3.9	20.9%	11.3%	9.6%	2.6%	6.46	4.37	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	3	12	55	11	3	5	100%	3.9	20.0%	5.5%	14.5%	9.1%	6.94	7.56	-0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	11	11	39	170	37	10	10	100%	3.6	9.2%	6.0%	3.2%	7.3%	6.18	7.11	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	11	11	39	170	37	10	10	100%	3.6	9.2%	6.0%	3.2%	7.3%	6.18	7.11	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	ROK RAW	TOR	2	2	5	18	7	0	0	100%	2.4	38.9%	0.0%	38.9%	0.0%	0.00	-0.18	—
2026	25	A RAW	TOR	3	3	11	46	14	2	3	100%	3.8	30.4%	4.3%	26.1%	6.5%	3.97	4.66	—
2026	25	AA RAW	TOR	1	1	4	16	6	2	1	100%	3.7	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	6.2%	7.36	4.95	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	TOR	5	5	20	90	10	6	6	100%	3.9	11.1%	6.7%	4.4%	6.7%	8.69	6.67	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TOR	23	23	137	578	116	56	19	100%	6.0	20.0%	9.7%	10.3%	3.3%	4.74	4.82	+0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	TOR	22	22	135	570	115	55	19	100%	6.1	20.1%	9.6%	10.5%	3.3%	4.77	4.81	+0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	TOR	22	22	131	553	111	53	19	100%	6.0	20.1%	9.7%	10.4%	3.4%	4.82	4.87	+0.0
2030	29	MLB MLE	TOR	21	21	125	528	103	52	19	100%	6.0	19.6%	9.8%	9.7%	3.5%	4.93	5.02	-0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	TOR	20	20	118	496	94	50	19	100%	5.9	18.9%	10.1%	8.7%	3.7%	5.11	5.22	-0.4
2027	26	MLB CTX	TOR	15	15	92	388	78	38	13	100%	6.1	20.0%	9.7%	10.3%	3.3%	4.74	4.82	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	TOR	18	18	105	443	89	43	15	100%	5.8	20.1%	9.6%	10.5%	3.3%	4.77	4.81	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	TOR	18	18	111	469	94	45	16	100%	6.2	20.1%	9.7%	10.4%	3.4%	4.82	4.87	+0.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	TOR	18	18	110	464	91	46	16	100%	6.1	19.6%	9.8%	9.7%	3.5%	4.93	5.02	-0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	TOR	18	18	106	448	84	45	17	100%	5.9	18.9%	10.1%	8.7%	3.7%	5.11	5.22	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		90	90	536	2267	447	219	81	100%	6.0	19.7%	9.7%	10.1%	3.6%	4.92	4.63	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	847	167	82	30	100%	5.9	19.7%	9.7%	10.1%	3.6%	4.92	4.63	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		48	47	187	796	134	77	31	98%	3.9	16.9%	9.6%	7.2%	3.9%	4.44	5.01	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	50	200	853	144	82	33	98%	3.9	16.9%	9.6%	7.2%	3.9%	4.44	5.01	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Bloss (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.97	18.8%	9.9%	3.3%	—	4.83	20.1%	10.4%	403	-0.14	—	—	—
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP	4.44	17.3%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.30	20.4%	9.9%	135	+0.86	1.49	373	83
Brandon Birdsell R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.05	19.2%	13.6%	154	+0.14	3.87	262	83
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	82
Jonathan Cannon R 2023 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP	4.74	16.1%	8.5%	3.5%	.311	4.68	17.7%	9.7%	415	-0.06	4.33	536	80
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	80
Chase Solesky R 2023 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.6%	10.0%	3.0%	.322	4.49	15.4%	8.2%	268	-0.31	4.07	563	80
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	79
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	22.3%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	4.00	23.6%	15.4%	437	-0.11	3.82	695	79
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	79
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	79
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	78
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	78
Mike Wright Jr. R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP	4.07	15.7%	7.9%	2.3%	.260	4.25	17.2%	9.8%	343	+0.18	3.76	725	78
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	236	78
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	78
Kade McClure R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	21.0%	8.4%	3.7%	.329	4.39	19.3%	11.4%	110	-0.04	3.57	388	78
Brady Feigl R 2021 · 5.26 FIP	25	SP	5.26	19.4%	9.6%	4.7%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	257	77
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	77
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	77
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	127	19.6%	9.8%	1.33	4.84
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75