Jake Bloss
P
Buffalo Bisons
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 223 lbs
AAA
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 0.3 · 2027
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION39 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 114
ERA4.72
FIP5.02
K%19.4%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%9.0%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 104 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3493.4
Whiff%
p3723.4%
K%
p3520.0%
xwOBA vs
p100.364
SI (2%)
CU (13%)
SL-0.8 (34%)
CH-1.4 (8%)
FB-2.6 (45%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 6 | 19 | 79 | 23 | 12 | 0 | 86% | 2.7 | 21.4% | 18.8% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 2.89 | 3.67 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 6 | 19 | 79 | 23 | 12 | 0 | 86% | 2.7 | 29.1% | 15.2% | 13.9% | 0.0% | 2.89 | 2.56 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 24 | 24 | 105 | 432 | 99 | 39 | 13 | 100% | 4.4 | 19.3% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 3.60 | 4.49 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 24 | 24 | 105 | 432 | 99 | 39 | 13 | 100% | 4.4 | 22.9% | 9.0% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 3.60 | 3.94 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 6 | 6 | 24 | 115 | 24 | 13 | 3 | 100% | 3.9 | 18.4% | 11.9% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 6.46 | 5.32 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 6 | 6 | 24 | 115 | 24 | 13 | 3 | 100% | 3.9 | 20.9% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 6.46 | 4.37 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 11 | 11 | 39 | 170 | 37 | 10 | 10 | 100% | 3.6 | 9.8% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 7.3% | 6.18 | 7.19 | -1.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 53 | 28 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 4.72 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TOR | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 29 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 4.72 | 5.02 | -0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 104 | 444 | 90 | 38 | 19 | — | — | 20.3% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 4.3% | 5.27 | 5.84 | -0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 36 | 150 | 29 | 16 | 5 | — | — | 19.4% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 4.72 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 23 | 23 | 137 | 578 | 118 | 58 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.78 | 4.87 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 22 | 22 | 135 | 570 | 117 | 57 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.5% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 4.81 | 4.86 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 22 | 22 | 131 | 553 | 113 | 55 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 4.86 | 4.92 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 21 | 21 | 125 | 528 | 105 | 54 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.9% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 4.97 | 5.06 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 20 | 20 | 118 | 496 | 95 | 52 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.2% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 3.8% | 5.15 | 5.27 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 17 | 17 | 100 | 422 | 86 | 42 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.78 | 4.87 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 18 | 18 | 110 | 464 | 95 | 46 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.5% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 4.81 | 4.86 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 19 | 19 | 113 | 477 | 97 | 48 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 4.86 | 4.92 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 19 | 19 | 112 | 473 | 94 | 48 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.9% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 4.97 | 5.06 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 18 | 18 | 107 | 452 | 87 | 47 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.2% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 3.8% | 5.15 | 5.27 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 102 | 102 | 589 | 2493 | 499 | 250 | 91 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 3.6% | 4.94 | 4.67 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 846 | 169 | 85 | 31 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 3.6% | 4.94 | 4.67 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 48 | 47 | 187 | 796 | 138 | 83 | 31 | 98% | 3.9 | 17.3% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 4.44 | 5.10 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 50 | 200 | 853 | 148 | 89 | 33 | 98% | 3.9 | 17.3% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 4.44 | 5.10 | +0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Bloss (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.02 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 3.4% | — | 4.88 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 403 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Nic Swanson R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.79 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 3.3% | .286 | 5.16 | 19.9% | 6.6% | 108 | +0.37 | 4.09 | 414 | 84 |
| Trent Sellers R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.46 | 21.8% | 13.3% | 2.8% | .290 | 5.09 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 58 | +0.63 | 3.39 | 236 | 81 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 5.06 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.03 | 4.10 | 218 | 80 |
| Landon Knack R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.39 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.65 | 21.4% | 11.7% | 382 | +0.26 | 3.67 | 509 | 80 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 79 |
| Ricky Salinas R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.22 | 20.9% | 10.3% | 4.7% | .335 | 5.81 | 14.3% | -0.8% | 71 | +0.59 | 4.87 | 274 | 79 |
| Dylan Burns R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.86 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.06 | 120 | 79 |
| Austin Gordon R 2024 · 5.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.46 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 4.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.70 | 159 | 79 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 77 |
| J.P. France R 2025 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 77 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 77 |
| Brett Daniels R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 22.3% | 13.0% | 3.1% | .357 | 4.75 | 18.9% | 2.6% | 77 | +0.20 | 3.98 | 270 | 77 |
| Kade McClure R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.23 | 21.0% | 8.4% | 3.4% | .329 | 4.05 | 19.4% | 11.2% | 110 | -0.18 | 3.55 | 388 | 77 |
| Trace Bright R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.42 | 21.2% | 13.6% | 4.3% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 373 | 77 |
| Chase Solesky R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.73 | 15.2% | 11.2% | 2.7% | .322 | 4.57 | 16.0% | 7.7% | 241 | -0.16 | 4.08 | 536 | 77 |
| K.C. Hunt R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.05 | 19.3% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .287 | 7.08 | 12.2% | -7.5% | 30 | +3.03 | 2.65 | 253 | 76 |
| Angel Araiza R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .287 | 3.95 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.60 | 3.53 | 289 | 76 |
| Trenton Toplikar R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.46 | 16.4% | 9.3% | 4.7% | .325 | 6.04 | 16.9% | 4.2% | 30 | +0.58 | 4.30 | 232 | 76 |
| Jarrod Cande R 2025 · 5.66 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.66 | 16.7% | 11.0% | 4.7% | .256 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.37 | 292 | 76 |
| Johendí Jiminian R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.42 | 14.0% | 11.4% | 3.8% | .282 | 4.43 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 94 | -0.99 | 3.93 | 419 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 122 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 1.35 | 4.89 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |