Edgar Colon

P Daytona Tortugas

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs A peak 0.7 · 2031

Overview

APROSPECT

Scout OFP47ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	MIX2 levels	16	13	46	5.09	5.14	16.8%	15.9%	—	K 11.3% · BB 18.1% · FIP 6.19
2026	20	MIX2 levels	17	16	65	5.82	4.55	28.1%	11.6%	—	K 21.0% · BB 13.6% · FIP 5.94
2027PROJ	21	MLBCIN	8	8	42	5.88	5.88	20.0%	17.6%	-0.5
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBCIN	5	5	30	5.57	5.46	21.5%	15.7%	-0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBCIN	8	8	46	5.32	5.20	22.4%	14.5%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff51Control35Command20FB velo59

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 4, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 87%

CompsLuis Hernandez (age 21) · Holt Jones (age 23) · Ryan Harvey (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.88

FIP5.88

K%20.0%

BB%17.6%

K-BB%2.4%

Proj IP42

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL3035

CMD2020

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	13	46	208	35	33	5	81%	2.9	11.3%	18.1%	-6.7%	3.2%	5.09	6.19	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	13	46	208	35	33	5	81%	2.9	11.3%	18.1%	-6.7%	3.2%	5.09	6.19	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	13	46	208	35	33	5	81%	2.9	16.8%	15.9%	1.0%	2.4%	5.09	5.14	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	65	292	82	34	12	94%	3.8	21.0%	13.6%	7.4%	5.3%	5.82	5.94	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	65	292	82	34	12	94%	3.8	21.0%	13.6%	7.4%	5.3%	5.82	5.94	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	16	65	292	82	34	12	94%	3.8	28.1%	11.6%	16.4%	4.1%	5.82	4.55	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	CIN	8	8	42	177	36	31	6	100%	5.2	20.0%	17.6%	2.4%	3.4%	5.88	5.88	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	61	259	56	41	9	100%	5.6	21.5%	15.7%	5.8%	3.3%	5.57	5.46	-0.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	64	269	60	39	9	100%	5.3	22.4%	14.5%	7.9%	3.2%	5.32	5.20	-0.2
2030	24	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	65	276	63	38	9	100%	5.4	23.0%	13.8%	9.2%	3.2%	5.13	5.04	-0.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	66	279	65	37	9	100%	6.0	23.4%	13.4%	9.9%	3.2%	5.01	4.95	-0.0
2032	26	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	66	279	66	37	9	100%	6.0	23.5%	13.4%	10.2%	3.2%	4.96	4.93	-0.0
2033	27	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	65	275	65	37	9	100%	5.9	23.5%	13.5%	10.1%	3.2%	4.96	4.96	-0.0
2034	28	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	63	266	62	36	9	100%	5.7	23.4%	13.6%	9.8%	3.3%	5.01	5.05	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	CIN	5	5	30	127	27	20	4	100%	6.0	21.5%	15.7%	5.8%	3.3%	5.57	5.46	-0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	46	194	43	28	6	100%	5.8	22.4%	14.5%	7.9%	3.2%	5.32	5.20	-0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	54	228	52	31	7	100%	5.4	23.0%	13.8%	9.2%	3.2%	5.13	5.04	-0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	58	245	57	33	8	100%	5.8	23.4%	13.4%	9.9%	3.2%	5.01	4.95	-0.0
2032	26	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	60	253	60	34	8	100%	6.0	23.5%	13.4%	10.2%	3.2%	4.96	4.93	-0.0
2033	27	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	60	253	60	34	8	100%	6.0	23.5%	13.5%	10.1%	3.2%	4.96	4.96	-0.0
2034	28	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	59	249	58	34	8	100%	5.9	23.4%	13.6%	9.8%	3.3%	5.01	5.05	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	64	369	1557	360	215	50	100%	5.8	23.1%	13.8%	9.3%	3.2%	5.10	4.67	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	195	117	27	100%	5.7	23.1%	13.8%	9.3%	3.2%	5.10	4.67	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		33	29	111	500	85	77	22	88%	3.4	17.0%	15.5%	1.5%	4.4%	5.51	6.05	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	52	200	901	153	139	40	88%	3.4	17.0%	15.5%	1.5%	4.4%	5.51	6.05	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Edgar Colon (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.88	20.0%	17.6%	3.4%	—	5.23	22.3%	7.6%	190	-0.65	—	—	—
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	84
Holt Jones R 2022 · 6.63 FIP	23	SP	6.63	17.9%	19.5%	4.7%	.296	4.64	18.4%	0.8%	147	-1.99	4.21	254	83
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	82
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.38	205	82
Trevor Bauer R 2012 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP	4.79	22.1%	16.9%	2.6%	.267	4.08	21.8%	11.8%	346	-0.71	2.16	1,298	82
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	3.91	23.8%	12.0%	201	-1.65	3.54	273	82
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.39	20.2%	8.6%	215	-1.21	4.29	257	82
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	82
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.62	17.1%	7.4%	343	-0.97	4.16	409	82
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	81
Jefferson Jean R 2024 · 6.45 FIP	19	SP-	6.45	18.3%	21.5%	4.0%	.311	4.79	16.9%	-0.3%	87	-1.66	4.79	132	81
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	81
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	81
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	80
Luke Albright R 2021 · 5.77 FIP	21	SP	5.77	16.8%	13.4%	4.4%	.295	5.10	19.4%	5.5%	269	-0.67	4.02	329	80
Chen-Wei Lin R 2023 · 6.48 FIP	21	SP	6.48	21.3%	22.0%	4.4%	.379	3.81	20.5%	8.4%	257	-2.67	3.05	269	80
Noble Meyer R 2024 · 5.82 FIP	19	SP	5.82	20.0%	20.0%	3.4%	.198	4.31	18.7%	3.9%	65	-1.51	4.31	139	80
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	80
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	79
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	62	22.7%	14.3%	1.25	5.20
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*